Thai exports shrank 5.36 percent for the first four months

[webfact]

Thai exports shrank 5.36 percent for the first four months



BANGKOK: -- The Thai National Shippers Council has expressed serious concern that Thailand may face economic crisis because of the gloomy global economy which has not recovered yet and has big impact on Thai exports.

Mr Nopporn Thepsittha, chairman of the TNSC, pointed out that exports for the month of April contracted by 8 percent which was beyond expectation and constituted the lowest in six years.

Minus gold and arms exports, exports for the months of February and March which registered 10.27 and 1.37 percent growth respectively should have contracted 3.75 and 1.05 percent respectively and these should have brought the Thai exports for the first four months of the year to minus 5.36 percent instead of minus 1.24 percent.

This is a clear indication that the global economy has not recovered yet and there are still a lot of uncertainties and the risk of a major economic crisis, said Mr Nopporn.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/content/165485

-- Thai PBS 2016-06-01

[EricBerg]

Now there's a negative comment about Thai economy. It seems mr Nopporn is in for some serious attitude adjustment.

[NCFC]

The global economy has recovered from 2008 financial crisis levels in most major economies.

[NongKhaiKid]

No, No , No this can't be right, must be a misprint.

What's the next misrepresentation, the Minister of Tourism supposedly admitting that visitor arrivals gave actually dropped ?

[Winniedapu]

This BS mantra about Thai economy going downhill because of the global economy has to stop.

Thailand's neighbours seem to be doing quite well, especially Vietnam by all accounts.

The Thai economy is in a hole because Thailand has an incompetent and repressive military government who committed treason on it's way to stealing power from an elected government.

I'm not an economist but it doesn't seem to be any more complicated than that really.

Winnie

[Winniedapu]

[the failure of the Thai economy is...] a clear indication that the global economy has not recovered yet and there are still a lot of uncertainties and the risk of a major economic crisis, said Mr Nopporn

Whatever planet do these people live on? Thai exports are failing because the Thai government is failing, not because of the global economy.

Because the Thai government is incompetent and has a clown for a leader.

Winnie

[tuanku]

Thailand is an arms exporter?

Presumably nothing more sophisticated than machetes, or are these foreign (Chinese?) made parts assembled here?

Seafood ban looming, rice harvest likely to be minimal, foreign owned companies worried about possible internet restrictions, is this picture going to get better?

[gandalf12]

Thailand is not the global economy. Hard to believe I know but it isnt, now do not panic. It looks like Thailand is due to go through a recession but it is pretty much understandable with the way the fundamentals work here. Given time and an honest approach to the world and they will recover

[Bob12345]

"Minus gold and arms exports"

Serious question, why exclude these 2 categories?

That sounds like measuring inflation excluding rice, soy bean sauce of brand A, and double counting batteries of which the brand name starts with an "S".

Or is there any logic behind it?

[dbrenn]

This BS mantra about Thai economy going downhill because of the global economy has to stop.

Thailand's neighbours seem to be doing quite well, especially Vietnam by all accounts.

The Thai economy is in a hole because Thailand has an incompetent and repressive military government who committed treason on it's way to stealing power from an elected government.

I'm not an economist but it doesn't seem to be any more complicated than that really.

Winnie

That's right. All we have here is another 'blame the rest of the world' article by the subservient Thai media.

Other countries are doing much better.

[baboon]

No, No , No this can't be right, must be a misprint.

What's the next misrepresentation, the Minister of Tourism supposedly admitting that visitor arrivals gave actually dropped ?

Flew in yesterday on an Mrats A380. Everyone who wanted one had a row to themselves. This is the second time in two months this has happened to me, not that I am complaining.

Also noteworthy is the couple of lads I was chatting to at the conveyor belt telling me their feeder flights from the UK to Dubai were completely full, as was mine...

[Brer Fox]

On the unbelievably positive side the BoT Governor Weerathai Santipraphop responded to the news of an 8% drop in exports for April by saying that April was an abnormal month because of blah! blah! blah!.

However he is very positive for the months ahead by coming out with the preposterous comment that exports will GROW at -2%.

Is there any hope at all?

Reference:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/920403-bot-shrugs-off-8-export-growth-drop-in-april/

[elgordo38]

The global economy has recovered from 2008 financial crisis levels in most major economies.

Yes your right cheap/free money has resurrected things well for the rich anyways.

[Thaidream]

Business is not doing well at all. What is keeping the economy together at the moment i the huge construction projects that are ongoing and ones planned. The Baht is still too high to enable Thailand to export more. It appears there is intervention in the market as the Baht starts to decline against the Dollar and Pound. The Baht needs to go to around 37-38 to the Dollar and around 57-58 for the Pound. If anything, the government should hasten the decline not support its increase.

[Fookhaht]

.... Given time and an honest approach to the world and they will recover

That "honest" part....aye, there's the rub, matey.

[Usernames]

Exports to China and Russia will make up for the rest of the world.

[Winniedapu]

In light of this very positive news, what do we think is the likelihood of a devaluation iin the baht this year?

Don't larf, it's a genuine question... perhaps I should be buying pounds (what about the brexit) or dollars or aussie dollar...

Anyone got any thorts?

Winnie

[Rancid]

The global economy has recovered from 2008 financial crisis levels in most major economies.

In fact no it hasn't. It has been propped up with money printing, debt and BS statistics. Look at worldwide shipping, look at worldwide debt levels, real unemployment, inventory levels, business investment.

It is all ugly, the world economy is on life support. How long can they keep it going? Who knows...

[geistfunke]

This BS mantra about Thai economy going downhill because of the global economy has to stop.

Thailand's neighbours seem to be doing quite well, especially Vietnam by all accounts.

The Thai economy is in a hole because Thailand has an incompetent and repressive military government who committed treason on it's way to stealing power from an elected government.

I'm not an economist but it doesn't seem to be any more complicated than that really.

Winnie

I can agree, the last 2 years our export from Thailand to EU was more and more difficult because of new Thai-regulations, new Thai paper work, new before-export costs in Thailand. The EU and our customers are NOT the problem. The problem is only INSIDE Thailand. So now we have to cover losses for 2 years. At the moment we are not optimistic.

[Srikcir]

BOT must cut interest rates - 0.75%?

Foreign capital is fleeing Thailand and domestic investment is stillborn.

The Middle Income Trap may devolve into a Low Income Trap.

[moobie]

My own personal thought is that we are still wandering through the 2008 Financial crisis here in the UK. Here many higher paying jobs have been lost but at the same time many low paid ones have been created, think of them as the derided "McJobs" or menial service ones. However, where the likes of Thailand and others in SE Asia, etc. have prospered with the scale of cheap labour costs there are dark clouds are on the horizon in the form of automation and near market availability.

If recent media is to be believed, Foxconn in China is said to have replaced 600,000 of it's workers with robotic elements and we now have this from Adidas : http://www.reuters.com/article/us-adidas-manufacturing-idUSKBN0TS0ZM20151209

If the powers that be are not looking at such developments and the potential impact on their economies and employment situation then it is worrying.