Thai exports remain sluggish for next few years



BANGKOK: -- Thailand's exports will remain sluggish for the next few years due to falling farm prices and global economic slowdown.

These were what economic gurus viewed at a seminar held during the annual meeting organized by the Thai National Shippers Council.

Former deputy prime mnister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula stated that Thailand’s exports will continue to contract which correlates with other global exporting nations.

He said that this was mainly due to falling global agricultural prices.

Another factor that has not helped the country’s economy is the government’s comparatively low tax collection rates which are below 17 – 18 % of GDP.

This in turn directly affects the national budget which could undermine funds for the construction of key infrastructure projects, he said..

Meanwhile former energy minister Narongchai Akaraserani commented that the reason that Thailand’s exports were faltering was due to the downturn in the global economy.

However he viewed that there was a strong potential for the country’s exports to experience positive growth.

This can be done by taking opportunity of free trade agreements to increase demand for Thai goods, he said.

Furthermore, local producers should focus on developing more modern and specialized products and become more engaged in digital marketing which will help to increase exports in no small degree, he added.

Chairman of the Thailand Development Research Institute, Somkiat Tangkitwanich said Thailand’s exports for the next 2 – 3 years will continue to contract as a result of the slow recovery of the global economy.

He said that tax incentive programs to increase domestic spending was not a prudent move as it will expose the country to risks in the consequence future.

What is most frightening, he said is that within the next five year period Thailand could become the slowest growing economy in Southeast Asia.

He advised the government to create new opportunities by increased involvement in the CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) countries as well as searching for new markets outside of existing ones.

But the Kasikorn Bank Research Center deputy managing director Ms Pimlawan Mahaj-Chariyawong said that the center still expects the national GDP to grow by at least 3 %.

She, however, cautioned that it was possible that a revision to lower this projection could still be made in June of this year depending on the export outlook.

If exports continue to falter then it is highly likely that the aforementioned figure will be reduced.

Overall, official estimates for Thailand’s economic growth for the first and second quarters has been pegged at 2.8% due to its slow recovery as a consequence of the serious drought crisis and the fall in global agricultural prices.

This will directly cause the national GDP to contract by between 0.4 – 0.6%.

Hopes are that the economy will rebound during the latter part of the year when the mid-year budget of 56.238 billion baht is released, she said.

Furthermore, the third economic stimulus package will have been introduced by then which could possibly raise the national GDP by at least 0.9 – 1.1%.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/content/158766


-- Thai PBS 2016-04-08

If not for the Japanese and American companies the only things they would have to export would be rice, shrimps, and bar girls!

Edited April 8, 201610 yr by thai3

you forget some sugar and rubber

Lower the value of the Bhat, unless tourism is your main income.

At least it's an honest assessment. A rare find...

With sluggish exports the Thai GDP will sag accordingly and realistically go to about 2.8%. Which countries want to invest in or buy from a government with a military rule which, at their choosing, can confiscate money and property at a whim? By comparison Vietnam's GDP will probably reach 7%.

within the next five year period Thailand could become the slowest growing economy in Southeast Asia

Already the slowest growing economy in the ASEAN.

But I doubt Thailand's GDP growth rate will fall below the Maritime Southeast countries of East Timor, Brunei or Christmas Island.

So some good news after all.

If not for the Japanese and American companies the only things they would have to export would be rice, shrimps, and bar girls!

And if this military rule fiasco keeps up, the Thai might find themselves looking for jobs in the newly democratic Myanmar.

In that country it took a few decades for the military to realize, they could no longer make money under authoritarian rule. The foreigners will not support them, because it is too risky to do business. All these new submarines, high salaries and fancy weapons for military spending are a direct result of democratic rule. By the time the 20 year "reform " is in place, thailands economy could possibly be in tatters.

40 Baht to the Buck! Yes!

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With sluggish exports the Thai GDP will sag accordingly and realistically go to about 2.8%. Which countries want to invest in or buy from a government with a military rule which, at their choosing, can confiscate money and property at a whim? By comparison Vietnam's GDP will probably reach 7%.

Maybe the NCPO should adopt the Vietnam 'political' system as that is acceptable by the 'free' West ?

With sluggish exports the Thai GDP will sag accordingly and realistically go to about 2.8%. Which countries want to invest in or buy from a government with a military rule which, at their choosing, can confiscate money and property at a whim? By comparison Vietnam's GDP will probably reach 7%.

Maybe the NCPO should adopt the Vietnam 'political' system as that is acceptable by the 'free' West ?

The West accepts whatever is convenient for them at the time. Last I checked, Vietnam was still a totalitarian one-party state.

With sluggish exports the Thai GDP will sag accordingly and realistically go to about 2.8%. Which countries want to invest in or buy from a government with a military rule which, at their choosing, can confiscate money and property at a whim? By comparison Vietnam's GDP will probably reach 7%.

Maybe the NCPO should adopt the Vietnam 'political' system as that is acceptable by the 'free' West ?

Not possible.

Under a communist system the military pledges its allegiance to the Communist Party, effectively putting the military under civilian political control - just not a democratically elected civilian control nor to any constitution. As it is, the Thai military has been since 1933 independently soveriegn and holds itself superior through absolute power to the Thai people's soveriegnty and their constitutions.

The West may be more acceptable to a communist government than a generic dictatorship so far as its military behavior is formulated and accountable to political control. Similar to that of the West so that military behavior is predictable and manageable. That is a necessity in foreign political relationships.

With sluggish exports the Thai GDP will sag accordingly and realistically go to about 2.8%. Which countries want to invest in or buy from a government with a military rule which, at their choosing, can confiscate money and property at a whim? By comparison Vietnam's GDP will probably reach 7%.

Maybe the NCPO should adopt the Vietnam 'political' system as that is acceptable by the 'free' West ?

Not possible.

Under a communist system the military pledges its allegiance to the Communist Party, effectively putting the military under civilian political control - just not a democratically elected civilian control nor to any constitution. As it is, the Thai military has been since 1933 independently soveriegn and holds itself superior through absolute power to the Thai people's soveriegnty and their constitutions.

The West may be more acceptable to a communist government than a generic dictatorship so far as its military behavior is formulated and accountable to political control. Similar to that of the West so that military behavior is predictable and manageable. That is a necessity in foreign political relationships.

Minor change, if I may. The "military under civilian political control" should be "military under communist party control"