TCC believes improvement on TIP list will put export growth in positive territory

BANGKOK, 4 July 2016 (NNT) – The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) has hailed the government’s ability to elevate Thailand from Tier 3 on the US Trafficking in Persons Watch List to Tier 2 and believes the nation can achieve economic growth of up to 3 percent this year.

TCC Vice-Chairman Poj Aramwattananont has expressed jubilation over the United States’ decision to lift Thailand to Tier 2 on its Trafficking in Persons Report for 2016. He said that while human trafficking cases still exist in the Kingdom, the situation has improved markedly from last year, acknowledging the government’s serious work on the matter. He encouraged all sectors to continue to work to their utmost on the issue, stating that improvements to the situation will enhance Thailand’s economy by improving its global profile.

The vice chairman said that the latest improvement on the US list should lead to better trade with the US as well as other Western nations and help Thailand when it is evaluated by the European Union. All combined, he believes the third quarter will see better exports and that the nation will end the year 2-3 percent up on exports with seafood to hit 200 million baht in value.

-- NNT 2016-07-04

These people are so "the glass is half full". They can get a positive spin out of anything, it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.

Time to relax until there is another threat....

The junta's Propaganda Department, NNT, sure is pumping out the drivel lately...

Which is as usual; hollow.

the nation will end the year 2-3 percent up on exports

It's unclear to me whether the 2-3% percent up means only the last quarter of 2016 will show 2-3% export growth or the whole year will average 2-3% export growth.

Predicting that only the last quarter will show growth vs contraction over previous three quarters would still equate to an annual contraction in exports. That would not be something to cheer about. Giving the benefit of an optimistic prediction, I'd interpret 2-3 percent up as the latter with the whole year expected to show an annual average 2-3% export growth rate for exports.

Given there was a cumulative contraction in exports of 14.4% for the first five months of 2016, exports for the remaining seven months would have to be more than 4% growth per month. This is not now a realistic expectation. Thailand will be fortunate to end 2016 with an annual average growth rate of 0%.

These people are so "the glass is half full". They can get a positive spin out of anything, it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.

Me to all those phrases hope, believe, should, quite possible, maybe, yes we are buying subs screw the protesters. They have a sci-fi mentality hmm what is that phrase again "make it so" or something. Firm hand on the tiller here old boy. Full speed ahead. Damn the torpedo's (I wonder if the new sub will have this modern weapon) If they come under attack while sitting on the bottom they can always use that old ploy of jetsoning old oil and clothing.

These people are so "the glass is half full". They can get a positive spin out of anything, it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.

The Thais are masters of spin. And the worst of it is they believe their own bizarre spin. Just the other day they announced they had a foreign investment GROWTH of MINUS 2.3%.

So many useless tools placing responsibility for their poor governance on extrinsic events that's have no pertinence. This is "Thainess" at its core.

TCC’s prediction seems more politically motivated than economically justified.

- January 2016 TCC predicted exports would expand 2%

- May 2016 it predicted exports might only see 0 to negative 0.8% expansion as a consequence of demand shrinkage. The economy would still grow at 3% for 2016.

- June 2016 it predicted that largely due to the effects of Brexit, exports would see a 2% contraction.

In none its export projections did TCC consider the effect on exports due to Thailand’s TIP ranking reported by the USA. That is likely because consumer demand for exported seafood would not be affected by either a Tier 3 or Tier 2 ranking. A Tier 3 ranking is a warning that Thailand could lose its preferential tariff import rates – there is no Tier 4. Tier 2 ranking means that currently Thailand is not an official subject of scrutiny for human trafficking by the USA Government. There would be no change in tariffs.

In itself Thailand’s change from Tier 3 to Tier 2 rankings should have no economic impact such as increasing seafood exports to the US. Thus, it is incorrect to conclude that the nation will end the year 2-3% up on exports because of a change in its TIP ranking from 3 to 2. It is more likely that Thailand will have a negative export rate for 2016 - especially if the EU "red" cards Thailand.

The only reason Thailand was on Tier 3 last time was due to the coup, and now the only reason they have been brought up to Tier 2 is due to their ever increasing relationship with China.

American politics at its finest.