.png.3b3332cc2256ad0edbc2fe9404feeef0.png.8488ab72b8bb2e508209bfe3211b6e08.png)
-
Recently Browsing 0 members
- No registered users viewing this page.
-
Topics
-
-
Popular Contributors
-
1
-
2
.thumb.jpeg.d2d19a66404642fd9ff62d6262fd153e.jpeg)
-
3
-
4
-
5
-
-
Latest posts...
-
251
Could Trump's plan fail in a spectacular fashion?
Do you not know the distinction between 'falling costs' and 'plummeting costs'? 🤣 I have no objection to the development of battery storage and BEVs, but they are still too expensive for me. -
251
Could Trump's plan fail in a spectacular fashion?
Not a student of history, I suspect. There are such things as generational tops, like US 1929 and Japan 1989. You can even go back in time---thanks to the internet---and see what those "experts" called economists said about both markets, not only before the collapse happened, but in their initial stages. Economists are all named Rosey Scenario, with their worst case being "a collapse is a buying opportunity". Often that is true, not not always. It's usually after the fact absurdities become visible. Joseph Kennedy remarked about some of the market absurdities in 1929, and an economist spoke of "a permanently high plateau" (dead wrong). In Japan, my favorite absurdity was that a woman in Osaka, who owned a small, 6-table sushi restaurant, borrowed over $1 billion from Industrial Bank of Japan to "buy stocks the gods told me to buy" (her words on her loan application). She bought her last deity-recommended stocks at Nikkei 38,915.87. Yes, she defaulted. Many banks in Japan were taken down by similar absurdities. The US has its absurdities hidden behind the curtain still. Federal debt is massive, but until the current POTUS decided to alienate the marginal buyers of that debt PLUS have folks lose confidence in the markets and rule of law, the debt was manageable. Nobody ever expects sovereign debt to be repaid, but so long as it is serviced, even higher levels are sustainable. Japan Nat Debt to GDP dwarfs the US, but the yen is suddenly a safe haven currency (or maybe we're just seeing the unwinding of the carry trade). POTUS once remarked that if needed, he would default on foreign-owned US Treasuries, He said it live on CNBC. That is now being remembered, as he utters absurdities about "50% tariffs on Canada, unless they agree to become the 51st State". The various asset classes have done well over the last decade----from equities to RE to bonds to crypto---because Central Banks have been printing 24/7. Also, everybody levered up, whether corporates or derivative traders or crypto "investors". Market falls are exacerbated by leverage being unwound. Oh, and then there's that little thing called AI, which is going to obviate both unskilled and even much skilled labor. In the 19th Century, when farm labor was obviated, displaced workers had the Industrial Revolution ready to absorb them. Physical labor was taken over by factories. AI is going to obviate intellectual labor. Now add up all the corporate and consumer debt, look at the funding of LT assets with shorter term money by US banks, the $960 trillion nominal value of derivatives, $280 trillion in visible worldwide debt in a $60 trillion world economy, and a POTUS doing his best impression of Misters Smoot and Hawley, and the odds of a generational top in equities rise. It almost makes one reach for that cliche "Perfect Storm". If you're 18, wealthy, and don't need the money, go ahead and keep buying dips. Maybe when you're 50 you'll break even. What's the past tense of break? Oh yea, broke. If you're already 50, you may pass that way. Yes, there are always Cassandras, but if you know the tale, you know Cassandra turned out right. -
41
Nigerian Men Arrested for Drifting: Sang to Police to Evade Arrest - video
Is singing to the police a code word for paying them? -
29
7-11 and Plastic bags...What about the Turtles and Global Warming?
CP wised up that people require plastic bags to shop at 7-11..... Profits over turtles..... -
21
The rest of the year is just 1 long day
The NY times is behind a paywall and is not a reputable source. For those of you suffering from Trump, you can try Thorazine. -
3
Luxury Car Driver Apologises After Slapping Incident With Teen Biker
I could understand the driver's reaction. However, a bit more self control would have been advised.
-
-
Popular in The Pub
-
-
.thumb.jpg.9bcb39176551b2c1639c71549f3782b4.jpg)
Recommended Posts