GBP/THB, Your Plan Now?

[StraightTalk]

On 8/15/2016 at 8:52 AM, Henryford said:

[cut]

I expect that being out of the EUSSR the Pound will be much stronger in 3-5 years. I would be more worried if i relied on Euros.

Your optimism is refreshing!

Consider this:  UK is not out yet; Article 50 may be invoked, when... in 2019 or thereabout?

And how long will it take to actually 'break' when/if Article 50 is finally invoked?

And what makes you think the GBP will rise against other currencies?

You may find that the GBP settles much, much lower... it's good for employment & export. Decisions won't be made based on retirees residing abroad - just saying.

[billd766]

On 8/15/2016 at 7:11 AM, Ricardo said:

The dailymail-link is of course blocked, for those of us here in Thailand, by the MICT.

 

I wish they would get-over-it !

 

I have just clicked on the OP link at 12.45 16th August and it works for me.

[jacko45k]

On 14/08/2016 at 4:14 AM, THAIJAMES said:

If you can hold off for a year or two  the pound is likely to be back above  US1.50
GBP seems to be tracking similar but milder performance to 1984-1985 when it went down to $1.05 and stayed under $1.50 for 2 years.

This is my hope.....

I have some deposits here as the interest rates used to be better, time to run my savings down to the 800k I need for the retirement extension.

[Baerboxer]

On 8/15/2016 at 8:58 AM, chiang mai said:

Looking at the GBP/THB rates this morning, all the onshore Thai banks have changed their rates by up to 50 satang against the Pound, this despite the fact that GBP/has fallen against USD over that time. Thursday last GBP/THB was pushing 44.10 onshore, today it's circe 44.60. So domestc affairs are impacting exchange rate currently, albeit to a lesser degree.

 

As for the Pound having lost only ten per cent: in June last year I was using 54.50 for my monthly book keeping purposes, today I'm using 44.50, that's closer to 20%.

 

Not sure how often you change your E/R in your book keeping. I set mine annually and and then track with moving average after each exchange but only change the standard if a really significant and sustained change occurs. 54.50 looks a high that occurred middle of the year just before the referendum when the expectation was a remain result. I got 72 baht to GBP when I bought my house several years ago so it could be a 38% fall based on that.

 

I increased my baht holdings over several months prior to the Brexit vote. I expected the vote to be to remain, in which case the pound would have probably strengthened further quickly. But I was wrong, and therefore my actions have helped. Some experts were already predicting  a weaker pound by end 2016 regardless of which way the referendum went. I saw figures of around $1.2 being forecast for year end early last year. 

 

Always hard to second guess forex. Article 50 hasn't been invoked yet, the process could get unpleasant, especially as some Europeans are now talking to Scotland trying to weaken the UK position despite vowing not to, and there is still a lot of major issues just under the EU cozy surface. Looking more and more like a Clinton win - how will that effect the dollar, etc. etc. etc.

 

I'm working on the pound being low for the next 18-24 months. After that, Britain will be on the road to Brexit recovery or in serious trouble. I hope the former.

 

 

Edited August 16, 2016 by Baerboxer

[Naam]

On 8/15/2016 at 9:07 AM, Henryford said:

Right again CM but i am looking at the average rate over the last 8 years which for me was 50. The rate obviously varies a lot even without BREXIT and we have been down to 44 before. For budgeting purposes i think 50 is a good figure.

 

only optimists use a "good" figure when budgeting. realists use a "prudent" figure, namely 40.

[Briggsy]

This whole thread is based on a premise that people are living hand to mouth. Whilst many Brits in Thailand are, many also are not.

 

I recently sold some funds denominated in £ but whose underlying assets were denominated in other currencies as they had all shot up 20%. So, for me, the 20% drop in the £ provided an opportunity.

 

As for day-to-day spending, I will make no changes. It is possible I may delay some capital expenditure I was planning in Thailand in the near future as the funds are still in the UK and the price (in Baht) remains unchanged thus effectively for me this becomes a 20% increase in the price since the initial source of the funds is Sterling. But I won't delay for ever.

[elgordo38]

On 8/15/2016 at 9:10 AM, sandyf said:

The pound has risen slightly this morning against the USD. Hit a low of 1.29 about 6am but is now at 1.2937. The pound is also increasing against the Euro so just have to see what the day brings.

I think you are right about the US, now the dust has settled I can't see them putting a rate hike off much longer which would be another setback for the pound.

 

PS. Sods law. Now going south again.

The Fed now must consider the world economy not just their own when deciding on rates. Most US companies derive 50% of their returns overseas and loose when converting from local currencies back into US dollars. Don't get carried away with all of this ying yanging Fed speak. Watch this video by Gerald Celente especially his last statement http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco-News/1331/2016-08-15/Is-The-Fed-Stupid-or-Just-Lying---Gerald-Celente its a real eye opener. They get more mileage out of Fed speak than an actual rate increase. My currency was worth more than the US$ a couple years ago now its down 30%. I have learned to adapt and even save money. I have an Auzzie friend who lives the life of Riley has a credit card debt of over $20,000 and moans about the exchange rate. In the end its all about your raising your respect or disrespect of money. He is just another example of a person living beyond his means. All the central banks in the world are running out of ammunition. They have spent it all on failed policies. You can only buy false security for a set period of time and then the wheels fall off of the wagon. We are getting close. The yellow metal has been shining for centuries while fiat currencies have come and gone. I like to bet on a winner and the fed and central banks are playing right into gold. Even the current Baron Rothschild is buying into the yellow stuff.http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-08-15/Rothschild-Ups-Gold-Bets.html Ignore the CNBC and other talking heads the signs of trouble are all around us. Bank loans are the juice that keeps the economy running borrow and spend. China just stated that new bank loans the last quarter dropped by 50%. What raise in pay did you get this year? CEO's in Britain averaged over 10% Ding dong something is wrong. 

Edited August 16, 2016 by elgordo38

[bazza40]

Perhaps all the Brits should be buying the Aussie dollar..........

[al007]

The current exchange rate as we all know has been aggravated by the UK choice to leave the UK

 

Before deciding to live in Thailand a financial evaluation should have been done, and if a 25% movement in exchange  was critical then maybe not come, an emergency fund of £20/30,000 also needs to be available especially if one has no medical insurance

 

There are many expats here who can not really afford to be here, they are very fortunate if they go back to the UK they will drop back into the social security system, they are also fortunate they have has some time here

 

There are many on retirement and marriage extensions who use different methods to comply but really do not have the money, in all honesty they van not afford to be here and should go home

 

Remember in the Uk many run out of money in retirement as well the only difference being the UK picks up the basic costs if necessary

 

Fortunately I switched most of my retirement assets into US dollars a few years ago

 

However I believe if the exit from Europe is successful the pound will recover it may however take 4/5 yrs

 

In passing I use a VPN most of the time, so nothing is censored or blocked

[stoneyboy]

On 15 August 2016 at 1:11 AM, Ricardo said:

The dailymail-link is of course blocked, for those of us here in Thailand, by the MICT.

 

I wish they would get-over-it !

 

They being your superiors mate,suck it up that's the way it is and continues to go in Thailand.

 

 

[manfredtillmann]

15 minutes ago, bazza40 said:

Perhaps all the Brits should be buying the Aussie dollar..........

why?

[metisdead]

A nonsense post has been removed. 

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, Briggsy said:

This whole thread is based on a premise that people are living hand to mouth. Whilst many Brits in Thailand are, many also are not.

 

I recently sold some funds denominated in £ but whose underlying assets were denominated in other currencies as they had all shot up 20%. So, for me, the 20% drop in the £ provided an opportunity.

 

As for day-to-day spending, I will make no changes. It is possible I may delay some capital expenditure I was planning in Thailand in the near future as the funds are still in the UK and the price (in Baht) remains unchanged thus effectively for me this becomes a 20% increase in the price since the initial source of the funds is Sterling. But I won't delay for ever.

 

Not really and yes! I accept that many expats in Thailand lead comfortable lives and have a decent financial cushion, I'm fortunate in that I consider myself one of them. But there comes a point when the ever weakening Pound makes even the most comfortable person begin to question where the line is between staying, leaving and adjusting their lifestyle - the recent drop in GBP/THB made me ask myself that same question hence the reason for the thread. I'm very fortunate that I have never taken on board the (not so) wise old TVF mantra of not investing in Thailand. I currently have almost ten years of living expenses on hand in Thailand so for me this is an academic exercise, if anything the increase in my Pound Sterling equivalent assets makes me wonder whether cashing might be an option I should consider.

[Naam]

19 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

Not really and yes! I accept that many expats in Thailand lead comfortable lives and have a decent financial cushion, I'm fortunate in that I consider myself one of them. But there comes a point when the ever weakening Pound makes even the most comfortable person begin to question where the line is between staying, leaving and adjusting their lifestyle - the recent drop in GBP/THB made me ask myself that same question hence the reason for the thread. I'm very fortunate that I have never taken on board the (not so) wise old TVF mantra of not investing in Thailand. I currently have almost ten years of living expenses on hand in Thailand so for me this is an academic exercise, if anything the increase in my Pound Sterling equivalent assets makes me wonder whether cashing might be an option I should consider.

 

being a cosmopolitan i could never understand the stubbornness of focussing on any "home" currency, especially when this focus goes hand in hand with very limited investment options.

 

but i'm taking my wife's advice who tells me quite often "you don't understand? so what? you don't have to understand each and everything!"

 

[laislica]

23 minutes ago, Naam said:

 

being a cosmopolitan i could never understand the stubbornness of focussing on any "home" currency, especially when this focus goes hand in hand with very limited investment options.

 

but i'm taking my wife's advice who tells me quite often "you don't understand? so what? you don't have to understand each and everything!"

 

 

 

Many of us have pensions that are paid in our home currency.

These funds have to be converted to Baht.

This is my reason for focussing on BGP/THB

[TKDfella]

Yes, while I agree this has been caused by Brexit but what doesn't help is that other politicians say they can block Brexit. This does not allow for stable environment. If it simply accepted then maybe things will 'settle down' quicker.

Edited August 16, 2016 by TKDfella
wrong message

[Ricardo]

1 hour ago, stoneyboy said:

 

They being your superiors mate,suck it up that's the way it is and continues to go in Thailand.

 

 

  Sorry, but are you confusing me with someone else, as your post makes no sense at all, to me ?

 

What were you trying to say, once again ?

[chiang mai]

33 minutes ago, Naam said:

 

being a cosmopolitan i could never understand the stubbornness of focussing on any "home" currency, especially when this focus goes hand in hand with very limited investment options.

 

but i'm taking my wife's advice who tells me quite often "you don't understand? so what? you don't have to understand each and everything!"

 

 

Not being able to decide for several years exactly what my home currency was has proved to be expensive for me, doubtlesss it's the same for many others also. Being paid in GBP via two pensions gives me and others like me little chance to manoeuvre, especially since I spend Baht. In recent times that picture has become much clearer for me in terms of balance although there is no love affair between me and the Pound, if I could blink and make them Dollars I would.

 

As for investment options: I saw your earlier post where you said the important thing is to make sure you end up with more than you started with, regardless of how ever much you spend in between. That's fine and good for the savvy and experienced investor which we all know you are. But for the average man in the street the choices are much more difficult hence we rely on fixed term deposits and similar and Thailand is now marginally a better place for that than say the UK. I think what you see as a focus on home currencies is not really that at all, it's just that our income arises in say Pounds and many of us are not looking for sophisticated investment options, simply we're looking for comfortable low risk returns.

[manfredtillmann]

3 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

Not being able to decide for several years exactly what my home currency was has proved to be expensive for me, doubtlesss it's the same for many others also. Being paid in GBP via two pensions gives me and others like me little chance to manoeuvre, especially since I spend Baht. In recent times that picture has become much clearer for me in terms of balance although there is no love affair between me and the Pound, if I could blink and make them Dollars I would.

 

As for investment options: I saw your earlier post where you said the important thing is to make sure you end up with more than you started with, regardless of how ever much you spend in between. That's fine and good for the savvy and experienced investor which we all know you are. But for the average man in the street the choices are much more difficult hence we rely on fixed term deposits and similar and Thailand is now marginally a better place for that than say the UK. I think what you see as a focus on home currencies is not really that at all, it's just that our income arises in say Pounds and many of us are not looking for sophisticated investment options, simply we're looking for comfortable low risk returns.

but what are your choices if you do not want to / can not be 'savvy'?

you receive a pension in the 'mother- / fatherland, you can save for a while, hoping things will turn green, but in the end it gets converted at what ever the transfer rate is on the day.

are not all our investments currency bound? (you can sort this out, naam, please).

i used to check the conversion rate of aud / thb every day. and all it did was make me miserable. should have, could have ,would have. the three 'uffs' that make life's choices a pain in the back side.

accept: that you are not in control of your destiny and live with what ever means you have available to your self.

i USED to belong to the top 2% of income earners in australia and i am very happy to be 'poor' today.

[JB300]

Things aren't helped by the fact that the Thai economy is doing better than expected... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-15/thailand-s-economy-expanded-more-than-expected-in-second-quarter

 

[chiang mai]

There's a bunch of UK economics reporting due this week and the first piece has just been announced, inflation is picking up and with that news GBP gained against USD (and as a consequence against THB). The expectation is that inflation will continue to pick up and despite that fact, BOE is still expected to deliver a second rate cut. What all that says I think is that BOE is happy to inflate away their debt, despite a strengthening of the Pound - forex markets must be expecting a rate increase as some point but that'll be a good trick!!! Anyway, GBP/THB getting stronger today, the other four reports due this week will tell the story.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-16/u-k-inflation-accelerates-as-pound-slump-boosts-import-costs

[gamini]

I don't think the falling value of the GB pound will affect most expats as far as visas are concerned. Most keep the deposit of Bt800,000 (or bt400,00) long term, especially those who have lived here awhile. They have seen the pound go up and down, so it makes sense to keep the deposits in the bank and use them for visa extensions. The only effect will be cutting down a bit on their budget. But it is still very cheap to live here compared with the UK.  Those on British pensions, which may now not be high enough to get a visa extension can always do a combination of income and cash.

[Naam]

2 hours ago, laislica said:

 

 

Many of us have pensions that are paid in our home currency.

These funds have to be converted to Baht.

This is my reason for focussing on BGP/THB

 

my mistake not clearly indicating that my comment did not pertain to pension/social security income. i am referring to those persons with investments which can be moved from one currency to another. if one has a pension focussing on exchange rates won't help... unfortunately.

[MrMuddle]

23 hours ago, MJP said:

The plan now is to open up a street of go-go bars in Southend catering to rich, retired fat old Asian men.

Who used to be in the Thai SAS.    

[Caspersfriend]

5 hours ago, al007 said:

The current exchange rate as we all know has been aggravated by the UK choice to leave the UK

 

Before deciding to live in Thailand a financial evaluation should have been done, and if a 25% movement in exchange  was critical then maybe not come, an emergency fund of £20/30,000 also needs to be available especially if one has no medical insurance

 

There are many expats here who can not really afford to be here, they are very fortunate if they go back to the UK they will drop back into the social security system, they are also fortunate they have has some time here

 

There are many on retirement and marriage extensions who use different methods to comply but really do not have the money, in all honesty they van not afford to be here and should go home

 

Remember in the Uk many run out of money in retirement as well the only difference being the UK picks up the basic costs if necessary

 

Fortunately I switched most of my retirement assets into US dollars a few years ago

 

However I believe if the exit from Europe is successful the pound will recover it may however take 4/5 yrs

 

In passing I use a VPN most of the time, so nothing is censored or blocked

 

You play your 'game' and others play theirs. Without doubt there are some here who are on 'wing and a prayer'. However I know of many who appear to be so, but are simply measuring exactly how much of their assets they should 'invest' in Thailand; given all the 'problems' that are mentioned daily on here and in the news. For myself I play my cards close to my chest, I have several sources of income I can bring into play if necessary.

 

What might happen with any currency in those 4/5 years you mentioned?  Nobody knows. Recent history shows that the vast majority of those who are supposed to know got it wrong with the 2007-9  and Brexit hiccup; doubt the few that appeared to get it right would stand up to scrutiny. Every currency in the world is currently sitting on a knife edge - no links required. 

[autanic]

 

The Pound in all probability will not rise any time soon to any major degree. It suits the UK Economy to have a weaker Pound, to improve Exports. 

 

The UK Government have 3 agendas.

 

1. Keep the cycle of debt going, by supporting low interest rates, that reward borrowing, but penalises savers. Im the hope that Savers will spend their money and boost comsumer spending.

 

2.  Create a favourable condition where leaving the EU officially (Triggerinig Article 50) by having  more Exports. This means by weakening the Pound, the Exports market booms, especially to the rest of the EU. By creating a situation, where the rest of the EU needs the UK more vice verser, means when negotiations begin, the UK can create a unique deal with the EU, where the UK has access to the single market, but does not have to pay for it.

 

3. Reduce the numbers if people immigrating to the UK and emmigrating from the UK. I think the immigration most people know about. But by making conditions less favourable to say to omve to Thailand and remain in the UK, expats simply downsize their properties freeing up housing stock at the high end. 

 

[chiang mai]

24 minutes ago, autanic said:

 

The Pound in all probability will not rise any time soon to any major degree. It suits the UK Economy to have a weaker Pound, to improve Exports. 

 

The UK Government have 3 agendas.

 

1. Keep the cycle of debt going, by supporting low interest rates, that reward borrowing, but penalises savers. Im the hope that Savers will spend their money and boost comsumer spending.

 

2.  Create a favourable condition where leaving the EU officially (Triggerinig Article 50) by having  more Exports. This means by weakening the Pound, the Exports market booms, especially to the rest of the EU. By creating a situation, where the rest of the EU needs the UK more vice verser, means when negotiations begin, the UK can create a unique deal with the EU, where the UK has access to the single market, but does not have to pay for it.

 

3. Reduce the numbers if people immigrating to the UK and emmigrating from the UK. I think the immigration most people know about. But by making conditions less favourable to say to omve to Thailand and remain in the UK, expats simply downsize their properties freeing up housing stock at the high end. 

 

 

Read the link in post 51 above, the inflation data released yesterday has the Pound strengthening already, up almost 2 cents in 24 hours. At some point the UK will be faced with no good choice, rampant inflation or an increase in interest rates.

[MJP]

10 hours ago, MrMuddle said:

Who used to be in the Thai SAS.    

 

Quality! 

[SheungWan]

19 hours ago, AlexRich said:

My personal view on this is that it will take a few years for the GBP to recover as it looks like Article 50 will not be triggered anytime soon and the two year negotiation period will start some time in late 2017. The uncertainty and leaks to the press that will ensue once the process gets going will not help matters either. As everything is relative the only real hope is that other currencies falter, so perhaps issues coming out of China, political issues in Thailand or a strengthening dollar (should they raise rates) could dampen down Far East currencies - i.e. weaken the Baht.

 

Plan? Cut back on spending and look for investments with better yields and/or less exposure to sterling weakness.

 

Whatever one's projections it seems somewhat unwise to be totally reliant on the sterling exchange rate assuming one has choices to make.

[AlexRich]

17 hours ago, bazza40 said:

 

 

 

Edited August 17, 2016 by AlexRich
did not know how to cancel?