SURVEY: Brexit, do you support it?

[nontabury]

THis is growth rate - you don't seem to realise actually what that is and have picked one graph out of thsands of economic reviews of various aspects of the economy simply because you think erroneously it backs up your point of view.

Why not check on a standards of living graph?

REAL research is looking first and making your mind up after - you appear to be doing it the wrong way round.

you need to learn how to "research"...it's not the same as "search", Google or Facebook.

I have picked an economic growth graph because the Guardian article was about economic growth rate, how blindingly appropriate is that?

You still appear to have a condescending attitude to anyone who disagrees with you, I have never told you what you need to do.

This is not a contest of egos.

Regrettably, I fear that it is. I also fear it will get worse in the next three weeks.

This does not have to become a p!ssing contest, but invariably on Thai Visa (and elsewhere) it seems to.

Some people have difficulty understanding that opinions are just that - a personal view of any given situation.

Two people can be given the same data/facts/bullsh!t and come to a different conclusion about the best outcome.

There is no clear cut set of reasons for EXIT or REMAIN. In most cases it depends on your fundamental political standpoint and preconceptions. Being in the EU has not been all bad - it couldn't be, there has to have been benefits from such an alliance over 43 years. Those are recognised and acknowledged. Equally, an EXIT should not be all about the fear of a collapse of trade/economy/Pound etc - life will go on after EXIT. Will it be plain sailing and the land of milk and honey? - of course not. Will a vote to REMAIN ensure a better future for Britain? - frankly, I doubt out and (in my opinion only) I can see it only getting worse with more of the same.

If in your individual opinion you think that membership of the EU currently offers greater benefits for Britain (and will continue to do so in the future) then it is right to vote REMAIN. I have no issue with anyone who sees it that way and democracy allows them to vote differently to me.

For my part, the EU is broken. We can't mend it and it has changed dramatically from the EEC that I was in favour of back in the 1970's and was pro-European about for 30 years.

Tough decisions are not easy and invariably come at a cost. I prefer the risk of short-term pain for the long-term benefits, that I believe are associated with EXIT, rather than the terminal decline of the EU with a REMAIN vote. As said, I respect the democratic right of others to see things differently and vote accordingly - they are not wrong any more than I am.

quote " This is not a contest of egos.

Regrettably, I fear that it is. I also fear it will get worse in the next three weeks".

This is the sole reason why I cannot be bothered to post on this thread any more other than this time.

I made my decision a long while ago and it will not change.

I DO have the right to vote and my vote will be exercised by my proxy voter on the 23rd of June.

What ever the result, Brexit or Remain, I will accept it but I won't take part in any post mortems or any of the "your side cheated, Oh no they didn't, Oh yes they did" threads that will come out of the vote.

I got over that attitude when I left school in 1959.

Bill I respect your comments and understand the point regarding the result.

However in the event of the remain side winning,something I predicted at the start of this thread. Many more people,unfortunately not all,are now more knowledgeable of the shortfalls in membership of the EU. The big question then is will the electorate while abiding by the result of the referendum simple forget about this issue,and will UKIP with more than 4,000,000 supporters simple disperse, or will it become a main player on the political scene? And if so, when it becomes obvious through EU policies over the next few years,how the electorate has once again being deceived,as in 1975, will that lead to even greater support for a call to exit the EU.

Slightly off post,It is becoming clear that in addition to tens of thousands of Irish citizens being allowed to vote in this British referendum, it now seems that a number of citizens of other countries in the EU have also received voting papers, while some British citizens living abroad including Thailand,are classified as ineligible. Add these factors together with the farce of the postal vote will surely lead some people to question the validity of the result.

Edited June 1, 2016 by nontabury

[nontabury]

Edited June 1, 2016 by nontabury

[chiang mai]

One More:

The above is how GBP moved against USD when the Brexit lead was announced:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3617421/Poll-surge-Brexit-record-breaking-EU-immigration-figures-drive-public-fears-numbers-coming-Britain.html

For UK expats in Thailand that means that one Pound went from 52.05 to it's current level of 51.29 (average all Thai banks at this moment in time).

It will rise again in the future which ever way it goes

That's exactly what British expats here were saying when the Baht fell from 80 to 70 per Pound and of course it, the question is though whether it will be in your life time, your children's or your grand children!

[chiang mai]

More than half of UK farmers income comes from the EU, land values and demand now falling as a result of Brexit fear, ditto central London real estate:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-20/english-farm-prices-fall-most-since-2008-on-brexit-commodities

It was claimed following the Panama Papers that the practice of using London property to launder money would decline resulting in a drop in property prices.

Thanks, I hadn't heard that before.

[Caps]

One More:

The above is how GBP moved against USD when the Brexit lead was announced:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3617421/Poll-surge-Brexit-record-breaking-EU-immigration-figures-drive-public-fears-numbers-coming-Britain.html

For UK expats in Thailand that means that one Pound went from 52.05 to it's current level of 51.29 (average all Thai banks at this moment in time).

It will rise again in the future which ever way it goes

That's exactly what British expats here were saying when the Baht fell from 80 to 70 per Pound and of course it, the question is though whether it will be in your life time, your children's or your grand children!

we will have to wait and see, just as we will with it all

[SheungWan]

I'm sure the GBP will hover this way and that up to the decision. Brexit, it will drop further because of uncertainty. Remain and it will continue to drop against the USD like it has since July 2014. Either way its declining

No doubt about the Pound being in decline and since the start of the year Brexit has mad things substantially worse. As shown in the previous chart only the certainty of a Remain vote will slow that decline.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-23/pound-s-slide-endures-after-currency-s-worst-day-since-2010

With UK bookmakers quoting 1/4 on for REMAIN you would have thought that was sufficient confidence in a REMAIN vote for the graph to be evidencing a steady upward trend !

Well no, one one would not conclude that at all. As the vote approaches, market confidence in the result for sure has been on an upward trend but parts of the market are ready to head for the hills at the slightest whiff off a shift in voting sentiments. In fact the vote for staying has softened to 2/7 so please do keep up. If the odds really did shift towards evens BREXIT then there would be a much bigger loss in GBPUSD than 1%.

[chiang mai]

Except there is short term evidence of an upward direction, not yet a trend, based on Remain being in the lead - all of that may well change now however given the Brexit poll advantage.

[Thaiwine]

It seems to me you can use data to support your own argument should you do a bit of research.

ie; I claim Margaret Thatchers resignation as PM caused a 20% loss in house prices over the next 5 years, Nationwide stats prove me right.

[chiang mai]

It seems to me you can use data to support your own argument should you do a bit of research.

ie; I claim Margaret Thatchers resignation as PM caused a 20% loss in house prices over the next 5 years, Nationwide stats prove me right.

Only if you use real house prices and allow for inflation is that true, a ruse almost anyone would see through!

[sandyf]

More than half of UK farmers income comes from the EU, land values and demand now falling as a result of Brexit fear, ditto central London real estate:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-20/english-farm-prices-fall-most-since-2008-on-brexit-commodities

It was claimed following the Panama Papers that the practice of using London property to launder money would decline resulting in a drop in property prices.

Thanks, I hadn't heard that before.

None of us are born knowledgeable and you cannot catch every news item floating by, at the end of the day brexit may have more effect than the property tycoons.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/05/panama-papers-world-leaders-tycoons-secret-property-empires

[sandyf]

Except there is short term evidence of an upward direction, not yet a trend, based on Remain being in the lead - all of that may well change now however given the Brexit poll advantage.

Unfortunately there tends to be some narrow minded views in terms of currency rather than looking at the wider picture. It really is a question of probability rather than certainty.

There was a significant jump in the GBP against the USD as soon as the Queens speech finished and as there was no movement on the dollar index the probability is a confidence boost from the speech. In the same way the probability of recent improvement in the pound against a rising dollar is down to a gain on the 'remain' side,

The fall in the pound today is in line with a rise in the dollar so the probability of being related to the 'brexit' is unlikely.

Edited June 1, 2016 by sandyf

[chiang mai]

More than half of UK farmers income comes from the EU, land values and demand now falling as a result of Brexit fear, ditto central London real estate:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-20/english-farm-prices-fall-most-since-2008-on-brexit-commodities

It was claimed following the Panama Papers that the practice of using London property to launder money would decline resulting in a drop in property prices.

Thanks, I hadn't heard that before.

None of us are born knowledgeable and you cannot catch every news item floating by, at the end of the day brexit may have more effect than the property tycoons.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/05/panama-papers-world-leaders-tycoons-secret-property-empires

Not true, my ex wife was born knowing everything.

[sandyf]

None of us are born knowledgeable and you cannot catch every news item floating by, at the end of the day brexit may have more effect than the property tycoons.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/05/panama-papers-world-leaders-tycoons-secret-property-empires

Not true, my ex wife was born knowing everything.

Yes, you are not alone, overlooked that one.

[nontabury]

Except there is short term evidence of an upward direction, not yet a trend, based on Remain being in the lead - all of that may well change now however given the Brexit poll advantage.

Unfortunately there tends to be some narrow minded views in terms of currency rather than looking at the wider picture. It really is a question of probability rather than certainty.

There was a significant jump in the GBP against the USD as soon as the Queens speech finished and as there was no movement on the dollar index the probability is a confidence boost from the speech. In the same way the probability of recent improvement in the pound against a rising dollar is down to a gain on the 'remain' side,

The fall in the pound today is in line with a rise in the dollar so the probability of being related to the 'brexit' is unlikely.

So heads I'm right,tails you loose.

[SheungWan]

Except there is short term evidence of an upward direction, not yet a trend, based on Remain being in the lead - all of that may well change now however given the Brexit poll advantage.

Unfortunately there tends to be some narrow minded views in terms of currency rather than looking at the wider picture. It really is a question of probability rather than certainty.

There was a significant jump in the GBP against the USD as soon as the Queens speech finished and as there was no movement on the dollar index the probability is a confidence boost from the speech. In the same way the probability of recent improvement in the pound against a rising dollar is down to a gain on the 'remain' side,

The fall in the pound today is in line with a rise in the dollar so the probability of being related to the 'brexit' is unlikely.

You can try and talk it into the long grass all you want but the distinctive 1% loss in GBPUSD following the poll figures is unambiguous. The Leave team seem to be enjoying a veritable flip-flop between 2 positions. The first is that yes there will be an immediate drop in sterling following BREXIT but never mind, what goes down will eventually go back up. Not very impressive that one. And then there is the second position which asserts that any lurches down in sterling as the risk of BREXIT approaches is nothing to do with BREXIT, its blah, blah, blah. Not sure if that one is any more convincing but they plug away nonetheless. Why? Why indeed. The recent advice from the OECD that BREXIT is neither good for the UK either in the short or long term cooks the BREXIT team's shallow grasp of economics. But then economics was not exactly ever their strong point. Oh, I forgot there is a third position (see somewhere in the thread above) that a weaker (read weak) sterling is good for Britain. Fantastic.

[sandyf]

Except there is short term evidence of an upward direction, not yet a trend, based on Remain being in the lead - all of that may well change now however given the Brexit poll advantage.

Unfortunately there tends to be some narrow minded views in terms of currency rather than looking at the wider picture. It really is a question of probability rather than certainty.

There was a significant jump in the GBP against the USD as soon as the Queens speech finished and as there was no movement on the dollar index the probability is a confidence boost from the speech. In the same way the probability of recent improvement in the pound against a rising dollar is down to a gain on the 'remain' side,

The fall in the pound today is in line with a rise in the dollar so the probability of being related to the 'brexit' is unlikely.

You can try and talk it into the long grass all you want but the distinctive 1% loss in GBPUSD following the poll figures is unambiguous. The Leave team seem to be enjoying a veritable flip-flop between 2 positions. The first is that yes there will be an immediate drop in sterling following BREXIT but never mind, what goes down will eventually go back up. Not very impressive that one. And then there is the second position which asserts that any lurches down in sterling as the risk of BREXIT approaches is nothing to do with BREXIT, its blah, blah, blah. Not sure if that one is any more convincing but they plug away nonetheless. Why? Why indeed. The recent advice from the OECD that BREXIT is neither good for the UK either in the short or long term cooks the BREXIT team's shallow grasp of economics. But then economics was not exactly ever their strong point. Oh, I forgot there is a third position (see somewhere in the thread above) that a weaker (read weak) sterling is good for Britain. Fantastic.

You cannot say that unless all other factors were at a standstill. By definition the GBP/USD is dependent on both GBP and USD movement, so if the USD is on the move when a poll is released you would need a crystal ball to determine which is doing what.

[sandyf]

"The pound has fallen sharply against the dollar after a new poll showing the Leave campaign ahead in the EU referendum."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-pound-slides-sharply-against-the-us-dollar-after-poll-showing-brexit-ahead-a7058021.html

This article is a bit misleading. The chart shows the downward movement to start at just after 15.30 London time. At 15.15 London time the dollar index made a sharp upward movement, in the space of 30 minutes it rose from 95.488 to 95.809(0.34%). More than half of the downward movement on the pound was due to a sudden change in the dollar.

I am not saying that the movement in the dollar was not down to the poll but the reporting should be a bit more accurate. Very little happens in isolation.

[chiang mai]

An interesting article that will appeal to the nostalgics:

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

And the real poll of polls:

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

Edited June 1, 2016 by chiang mai

[chiang mai]

And this re: Sterling value vs. Brexit, from a reliable source, confirming the above:

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/05/31/sterling-knocked-by-latest-polls-showing-swing-to-brexit/

[allanos]

The chart displayed earlier today by Chiang Mai has no real bearing on what is happening in the run-up to the referendum. It is a 40-year chart, whereas the referendum was only announced in February of this year. I would also argue that, by referring to this chart, since 1985, and perhaps more particularly, since 2009, it has exhibited a range-trading situation versus the US dollar. There is no declining trend exhibited, at all.

Currency trading is marked by short-term fluctuations. Market-moving events tend to influence such fluctuations, and, if one looks at, for example, Non-farm Payroll announcements on the first Friday of each month, sharp spikes. Within a short time thereafter, though, exchange rates tend to settle down again.

David Cameron announced the Referendum on 20th February, 2016. The Dollar/ Pound rate was then at 1.44. Although the exchange rate has fluctuated in

the period since, today the rate is . . . 1.44!

I would suggest that trade figures, GDP figures, Budgetary announcements etc., over a period of months, and even years, following the result of the forthcoming

referendum, will have, and do, influence the long-term direction in terms of currency exchange rates, and will be the only accurate way to judge the success or failure of post-Brexit Britain. The future is yet to unfold!

[Grouse]

An interesting article that will appeal to the nostalgics:

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

And the real poll of polls:

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

Phew! That's a relief! I was thinking of getting an ivory handled revolver to go with my bottle of The Famous Grouse ?

[allanos]

An interesting article that will appeal to the nostalgics:

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

And the real poll of polls:

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

Phew! That's a relief! I was thinking of getting an ivory handled revolver to go with my bottle of The Famous Grouse ?

Although I understand your sense of relief, pro tempore, it may be asked, does anyone set any store by what the Pollsters say, any more? Of late, they have

shown to be anything but reliable. The polls also do not predict, of course, how the voter turn-out will vote on 23rd June, nor the extent to whichthey will vote "for"

or "against" Brexit.

Those of you who take solace in the odds that the book-makers are posting, are probably closer to the mark, although, again, it cannot be definitive.

Keep your Famous Grouse close by, as you may possibly be in a torrid time, come June 24th!

[Grouse]

An interesting article that will appeal to the nostalgics:

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

And the real poll of polls:

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

Phew! That's a relief! I was thinking of getting an ivory handled revolver to go with my bottle of The Famous Grouse ?

Although I understand your sense of relief, pro tempore, it may be asked, does anyone set any store by what the Pollsters say, any more? Of late, they have

shown to be anything but reliable. The polls also do not predict, of course, how the voter turn-out will vote on 23rd June, nor the extent to whichthey will vote "for"

or "against" Brexit.

Those of you who take solace in the odds that the book-makers are posting, are probably closer to the mark, although, again, it cannot be definitive.

Keep your Famous Grouse close by, as you may possibly be in a torrid time, come June 24th!

Ha! Thanks!

[chiang mai]

And this re: Sterling value vs. Brexit, from a reliable source, confirming the above:

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/05/31/sterling-knocked-by-latest-polls-showing-swing-to-brexit/

I'm going to repost this link again to make sure people read it, I think few have done so thus far and I believe it offers useful explanations to the today issues:

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/05/31/sterling-knocked-by-latest-polls-showing-swing-to-brexit/

And I'm going to mostly ignore the earlier remarks about the relevancy of the 40 year chart and the associated comments, other than to suggest that Specsavers offers a decent service.

[nontabury]

This is all you need to know:

Why or why has none of the supporters for remaining in this so called corrupt Union pulled this video to pieces.Likewise the posting of Brexit the Movie. Could it possible be they cannot find any faults with them. Although to be fair to Grouse, he did say a FEW weeks ago,after prompting by myself and others,that he would look into the points raised by Brexit the Movie and come back and pull the facts raised in that Movie to bits. Strangely he has failed to keep to his word,I wonder why.

I am of course referring to the video shown by Jetsetbkk on post 1662,d/d 31/5/16,which for some reason I cannot transfer over.

Edited June 1, 2016 by nontabury

[Grouse]

This is all you need to know:

Why or why has none of the supporters for remaining in this so called corrupt Union pulled this video to pieces.Likewise the posting of Brexit the Movie. Could it possible be they cannot find any faults with them. Although to be fair to Grouse, he did say a FEW weeks ago,after prompting by myself and others,that he would look into the points raised by Brexit the Movie and come back and pull the facts raised in that Movie to bits. Strangely he has failed to keep to his word,I wonder why.

I am of course referring to the video shown by Jetsetbkk on post 1662, which for some reason I cannot transfer over.

The reason? I couldn't be arsed!

I'm sure you can understand that!

However, I will do so.

Anything to make you happy!

[arjunadawn]

More anecdotal accounts of social media/internet companies colluding with leftist political agenda. While I'm sure some object to Briebart as a source the accounts of increasing censorship by Internet companies employed as a proxy by the EU/State are increasing. If the last year alone is an indication of the future Brits will be horrified should they choose Remain.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/01/claim-corrupt-google-suppressing-eurosceptic-website-says-founder/

[chiang mai]

Ten years after Brexit:

http://esharp.eu/debates/the-uk-and-europe/out-10-years-after-brexit

A very plausible if not likely scenario.

And then again there's the life of the Brit. expat in Thailand three five and ten years on, the stock market having been badly hit and drawdown pensions reduced to the level of a poor annuity, the exchange rate against the baht at 42 and the price of UK property out of the reach of most returning expats, yum, a work of fiction or a foreseen reality or don't we know/really care.

Edited June 1, 2016 by chiang mai

[Orac]

More anecdotal accounts of social media/internet companies colluding with leftist political agenda. While I'm sure some object to Briebart as a source the accounts of increasing censorship by Internet companies employed as a proxy by the EU/State are increasing. If the last year alone is an indication of the future Brits will be horrified should they choose Remain.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/01/claim-corrupt-google-suppressing-eurosceptic-website-says-founder/

Whining that your blog doesn't rank highly on google is a bit of a stretch in indicating bias. If you set up a proper website to get your point across rather than something under a .blogspot.co.uk url you are likely to be more popular and get more hits - one thing that finally seems to have occurred to this blogger as the link provided in the story now goes to the old blog with a link on it to his new website.

[SheungWan]

More anecdotal accounts of social media/internet companies colluding with leftist political agenda. While I'm sure some object to Briebart as a source the accounts of increasing censorship by Internet companies employed as a proxy by the EU/State are increasing. If the last year alone is an indication of the future Brits will be horrified should they choose Remain.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/01/claim-corrupt-google-suppressing-eurosceptic-website-says-founder/

Whining that your blog doesn't rank highly on google is a bit of a stretch in indicating bias. If you set up a proper website to get your point across rather than something under a .blogspot.co.uk url you are likely to be more popular and get more hits - one thing that finally seems to have occurred to this blogger as the link provided in the story now goes to the old blog with a link on it to his new website.

Most of the guys whining haven't got the faintest clue how search engine optimization works and always assume that their website should be listed on page one permanently on a keyword search.

Edited June 2, 2016 by SheungWan