SURVEY: Brexit, do you support it?

[oldsailor35]

To all those ill informed persons who think that Gt Britain should stay in the EU. I strongly recommend that they learn more about the situation by watching the Youtube film "Brexit, The Movie" I am positive that they will be amazed by the facts that they obviously do not yet understand.

[oldsailor35]

The European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker. Another freeloader, who went into Politics at the age of 20 and has never had a job. Oh yes people, yet another one. Has this to say.

European Commission boss Jean-Claude Juncker has warned the UK that "deserters won’t be welcomed back with open arms".

In hard-hitting comments, which have sparked accusations of intimidation among eurosceptics, he said the UK would "have to bear the consequences" if it voted to quit the 28-member bloc.

In the event of Britain breaking away, it "would be considered a third party and one we won’t suck up to", he added.

http://news.sky.com/story/1699424/eu-chief-juncker-warns-uk-over-deserters

Feeling the heat Juncker ? Are you now having nightmares about your gravy train, not just coming to end, but slamming into the abyss in a fatal crash.

I would have thought, that you of all people, would understand that Brits really do not take kindly to threats.

Will people like Juncker ever learn that the average Brit is nothing like the French, they will never roll over and surrender so easily. They will go along for so long and then just stubbornly dig in.

[Orac]

I do see your point but from a personal point of view regarding the financial wellbeing of me and my family the value of the pound is crucial.

Though there may be a case for "taking one for the team" so to speak, I do not think it has been made and I do not think they would be able to carry out their economic plan as it would be unpalatable to the general population once they realised what they were signed up to. Free market economics look nice on paper but when people realise what policies like freeing up the labour market and open competition actually mean in practice and how it affects things like their incomes, job security and social institutions like the NHS then i think they would soon regret voting away those protections that, being under the umbrella of the EU, they currently get.

Orac.

I do see and I also understand your point. From your viewpoint I would suggest that you do a bit of research on '' Benefits '' in the EU context and then research when '' Benefits '' cease to be paid outside the EU.

You might just want to rethink your financial wellbeing.

No scaremongering intended.

I have no reliance on benefits - if the state pension is still there when i am old enough to claim that would be a bonus. I do however have a large chunk of capital tied up in the UK denominated in sterling that I can do little about hence the importance of the exchange rate. If the brexit economic plan was plausible then it wouldn't be a problem waiting it out for 5-10 years for things to pick up but, as i said before, i don't think their plan is feasible.

[SgtRock]

I do see your point but from a personal point of view regarding the financial wellbeing of me and my family the value of the pound is crucial.

Though there may be a case for "taking one for the team" so to speak, I do not think it has been made and I do not think they would be able to carry out their economic plan as it would be unpalatable to the general population once they realised what they were signed up to. Free market economics look nice on paper but when people realise what policies like freeing up the labour market and open competition actually mean in practice and how it affects things like their incomes, job security and social institutions like the NHS then i think they would soon regret voting away those protections that, being under the umbrella of the EU, they currently get.

Orac.

I do see and I also understand your point. From your viewpoint I would suggest that you do a bit of research on '' Benefits '' in the EU context and then research when '' Benefits '' cease to be paid outside the EU.

You might just want to rethink your financial wellbeing.

No scaremongering intended.

I have no reliance on benefits - if the state pension is still there when i am old enough to claim that would be a bonus. I do however have a large chunk of capital tied up in the UK denominated in sterling that I can do little about hence the importance of the exchange rate. If the brexit economic plan was plausible then it wouldn't be a problem waiting it out for 5-10 years for things to pick up but, as i said before, i don't think their plan is feasible.

I was not suggesting that you were reliant on benefits. Please accept my apologies if that was how it came across.

It was the State Pension I was alluding to. It is classed as a benefit for a reason It is very likely that you and I, and others, will not see the State Pension if we continue to reside outside the EU.

[sandyf]

EU is a community that stretches from the Artic circle to Africa, from Asia to the Atlantic.

You can live anywhere ,work anywhere, travel anywhere without any hassle.......

How could anyone would want to throw all that away and believes they’d be better off bounded between Berwick and Bournemouth is just beyond belief.

That doesn't wash either.

We (the UK) traded with the WHOLE of the rest of the world before joining the EEC and would continue to do so after leaving the EU.

Do you really think trade would stop ?

Geographically, Land's End to John O'Groats is fine.

The UK trades with 53 countries on the back of an EU agreement, that is 53 trade deals that would have to be renegotiated. The leave campaign are very reluctant to say how this will be achieved and how long it will take. You must bear in mind that no new deal could be started where product is subject to conformity until some new proof of conformity has been established. I have yet to see anything from the leave campaign over the issue of CE marking.

Of course you are quite right that the UK would be free to trade, any product available to trade, as a WTO member subject to the WTO tariff structure.

You cannot use what happened in the past as a reference as the rules of the game have changed.

Admire your optimism on the geography, should the UK leave the EU there is every chance that Scotland will leave the UK.

True enough Sandy, but I can only speak as we stand now without speculation.

There was every chance last time but they bottled it.

Quite, and falls in line with what was posted in post 1109.

"the trend in previous UK referendums of a late swing to the status quo."

In a post Brexit vote however, there would be a lack of status quo.

[Orac]

I do see your point but from a personal point of view regarding the financial wellbeing of me and my family the value of the pound is crucial.

Though there may be a case for "taking one for the team" so to speak, I do not think it has been made and I do not think they would be able to carry out their economic plan as it would be unpalatable to the general population once they realised what they were signed up to. Free market economics look nice on paper but when people realise what policies like freeing up the labour market and open competition actually mean in practice and how it affects things like their incomes, job security and social institutions like the NHS then i think they would soon regret voting away those protections that, being under the umbrella of the EU, they currently get.

Orac.

I do see and I also understand your point. From your viewpoint I would suggest that you do a bit of research on '' Benefits '' in the EU context and then research when '' Benefits '' cease to be paid outside the EU.

You might just want to rethink your financial wellbeing.

No scaremongering intended.

I have no reliance on benefits - if the state pension is still there when i am old enough to claim that would be a bonus. I do however have a large chunk of capital tied up in the UK denominated in sterling that I can do little about hence the importance of the exchange rate. If the brexit economic plan was plausible then it wouldn't be a problem waiting it out for 5-10 years for things to pick up but, as i said before, i don't think their plan is feasible.

I was not suggesting that you were reliant on benefits. Please accept my apologies if that was how it came across.

It was the State Pension I was alluding to. It is classed as a benefit for a reason It is very likely that you and I, and others, will not see the State Pension if we continue to reside outside the EU.

Apologies not required. I took your comment as a general statement rather than a personal slight which there have been far too many of on this thread from both sides.

I may be misunderstanding your point about state pensions possibly being discontinued for those living outside the EU as surely if the UK were to leave it would apply to all those living outside the UK and would have a massive effect on the numerous pensioners living in Spain and such like.

[sandyf]

We were not discussing Switzerland and Norway, the issue was China. I can't be bothered to revisit the trade arrangements of N and the Swiss as this has been explained at length. The issue is whether WTO tariffs would be a burden on exporters.

The UK will have little choice than to trade under the WTO tariff structure. The Brexit camp are just a bit reluctant to say so.

The UK would not be able to participate in the single market unless it is prepared to recognise the European Court of Justice, which effectively makes it a non starter.

This in fact raises some interesting possibilities. What if David Cameron decided to stay on and as part of the exit negotiations takes on the single market, agrees to the EU court and the free movement of labour.

Out of the EU but any better off?

[SgtRock]

We were not discussing Switzerland and Norway, the issue was China. I can't be bothered to revisit the trade arrangements of N and the Swiss as this has been explained at length. The issue is whether WTO tariffs would be a burden on exporters.

The UK will have little choice than to trade under the WTO tariff structure. The Brexit camp are just a bit reluctant to say so.

The UK would not be able to participate in the single market unless it is prepared to recognise the European Court of Justice, which effectively makes it a non starter.

This in fact raises some interesting possibilities. What if David Cameron decided to stay on and as part of the exit negotiations takes on the single market, agrees to the EU court and the free movement of labour.

Out of the EU but any better off?

Can you clarify that you mean the European Court of Justice Sandy ? The UK does recognise the ECJ and even held the Presidency sometime in the 80's.

[billd766]

Heres one for Grouse......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/scottish-taxpayers-facing-125-million-fines-after-snp-farm-payme/?ref=yfp

I would hate to think what might happen if the UK public were made aware of the cumulative amount of taxpayer money that is wasted every year.

The most common reason that I heard for this is because '' We have to abide by EU Regulations '' which I think is nothing more than a feeble excuse.

The solution is simple.

Boot the EU into touch. Start holding UK Politicians accountable for every penny spent and make it clear, if they ( **** ) up they will be held responsible.

Edited to add.

The SNP, those great liberal democrats are just like every other Politician and Party. 3 have just had their Commons credit cards suspended and a further 2 are currently being investigated for funding their love triangle with a political hack with taxpayers money.

What part of the farmers' payments debacle are you blaming on the EU?

What part of the Westminster MPs credit card issue are you blaming on the EU?

Which part of the love triangle are you blaming on the EU?

Honestly, the level of "debate" on here is now so low that it is becoming not worth contributing.

Are any moderators looking at this off topic tabloid nonsense?

Why are you bothering to read the posts let alone reply to then. If they obviously don't meet your high standards ignore the topic.

[SgtRock]

Heres one for Grouse......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/scottish-taxpayers-facing-125-million-fines-after-snp-farm-payme/?ref=yfp

I would hate to think what might happen if the UK public were made aware of the cumulative amount of taxpayer money that is wasted every year.

The most common reason that I heard for this is because '' We have to abide by EU Regulations '' which I think is nothing more than a feeble excuse.

The solution is simple.

Boot the EU into touch. Start holding UK Politicians accountable for every penny spent and make it clear, if they ( **** ) up they will be held responsible.

Edited to add.

The SNP, those great liberal democrats are just like every other Politician and Party. 3 have just had their Commons credit cards suspended and a further 2 are currently being investigated for funding their love triangle with a political hack with taxpayers money.

What part of the farmers' payments debacle are you blaming on the EU?

What part of the Westminster MPs credit card issue are you blaming on the EU?

Which part of the love triangle are you blaming on the EU?

Honestly, the level of "debate" on here is now so low that it is becoming not worth contributing.

Are any moderators looking at this off topic tabloid nonsense?

Why are you bothering to read the posts let alone reply to then. If they obviously don't meet your high standards ignore the topic.

Good spot billd

Great unwashed / levels of education, read the FT and general insults do not constitute worthwhile contributions.

Perhaps he should heed your own advice.

Edited May 21, 2016 by SgtRock

[dick dasterdly]

The European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker. Another freeloader, who went into Politics at the age of 20 and has never had a job. Oh yes people, yet another one. Has this to say.

European Commission boss Jean-Claude Juncker has warned the UK that "deserters won’t be welcomed back with open arms".

In hard-hitting comments, which have sparked accusations of intimidation among eurosceptics, he said the UK would "have to bear the consequences" if it voted to quit the 28-member bloc.

In the event of Britain breaking away, it "would be considered a third party and one we won’t suck up to", he added.

http://news.sky.com/story/1699424/eu-chief-juncker-warns-uk-over-deserters

Feeling the heat Juncker ? Are you now having nightmares about your gravy train, not just coming to end, but slamming into the abyss in a fatal crash.

I would have thought, that you of all people, would understand that Brits really do not take kindly to threats.

Will people like Juncker ever learn that the average Brit is nothing like the French, they will never roll over and surrender so easily. They will go along for so long and then just stubbornly dig in.

As far as I have seen, the French are a LOT less acquiescent when their jobs and income are put 'on the line'! Blockades etc.

Edit - If the Brits reacted as badly as the French when their income was downgraded/likely to be downgraded - we would probably have a far better government.

Edited May 21, 2016 by dick dasterdly

[sandyf]

We were not discussing Switzerland and Norway, the issue was China. I can't be bothered to revisit the trade arrangements of N and the Swiss as this has been explained at length. The issue is whether WTO tariffs would be a burden on exporters.

The UK will have little choice than to trade under the WTO tariff structure. The Brexit camp are just a bit reluctant to say so.

The UK would not be able to participate in the single market unless it is prepared to recognise the European Court of Justice, which effectively makes it a non starter.

This in fact raises some interesting possibilities. What if David Cameron decided to stay on and as part of the exit negotiations takes on the single market, agrees to the EU court and the free movement of labour.

Out of the EU but any better off?

Can you clarify that you mean the European Court of Justice Sandy ? The UK does recognise the ECJ and even held the Presidency sometime in the 80's.

Of course the UK is subject to the ECJ, it is the EU court. The European Court of Human Rights is not an EU institution.

In the event of a Brexit that would no longer apply, a point pushed by the Brexit camp. Any country outside the EU that participates in the single market must recognise the ECJ.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ), officially just the Court of Justice (French: Cour de Justice), is the highest court in the European Union in matters of European Union law.

[dick dasterdly]

I do see your point but from a personal point of view regarding the financial wellbeing of me and my family the value of the pound is crucial.

Though there may be a case for "taking one for the team" so to speak, I do not think it has been made and I do not think they would be able to carry out their economic plan as it would be unpalatable to the general population once they realised what they were signed up to. Free market economics look nice on paper but when people realise what policies like freeing up the labour market and open competition actually mean in practice and how it affects things like their incomes, job security and social institutions like the NHS then i think they would soon regret voting away those protections that, being under the umbrella of the EU, they currently get.

Orac.

I do see and I also understand your point. From your viewpoint I would suggest that you do a bit of research on '' Benefits '' in the EU context and then research when '' Benefits '' cease to be paid outside the EU.

You might just want to rethink your financial wellbeing.

No scaremongering intended.

I have no reliance on benefits - if the state pension is still there when i am old enough to claim that would be a bonus. I do however have a large chunk of capital tied up in the UK denominated in sterling that I can do little about hence the importance of the exchange rate. If the brexit economic plan was plausible then it wouldn't be a problem waiting it out for 5-10 years for things to pick up but, as i said before, i don't think their plan is feasible.

Like you, I have no reliance on the 'state pension' - and doubt it will be paid to expats by the time I am old enough to qualify.

I rely on personal pensions from previous employers, and consequently would be badly affected if sterling falls significantly. But this is another unknown, and I suspect that markets will have already taken this into account - so sterling is unlikely to fall very far. Even so, I can understand that sterling is a 'known' at the moment in the EU, whereas it is an 'unknown' if the UK leaves the EU.

Having said all this, I think I've finally decided to vote Brexit in the hope that it would lead to both the EU and Brit. governments being forced to reform.

i.e.

a) The EU would realise that the UK leaving is another indicator that the EU is about to collapse - so reform is unavoidable and

the Brit. govt. will realise that they have lost all credibility - as 'better the devil you know' normally holds the day.

On the other hand, I'm not even sure whether I should vote - as the decision will affect me less than those still living in the UK !

[dick dasterdly]

Heres one for Grouse......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/scottish-taxpayers-facing-125-million-fines-after-snp-farm-payme/?ref=yfp

I would hate to think what might happen if the UK public were made aware of the cumulative amount of taxpayer money that is wasted every year.

The most common reason that I heard for this is because '' We have to abide by EU Regulations '' which I think is nothing more than a feeble excuse.

The solution is simple.

Boot the EU into touch. Start holding UK Politicians accountable for every penny spent and make it clear, if they ( **** ) up they will be held responsible.

Edited to add.

The SNP, those great liberal democrats are just like every other Politician and Party. 3 have just had their Commons credit cards suspended and a further 2 are currently being investigated for funding their love triangle with a political hack with taxpayers money.

What part of the farmers' payments debacle are you blaming on the EU?

What part of the Westminster MPs credit card issue are you blaming on the EU?

Which part of the love triangle are you blaming on the EU?

Honestly, the level of "debate" on here is now so low that it is becoming not worth contributing.

Are any moderators looking at this off topic tabloid nonsense?

Why are you bothering to read the posts let alone reply to then. If they obviously don't meet your high standards ignore the topic.

Be fair - Grouse gives us someone arrogant enough to seriously dislike in this debate!

Actually, I'm beginning to wonder if he is an 'agent provocateur', as so many of his posts are OTT arrogant?

[dick dasterdly]

We were not discussing Switzerland and Norway, the issue was China. I can't be bothered to revisit the trade arrangements of N and the Swiss as this has been explained at length. The issue is whether WTO tariffs would be a burden on exporters.

The UK will have little choice than to trade under the WTO tariff structure. The Brexit camp are just a bit reluctant to say so.

The UK would not be able to participate in the single market unless it is prepared to recognise the European Court of Justice, which effectively makes it a non starter.

This in fact raises some interesting possibilities. What if David Cameron decided to stay on and as part of the exit negotiations takes on the single market, agrees to the EU court and the free movement of labour.

Out of the EU but any better off?

Can you clarify that you mean the European Court of Justice Sandy ? The UK does recognise the ECJ and even held the Presidency sometime in the 80's.

Of course the UK is subject to the ECJ, it is the EU court. The European Court of Human Rights is not an EU institution.

In the event of a Brexit that would no longer apply, a point pushed by the Brexit camp. Any country outside the EU that participates in the single market must recognise the ECJ.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ), officially just the Court of Justice (French: Cour de Justice), is the highest court in the European Union in matters of European Union law.

Forgive my ignorance here, but I think one of those Courts said Julian Assange was being held unfairly (or words to that effect?). It changed nothing in that case, so Brit. Courts still have power in that area?

Unfortunate from my POV, as if there is one case in which the Brit. Courts and govt. need to be held to account - its the Assange case IMO.

Sorry, off topic I know.

[Grouse]

Heres one for Grouse......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/19/scottish-taxpayers-facing-125-million-fines-after-snp-farm-payme/?ref=yfp

Yes, outrageous incompetence! Similar situation with delayed payments to Farmers in England and Wales

But what is your point? Anti SNP? So what, so am I. But off topic

Anti EU? Why?

My point is the UK is handing over zillions of quid for f___ all to foreigners...

I thought this was about payments to Scottish farmers? Did I misread the article?

No you didn't read it wrong...Scotland is part of the UK, find a huge amount of money to EU coffers...

PS. Stop calling posters idiots in other posts, makes you look an idiot..

Again, maybe I'm misunderstanding but this is EU money for Scottish farmers and the cash has not been distributed? I must be misunderstanding something? Maybe I am stupid!

As for your other comment, I had indeed moderated my rhetoric. However, I will respond to direct insults particularly purile ones ?

[Orac]

I do see your point but from a personal point of view regarding the financial wellbeing of me and my family the value of the pound is crucial.

Though there may be a case for "taking one for the team" so to speak, I do not think it has been made and I do not think they would be able to carry out their economic plan as it would be unpalatable to the general population once they realised what they were signed up to. Free market economics look nice on paper but when people realise what policies like freeing up the labour market and open competition actually mean in practice and how it affects things like their incomes, job security and social institutions like the NHS then i think they would soon regret voting away those protections that, being under the umbrella of the EU, they currently get.

Orac.

I do see and I also understand your point. From your viewpoint I would suggest that you do a bit of research on '' Benefits '' in the EU context and then research when '' Benefits '' cease to be paid outside the EU.

You might just want to rethink your financial wellbeing.

No scaremongering intended.

I have no reliance on benefits - if the state pension is still there when i am old enough to claim that would be a bonus. I do however have a large chunk of capital tied up in the UK denominated in sterling that I can do little about hence the importance of the exchange rate. If the brexit economic plan was plausible then it wouldn't be a problem waiting it out for 5-10 years for things to pick up but, as i said before, i don't think their plan is feasible.

Like you, I have no reliance on the 'state pension' - and doubt it will be paid to expats by the time I am old enough to qualify.

I rely on personal pensions from previous employers, and consequently would be badly affected if sterling falls significantly. But this is another unknown, and I suspect that markets will have already taken this into account - so sterling is unlikely to fall very far. Even so, I can understand that sterling is a 'known' at the moment in the EU, whereas it is an 'unknown' if the UK leaves the EU.

Having said all this, I think I've finally decided to vote Brexit in the hope that it would lead to both the EU and Brit. governments being forced to reform.

i.e.

a) The EU would realise that the UK leaving is another indicator that the EU is about to collapse - so reform is unavoidable and

the Brit. govt. will realise that they have lost all credibility - as 'better the devil you know' normally holds the day.

On the other hand, I'm not even sure whether I should vote - as the decision will affect me less than those still living in the UK !

The economic case for brexit laid out in the document that SgtRock provided earlier seem to make it very clear that the devaluing of the exchange rate is an expected consequence if not a desired aim with quotes such as:

""The higher output drives down the exchange rate as new markets are sought by exporters."

Even if the markets had fully taken this into account which is unlikely since the decision is nowhere near clear cut yet, it should recover if the vote is to remain.

[sandyf]

I do see your point but from a personal point of view regarding the financial wellbeing of me and my family the value of the pound is crucial.

Though there may be a case for "taking one for the team" so to speak, I do not think it has been made and I do not think they would be able to carry out their economic plan as it would be unpalatable to the general population once they realised what they were signed up to. Free market economics look nice on paper but when people realise what policies like freeing up the labour market and open competition actually mean in practice and how it affects things like their incomes, job security and social institutions like the NHS then i think they would soon regret voting away those protections that, being under the umbrella of the EU, they currently get.

Orac.

I do see and I also understand your point. From your viewpoint I would suggest that you do a bit of research on '' Benefits '' in the EU context and then research when '' Benefits '' cease to be paid outside the EU.

You might just want to rethink your financial wellbeing.

No scaremongering intended.

I think that you are misinterpreting the term 'benefit'. I am aware that it is used by the DWP but it is a separate entity entirely to social security.

If you look at your income tax analysis you see separate payments to 'welfare' and 'state pension'.

At this point in time there is no reason why state pension should not continue, obviously frozen for those no longer in the EU. The state pension is not entirely dependent on NI contributions, shortfall comes from general taxation. Last year 12.5 percent of personal tax went to prop up the state pension.

[allanos]

For those who believe that the pound (GBP) will enter into a sustained fall upon a withdrawal from the EU,

and that, therefore, their sterling holdings or remittances from the United Kingdom will be lessened, there

is a remarkably simple and easy solution.

Take out some Put Options, and "bet" that the pound will fall. It is a kind of insurance, and not without

some cost (as is the case with all insurances) but you will, in effect, be "hedging" your bet that the currency

will decline.

My personal belief is that the long time loser, in the event of a British exit, will be the Euro, and I will be selling

the Euro short the closer we get to the Referendum on June, 23rd.

So if you fervently believe the posts you have been making to the effect that the pound is going to drop, big

time, call your broker. Now. And put your money where your mouth is.

[Rimmer]

A flame has been removed, as already pointed out if you don't like the topic move on but do not troll and flame in it.

7) You will respect fellow members and post in a civil manner. No personal attacks, hateful or insulting towards other members, (flaming) Stalking of members on either the forum or via PM will not be allowed.

[dick dasterdly]

Like you, I have no reliance on the 'state pension' - and doubt it will be paid to expats by the time I am old enough to qualify.

I rely on personal pensions from previous employers, and consequently would be badly affected if sterling falls significantly. But this is another unknown, and I suspect that markets will have already taken this into account - so sterling is unlikely to fall very far. Even so, I can understand that sterling is a 'known' at the moment in the EU, whereas it is an 'unknown' if the UK leaves the EU.

Having said all this, I think I've finally decided to vote Brexit in the hope that it would lead to both the EU and Brit. governments being forced to reform.

i.e.

a) The EU would realise that the UK leaving is another indicator that the EU is about to collapse - so reform is unavoidable and

the Brit. govt. will realise that they have lost all credibility - as 'better the devil you know' normally holds the day.

On the other hand, I'm not even sure whether I should vote - as the decision will affect me less than those still living in the UK !

The economic case for brexit laid out in the document that SgtRock provided earlier seem to make it very clear that the devaluing of the exchange rate is an expected consequence if not a desired aim with quotes such as:

""The higher output drives down the exchange rate as new markets are sought by exporters."

Even if the markets had fully taken this into account which is unlikely since the decision is nowhere near clear cut yet, it should recover if the vote is to remain.

And once again we're into unknown territory.

Being a realist, I do expect sterling to fall slightly, but only slightly - unless it falls significantly just before the date of the vote and doesn't recover.

But as I mentioned - my main concern is that the EU and Brit. govt. are forced to reform.

Edit - Sorry, I messed up the 'quotes' .

Edited May 21, 2016 by dick dasterdly

[Grouse]

Latest odds are 82% remain (2/9)

[allanos]

Latest odds are 82% remain (2/9)

That's it then; an elegantly mathematical outcome without the need for a costly referendum.

We simply ask the bookies what the odds are for an "in" or "out" vote (yet to take place, of course),

and accept the odds that they are quoting as being definitive.

[Grouse]

Latest odds are 82% remain (2/9)

Is that your local betting shop............

What? In Thailand?

No, from odds checker - on line

[Grouse]

Latest odds are 82% remain (2/9)

That's it then; an elegantly mathematical outcome without the need for a costly referendum.

We simply ask the bookies what the odds are for an "in" or "out" vote (yet to take place, of course),

and accept the odds that they are quoting as being definitive.

Don't be a silly billy

It's not over 'til.......

BUT bookies are usually on the money!

BTW, Brexit is 7/2 or 22%

Don't worry, probably a scare tactic. ?

Edited May 21, 2016 by Grouse

[dick dasterdly]

For those who believe that the pound (GBP) will enter into a sustained fall upon a withdrawal from the EU,

and that, therefore, their sterling holdings or remittances from the United Kingdom will be lessened, there

is a remarkably simple and easy solution.

Take out some Put Options, and "bet" that the pound will fall. It is a kind of insurance, and not without

some cost (as is the case with all insurances) but you will, in effect, be "hedging" your bet that the currency

will decline.

My personal belief is that the long time loser, in the event of a British exit, will be the Euro, and I will be selling

the Euro short the closer we get to the Referendum on June, 23rd.

So if you fervently believe the posts you have been making to the effect that the pound is going to drop, big

time, call your broker. Now. And put your money where your mouth is.

I agree in that if the UK votes for Brexit, the euro is likely to fall far harder than sterling.

[Grouse]

For those who believe that the pound (GBP) will enter into a sustained fall upon a withdrawal from the EU,

and that, therefore, their sterling holdings or remittances from the United Kingdom will be lessened, there

is a remarkably simple and easy solution.

Take out some Put Options, and "bet" that the pound will fall. It is a kind of insurance, and not without

some cost (as is the case with all insurances) but you will, in effect, be "hedging" your bet that the currency

will decline.

My personal belief is that the long time loser, in the event of a British exit, will be the Euro, and I will be selling

the Euro short the closer we get to the Referendum on June, 23rd.

So if you fervently believe the posts you have been making to the effect that the pound is going to drop, big

time, call your broker. Now. And put your money where your mouth is.

I agree in that if the UK votes for Brexit, the euro is likely to fall far harder than sterling.

At the risk of APPEARING to be arrogant...

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LGBB:LN

This gives GBP against G10 basket which is a better indicator IMO

[dick dasterdly]

Latest odds are 82% remain (2/9)

That sounds a bit optimistic to me, but then again people do tend to prefer certainty over uncertainty - so perhaps its not as ridiculous as it sounds.

[dick dasterdly]

For those who believe that the pound (GBP) will enter into a sustained fall upon a withdrawal from the EU,

and that, therefore, their sterling holdings or remittances from the United Kingdom will be lessened, there

is a remarkably simple and easy solution.

Take out some Put Options, and "bet" that the pound will fall. It is a kind of insurance, and not without

some cost (as is the case with all insurances) but you will, in effect, be "hedging" your bet that the currency

will decline.

My personal belief is that the long time loser, in the event of a British exit, will be the Euro, and I will be selling

the Euro short the closer we get to the Referendum on June, 23rd.

So if you fervently believe the posts you have been making to the effect that the pound is going to drop, big

time, call your broker. Now. And put your money where your mouth is.

I agree in that if the UK votes for Brexit, the euro is likely to fall far harder than sterling.

At the risk of APPEARING to be arrogant...

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LGBB:LN

This gives GBP against G10 basket which is a better indicator IMO

No Grouse (there, there - soothe, soothe), you don't appear to be arrogant - you're posts are arrogant in the extreme. Which is why I wonder whether you are an 'agent provocateur'?

[Grouse]

Latest odds are 82% remain (2/9)

That sounds a bit optimistic to me, but then again people do tend to prefer certainty over uncertainty - so perhaps its not as ridiculous as it sounds.

wildly optimistic! I wonder what it's based on? I would have guessed 55/45...