US military units to stay for South China Sea patrols

[LawrenceChee]

It's interesting if TVF posters can dig up so much information about the deployment of the USA Navy

I know it annoys the hell out of the USA commanders they can never find the Chinese and Russians so forthcoming with this kind of information as they understand what military secrets are

Personally the USA military units can do whatever they want but they know realistically they are not in a position to checkmate the Chinese anymore

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

The Chinese won't fire the first volley and honestly they have enough to overwhelm the islands close by

The new strategy is to flood the enemies with people ....just watch how the EU is struggling with the current migrant crisis

On the next war path, send out the vessels loaded with Chinese citizens arriving in Seoul , Okinawa , Manila , Taiwan , Singapore

Unlike the movie saving private Ryan, you cannot gun down civilians ...be an interesting weapon and military tactic to overwhelm the ports blocking the passage of war ships with civilian vessels

They are building enough Panamax vessels to have that kind of resources

[Publicus]

It's interesting if TVF posters can dig up so much information about the deployment of the USA Navy

I know it annoys the hell out of the USA commanders they can never find the Chinese and Russians so forthcoming with this kind of information as they understand what military secrets are

Personally the USA military units can do whatever they want but they know realistically they are not in a position to checkmate the Chinese anymore

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

The Chinese won't fire the first volley and honestly they have enough to overwhelm the islands close by

The new strategy is to flood the enemies with people ....just watch how the EU is struggling with the current migrant crisis

On the next war path, send out the vessels loaded with Chinese citizens arriving in Seoul , Okinawa , Manila , Taiwan , Singapore

Unlike the movie saving private Ryan, you cannot gun down civilians ...be an interesting weapon and military tactic to overwhelm the ports blocking the passage of war ships with civilian vessels

They are building enough Panamax vessels to have that kind of resources

The new strategy is to flood the enemies with people ....just watch how the EU is struggling with the current migrant crisis

On the next war path, send out the vessels loaded with Chinese citizens arriving in Seoul , Okinawa , Manila , Taiwan , Singapore.

That is now being shut down in South America as the socialist pro-CCP regimes are collapsing, already collapsed in Argentina. The Brics fell and are smashed, gone, finished, kaput to include of course their pink elephant Development Bank. India has come out of the Brics collapse on our side. Brazil, Russia, China are all in a steady downward spiral.

Putin says he's aligned with CCP in the SCS and in the East Sea against Japan in the disputes over islands natural or artificial, nautical coastal territories, EEZ's but he's nowhere to be seen or found. A bit of pressure on Japan over islands disputed since WW 2 but not much else as Japan has just recently completed the shift of the mass of their self-defense forces from the North of their island country facing Russia to the South of it facing the CCP China.

Japan is donating coast guard vessels and small patrol craft to the Phils to help 'em deal with the CCP chasing off Filipino fishermen who've worked those waters for a couple of thousand years without anyone coming along from Bullyland to tell 'em to get out and not come back. The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force submarine Hakuryu this month visited the Phils and Sydney, the first time in each instance of a Japanese submarine entering a harbor in either country since WW 2. This is what the CCP Dictators in Beijing have done in their absolutist and arrogant belligerence and bellicosity throughout the region.

I'd posted concerning the fact that what may have appeared to some a hundred years ago as perhaps inscrutable is now well known, gets anticipated, predicted, countered, because the MO of the perps are in fact predictable. CCP Boyz in Beijing still think the old ways still work and are still unknown, undetectable, unstoppable. They are wrong and as we do plainly see they are not very swift.

The Middle Kingdom was always a delusion and the pathetic notions in Beijing of restoring it are even more pathetic. The dragon is after all a mythical figure.

[LawrenceChee]

I say again you can deploy whatever submarines , cutter crafts , destroyers you want ....the Chinese have a resource only the Indians can match and that is people and there is nothing maniac about using that if it can prevent more civilian deaths through the carpet bombing strategy of the USA

There is no stomach to fight civilians and you can surround them or do what you wish ...there will be no fleet commander of any country that will ram a boat filed with civilians into the waters

Once they arrived at your ports ....you have the real Hollywood movie zombie scenario ....what do you do with hundreds of thousands flooding your shores within days ?

Send Brad Pitt against them ?

The Chinese are not war mongerers and have no interest to start any war ; but they are no longer as dumb and naive to believe the western's friendly intent and rightly so now are securing the islands where their military forces will give them first strike options rather than wait for the west to build those and be closer to China in the event of a war.

There is nothing mythical about it ...the USA have a known history of being a interfering bully who enjoys being nosy and then bombing and then disappearing with no real solutions leaving the mess for a " democratically installed government to fix" for decades to come with more street bombs and less civilian peace

The Chinese have no interest to see that happening and is defending its rights to its way of life

[Publicus]

I say again you can deploy whatever submarines , cutter crafts , destroyers you want ....the Chinese have a resource only the Indians can match and that is people and there is nothing maniac about using that if it can prevent more civilian deaths through the carpet bombing strategy of the USA

There is no stomach to fight civilians and you can surround them or do what you wish ...there will be no fleet commander of any country that will ram a boat filed with civilians into the waters

Once they arrived at your ports ....you have the real Hollywood movie zombie scenario ....what do you do with hundreds of thousands flooding your shores within days ?

Send Brad Pitt against them ?

The Chinese are not war mongerers and have no interest to start any war ; but they are no longer as dumb and naive to believe the western's friendly intent and rightly so now are securing the islands where their military forces will give them first strike options rather than wait for the west to build those and be closer to China in the event of a war.

There is nothing mythical about it ...the USA have a known history of being a interfering bully who enjoys being nosy and then bombing and then disappearing with no real solutions leaving the mess for a " democratically installed government to fix" for decades to come with more street bombs and less civilian peace

The Chinese have no interest to see that happening and is defending its rights to its way of life

It all sounds awfully duplicitous and somewhat like a frantic bleating out of a long covert grand design. Youse guyz do indeed need to move your population off the fouled land, out of the hopelessly polluted air, away from the water that is irreversibly poisoned, but fouling and poisoning the peoples' minds with such vile tactics is not the way to proceed.

I put the first paragraph to the Google translator btw but it came back blank. It simply showed a container of koolaid (red).

Brad Pitt is one of our greatest soft culture assets thx. The Dictators in Beijing can't do anything with the soft power they so desperately try to emulate because they have no comprehension it emanates from the people, not from a clique of corrupt and cynical tyrants at the top. CCP China is indeed a vast cultural wasteland that is the sole creation of the Party which intends to inflict it on the world.

CCP has declared summarily and in the absolute that the South China Sea is their own private lake. Period. Nothing to discuss. It's strictly head down and charge forward.

So putting boatloads of civilian pretend refugees into the malevolent mix will be both a serious violation of international law and a callous and cynical, despicable CCP exploitation of human life. It would however reveal for all the world to see the vile nature of the CCP and its intents and purposes. It would be the act of desperate cowards who bellow and threaten but who will not fight.

What you speak of is in fact real and probable. A vile design revealed thx. So don't stop now or there plse thx. Tell us more...

[LawrenceChee]

If it's gets to war , sending volunteer refugees is a right of a communist government if it prevents more death of the remaining citizens ...it's not vile or evil as it saves lives of those remaining behind and prevents more collateral deaths

The Chinese have seen the barbaric acts of the USA commanders whose basic policy is supported by aircraft carpet bombing and artillery fires into civilian areas and then try to effect a surrender , as no ground troops are used to prevent political death at home

As for the violation of international law etc , head to the outlying villages from Hoi An & Hue and you will still see victims of Agent Orange used just 40 years ago and the USA have steadfastly refused to apologise for or provide medical care for.

The private sector donations continue to support victims and deformed children who are in their 30s but have intellectual abilities of a five year old in hospices / orphanages.

I have seen it for myself as I traveled there and volunteered financial assistance and wonder how do the pilots who dropped these bombs not think this was wrong irregardless of the war at the time set by the media propaganda against the "commies"

Another short plane trip away in Cambodia and Laos , the countryside remains littered by mines dropped by the USA forces against civilians during the war and now have not came back to clean up the mess and till today there continues to inflict pain to families of accidental stepping by civilians

This is real live atrocities and a disregard for intentional law just like the recent illegal war against Iraq. The Brits have the manners to apologise for it as they were misled by their trigger happy Bush Cousin

The CCP in this regard have no such esteem record in the recent 100 years to afflict such pain on its fellow citizens

[Rancid]

Interesting to see the enthusiasm of presumably US ex-military to make war on both Russia and China. The US has been struggling with pissant countries of late so not sure where that type of confidence comes from.

Seems the old maxim of not making war on two fronts no longer applies. What I've read suggests things may not go as planned, if they ever do. Let's hope we don't end up a smoking pile of irradiated rubble.

[55Jay]

Interesting to see the enthusiasm of presumably US ex-military to make war on both Russia and China. The US has been struggling with pissant countries of late so not sure where that type of confidence comes from.

Seems the old maxim of not making war on two fronts no longer applies. What I've read suggests things may not go as planned, if they ever do. Let's hope we don't end up a smoking pile of irradiated rubble.

Unfortunately, the US was engaged in follies elsewhere, and those who would seek to take advantage of the vacuum, revealed themselves.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Confronting them later will be dicier than calling them out now. Let's hope Publicus' take on "The CCP Boyz" is accurate, and everyone retreats to their respective corners.

[LawrenceChee]

Interesting to see the enthusiasm of presumably US ex-military to make war on both Russia and China. The US has been struggling with pissant countries of late so not sure where that type of confidence comes from.

Seems the old maxim of not making war on two fronts no longer applies. What I've read suggests things may not go as planned, if they ever do. Let's hope we don't end up a smoking pile of irradiated rubble.

Unfortunately, the US was engaged in follies elsewhere, and those who would seek to take advantage of the vacuum, revealed themselves.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Confronting them later will be dicier than calling them out now. Let's hope Publicus' take on "The CCP Boyz" is accurate, and everyone retreats to their respective corners.

The thing that keeps Publicus awake is that the CCP government is getting more intelligent and confident in the international arena and the USA Presidential folks have been fumbling and getting more lost in their foreign policy handling besides arming and bombing

China will not start a war ...it's not in their interests and they are not trigger happy in wasting money.

[Publicus]

If it's gets to war , sending volunteer refugees is a right of a communist government if it prevents more death of the remaining citizens ...it's not vile or evil as it saves lives of those remaining behind and prevents more collateral deaths

The Chinese have seen the barbaric acts of the USA commanders whose basic policy is supported by aircraft carpet bombing and artillery fires into civilian areas and then try to effect a surrender , as no ground troops are used to prevent political death at home

As for the violation of international law etc , head to the outlying villages from Hoi An & Hue and you will still see victims of Agent Orange used just 40 years ago and the USA have steadfastly refused to apologise for or provide medical care for.

The private sector donations continue to support victims and deformed children who are in their 30s but have intellectual abilities of a five year old in hospices / orphanages.

I have seen it for myself as I traveled there and volunteered financial assistance and wonder how do the pilots who dropped these bombs not think this was wrong irregardless of the war at the time set by the media propaganda against the "commies"

Another short plane trip away in Cambodia and Laos , the countryside remains littered by mines dropped by the USA forces against civilians during the war and now have not came back to clean up the mess and till today there continues to inflict pain to families of accidental stepping by civilians

This is real live atrocities and a disregard for intentional law just like the recent illegal war against Iraq. The Brits have the manners to apologise for it as they were misled by their trigger happy Bush Cousin

The CCP in this regard have no such esteem record in the recent 100 years to afflict such pain on its fellow citizens

Criticise CCP and they and their Boyz holler out in attack, attack, attack. Try in vain to get the focus on the other guy.

CCP admits to nothing, CCP concedes nothing, CCP has nothing to reconsider or to reflect on. There is nothing to change and there is nothing to discuss.

Critiques of the CCP are not accepted. There is nothing wrong with them. CCP is right, the world is wrong. It is absolute. Period.

This is precisely why the South China Sea will not go well for them.

Dr Su Hao, a professor of international relations at China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing, said: "China sees its actions in the South China Sea as legitimate in protecting its own sovereignty and integrity. China will not just change its behaviours or deployment plan simply because of the Americans." NEW YORK TIMES

SecDef Ashton Carter has completed his trip to this region after he'd cancelled the centerpiece, i.e., the months long scheduled visit to Beijing. This is because Sec Carter is up to here with hearing CCP diktats and demands concerning the SCS and the East Sea relative to Japan. Sec. Carter knows Beijing has only orders to issue to the US and to the region and that CCP have nothing to discuss. Unless CCP opens to discussion, discourse, negotiation, cooperation and mutuality, the direction of the course of events is unmistakable.

Looks also that with this prattle about putting civilians on ships into the mix, the CCP have taken or already had a page out of the extremist Muslim terrorist book of using civilians as human shields, civilians as hostages, as human fodder of its aggressions and belligerence. Looks like life in China remains as cheap as it always had been under the delusion of the Middle Kingdom.

[LawrenceChee]

It's strange in this regard when one says our viewpoints.... its get labelled as attacking the other countries in comments ?

I thought the USA stood for free speech or is that hollow crap too ?

The facts mentioned is not blaming or pushing the blame to USA but factual

Kerry the dimwit was in japan and refused to apologise too for a direct nuclear bombing of civilians in WWII

It seems the USA are the ones with a guilty soul and self belief in their politicians that their actions of dropping nuclear bombs , chemical agents and mines were all justified and correct

The CCP wants the south China seas and has the history to back it up ...people of modern days may not like what they are doing but then again a strong county has its rights to defence and with the history of how America has treated ASEAN they better be careful of thinking the yanks have a vested long term interest in ASEAN

I just think USA enjoy doing what they do best ...meddling in other countries politics and thinking they know best when in foreign matters they are often clueless

CHINA is protecting its rights to its territorial and not impeding trade

The US military units can continue to waste their money patrolling or what not but they know they cant do nothing here just like the russian jets that buzz past their warships and being cheeky

[LawrenceChee]

Unlike some posters the CCP is not absolute because they have moderates like myself who continue to engage the government and advise them what is right

But the Chinese are no pushover these days and want change at their own pace and not dictated by the west

The Tiananmen which is a dead dog subject of the human rights group have nothing much to talk about ...the CCP looked at it and thought that was dumb and never repeated it even with the violent protest in HK and showed the maturity but of course the critics will never let the CCP go on this one

That's shows maturity which clearly irks the western powers who enjoys using the Tiananmen as the sole reason to keep reminding Beijing they are not good enough for the international platform while lacking a self conscious to review what some of the western powers have done in recent years stinks of the same hypocrisy

[Publicus]

Interesting to see the enthusiasm of presumably US ex-military to make war on both Russia and China. The US has been struggling with pissant countries of late so not sure where that type of confidence comes from.

Seems the old maxim of not making war on two fronts no longer applies. What I've read suggests things may not go as planned, if they ever do. Let's hope we don't end up a smoking pile of irradiated rubble.

Unfortunately, the US was engaged in follies elsewhere, and those who would seek to take advantage of the vacuum, revealed themselves.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Confronting them later will be dicier than calling them out now. Let's hope Publicus' take on "The CCP Boyz" is accurate, and everyone retreats to their respective corners.

The thing that keeps Publicus awake is that the CCP government is getting more intelligent and confident in the international arena and the USA Presidential folks have been fumbling and getting more lost in their foreign policy handling besides arming and bombing

China will not start a war ...it's not in their interests and they are not trigger happy in wasting money.

It is fine to say China will not start a war and the reason is that the last thing CCP wants or needs is an actual war against the United States or Japan...or the two of us together. A win is one thing, but the assured defeat of the CCP is intolerable to them.

So yes, the last thing CCP want is a war. Trouble is CCP are delusional and therein lies the many great risks and the great danger.

History has taught us what a delusional dictatorship will do with its mass of sheeple people. CCP has been teaching for decades in its schools and daily in its party controlled media that the South China Sea is theirs unquestionably and absolutely and that CCP will deliver it to the CCP Chinese people. It cannot afford to back down in its irredentism and revanchism. Cannot. So CCP has approached it by commonly called "salami slicing," which is anyway an old Soviet Union trick that fooled no one because, as the United States learned during the cold war, two can slice salami, as the USN have been doing in the SCS and increasingly so. So have the Phils, Vietnam, India and also Indonesia which when it gets going takes a meat axe to salami (see below).

CCP do not want a war yet they are absolute in their summary and arbitrary assertions that the SCS is, in effect, a Chinese lake. It is also commonly recognised in the region and in the West that China is the autistic country, given its belligerence and bellicosity and complete disregard of the pending consequences of same.

More than $5 Trillion in global trade passes through the Sea. This includes oil and energy shipments from the ME to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Asean and also to Australia/NZ. SCS is an international waterway of the high seas. It will remain an international waterway despite the fact CCP make no guarantees as they seize control of disputed islands and create artificial islands on existing reefs along vital sea lanes that daily come within range of the CCP military being positioned throughout.

Now comes Scarborough Shoal of the Philippines which CCP will begin to move against any time now. CCP will very soon begin to implement its design to take control of the Shoal, its existing islands, construct new artificial islands and to militarise them both. This sinister project has a greater sense of urgency now due to the International Court of Arbitration which is expected within weeks to rule against the CCP in the SCS in response to the filing made by the Phils in 2013 with the support of the United States. CCP said last year it does not recognise the court, despite the fact Beijing is a signatory to the International Law of the Sea. CCP points to the caveat it attached to its signing saying Beijing does not have to abide by any ruling it does not like, which is characteristic of a Chinese agreement.

As these military buildups continue, there are already incidents of violence and further military intensification.

Last month, shortly after President Obama visited Argentina, the country's coast guard blasted and sank an ocean going CCP fishing boat that it caught fishing illegally in its coastal waters. After the CCP vessel refused to leave, the coast guard fired machine guns across the bow, which only infuriated the Chinese, who then pointed their ship at a coast guard cutter and rammed it. The Argentine cutter circled out and around to fire its cannon at the Chinese waterline to sink the vessel. The cutter recovered four CCP fishermen under arrest while another CCP fishing ship hauled 28 others out of the water.

Indonesia last year seized a 3000 ton CCP fishing vessel, loaded it with explosives and set it on fire (probably in hopes CCP in Beijing would see it). Last month a CCP fishing vessel was seized by the Indonesian navy but was broken loose from its tow by the ramming of a CCP escorting coast guard vessel.

Indonesia also last month positioned four special units and the German made Oerlikon anti-aircraft and air defense guided missile system and 20 navy ships at the Natuna islands chain in the SCS whose territorial waters fall within the bogus and absurd 9-dash line derived from the moon or some such Chinese place.

Bloomberg reported while also quoting the Indonesia defense minister....

The move is part of a military buildup on islands overlooking the South China Sea that will see a refurbished runway and a new port constructed, Ryamizard Ryacudu said in an interview on Thursday with Bloomberg News. It also involves the deployment of marines, air force special force units, an army battalion, three new frigates, a new radar system and drones, he said.

The stationing of five US made F-16 Fighting Falcons reflects a new level of Indonesian concern about territorial disputes in the South China Sea that are pitting Beijing against several of its Southeast Asian neighbors. Indonesia is not a claimant, but the clash with the Chinese coast guard last month over the detention of a Chinese fishing boat showed the potential for it to be drawn into conflict.

“Natuna is a door, if the door is not guarded then thieves will come inside,” said Ryacudu, a former army chief of staff.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-31/indonesia-to-deploy-f-16s-to-guard-its-south-china-sea-territory

March 31st the Vietnam coast guard seized a CCP refueling ship in its territorial waters as yet another country in the region has begun to express a zero tolerance of CCP aggressions, incursions, infringements in the SCS.

The Chinese ceased being inscrutable simply by the process of globalisation and the maturation of the West in dealing with 'em, aided by nations of the region who have been dealing with the Bully Nation and its fictitious dancing dragon for a couple of thousand years.

As Dan Cheng of the US Heritage Foundation puts it.....

China’s propaganda systems can usually keep up, but they’ve only worked effectively when there are only a few incidents to respond to, and when its adversaries don’t react too aggressively or don’t fire back too hard against its propaganda.

The real irony with the CCP’s attempted takeover of the South China Sea is that it inadvertently caused other nations in the region—even many that historically haven’t gotten along—to form an alliance against China.

The recent incidents have raised the bar to a level where China’s strategies may not be able to hold up. Its adversaries are no longer playing the soft game, and if China wants to keep pushing, the stakes may soon be too high.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/05/winning-without-fighting-chinese-legal-warfare

[Publicus]

Exit The Dragon.

Indonesia blows 41 foreign fishing boats to bits, including Chinese ship seized in South China Sea

›Asia›Southeast Asia

INDONESIA

Beijing voices concern over Indonesia’s blowing up of Chinese fishing boat

COMMENTS: 2

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/1805173/indonesia-blows-41-foreign-fishing-boats-bits

Edited April 18, 2016 by Publicus

[Publicus]

Unlike some posters the CCP is not absolute because they have moderates like myself who continue to engage the government and advise them what is right

But the Chinese are no pushover these days and want change at their own pace and not dictated by the west

The Tiananmen which is a dead dog subject of the human rights group have nothing much to talk about ...the CCP looked at it and thought that was dumb and never repeated it even with the violent protest in HK and showed the maturity but of course the critics will never let the CCP go on this one

That's shows maturity which clearly irks the western powers who enjoys using the Tiananmen as the sole reason to keep reminding Beijing they are not good enough for the international platform while lacking a self conscious to review what some of the western powers have done in recent years stinks of the same hypocrisy

The Tiananmen which is a dead dog subject of the human rights group have nothing much to talk about

This is the danger of the CCP.

CCP Chinese are never wrong, everyone else is never right.

They don't get it. Never have got it, never will. Attack the other guy, never admit or concede any wrong in themselves. After all, how could they be wrong.

This is the problem which makes the antagonisms over the SCS volatile, high risk, probable to escalate to a clash.

The terminology of the reference is crass and obliviously crude. Shameless, bold, unrelenting and unrepentant in the absolute. In the case of the CCP, there is no difference between the sinner and the sin. None.

Edited April 18, 2016 by Publicus

[LawrenceChee]

For a general idea on how the USA military interference annoys people , head to the airport and you will see the worst in disrespectful behaviour by those who are bestowed a little power - TSA Agents

They act as if they know it all about security , they bark at people with strong Instructions on what to do , in general hold up the lines with their inefficiencies and achieve little in national security except annoy international Travelers and showcasing the worst in American culture - Barking at people like its a God given right

This is how annoying the failed foreign policies are conducted with military inclusions but they have steadfastly refused to admit it

I have nothing against the forces having served in the military myself and know they have to take orders from the executive powers who are at times clueless and it will be the comedy show of the century if Americans vote to give the ultimate military powers to Trump

That would just showcase how dumb the entire system is , potentially entrusting nukes to an idiot like him who is probably the most trigger happy and disrespectful idiot ever known to have challenged the USA presidency as a right to placate his ego

Him and Kim will go head to head and rightly so China having one idiot on the backyard is trying to stop the other idiot from joining in the sandbox

In this case ....I think Trump will be the bigger idiot than Kim and we will have potentially 4 years of living hell as he travels around and makes a fool of himself with his racist speeches .

I hope he comes to Thailand for Songkran as I will invoke my sacred vow never to participate in this festival just to give him and his dumb hair a good soaking from the fire hose

Edited April 18, 2016 by LawrenceChee

[tonbridgebrit]

http://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/A-World-War-Has-Begun-Break-the-Silence-20160322-0022.html


John Pilger writes excellent stuff. I do have a smirk at how some Americans want to blast the Bush regime for invading Iraq, whilst at the same time, they want to bang America's present drum for war.
Let's get real here. Being a war monger is being a war monger. War against Iraq, war against Iran, war against China, it's all the same _____. It's absurd how the Washington cheerleaders want to blast the Bush war against Iraq (who on earth can support THAT war, you can't) but also want to cheer on the present aggression.

[tonbridgebrit]

Interesting to see the enthusiasm of presumably US ex-military to make war on both Russia and China. The US has been struggling with pissant countries of late so not sure where that type of confidence comes from.

Seems the old maxim of not making war on two fronts no longer applies. What I've read suggests things may not go as planned, if they ever do. Let's hope we don't end up a smoking pile of irradiated rubble.

God point, Rancid.

Some Americans want to bang the drum for war, go on and on about America's aircraft carriers and combat jets. But it's all just talk and hot air. America can't fight a war against Russia, that's because China will most probably join in with Russia. And there's no way America can take on Russia and China.

America is also fighting a war against the Arabs, in the Middle East, the so-called 'War on Terror'. Most of us know that the 'War on Terror' is nonsense.

But still, we can watch Washington's cheerleaders and plastic soldiers trott out their stuff to glorify America's milary hard-ware. It's not just the Republicans and mad neo-Conservatives who do this. Some of the Democrat supporters do the same.

[tonbridgebrit]

Washington, Washington, IF you're really wanting a confrontation with China, stop this nonsense posturing and play-acting that YOU are doing right now. Why don't you really hit China where it hurts ??

Okay, WalMart is importing billions of dollars of stuff that is made in China. How much stuff does WalMart import every quarter ? Every three months ? Washington, cut out all this acting tough against China, and do some REAL action. Go and tell WalMart to stop importing all this Chinese stuff. Go on, do it. Go and cripple China. Stop this nonsense muscular-posturing that YOU are doing in the South China Sea. As long as WalMart is packed with Chinese goods, well, you're making yourself look ridiculous.

[LawrenceChee]

Washington, Washington, IF you're really wanting a confrontation with China, stop this nonsense posturing and play-acting that YOU are doing right now. Why don't you really hit China where it hurts ??

Okay, WalMart is importing billions of dollars of stuff that is made in China. How much stuff does WalMart import every quarter ? Every three months ? Washington, cut out all this acting tough against China, and do some REAL action. Go and tell WalMart to stop importing all this Chinese stuff. Go on, do it. Go and cripple China. Stop this nonsense muscular-posturing that YOU are doing in the South China Sea. As long as WalMart is packed with Chinese goods, well, you're making yourself look ridiculous.

This is one thing I have been advising the Guangzhou government for years and now it's gaining more traction.

The pollution there in Dongguan is astounding , the corruption to keep it quiet is intense and the amount of corporate bs on workplace safety by more western brands is laughable as they exploit the labor forces there

I am vey happy to see in recent years the profits have gone down tremendously and some have consistently gone in bankruptcy as we do need that to break the cycle , I support the USA to close Walmart down in that aspect ...as the buying stops the production stops too although it would be naive to think Americans will suddenly go back into production and start buying items at realistic pricing to stop this modern day slavery

The bad news is those cheap factories are heading to Laos and Cambodia and that means the pollution comes closer to Thailand

[boomerangutang]

Maybe I'm getting crabbier as I get older, but dynamic action is needed by the US. Philippines is a friend of the US, but this build-up by China is bigger than any of the individual players.

The best case scenario would be a declaration of Marine Reserve status for the entire SC sea. Since Asians are incapable of those types of thoughts (everything for them is about amassing money and possessions), then the next best thing would be a preemptive strike (taking out all weapons, docks and troop installations) by the world's most advanced military. All interested countries, except China, would be behind the US doing so. It might bring on a military response by China, but it would be short lived. The longer a military confrontation is put off, the bigger it will be when it eventually happens. It's like an infection. Better to lance it now, then let it fester. The next US prez will undoubtedly have to deal with the SCS issue - and hopefully dynamically. Anything China's leaders say is aimed at delaying the issue. The longer it's delayed, the longer China can pour concrete, place weapons on the commandeered rocks (fast being covered in dredged-up sand), and get their navy beefed up. Each week that goes by, is another week China can shift troops down to newly built facilities/airports there - to man weapons and bunkers.

[LawrenceChee]

Maybe I'm getting crabbier as I get older, but dynamic action is needed by the US. Philippines is a friend of the US, but this build-up by China is bigger than any of the individual players.

The best case scenario would be a declaration of Marine Reserve status for the entire SC sea. Since Asians are incapable of those types of thoughts (everything for them is about amassing money and possessions), then the next best thing would be a preemptive strike (taking out all weapons, docks and troop installations) by the world's most advanced military. All interested countries, except China, would be behind the US doing so. It might bring on a military response by China, but it would be short lived. The longer a military confrontation is put off, the bigger it will be when it eventually happens. It's like an infection. Better to lance it now, then let it fester. The next US prez will undoubtedly have to deal with the SCS issue - and hopefully dynamically. Anything China's leaders say is aimed at delaying the issue. The longer it's delayed, the longer China can pour concrete, place weapons on the commandeered rocks (fast being covered in dredged-up sand), and get their navy beefed up. Each week that goes by, is another week China can shift troops down to newly built facilities/airports there - to man weapons and bunkers.

You are pretty accurate in these descriptions ....hence the need by the Chinese to bunker down as they cannot guarantee there will be no escalated tension with the idiot Trump still looking like he is going to the poll card

China have learnt , looking at USA politics that the current pattern of military tactics from the USA military which is to carpet bomb everything and hope the other party is going to submit

Won't work with China or Russia but then again who would want a blanket bombing by a trigger irresponsible country and hence they are bunkering down like the Japanese did in the pacific wars and knowing the USA have no political will for any ground war and those islands give them first strike as much as the USA has done by basing themselves in Korea , Japan , Philippines and Guam ...these countries will be pawns in an unwanted war but it won't be started by the Chinese ....history favours the trigger happy yanks rather than the money conscious China

It's a good deterrent for China in having these islands to build first strike capabilities against USA that could potentially pick a nut case as a president

[boomerangutang]

China will not start a war ...it's not in their interests and they are not trigger happy in wasting money.

China will probably not start a war. Or at least that's how they would want to position themselves. yet they are closing in on military confrontation. If you have a house with a lawn, and I come along with my family and friends and camp out on your front lawn indefinitely, you're going to respond. China has essentially gone down to camp out on Phil's front lawn, in this case, some rocky outcrops near the Phil coast. It's also putting in airstrips and setting heavy guns in concrete on the islands. They may not be firing the first shot, but it's essentially the same. I'm sure you know this, but large numbers of soldiers does not always = success on the battlefield. During the first Iraqi war, the Iraqi troops outnumbered attackers massively, but they had their butts kicked within hours after the first shots fired. The attackers mobilized from the other side of the world. The Iraqis were fighting in their front yard.

If push came to shove in the S.China Sea, and the Chinese were kicked back to China, would it be justified for the winning side to take Hainan? Ok, it won't happen, but is an interesting thought experiment.

A bit different, but there's a story of a Japanese businessman who was driving in the US's Rocky Mnts on the day after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, 1941. He saw a steam shovel moving rocks from the road and thought, "In Japan, there would be a hundred men gathered to move those rocks. In the US, just one man in a large machine can do it. The Japanese will lose the war."

Edited April 19, 2016 by boomerangutang

[keemapoot]

Unlike some posters the CCP is not absolute because they have moderates like myself who continue to engage the government and advise them what is right

But the Chinese are no pushover these days and want change at their own pace and not dictated by the west

The Tiananmen which is a dead dog subject of the human rights group have nothing much to talk about ...the CCP looked at it and thought that was dumb and never repeated it even with the violent protest in HK and showed the maturity but of course the critics will never let the CCP go on this one

That's shows maturity which clearly irks the western powers who enjoys using the Tiananmen as the sole reason to keep reminding Beijing they are not good enough for the international platform while lacking a self conscious to review what some of the western powers have done in recent years stinks of the same hypocrisy

Lawrence, I enjoy reading your views, and as you disclosed at one time your privileged position in terms of advising the government, which seems truthful to me reading your posts. I have known many similarly placed associates and friends.

China's emergence this century necessarily brings with it all the other trappings of a superpower, including the perceived need to create a buffer zone, sphere of influence, and resource continuity. In China's special case, the possibility of the world's most populace place descending into chaos makes those exigencies even more pressing.

China's fight with the west and with the competing Asian countries with claims will be a long one, and China is in this for the long game. I expect wins by all sides along the way.

[boomerangutang]

China is pushing the envelope in several directions. It the old days, countries did it by rolling out armies, or (as with Louisiana Purchase, Seward's Folly or HK) by treaties/purchases. Nowadays, China is doing it like a 900 lb sumo wrestler, just leaning, leaning leaning (no matter how long it takes) and the opponent being pushed out.

It's got several border disputes with India, occasional tiffs with VN, bad blood with Tibet, Taiwan and Japan, and now the insidious expansion to islands owned by smaller SE Asian countries.

No matter how slow/clandestine it tries to go, or how China tries to assuage concerns ("no involvement by UN, by US, by int'l law"), shit will hit the fan, particularly in the S.China Sea.

China as has expansion plans for SE Asia. Each country is being dealt with individually. Laos, Cambodia and Thailand are the easiest for China to impress, because all three are helplessly in awe of China's might. For its part, Burma is showing some backbone, in particular, not allowing China to build giant dams. Thailand has the spine of a jellyfish, as it agrees with every Chinese request.

[55Jay]

You don't sound very credible, your fluff links don't support what you've said, and now you are making assumptions and snarky comments. I'm interested, not looking for a bun fight. What is the relevant "stuff" you've read re: Guam, Singapore and Brunei as "home ports" for nuke carriers? Come on, help this dumb squid out.

55Jay, be carefull when you read stuff from Publicus.

Yes, the links are fluff links, usually opinion posts from whatever websites that cheer on whatever Washington's foreign policy is.

Publicus is constantly putting up posts that bang the drum for America's war machine. Publicus is against the Bush regime (well, that's dead easy to do, who on earth can support the Bush regime after Iraq) but constantly cheers on America's military might. Going on and on in gory detail about America's aircraft carriers and combat jets.

What makes Publicus's posts dangerous is, is that Publicus supports Hillary Clinton of the Democrats (but not Bernie Sanders) and Publicus wants to distance himself from the war-mongering Republicans. But Publicus is all about banging the war drum, as you can see from his posts, it's just that he wants to bang the war drum without the Republican tag. He might as well be in the same ranks as the Republican war-mongers. Actually, he is.

Well, thanks for the warning.

The hawkish drum beat was not lost on me either, but as you can see, I was drawn to other parts of his comment.

[LawrenceChee]

China will not start a war ...it's not in their interests and they are not trigger happy in wasting money.

China will probably not start a war. Or at least that's how they would want to position themselves. yet they are closing in on military confrontation. If you have a house with a lawn, and I come along with my family and friends and camp out on your front lawn indefinitely, you're going to respond. China has essentially gone down to camp out on Phil's front lawn, in this case, some rocky outcrops near the Phil coast. It's also putting in airstrips and setting heavy guns in concrete on the islands. They may not be firing the first shot, but it's essentially the same. I'm sure you know this, but large numbers of soldiers does not always = success on the battlefield. During the first Iraqi war, the Iraqi troops outnumbered attackers massively, but they had their butts kicked within hours after the first shots fired. The attackers mobilized from the other side of the world. The Iraqis were fighting in their front yard.

If push came to shove in the S.China Sea, and the Chinese were kicked back to China, would it be justified for the winning side to take Hainan? Ok, it won't happen, but is an interesting thought experiment.

A bit different, but there's a story of a Japanese businessman who was driving in the US's Rocky Mnts on the day after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, 1941. He saw a steam shovel moving rocks from the road and thought, "In Japan, there would be a hundred men gathered to move those rocks. In the US, just one man in a large machine can do it. The Japanese will lose the war."

Its interesting you put it this way as the Chinese Govt in their internal discussions look it rather differently

In their discussion , they actually see the USA camping at their lawn and the provocation including patrols , drills are all started or initiated by the USA

The CCP is growing in its savvy handling of these events and actually see the passive use of dredging equipment as the best snub to USA interference

I don't think any USA citizens will find it funny if China starts to engage Cuba and have conducted drills with them in anti beaching military exercises or start selling anti Wall equipment to the Mexicans ; they will probably be baying at congress to mobilise troops , test readiness of bombs etc etc

China has wisely not responded tit for tat ...in advising them especially in the south , you will find the Chinese CCP troops a different breed to the Iraqi troops

If the Americans can't beat the Vietcong in 1975 with superior air power , there is no one in the Chinese military who is unduly worried .

They know observing the military tactics , it's the carpet bombing that is the states fav CNN moments , won't work in China as they have learnt no civilised ally can tolerate bombing of civilian and the Chinese military have continued to irk the west as their communist ways means military estimation is hard to predict when they don't share everything on national geo or through exercises where everything is hiding

You just have to see Publicius sharing of military formations , strengths etc that make you shake you head in wonderment ....because it's either that easy to get his information or its just bullshit he is talking

The Chinese offer no such information and you won't see me talking about it either

[Publicus]

It's interesting if TVF posters can dig up so much information about the deployment of the USA Navy

I know it annoys the hell out of the USA commanders they can never find the Chinese and Russians so forthcoming with this kind of information as they understand what military secrets are

Personally the USA military units can do whatever they want but they know realistically they are not in a position to checkmate the Chinese anymore

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

The Chinese won't fire the first volley and honestly they have enough to overwhelm the islands close by

The new strategy is to flood the enemies with people ....just watch how the EU is struggling with the current migrant crisis

On the next war path, send out the vessels loaded with Chinese citizens arriving in Seoul , Okinawa , Manila , Taiwan , Singapore

Unlike the movie saving private Ryan, you cannot gun down civilians ...be an interesting weapon and military tactic to overwhelm the ports blocking the passage of war ships with civilian vessels

They are building enough Panamax vessels to have that kind of resources

This is Asia and no matter how much allies you have here in bases, the supply chain is too stretched for the USA to keep any campaign going for long periods.

No campaign is necessary in dealing with the CCP and its military in the South China Sea or in the East Sea where CCP are campaigning against Japan.

USN Pacific Command and US Pacific Air Forces Command operate throughout this region regularly, long term, consistently. This is not World War 2 either when the USN had 2000 Pacific Command ships in six major campaigns throughout the Western Pacific south to north (two thousand). http://www.ww2pacific.com

What is likely to occur in the SCS are a series of individual instances of live fire incidents quickly occurring, instantly concluded, much examined, and surrounded by a lot of diplomatic alarm with military hollering back and forth and all around. Emergency meetings would be held and resolutions voted by individual nations, regional groupings, international bodies and organisations (yawn).

The worst case scenario for CCP would be a USN (standoff) blockade of all CCP seaports from Dalian just north of Shanghai to Shenzhen on the SCS (excluding Hong Kong). CCP knows that a USN blockade will shock its continuously downward spiraling economy and financial system to little impact on the economy of the world and the region.

Or a USN (close-in) blockade of only the CCP ports on the SCS, to include its PLA Naval forces on Hainan Island would be implemented as a more targeted and focused limited action to separate CCP from all islands natural or manmade in the Sea (always excepting Hong Kong). Draw a new line from Taiwan to Malaysia between the SCS islands and the CCP mainland/Hainan (south and west). (Reinforce Vietnam territorial waters which would be inside (west of) the blockade line.) The blockade line would protect the international shipping lanes through the Sea, separating them from CCP reach.

First thing a blockaded country (or partially blockaded one) does is to test the blockade by trying to run it. CCP doesn't have the balls for even that. (CCP submarines btw make more noise than the motor on a Thai longboat.)

In either event, the only direct route PLA Navy have to the open western Pacific is through the Miyako Strait between Japan and Taiwan, possessed by Japan. The Strait is already well covered by the US-Japan military treaty alliance but, still, Japan the past three years has reinforced their command of it with new and additional missiles, radars, submarines. (Japan doesn't need to float anything on the water to control the Strait.) Which makes the PLA Navy sitting ducks trapped in the shallow coastal waters of China.

USN and USAF supply lines include regional treaty allies, strategic partner countries as well as the wide open Pacific from Hawaii and the US west coast.

Edited April 19, 2016 by Publicus

[Publicus]

Although it is not discussed publicly, many military analysts and diplomats globally see the USN Freedom of Navigation Exercise(s) as the early prelude to a possible US blockade in the SCS.

Possible, if the CCP does not cease and desist. CCP shows no signs of ceasing or desisting in their belligerence, bellicosity, aggressions against the neighbors and the international legal order.

The present and ongoing US and regional reaction to CCP aggression in the SCS is directly confounding CCP's plans to become a global power in economics and militarily by first becoming a regional power. Becoming a regional power begins with CCP domination of the SCS.

CCP lives in horror of a US-led blockade, whether a standoff one or a SCS in-close one, the latter being distinctly the likely blockade should one be implemented...

China seems to fear blockades of its long coastline, and the string of islands off most of its coast makes the leadership feel even more vulnerable.

Chinese military authors frequently discuss the need for training exercises and a military campaign plan to break out of an island blockade. One operations-research analysis describes seven lines of enemy capabilities that Chinese submarines would have to overcome to break a blockade.

The United States, in their estimation, has supposedly built a blockade system of antisubmarine nets, hydroacoustic systems, underwater mines, surface warships, antisubmarine aircraft, submarines, and reconnaissance satellites. (emphasis added)

http://www.michaelpillsbury.net/articles/Michael-Pillsbury_The_Sixteen_Fears_Chinas_Strategic_Psychology_10-03-12.pdf

http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2015/02/11/chinas_7_fears_when_it_comes_to_america_107620.html

The following sounds very much like the SCS situation....

The mounting challenge posed by China’s military modernization has highlighted the need for the United States to analyze its ability to execute a naval blockade. A blockade strategy is viable, but it would be limited to a narrow context: the United States would have to be engaged in a protracted conflict over vital interests, and it would need the support of key regional powers. The United States would also need to implement a mix between a close and distant blockade in order to avoid imperiling the conflict’s strategic context. If enacted, a blockade could exact a ruinous cost on the Chinese economy and state.

Read more at: http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/02/12/stranglehold-context-conduct-and-consequences-of-american-naval-blockade-of-china

Edited April 19, 2016 by Publicus

[LawrenceChee]

Won't happen in the next hundred years where hopefully the posters to TVF will be more receptive to a friendly China and repulse military actions as a first option to all negotiations

[LawrenceChee]

I think at the rate in which American feel they list muddle into affairs , even 10 million vessels won't be enough for al its campaign it wants to engage in

Better to follow the Asian style in these things , talk in the background , negotiate and come to a compromise

It will culturally be very hard for USA to do that as it is used to acting like big brother and Mr know it all

Obama was a reasonable man although seen as weak by some quarters was smart enough to do a lot of closed door negotiations