Foreign owned business closings ... worse than ever?

[sharecropper]

I've been here for 14 years and I think this is a serious downturn. Just the trip from Pattaya to Jomtien shows a slew of closed shops, some repeat failers. Even the Russians are failing now.

But some foreign-owned businesses here do thrive - or don't care about local economic conditions - because they are money laundering operations and can afford to pay off officials at exorbitant rates.

[Jingthing]

I've been here for 14 years and I think this is a serious downturn. Just the trip from Pattaya to Jomtien shows a slew of closed shops, some repeat failers. Even the Russians are failing now.

But some foreign-owned businesses here do thrive - or don't care about local economic conditions - because they are money laundering operations and can afford to pay off officials at exorbitant rates.

I'm not happy if good business people are suffering, but I'm pleased that others are confirming what I think I'm seeing. Not a normal rate of closures. More like an epidemic.

[Berty100]

The topic that was about business in thailand has turn to food and bar in pattaya... which is far from being the center of the world but is obviously it for many TV folks.

I have had a business in thailand for 15 years, in manufacturing, focusing on medium and large size companies. We employ 10 foreigners, used to have 15.

The labour dept is making our life more and more difficult each year to renew our WP to a point that we are wondering when they will simply say no instead or creating requests of new forms and documents as they do each year.

The economy is a mess, we have lost a large number of our customers who did not bother with trying to make it here anymore, and they have moved to Myanmar, Vietnam and Cambodia.

Our office in Myanmar and Cambodia are growing much faster, Thailand is shrinking, while 15 years ago we all believed Thailand had a bright future.

Unless someone at the government level realises this, we are heading straight into a wall. What need to change dramatically is:

1. Education, Thailand produces followers, not leaders. We have a very hard time making them managers.
2. Attitude to foreigners: we are not welcome anymore, we are supposed to invest and leave it to them to decide everything with our money
3. Values at work: reward the people who help you evolve with some loyalty, both ways, understanding there is a lot to learn after school

what we see in Thailand vs Myanmar/Cambodia is:

in Thailand

1. Entry level salary for newly university graduate, more than doubled in 10 years (from 15-20K to 45K baht).
2. Level of English stayed the same or maybe got worse
3. Attitude to work is worsened, it now looks like we should be grateful they work for us
4. Mobility has increased, Thai people change jobs for little money, no loyalty even if you train them 12 months
5. Admin and compliance to ever changing regulations from government is making our life extremely difficult and worrisome. Renewing your Visa is a moving target each year
6. Life is easier in Thailand as there are already so many facilities, Medical, quality hospital, international school, and rent remains at an acceptable level.
7. Not sure what to say about corruption, leave it to you to appreciate

in Myanmar/Cambodia

1. Salaries remain competitive for people you have to train, still 12-15K entry level. Will increase of course with time.
2. Level of English is much higher
3. They are happy to work for foreigners as they view it as a way to evolve and learn
4. Greater loyalty
5. Hard worker
6. No issues for WP or Visa, Helpful at any level to say the least.
7. Rent in Myanmar is too high still but going down as offer increases
8. Lack of services like road, electricity, medical and school still behind - but developing.
9. Corruption has been reduced dramatically.
10. Cambodia is very similar to Myanmar except Infrastructure and Service is much more developed. Life is easier than in Myanmar.

Would love to see if anyone sees this differently

FLG

Whatever difficulties you may have had growing your business, Thailand's GDP has more than doubled in the past 15 years so apparently others don't seem to have a problem growing their's.

And if you were keeping up with statistics you will find the GDP is slowly grinding to a halt over the last few years. The way things are going there is every chance it will be negative within 5 years. I expect your businesses are expanding at a rate of knots despite all that and that. Your astute business acumen will no doubt overcome the difficulties many others seem to have such as described in the post that you respond to with your cheap hollow throwaway lines. You expose yourself as an economic dunce.

No he is just trying to be in the same league as Jsixpack, being the number one apologist, but he fails miserable at that.

[Johpa]

one Chinese person who was formerly the Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley isn't so optimistic

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1919092/dont-listen-ruling-elite-world-economy-real-trouble

For a more thorough explanation for the global financial woes (although the closing of Farang owned bars in Pattaya are probably due largely to ineptitude and micro-economic issues) that Andrew Xie alludes to in his short article I highly recommend reading the brilliant economist Michael Hudson's recent book "Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Bondage Destroy the Global Economy". Xie has clearly read the book as he echoes some of the themes but he seems to be unwilling to completely abandon neoliberal junk economics.

[mrfaroukh]

I don't think this is just a slow season problem. I can see this trend is going on for almost 2 years since the Russian stop coming and other European stopped coming for some political problem here and financial problem in their home countires.

[mpyre]

one Chinese person who was formerly the Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley isn't so optimistic

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1919092/dont-listen-ruling-elite-world-economy-real-trouble

For a more thorough explanation for the global financial woes (although the closing of Farang owned bars in Pattaya are probably due largely to ineptitude and micro-economic issues) that Andrew Xie alludes to in his short article I highly recommend reading the brilliant economist Michael Hudson's recent book "Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Bondage Destroy the Global Economy". Xie has clearly read the book as he echoes some of the themes but he seems to be unwilling to completely abandon neoliberal junk economics.

Excellent book that addresses the causes of the our global financial disease, and not just the symptoms. Thanks for suggesting it.

[catman20]

too many people trying to make a living doing the same old thing with their divorce settlement or pension. restaurant, bike hire, massage shop for the girlfriend the list goes on and not enough customers.

[OMGImInPattaya]

The Pattaya-Thailand doom and gloom gang is strong in this thread...too bad I've been reading such posts for 10 years or more...and yet Pattaya and Thailand keeps going from strength to strength. I'm sorry if your girlfriend's or boyfriend's beauty salon, massage shop, or possibly your beer-bar crashed and burned but these failures are hardly of any consequence to the local or national economy.

What i read in the paper and see with my own eyes is news of new factories, shopping malls, and entertainment venues (no, not beer-bar plazas or gogos but things like Ramayana and Terminal 21) that continue to grow and expand. I think most of the naysayers here are still angry that Central Beach ripped out a huge swath of beer-bars when it was built and they still haven't gotten over this and as this is the kind of decelopment they abhor they wish new businesses to fail so Pattaya can return to its sleepy days of yore. Sorry, it ain't gonna happen.

Sure there is political instability that seems to be never ending and that's certainly no help but the economic fundamentals are still decent. All countries have issues that could be improved and with time Thailand will continue to make incremental progress. For business folks, it's either adapt or die.

[Berty100]

The Pattaya-Thailand doom and gloom gang is strong in this thread...too bad I've been reading such posts for 10 years or more...and yet Pattaya and Thailand keeps going from strength to strength. I'm sorry if your girlfriend's or boyfriend's beauty salon, massage shop, or possibly your beer-bar crashed and burned but these failures are hardly of any consequence to the local or national economy.

What i read in the paper and see with my own eyes is news of new factories, shopping malls, and entertainment venues (no, not beer-bar plazas or gogos but things like Ramayana and Terminal 21) that continue to grow and expand. I think most of the naysayers here are still angry that Central Beach ripped out a huge swath of beer-bars when it was built and they still haven't gotten over this and as this is the kind of decelopment they abhor they wish new businesses to fail so Pattaya can return to its sleepy days of yore. Sorry, it ain't gonna happen.

Sure there is political instability that seems to be never ending and that's certainly no help but the economic fundamentals are still decent. All countries have issues that could be improved and with time Thailand will continue to make incremental progress. For business folks, it's either adapt or die.

May be you should get out a bit more and discover the several condo buildings that have stalled for more than 10 years, or the new build hotels that never have been occupied, and where trees grow through the roof. Or the newly build ghost villages where the houses have never been completed, let stand occupied.

But hey, up to you id you prefer to continue with the blinkers on, just to sound knowledgeable.

[OMGImInPattaya]

Some go out of business or close and relocate due to their lease being up for renewal.

The landlord then increases the rent hugely, forcing people to decide if it's worth it anymore.

I know of three bars that have relocated (one only across the same Soi) owing to the large rent increase.

Makes my point...most here are just worried about bar closures due to commercial landlords being able to raise rents because higher value tenants are moving into the area...but of course, to some this equates to "business closings worse than ever." ?

[OMGImInPattaya]

The Pattaya-Thailand doom and gloom gang is strong in this thread...too bad I've been reading such posts for 10 years or more...and yet Pattaya and Thailand keeps going from strength to strength. I'm sorry if your girlfriend's or boyfriend's beauty salon, massage shop, or possibly your beer-bar crashed and burned but these failures are hardly of any consequence to the local or national economy.

What i read in the paper and see with my own eyes is news of new factories, shopping malls, and entertainment venues (no, not beer-bar plazas or gogos but things like Ramayana and Terminal 21) that continue to grow and expand. I think most of the naysayers here are still angry that Central Beach ripped out a huge swath of beer-bars when it was built and they still haven't gotten over this and as this is the kind of decelopment they abhor they wish new businesses to fail so Pattaya can return to its sleepy days of yore. Sorry, it ain't gonna happen.

Sure there is political instability that seems to be never ending and that's certainly no help but the economic fundamentals are still decent. All countries have issues that could be improved and with time Thailand will continue to make incremental progress. For business folks, it's either adapt or die.

May be you should get out a bit more and discover the several condo buildings that have stalled for more than 10 years, or the new build hotels that never have been occupied, and where trees grow through the roof. Or the newly build ghost villages where the houses have never been completed, let stand occupied.

But hey, up to you id you prefer to continue with the blinkers on, just to sound knowledgeable.

Are you talking about Las Vegas...because I thought this was a Pattaya related thread?

[Berty100]

The Pattaya-Thailand doom and gloom gang is strong in this thread...too bad I've been reading such posts for 10 years or more...and yet Pattaya and Thailand keeps going from strength to strength. I'm sorry if your girlfriend's or boyfriend's beauty salon, massage shop, or possibly your beer-bar crashed and burned but these failures are hardly of any consequence to the local or national economy.

What i read in the paper and see with my own eyes is news of new factories, shopping malls, and entertainment venues (no, not beer-bar plazas or gogos but things like Ramayana and Terminal 21) that continue to grow and expand. I think most of the naysayers here are still angry that Central Beach ripped out a huge swath of beer-bars when it was built and they still haven't gotten over this and as this is the kind of decelopment they abhor they wish new businesses to fail so Pattaya can return to its sleepy days of yore. Sorry, it ain't gonna happen.

Sure there is political instability that seems to be never ending and that's certainly no help but the economic fundamentals are still decent. All countries have issues that could be improved and with time Thailand will continue to make incremental progress. For business folks, it's either adapt or die.

May be you should get out a bit more and discover the several condo buildings that have stalled for more than 10 years, or the new build hotels that never have been occupied, and where trees grow through the roof. Or the newly build ghost villages where the houses have never been completed, let stand occupied.

But hey, up to you id you prefer to continue with the blinkers on, just to sound knowledgeable.

Are you talking about Las Vegas...because I thought this was a Pattaya related thread?

Told you to get out more, instead of playing the apologist, then you should be aware that everything i summed up is located IN PATTAYA.

[OMGImInPattaya]

The Pattaya-Thailand doom and gloom gang is strong in this thread...too bad I've been reading such posts for 10 years or more...and yet Pattaya and Thailand keeps going from strength to strength. I'm sorry if your girlfriend's or boyfriend's beauty salon, massage shop, or possibly your beer-bar crashed and burned but these failures are hardly of any consequence to the local or national economy.

What i read in the paper and see with my own eyes is news of new factories, shopping malls, and entertainment venues (no, not beer-bar plazas or gogos but things like Ramayana and Terminal 21) that continue to grow and expand. I think most of the naysayers here are still angry that Central Beach ripped out a huge swath of beer-bars when it was built and they still haven't gotten over this and as this is the kind of decelopment they abhor they wish new businesses to fail so Pattaya can return to its sleepy days of yore. Sorry, it ain't gonna happen.

Sure there is political instability that seems to be never ending and that's certainly no help but the economic fundamentals are still decent. All countries have issues that could be improved and with time Thailand will continue to make incremental progress. For business folks, it's either adapt or die.

May be you should get out a bit more and discover the several condo buildings that have stalled for more than 10 years, or the new build hotels that never have been occupied, and where trees grow through the roof. Or the newly build ghost villages where the houses have never been completed, let stand occupied.

But hey, up to you id you prefer to continue with the blinkers on, just to sound knowledgeable.

Are you talking about Las Vegas...because I thought this was a Pattaya related thread?

Told you to get out more, instead of playing the apologist, then you should be aware that everything i summed up is located IN PATTAYA.

Nothing gets past you does it. ?

[fosseway]

Certainly right Jingthing. Friend, who supplies mostly foreign run restaurants & pubs etc. in BKK area tells me more than 40% of his clients have shut down last 18 months and he expects worse to come. Just check out the hundreds & hundreds of shop-houses along main roads closed down in Pattaya. Seems that many of the businesses in prime area like Bouakao keep rotating owners. Plenty of suckers around... Guess, only few really make a living, but might be wrong. Glad I never got sucked into starting something here, must be very! difficult. MS>

I agree with the above and hope this is relevant here as to business closures, and shop houses, This may have been discussed before here, but the total number of shophouses in Pattaya is monumental, they line every Soi and street in the City, How to hazard a guess at the total number,? would it be 10,000 or even double? its no wonder many are closed, and they are still building more as we speak. I am still hearing that some of the rents / lease contracts are very high.

I also see some start ups in isolated locations, with very little footfall and no parking, I feel from the start they are doomed to failure, this being said, I do feel that in the "shophouse business" it will come down to the survival of the fittest.

[Asiantravel]

There was a segment on Channel News Asia this morning which showed it’s not just businesses in Pattaya that are finding it very tough. It’s quite evident people everywhere are no longer spending anywhere near as much on items that were not so long ago a hot topic.

Today in Taiwan all the huge technology companies (e.g. Acer, Asus etc ) are meeting in a tradeshow in a desperate attempt to try to stimulate demand. The news reader unbelievably acknowledged these companies have confessed they are now facing difficulties because so many people are no longer spending. These major companies have managed to get by so far by severe cost-cutting but they said they can’t do that any more. They are now trying to get people to spend on items they have never bought before such as virtual reality headsets and other new items.

It sounds like the public know something regarding the global economy has changed significantly and are carefully watching their money and I think we will see less unnecessary spending everywhere.

[RoyEngland]

Nothing gets past you does it. ?

I don't know if it's only me.. but I find his posts embarrassing. Some people just don't know when to speak or quiet simply shut-up

[RoyEngland]

The future for business in Thailand speaks Chinese

one Chinese person who was formerly the Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley isn't so optimistic

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1919092/dont-listen-ruling-elite-world-economy-real-trouble

This is an excellent article and should be required reading for anyone reading this thread (to mention only the expat few!).

See also the work of Jim Rickards.

Yes, a good read however isn't China the last to suffer from the economic crisis of 2008/9? What China has done is over grow, and with spending as low as it is, manufacting is suffering.

Back to topic. I do think western business owner rights over the years have changed.. now that the country thinks it has powers to self develop, westerns are now a thing of the past.

[Asiantravel]

The future for business in Thailand speaks Chinese

one Chinese person who was formerly the Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley isn't so optimistic

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1919092/dont-listen-ruling-elite-world-economy-real-trouble

This is an excellent article and should be required reading for anyone reading this thread (to mention only the expat few!).

See also the work of Jim Rickards.

Yes, a good read however isn't China the last to suffer from the economic crisis of 2008/9? What China has done is over grow, and with spending as low as it is, manufacting is suffering.

Back to topic. I do think western business owner rights over the years have changed.. now that the country thinks it has powers to self develop, westerns are now a thing of the past.

" however isn't China the last to suffer from the economic crisis of 2008/9? "

the big problem is after the 2007 financial crisis everyone relied on China to be the financial shock absorber for rest of the world, a role which it certainly can no longer fulfil and so now there are no shock absorbers left anywhere. (It was hoped by now USA would be back to carrying out this role but we can definitely dismiss that one)

http://blogs.ft.com/the-exchange/2015/08/19/12621/

[RoyEngland]

" however isn't China the last to suffer from the economic crisis of 2008/9? "

the big problem is after the 2007 financial crisis everyone relied on China to be the financial shock absorber for rest of the world, a role which it certainly can no longer fulfil and so now there are no shock absorbers left anywhere. (It was hoped by now USA would be back to carrying out this role but we can definitely dismiss that one)

http://blogs.ft.com/the-exchange/2015/08/19/12621/

Well that is it, they are looking to everyone to ease or eradicate the burden, due to them financing the resolve of the latest recession.. but wasnt that financial resolve/debt incurred with huge interest rates?

China is fast becoming a scarey power of finance, almost the controller. Them suffering can only be good for western growth.

You've got to hand it to the chinese. they have managed to finance a debt to help keep either own country in business.. their economy relies hugely on the spending of other, if others arent spending China hasn't a resolve.

Edited May 31, 2016 by RoyEngland

[NanLaew]

I've been here for 14 years and I think this is a serious downturn. Just the trip from Pattaya to Jomtien shows a slew of closed shops, some repeat failers. Even the Russians are failing now.

But some foreign-owned businesses here do thrive - or don't care about local economic conditions - because they are money laundering operations and can afford to pay off officials at exorbitant rates.

I'm not happy if good business people are suffering, but I'm pleased that others are confirming what I think I'm seeing. Not a normal rate of closures. More like an epidemic.

Great thread Jt. It may have been commented earlier but lost in the worthless static of the "beer-bar closing as indicator of doom" debate but does anyone have a perspective on how the Thai-owned and operated businesses around Pattaya are faring? The expat-oriented businesses are by nature of their customer base, a small and increasingly insignificant contributor to the newer, bigger Pattaya business revenue streams. Beyond the rather skewed opinions on the newly opened Harbor Mall and beyond the mess forced on a whole lot of previously busy, street-front businesses due to the Sukhumvit tunnel shambles, how are the local businesses doing? Avoiding the likes of Charoen Optical, 7-eleven, Tesco and other 'national' brands, how are the single, double and triple shop-house, local retail and service outlets doing? The building suppliers, the furniture and lighting shops, the florists, the Thai restaurants, car washes, appliances and white goods, etc.. Look at what's inside (and growing outside on the sidewalk) at the local pawn shops maybe?

FWIW, I am working outside Thailand with a fellow consultant, semi-retired and a Singapore resident of over 35 years. His wife, a Singaporean, is retired from heading up some major European cosmetic house's presence in Singapore's magnificent malls. She's does lunches now with her peers and those still working in that business and they have commented on how quiet the malls are these days, how things are on a much tighter reign fiscally and there's a lot less of them. Beyond the ones with loadsa cash, the (mainland) Chinese don't do Singapore so how they are going to adapt will be telling. How Bangkok's latest high-end offerings like Central Embassy will survive is all a bit beyond me too if the smaller businesses, the mom and pop shops are shuttering en masse.

[brling]

May be you should get out a bit more and discover the several condo buildings that have stalled for more than 10 years, or the new build hotels that never have been occupied, and where trees grow through the roof. Or the newly build ghost villages where the houses have never been completed, let stand occupied.

But hey, up to you id you prefer to continue with the blinkers on, just to sound knowledgeable.

Are you talking about Las Vegas...because I thought this was a Pattaya related thread?

Told you to get out more, instead of playing the apologist, then you should be aware that everything i summed up is located IN PATTAYA.

Exactly, the apologists need to get out more and get a life.

[Scotwight]

I've been here for 14 years and I think this is a serious downturn. Just the trip from Pattaya to Jomtien shows a slew of closed shops, some repeat failers. Even the Russians are failing now.

But some foreign-owned businesses here do thrive - or don't care about local economic conditions - because they are money laundering operations and can afford to pay off officials at exorbitant rates.

I'm not happy if good business people are suffering, but I'm pleased that others are confirming what I think I'm seeing. Not a normal rate of closures. More like an epidemic.

Great thread Jt. It may have been commented earlier but lost in the worthless static of the "beer-bar closing as indicator of doom" debate but does anyone have a perspective on how the Thai-owned and operated businesses around Pattaya are faring? The expat-oriented businesses are by nature of their customer base, a small and increasingly insignificant contributor to the newer, bigger Pattaya business revenue streams. Beyond the rather skewed opinions on the newly opened Harbor Mall and beyond the mess forced on a whole lot of previously busy, street-front businesses due to the Sukhumvit tunnel shambles, how are the local businesses doing? Avoiding the likes of Charoen Optical, 7-eleven, Tesco and other 'national' brands, how are the single, double and triple shop-house, local retail and service outlets doing? The building suppliers, the furniture and lighting shops, the florists, the Thai restaurants, car washes, appliances and white goods, etc.. Look at what's inside (and growing outside on the sidewalk) at the local pawn shops maybe?

FWIW, I am working outside Thailand with a fellow consultant, semi-retired and a Singapore resident of over 35 years. His wife, a Singaporean, is retired from heading up some major European cosmetic house's presence in Singapore's magnificent malls. She's does lunches now with her peers and those still working in that business and they have commented on how quiet the malls are these days, how things are on a much tighter reign fiscally and there's a lot less of them. Beyond the ones with loadsa cash, the (mainland) Chinese don't do Singapore so how they are going to adapt will be telling. How Bangkok's latest high-end offerings like Central Embassy will survive is all a bit beyond me too if the smaller businesses, the mom and pop shops are shuttering en masse.

In December 2015, the total number of unemployed persons were 0.25 million or 0.7% of the total labor force and increased of 35 thousand (from 220 thousand to 255 thousand) comparing to the same period as in 2014. And, showed a decreased of 91 thousand (from 346 thousand to 255 thousand) in November 2015. Comparing to the unemployment rate to the same period as in 2014 increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

If all of these businesses were closing the unemployment rate would have gone up more than a small fraction

http://web.nso.go.th/en/survey/data_survey/050259_summary_December58.pdf

But you guys know more and have better information I guess.

Edited May 31, 2016 by Scotwight

[Berty100]

I've been here for 14 years and I think this is a serious downturn. Just the trip from Pattaya to Jomtien shows a slew of closed shops, some repeat failers. Even the Russians are failing now.

But some foreign-owned businesses here do thrive - or don't care about local economic conditions - because they are money laundering operations and can afford to pay off officials at exorbitant rates.

I'm not happy if good business people are suffering, but I'm pleased that others are confirming what I think I'm seeing. Not a normal rate of closures. More like an epidemic.

Great thread Jt. It may have been commented earlier but lost in the worthless static of the "beer-bar closing as indicator of doom" debate but does anyone have a perspective on how the Thai-owned and operated businesses around Pattaya are faring? The expat-oriented businesses are by nature of their customer base, a small and increasingly insignificant contributor to the newer, bigger Pattaya business revenue streams. Beyond the rather skewed opinions on the newly opened Harbor Mall and beyond the mess forced on a whole lot of previously busy, street-front businesses due to the Sukhumvit tunnel shambles, how are the local businesses doing? Avoiding the likes of Charoen Optical, 7-eleven, Tesco and other 'national' brands, how are the single, double and triple shop-house, local retail and service outlets doing? The building suppliers, the furniture and lighting shops, the florists, the Thai restaurants, car washes, appliances and white goods, etc.. Look at what's inside (and growing outside on the sidewalk) at the local pawn shops maybe?

FWIW, I am working outside Thailand with a fellow consultant, semi-retired and a Singapore resident of over 35 years. His wife, a Singaporean, is retired from heading up some major European cosmetic house's presence in Singapore's magnificent malls. She's does lunches now with her peers and those still working in that business and they have commented on how quiet the malls are these days, how things are on a much tighter reign fiscally and there's a lot less of them. Beyond the ones with loadsa cash, the (mainland) Chinese don't do Singapore so how they are going to adapt will be telling. How Bangkok's latest high-end offerings like Central Embassy will survive is all a bit beyond me too if the smaller businesses, the mom and pop shops are shuttering en masse.

In December 2015, the total number of unemployed persons were 0.25 million or 0.7% of the total labor force and increased of 35 thousand (from 220 thousand to 255 thousand) comparing to the same period as in 2014. And, showed a decreased of 91 thousand (from 346 thousand to 255 thousand) in November 2015. Comparing to the unemployment rate to the same period as in 2014 increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

If all of these businesses were closing the unemployment rate would have gone up more than a small fraction

http://web.nso.go.th/en/survey/data_survey/050259_summary_December58.pdf

But you guys know more and have better information I guess.

I have always wondered which finger they wet and hold in the wind to make up those figures, because as far as I'm aware everywhere in the world unemployment figures are compiled from the people that are actively looking for a job, and to my knowledge Thailand doesn't have any employment agencies nor do they have any unemployment benefits.

Then when I travel up country I see loads and loads of people in hammocks, snooker centers and elsewhere where there isn't any labor performed, so I doubt they are actively looking for a job.

[Scotwight]

I'm not happy if good business people are suffering, but I'm pleased that others are confirming what I think I'm seeing. Not a normal rate of closures. More like an epidemic.

Great thread Jt. It may have been commented earlier but lost in the worthless static of the "beer-bar closing as indicator of doom" debate but does anyone have a perspective on how the Thai-owned and operated businesses around Pattaya are faring? The expat-oriented businesses are by nature of their customer base, a small and increasingly insignificant contributor to the newer, bigger Pattaya business revenue streams. Beyond the rather skewed opinions on the newly opened Harbor Mall and beyond the mess forced on a whole lot of previously busy, street-front businesses due to the Sukhumvit tunnel shambles, how are the local businesses doing? Avoiding the likes of Charoen Optical, 7-eleven, Tesco and other 'national' brands, how are the single, double and triple shop-house, local retail and service outlets doing? The building suppliers, the furniture and lighting shops, the florists, the Thai restaurants, car washes, appliances and white goods, etc.. Look at what's inside (and growing outside on the sidewalk) at the local pawn shops maybe?

FWIW, I am working outside Thailand with a fellow consultant, semi-retired and a Singapore resident of over 35 years. His wife, a Singaporean, is retired from heading up some major European cosmetic house's presence in Singapore's magnificent malls. She's does lunches now with her peers and those still working in that business and they have commented on how quiet the malls are these days, how things are on a much tighter reign fiscally and there's a lot less of them. Beyond the ones with loadsa cash, the (mainland) Chinese don't do Singapore so how they are going to adapt will be telling. How Bangkok's latest high-end offerings like Central Embassy will survive is all a bit beyond me too if the smaller businesses, the mom and pop shops are shuttering en masse.

In December 2015, the total number of unemployed persons were 0.25 million or 0.7% of the total labor force and increased of 35 thousand (from 220 thousand to 255 thousand) comparing to the same period as in 2014. And, showed a decreased of 91 thousand (from 346 thousand to 255 thousand) in November 2015. Comparing to the unemployment rate to the same period as in 2014 increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

If all of these businesses were closing the unemployment rate would have gone up more than a small fraction

http://web.nso.go.th/en/survey/data_survey/050259_summary_December58.pdf

But you guys know more and have better information I guess.

I have always wondered which finger they wet and hold in the wind to make up those figures, because as far as I'm aware everywhere in the world unemployment figures are compiled from the people that are actively looking for a job, and to my knowledge Thailand doesn't have any employment agencies nor do they have any unemployment benefits.

Then when I travel up country I see loads and loads of people in hammocks, snooker centers and elsewhere where there isn't any labor performed, so I doubt they are actively looking for a job.

You are wrong on all counts. Do a bit of investigation. Try google. How is unemployment data gathered for a start. Suffice it to say all the economic experts at all the banks are satisfied that the numbers are correct.

Check out the link I provided and go from there. Or you can just parade your lack of knowledge on contemporary information gathering technologies.

Edited May 31, 2016 by Scotwight

[Berty100]

Great thread Jt. It may have been commented earlier but lost in the worthless static of the "beer-bar closing as indicator of doom" debate but does anyone have a perspective on how the Thai-owned and operated businesses around Pattaya are faring? The expat-oriented businesses are by nature of their customer base, a small and increasingly insignificant contributor to the newer, bigger Pattaya business revenue streams. Beyond the rather skewed opinions on the newly opened Harbor Mall and beyond the mess forced on a whole lot of previously busy, street-front businesses due to the Sukhumvit tunnel shambles, how are the local businesses doing? Avoiding the likes of Charoen Optical, 7-eleven, Tesco and other 'national' brands, how are the single, double and triple shop-house, local retail and service outlets doing? The building suppliers, the furniture and lighting shops, the florists, the Thai restaurants, car washes, appliances and white goods, etc.. Look at what's inside (and growing outside on the sidewalk) at the local pawn shops maybe?

FWIW, I am working outside Thailand with a fellow consultant, semi-retired and a Singapore resident of over 35 years. His wife, a Singaporean, is retired from heading up some major European cosmetic house's presence in Singapore's magnificent malls. She's does lunches now with her peers and those still working in that business and they have commented on how quiet the malls are these days, how things are on a much tighter reign fiscally and there's a lot less of them. Beyond the ones with loadsa cash, the (mainland) Chinese don't do Singapore so how they are going to adapt will be telling. How Bangkok's latest high-end offerings like Central Embassy will survive is all a bit beyond me too if the smaller businesses, the mom and pop shops are shuttering en masse.

In December 2015, the total number of unemployed persons were 0.25 million or 0.7% of the total labor force and increased of 35 thousand (from 220 thousand to 255 thousand) comparing to the same period as in 2014. And, showed a decreased of 91 thousand (from 346 thousand to 255 thousand) in November 2015. Comparing to the unemployment rate to the same period as in 2014 increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

If all of these businesses were closing the unemployment rate would have gone up more than a small fraction

http://web.nso.go.th/en/survey/data_survey/050259_summary_December58.pdf

But you guys know more and have better information I guess.

I have always wondered which finger they wet and hold in the wind to make up those figures, because as far as I'm aware everywhere in the world unemployment figures are compiled from the people that are actively looking for a job, and to my knowledge Thailand doesn't have any employment agencies nor do they have any unemployment benefits.

Then when I travel up country I see loads and loads of people in hammocks, snooker centers and elsewhere where there isn't any labor performed, so I doubt they are actively looking for a job.

You are wrong on all counts. Do a bit of investigation. Try google. How is unemployment data gathered for a start. Suffice it to say all the economic experts at all the banks are satisfied that the numbers are correct.

Check out the link I provided and go from there. Or you can just parade your lack of knowledge on contemporary information gathering technologies.

Thanks for the info. How could I be so ignorant not to know that the numbers are gathered by a monthly survey.

In the US that involves 60.000 households that are included in this survey.

https://harvest.cals.ncsu.edu/are201/unempmsr.html

WOW.

Now back to Thailand. Each and every survey, regardless of the subject it concerns, that I have seen published in Thailand in the last 20 years involves between 500 and 1000 people from a population of 65 million people.

Yeah right, those figures are believable without doubt.

[sharecropper]

Knock yourself out believing the propaganda stats of idiots, liars and usurpers.

[Bender]

I've been here for 14 years and I think this is a serious downturn. Just the trip from Pattaya to Jomtien shows a slew of closed shops, some repeat failers. Even the Russians are failing now.

But some foreign-owned businesses here do thrive - or don't care about local economic conditions - because they are money laundering operations and can afford to pay off officials at exorbitant rates.

I'm not happy if good business people are suffering, but I'm pleased that others are confirming what I think I'm seeing. Not a normal rate of closures. More like an epidemic.

Great thread Jt. It may have been commented earlier but lost in the worthless static of the "beer-bar closing as indicator of doom" debate but does anyone have a perspective on how the Thai-owned and operated businesses around Pattaya are faring? The expat-oriented businesses are by nature of their customer base, a small and increasingly insignificant contributor to the newer, bigger Pattaya business revenue streams. Beyond the rather skewed opinions on the newly opened Harbor Mall and beyond the mess forced on a whole lot of previously busy, street-front businesses due to the Sukhumvit tunnel shambles, how are the local businesses doing? Avoiding the likes of Charoen Optical, 7-eleven, Tesco and other 'national' brands, how are the single, double and triple shop-house, local retail and service outlets doing? The building suppliers, the furniture and lighting shops, the florists, the Thai restaurants, car washes, appliances and white goods, etc.. Look at what's inside (and growing outside on the sidewalk) at the local pawn shops maybe?

FWIW, I am working outside Thailand with a fellow consultant, semi-retired and a Singapore resident of over 35 years. His wife, a Singaporean, is retired from heading up some major European cosmetic house's presence in Singapore's magnificent malls. She's does lunches now with her peers and those still working in that business and they have commented on how quiet the malls are these days, how things are on a much tighter reign fiscally and there's a lot less of them. Beyond the ones with loadsa cash, the (mainland) Chinese don't do Singapore so how they are going to adapt will be telling. How Bangkok's latest high-end offerings like Central Embassy will survive is all a bit beyond me too if the smaller businesses, the mom and pop shops are shuttering en masse.

In December 2015, the total number of unemployed persons were 0.25 million or 0.7% of the total labor force and increased of 35 thousand (from 220 thousand to 255 thousand) comparing to the same period as in 2014. And, showed a decreased of 91 thousand (from 346 thousand to 255 thousand) in November 2015. Comparing to the unemployment rate to the same period as in 2014 increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

If all of these businesses were closing the unemployment rate would have gone up more than a small fraction

http://web.nso.go.th/en/survey/data_survey/050259_summary_December58.pdf

But you guys know more and have better information I guess.

thats complete baloney!

[Scotwight]

In December 2015, the total number of unemployed persons were 0.25 million or 0.7% of the total labor force and increased of 35 thousand (from 220 thousand to 255 thousand) comparing to the same period as in 2014. And, showed a decreased of 91 thousand (from 346 thousand to 255 thousand) in November 2015. Comparing to the unemployment rate to the same period as in 2014 increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

If all of these businesses were closing the unemployment rate would have gone up more than a small fraction

http://web.nso.go.th/en/survey/data_survey/050259_summary_December58.pdf

But you guys know more and have better information I guess.

I have always wondered which finger they wet and hold in the wind to make up those figures, because as far as I'm aware everywhere in the world unemployment figures are compiled from the people that are actively looking for a job, and to my knowledge Thailand doesn't have any employment agencies nor do they have any unemployment benefits.

Then when I travel up country I see loads and loads of people in hammocks, snooker centers and elsewhere where there isn't any labor performed, so I doubt they are actively looking for a job.

You are wrong on all counts. Do a bit of investigation. Try google. How is unemployment data gathered for a start. Suffice it to say all the economic experts at all the banks are satisfied that the numbers are correct.

Check out the link I provided and go from there. Or you can just parade your lack of knowledge on contemporary information gathering technologies.

Thanks for the info. How could I be so ignorant not to know that the numbers are gathered by a monthly survey.

In the US that involves 60.000 households that are included in this survey.

https://harvest.cals.ncsu.edu/are201/unempmsr.html

WOW.

Now back to Thailand. Each and every survey, regardless of the subject it concerns, that I have seen published in Thailand in the last 20 years involves between 500 and 1000 people from a population of 65 million people.

Yeah right, those figures are believable without doubt.

3 The Labour Force Survey is based on a multi-stage area sample of private dwellings (currently approximately 26,000 houses, flats, etc.) and a list sample of non-private dwellings (hotels, motels, etc.), and covers approximately 0.32% of the civilian population of Australia aged 15 years and over.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/exnote/6202.0

That is how it is done. Sorry if it doesn't fit with your experience.

The LFS is intended to be representative of the whole population of the UK, and the sample design currently consists of around 41,000 responding households in every quarter. The quarterly survey has a panel design whereby households stay in the sample for 5 consecutive quarters (or waves), with a fifth of the sample replaced each quarter. Thus there is an 80% overlap in the samples for each successive survey.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140721132900/http:/www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_labour/What_exactly_is_LFS1.pdf

[Scotwight]

I'm not happy if good business people are suffering, but I'm pleased that others are confirming what I think I'm seeing. Not a normal rate of closures. More like an epidemic.

Great thread Jt. It may have been commented earlier but lost in the worthless static of the "beer-bar closing as indicator of doom" debate but does anyone have a perspective on how the Thai-owned and operated businesses around Pattaya are faring? The expat-oriented businesses are by nature of their customer base, a small and increasingly insignificant contributor to the newer, bigger Pattaya business revenue streams. Beyond the rather skewed opinions on the newly opened Harbor Mall and beyond the mess forced on a whole lot of previously busy, street-front businesses due to the Sukhumvit tunnel shambles, how are the local businesses doing? Avoiding the likes of Charoen Optical, 7-eleven, Tesco and other 'national' brands, how are the single, double and triple shop-house, local retail and service outlets doing? The building suppliers, the furniture and lighting shops, the florists, the Thai restaurants, car washes, appliances and white goods, etc.. Look at what's inside (and growing outside on the sidewalk) at the local pawn shops maybe?

FWIW, I am working outside Thailand with a fellow consultant, semi-retired and a Singapore resident of over 35 years. His wife, a Singaporean, is retired from heading up some major European cosmetic house's presence in Singapore's magnificent malls. She's does lunches now with her peers and those still working in that business and they have commented on how quiet the malls are these days, how things are on a much tighter reign fiscally and there's a lot less of them. Beyond the ones with loadsa cash, the (mainland) Chinese don't do Singapore so how they are going to adapt will be telling. How Bangkok's latest high-end offerings like Central Embassy will survive is all a bit beyond me too if the smaller businesses, the mom and pop shops are shuttering en masse.

In December 2015, the total number of unemployed persons were 0.25 million or 0.7% of the total labor force and increased of 35 thousand (from 220 thousand to 255 thousand) comparing to the same period as in 2014. And, showed a decreased of 91 thousand (from 346 thousand to 255 thousand) in November 2015. Comparing to the unemployment rate to the same period as in 2014 increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

If all of these businesses were closing the unemployment rate would have gone up more than a small fraction

http://web.nso.go.th/en/survey/data_survey/050259_summary_December58.pdf

But you guys know more and have better information I guess.

thats complete baloney!

The labour force survey is undertaken by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and is a more direct assessment of unemployment, rather than those who claim benefit. All members of the EU must use the ILO standardised measure of unemployment, which is based on a quarterly survey of approximately 40,000 households, and 80,000 individuals.

http://economicsonline.co.uk/Managing_the_economy/Measuring_unemployment.html

Complete baloney right?

Thailand is consistent with the rest of the world in compiling unemployment data and it contradicts the assertions of this thread with accurate data as opposed to a few expats with a chip on their shoulder trying to post negative information as usual.

Edited May 31, 2016 by Scotwight

[Scotwight]

In December 2015, the total number of unemployed persons were 0.25 million or 0.7% of the total labor force and increased of 35 thousand (from 220 thousand to 255 thousand) comparing to the same period as in 2014. And, showed a decreased of 91 thousand (from 346 thousand to 255 thousand) in November 2015. Comparing to the unemployment rate to the same period as in 2014 increased from 0.6% to 0.7%

If all of these businesses were closing the unemployment rate would have gone up more than a small fraction

http://web.nso.go.th/en/survey/data_survey/050259_summary_December58.pdf

But you guys know more and have better information I guess.

I have always wondered which finger they wet and hold in the wind to make up those figures, because as far as I'm aware everywhere in the world unemployment figures are compiled from the people that are actively looking for a job, and to my knowledge Thailand doesn't have any employment agencies nor do they have any unemployment benefits.

Then when I travel up country I see loads and loads of people in hammocks, snooker centers and elsewhere where there isn't any labor performed, so I doubt they are actively looking for a job.

You are wrong on all counts. Do a bit of investigation. Try google. How is unemployment data gathered for a start. Suffice it to say all the economic experts at all the banks are satisfied that the numbers are correct.

Check out the link I provided and go from there. Or you can just parade your lack of knowledge on contemporary information gathering technologies.

Thanks for the info. How could I be so ignorant not to know that the numbers are gathered by a monthly survey.

In the US that involves 60.000 households that are included in this survey.

https://harvest.cals.ncsu.edu/are201/unempmsr.html

WOW.

Now back to Thailand. Each and every survey, regardless of the subject it concerns, that I have seen published in Thailand in the last 20 years involves between 500 and 1000 people from a population of 65 million people.

Yeah right, those figures are believable without doubt.

The total number of sample private households selected for enumeration by region and type of local administration was as follows :

Region / Stratum

Bangkok Metropolis, total number of households -> 4680, households in municipal area -> 4680

Central (excluding Bankok Metropolis), total number of households -> 26856, households in municipal area -> 16200, households in non-municipal area -> 10656

North, total number of households -> 16920, households in municipal area -> 10440, households in non-municipal area -> 6480

Northeast, total number of households -> 17712, households in municipal area -> 10800, households in non-municipal area -> 6912

South, total number of households -> 13392, households in municipal area -> 7920, households in non-municipal area -> 5472

http://catalog.ihsn.org/index.php/catalog/4935/sampling

End of survey information.

Don't you think since America, UK, Australia, EU and Canada all do the same kind of survey to determine unemployment that the method is accurate and don't you think you should admit with a few bows and such that you are in error and don't have a clue what you are talking about?