Mixed economic growth forecast by state and private sectors

[webfact]

Mixed economic growth forecast by state and private sectors



BANGKOK: -- The Center for Economic and Business Research of the Siam Commercial Bank forecasts economic growth this year at 2.5% and total exports for 2016 to contract by 2.1%.

It stated that even though the US economy is showing strong signs of rebounding it is still comparatively fragile.

As for China’s economy, it is undergoing a massive restructuring which will mean a significant drop in demand for raw materials from Thailand.

It then stated that it will be some time yet before the country’s exports fully recover and furthermore, Thailand must modernize its goods and products to remain competitive.

But Finance Minister Aphisak Tantiworawong who chaired a national economic and investment stimulus meeting stated that he was confident that the GDP will grow by no less than 3%.

He stated that this was due to the improving export situation which will be complimented by the 130 billion Baht influx of investment capital into major infrastructure projects later this year.

This will increase private sector confidence which will ensure greater investment in national projects such as the government backed ‘Ban Pracharat’ low cost housing project which will in turn help to stimulate real-estate development.

Furthermore, he said that local commercial banks are steadily lowering interest rates on loans which will greatly help lower the overheads of businesses.

Mr Banthoon Lamsom, the chairman of Kasikorn Bank, also confirmed that the national economy was showing signs of recovery as a result of the sustained growth in exports in February and March but cautioned that Thailand’s exporters are still dependent demand from its customers.

At present, the export outlook is still being marred by the possibility of the EU red-carding the country’s fisheries sector.

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/content/161023

-- Thai PBS 2016-04-26

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Thai exports grow two consecutive months

BANGKOK, 26 April 2016 (NNT) - The Ministry of Commerce has maintained its export growth forecast at a minimum of 5% this year, after Thai exports recorded growth for two consecutive months.

Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee has revealed that last month’s exports increased from the month before by 1.3% or at a value of 19 billion US dollars. March exports mostly consisted of auto parts and farm goods.

The increase from February to March has resulted in 0.9% overall export growth in the first quarter and brought the total value of exports to 54 billion dollars.

On the other hand, imports have declined by 12% compared to the year before. Despite the overall decline, demand has increased for foreign capital goods.

The Deputy Commerce Minister also indicated that tourism has remained a major driver of the Thai economic growth. Thailand earned 405 billion baht in tourism revenue, after nine million tourists visited Thailand during the first quarter.


-- NNT 2016-04-26

[Pib]

Different crystal balls made by the Wild Ass Guess Company give different guesstimates.

[jamesbrock]

So the economists at the Center for Economic and Business Research of the Siam Commercial Bank forecasts economic growth to be lower than the non-economists-propagandists from the government? Quelle surprise!

Edited April 26, 2016 by jamesbrock

[Stan7444]

What a bunch of jokers. 1) The US economy is not strong so not Thailany fault, 2) China economy restructuring so not Thailand fault, 3) EU might ban some Thailand imports. NOT OUR FAULT!!!

What in the Hell does this economy and it's lackeys take responsibility for at all??? The US economy is very strong now and China is still importing lots of products. The EU ban problem is self made by Thailand.

Thailand needs to "modernize product"!!! How does one modernize silks, wood carvings, fish, and other export products???

Lastly, the railway infrastructure will contribute to Thailand economy. In 2016??? 2017??? How is this measured anyway? Last Transportation Ministry meeting I attended they had no financial justification nor ROI for railway infrastructure, let alone hi-speed trains.

Sad how people who are "supposed" economists, can blame everyone else and not this military dictatorship who does not know how to run a government.

[Robbie Dye]

Ok perfect time to devalue the ludicrous Baht??

[Srikcir]

SCB forecasts economic growth this year at 2.5% and total exports for 2016 to contract by 2.1%.

This is a new kind of economic math.

Exports account for 70% of GDP. If exports contract by 2.1% for the year, the remaining 30% driven by tourism, government stimulus and domestic enterprise must expand GDP by more than 13%. Based on a 2015 GDP of 395 billion USD, GDP must increase about 51.35 billion USD or 1.75 trillion baht to achieve total GDP growth rate of 2.5%.

But according to UTCC, the drought situation will virtually negates the government's 2016 economic stimulus efforts. This leaves domestic enterprise and tourism as the only drivers for GDP growth.

In 2015 tourism generated 2.25 trillion baht and the Ministry is projecting a total high potential of 2.4 trillion baht for 2016 - an increase to GDP of only about 0.15 trillion baht. This means that domestic enterprise must generate about 92% of GDP growth for 2016. Unlikely.