Thailand looking shaky

[soalbundy]

The problem with Thailand is internal, the last two coups have wrecked the place, too much interference by unknowledgeable people meddling in things that they simply do not understand, such as politics, the economy and ordinary people.

As for the Baht, the Bank of Thailand is artificially keeping it high. The government believe that a weaker Baht would suggest weakness instead of thinking that a depreciation of the Baht would help boost exports etc.

That's just not true; they don't have the financial resources to keep it artificially high.

158 billion dollars in FX last time i read.

[aussieinthailand]

I do believe the original post is total nonsense ! People are making much more than they were years ago, easily witnessed by the fact that just about everyone is well dressed with designer jeans (why someone would pay extra for a pair of jeans covered with holes completely evades me), has an extremely flashy smartphone, and the country is as stable as it has ever been. When I first came here waitresses in Bangkok were making 35 Baht a day ! Canberra obviously hasn,t got a clue what it is talking about

Well reckon that might just be where you spend most of your time, in the cities yeah, and tourist areas ok, but go too the country or small villages my friend and not to many wearing "designer jeans" and most are still wearing sarong's and towels on their heads, gum boots, balaclava's, and full cover cloths and gloves while it's 38 degrees outside on a construction sight on rice paddy sugar cane field.

And the country is not as stable as it has ever been, you working as a junta PR guy or what??? When a government is censoring it's people to higher levels in years, and detains students for calling for transparent investigations, and criminalizes clicking the like button on FB/ sharing video's, criticizing the government,etc,etc,etc.

Canberra quite often seems to not have a clue, but I think this time they are right on the mark......

[kimamey]

The problem with Thailand is internal, the last two coups have wrecked the place, too much interference by unknowledgeable people meddling in things that they simply do not understand, such as politics, the economy and ordinary people.

As for the Baht, the Bank of Thailand is artificially keeping it high. The government believe that a weaker Baht would suggest weakness instead of thinking that a depreciation of the Baht would help boost exports etc.

I would partly agree with your first point.

The coup didn't cause problems it stopped a government which had the opportunity to improve things for the people but got sidetracked because it was controlled by someone who was more interred in his amnesty than anything else. Without that it may well have worked, eventually. Things like the rice scheme which whilst the chance to help the rice farmers was a good one it was badly implemented and too expensive because it seemed to be more about gaining votes. In the short term it wouldn't work but the PTP government wanted to reduce the costs substantially but were prevented by threats of protests by some farmers. Longer term it may well have been brought under control once the governments supporters could be shown the problems. Certainly there would have been pain but in the end maybe it would have been with it. As it is that won't happen and the opposition and army will be blamed.

The coup stopped Thaksin's control and ended the protests which started with genuine concerns about corruption and the misuse of Thailand's democratic system but ended up being used as cover for violence and disruption. The trouble is it too has got sidetracked as it's become more obsessed with protecting its power, stopping criticism of its actions and attacking it's opponents. The military are good at exerting control but they aren't politicions. They should have brought in moderates from both sides early on to help with reforms.

I'm not sure Thaksin is actually that popular amongst PTP supporters. It was noticeable a few years back in my address that a lot of the Thaksin calendars started to disappear. I think his popularity is based on the view that he seemed to bring quick solutions and improvements for people. The 300 baht minimum wage is a good example. Why wouldn't those on low incomes vote for that? The trouble is that's what it was focused on. There was no long term plan for improvements. It only applied to Thais sound like it's intended to help them and not foreign migrants. The trouble is of course companies just employed cheap foreign migrants. It was noticeable in restaurants. The food was served by young people from Vietnam, Cambodia ect but when you paid the bill and gave a tip it was to a Thai. I beloved several companies moved to border areas to be nearer the cheap labour. Some factories just increased the hours and cut the work force. As far as I know there was no real enforcement of the rules either.

Having said that I'm sure there are those amongst the PTP MPs who want to do the right thing and its those the army needs to bring in.

I don't know all the MPs from both sides but from the Democrats I think Abhisit, despite not being perfect has political experience and knowledge of how things work outside the kingdom.

The PTP side is more difficult but surprisingly Yingluck might have been a possibility. There's no doubt that she was never going to be anything other than a fake PM. She had no experience and out of all the PTP MPs, even without the ones who were barred there must have been someone better. Thaksin must have felt his control want that God to have put her forward as someone who wouldn't have the ability to challenge him. I can only assume she agreed as from what I can tell she's never had a proper job and the ones she has had have come from her brother. She does have somethings going for her though. She's the sort of person who will be accepted and not cause offence. It may be sexist but she's not that bad looking. Those 2 qualities are probably part of the reason Thaksin used her as PM. She's also able to work across the boundaries between the opposing parties if she's given the chance. During the floods she and Abhisit appeared together and at least have the impression that she wanted to work to help the country rather than herself. It was others in her party that showed more self interest. Drying the protests 2 years ago when Abhisit put forward proposals to end the conflict it was Yingluck who suggested that they should at least be looked at as a possible starting point for some agreement. That never happened. I don't know why but my guess I'd that Thaksin didn't want compromise.

Ultimately it's politicians who will have to make this work and those who want it to work for the country who may be small in number but they will exist are the ones The current PM should be working with.

[trogers]

I do believe the original post is total nonsense ! People are making much more than they were years ago, easily witnessed by the fact that just about everyone is well dressed with designer jeans (why someone would pay extra for a pair of jeans covered with holes completely evades me), has an extremely flashy smartphone, and the country is as stable as it has ever been. When I first came here waitresses in Bangkok were making 35 Baht a day ! Canberra obviously hasn,t got a clue what it is talking about

Well reckon that might just be where you spend most of your time, in the cities yeah, and tourist areas ok, but go too the country or small villages my friend and not to many wearing "designer jeans" and most are still wearing sarong's and towels on their heads, gum boots, balaclava's, and full cover cloths and gloves while it's 38 degrees outside on a construction sight on rice paddy sugar cane field.

And the country is not as stable as it has ever been, you working as a junta PR guy or what??? When a government is censoring it's people to higher levels in years, and detains students for calling for transparent investigations, and criminalizes clicking the like button on FB/ sharing video's, criticizing the government,etc,etc,etc.

Canberra quite often seems to not have a clue, but I think this time they are right on the mark......

Those wearing sarongs and loin cloths can only see a change in their lives when they ask about the worth of a man breaking rocks and stones in the Sahara...

[tukkytuktuk]

True Corp is looking shaky this week. Could the Hong Kong dollar pegged against the us dollar cause another Asian Financial Crisis like the one before? Are low oil prices hurting Chinese stocks and slowing down their growth?

Edited February 2, 2016 by tukkytuktuk

[trogers]

True Corp is looking shaky this week. Could the Hong Kong dollar pegged against the us dollar cause another Asian Financial Crisis like the one before? Are low oil prices hurting Chinese stocks and slowing down their growth?

Not in countries with strong reserves and low interest rates. The previous crisis saw double digits interest rates and dwindling reserves for 6-9 months before the crisis erupted.

[metisdead]

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[sebastion]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It doesn't float like most currencies its fixed, can you imagine the buy up by foreign capital?

That doesn't make any sense. Also, what do you think it's fixed to?

Thailand is sitting on a lot of gold reserves. That's what keeps the currency high.

Also don't forget that the black economy of Thailand is 100x bigger than the actual economy.

[eaglesflight]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It doesn't float like most currencies its fixed, can you imagine the buy up by foreign capital?

That doesn't make any sense. Also, what do you think it's fixed to?

Comments made by the young who were totters during the Tom Yum Kung crisis...

Comments made by people who don't understand that the result of the crisis was the floating of the baht because the Thai government couldn't afford to maintain its peg to the USD any longer.....

[eaglesflight]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It doesn't float like most currencies its fixed, can you imagine the buy up by foreign capital?

That doesn't make any sense. Also, what do you think it's fixed to?

Thailand is sitting on a lot of gold reserves. That's what keeps the currency high.

Also don't forget that the black economy of Thailand is 100x bigger than the actual economy.

Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Algeria, the United Kingdom and Venezuela: just some of the countries with more gold reserves than Thailand - how does that fit into your theory?

[sebastion]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It doesn't float like most currencies its fixed, can you imagine the buy up by foreign capital?

That doesn't make any sense. Also, what do you think it's fixed to?

Thailand is sitting on a lot of gold reserves. That's what keeps the currency high.

Also don't forget that the black economy of Thailand is 100x bigger than the actual economy.

Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Algeria, the United Kingdom and Venezuela: just some of the countries with more gold reserves than Thailand - how does that fit into your theory?

Care to back that up with something other than wikipedia?

[eaglesflight]

How come the baht holds up so well?

It doesn't float like most currencies its fixed, can you imagine the buy up by foreign capital?

That doesn't make any sense. Also, what do you think it's fixed to?

Thailand is sitting on a lot of gold reserves. That's what keeps the currency high.

Also don't forget that the black economy of Thailand is 100x bigger than the actual economy.

Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Algeria, the United Kingdom and Venezuela: just some of the countries with more gold reserves than Thailand - how does that fit into your theory?

Care to back that up with something other than wikipedia?

The figures on the Wikipedia article are taken from the World Gold Council. If that is not a good enough source for you, I suggest you do your own research. Alternatively you could have the good grace to admit that you know nothing about foreign exchange, in common with most posters on Thai Visa.

[MJP]

I'm surprised the UK has any gold reserves, perhaps they're referring to what's available in the "jewellery" section of an Argos catalogue.

Venezuela is in total economic collapse and about to default.

[trogers]

I'm surprised the UK has any gold reserves, perhaps they're referring to what's available in the "jewellery" section of an Argos catalogue.

Venezuela is in total economic collapse and about to default.

Those gold reserves are still buried under the mountains...?

[MJP]

I'm surprised the UK has any gold reserves, perhaps they're referring to what's available in the "jewellery" section of an Argos catalogue.

Venezuela is in total economic collapse and about to default.

Those gold reserves are still buried under the mountains...?

Gold under Mount Snowdon? I always knew Wales would be the richest place on the planet someday.

Brazil, Puerto Rico and Venezuela, South America is looking very dodgy right now, not just economically either these countries have some of the highest violent crime/murder rates in the World.

Trogers, why is the World such an unstable dump?

Edited February 4, 2016 by MJP

[trogers]

I'm surprised the UK has any gold reserves, perhaps they're referring to what's available in the "jewellery" section of an Argos catalogue.

Venezuela is in total economic collapse and about to default.

Those gold reserves are still buried under the mountains...?

Gold under Mount Snowdon? I always knew Wales would be the richest place on the planet someday.

Brazil, Puerto Rico and Venezuela, South America is looking very dodgy right now, not just economically either these countries have some of the highest violent crime/murder rates in the World.

Trogers, why is the World such an unstable dump?

The approaching end of days...

[hawker9000]

How come the baht holds up so well?

I personally think it's because the Thai central bank is quite adept with its interventions. Were the baht a more internationally significant currency, I don't think that would be possible. I expect the BoT sets a range it deems in the national interest, and works methodically with interventions to maintain the baht within that range and to discourage speculators. It can't stand against a fundamental loss of value indefinitely, but seems to be able to control volatility and even overcome short-term trends.

Just my guess. I think there are others here with a much better understanding of the BoT and its currency market ops than mine.