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Thai exports contract 2% in first 7 months

  

BANGKOK, 29 August 2016 (NNT) - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a meeting next month with trade ambassadors worldwide in a hope of boosting export growth following the latest report that the country's exports shrank by 2 percent in the first 7 months of 2016. 

According to Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee, the export volume in July totaled 17.4 billion US dollars, accounting for a negative 4.4 percent growth compared to the same period of 2015. The export growth in the previous month was recorded at only negative 0.07 percent. 

The Deputy Commerce Minister attributed the decline to the global economic slowdown which also prompted the demands for Thai industrial and farm goods to decrease by 0.4% and 18.6% respectively. 

Although the export growth in the first 7 months contracted by 2 percent, Thailand has a trade surplus of 13 billion US dollars. 

The Ministry of Commerce will keep an eye on global oil prices for the rest of the year as they have direct impact on transportation cost. However, Mr. Suvit will discuss ways to minimize the impact and bolster export growth with Thai commercial diplomats in a meeting scheduled for September. 

Should Thailand be able to rake in 95 billion dollars from exports for the remainder of 2016, the deputy minister believes the country's annual export growth will stand at 1.3 percent. 

 

-- nnt 2016-08-29

 

[daveAustin]

The elephant in the room and other factors aside, the baht being way way way way way overpriced has major bearing, no doubt. No matter, though, I'm sure TAT will come to the rescue with new figures of 300 million prospective arrivals in the final quarter... not Chinese though as they're staying home apparently.  

[robblok]

7 minutes ago, daveAustin said:

The elephant in the room and other factors aside, the baht being way way way way way overpriced has major bearing, no doubt. No matter, though, I'm sure TAT will come to the rescue with new figures of 300 million prospective arrivals in the final quarter... not Chinese though as they're staying home apparently.  

 

As long as there is a trade surplus of 13 billion U$ the baht is valued correct. The trade surplus is one of the things that determines if a currency is valued correctly. The interest rate in a country is an other one. No matter how much us expats (id like a cheaper baht too extra spending money is always fun) want it. 

 

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041515/how-does-balance-trade-impact-currency-exchange-rates.asp

 

Edited August 29, 2016 by robblok

[Agent Sumo]

Like any central bank, the Bank of Thailand's monetary policy is an exercise in compromise.

 

Weakening the baht to boost exports would give inflation a free run and make the lives of already poor Thais even worse with higher prices for basic necessities.

 

They have no pressing need to emulate the idiots at the Fed and BoJ in their perpetual race to debase their currencies. 

[Anthony5]

8 minutes ago, robblok said:

 

As long as there is a trade surplus of 13 billion U$ the baht is valued correct. The trade surplus is one of the things that determines if a currency is valued correctly. The interest rate in a country is an other one. No matter how much us expats (id like a cheaper baht too extra spending money is always fun) want it. 

 

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041515/how-does-balance-trade-impact-currency-exchange-rates.asp

 

 

 

Trade surplus is easily manipulated by reducing import even more than exports decline.

[robblok]

10 minutes ago, Anthony5 said:

 

 

Trade surplus is easily manipulated by reducing import even more than exports decline.

 

Not so easy to do.. things like fuel and other things that are not made here will have to be imported. Besides the government cant tell importers not to buy stuff. Only thing they could do is increase import taxes to manipulate it and that has not happened. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

25 minutes ago, robblok said:

 

As long as there is a trade surplus of 13 billion U$ the baht is valued correct. The trade surplus is one of the things that determines if a currency is valued correctly. The interest rate in a country is an other one. No matter how much us expats (id like a cheaper baht too extra spending money is always fun) want it. 

 

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041515/how-does-balance-trade-impact-currency-exchange-rates.asp

 

 

Thailand have a sizable trade surplus because imports have been abysmal low this years. Imports are so low because the Thai industrial sector is slowing down, which means future export numbers will be even lower then they are now.

 

Thailand is not alone in this trend and it could be the undoing of the export driven economies. Watch as the bank's NPL numbers grow over the next few years.

[bark]

4 hours ago, robblok said:

 

As long as there is a trade surplus of 13 billion U$ the baht is valued correct. The trade surplus is one of the things that determines if a currency is valued correctly. The interest rate in a country is an other one. No matter how much us expats (id like a cheaper baht too extra spending money is always fun) want it. 

 

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041515/how-does-balance-trade-impact-currency-exchange-rates.asp

 

13 billion, is just a made up number. They have nothing to value their money.

This is the same as the USA. They just keep printing money.

Area 51 , does not have anything to do with Aliens. It is where the none existent economy, is located. And they won't 

let anyone in to look.

[Srikcir]

6 hours ago, robblok said:

As long as there is a trade surplus of 13 billion U$ the baht is valued correct.

The trade suplus of $13 billion is with the US only. In global trade, Thai exports have been and are continuing to contract in terms of net revenues. To reverse the net contraction to produce a 1.3% annual export growth rate, Thailand will need to see a minimum 3% positive growth in global export revenues per month for the remaining 5 months in 2016. Highly unlikely at the current baht value.

[ExpatOilWorker]

11 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

The trade suplus of $13 billion is with the US only. In global trade, Thai exports have been and are continuing to contract in terms of net revenues. To reverse the net contraction to produce a 1.3% annual export growth rate, Thailand will need to see a minimum 3% positive growth in global export revenues per month for the remaining 5 months in 2016. Highly unlikely at the current baht value.

 

 

But, but, but...she promised us 5% growth.

 

Min of Commerce forecasts 5% export growth in 2016



BANGKOK, 22 December 2015 (NNT) - The Ministry of Commerce is confident the government’s economic stimulus measures will push export growth to 5% next year.

Director-General of the Department of International Trade Promotion (DITP) Malee Chokelamlert said the department is determined to increase export growth to 5% next year.

She cited several positive indicators, including the Thai government’s investment incentives in 10 target industries, as well as forecasts by the International Monetary Fund, indicating that the global economy and exports will expand by 3.6% and 2.4%, respectively.

The DITP is expected to boost bilateral trade with the United States and European Union to 3% and 2.8%, respectively. However, trade between Thailand and Russia is still expected to contract by 15%.

Regionally, Mrs. Malee said that her department will raise export volume by 6% to countries within the ASEAN region and 13.6 % to the CLMV region, or Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.

The Ministry of Commerce will also adopt seven strategies to promote the export sector. They involve setting up cooperation with other nations, promoting the export of Thai products to other countries proactively, as well as border trade

Other strategies consist of encouraging Thai manufacturers to seek oversea investments, improving trade services, promoting the role of small and medium enterprises in the export sector and increasing the product value of exports.


-- NNT 2015-12-22 

[baboon]

4 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

 

But, but, but...she promised us 5% growth. 

Just be patient and wait for the next headline in a day or two. I wouldn't be surprised if growth will be forecast to increase to 5.7%....

[ExpatOilWorker]

2 minutes ago, baboon said:

Just be patient and wait for the next headline in a day or two. I wouldn't be surprised if growth will be forecast to increase to 5.7%....

 

Thanks God, that will be great. Finally we are back on track again. For a brief second I thought we would't make this years forecast.

I will sleep much better tonight. Thanks again.

[baboon]

No worries. Just don't come after me when you read the headline after that...

[tbthailand]

wait for the end of the year when the Thai economy will have grown 3.2% ... just as predicted.  

[waldroj]

"...Thai exports contract 2% in first 7 months..."!

 

It was left to the Deputy Commerce Minister to suggest that demands for Thai industrial and farm goods decreased by 18.6%!

 

Despite this horrific news, the Ministry of Commerce looks like it has a Plan B! Who needs the rest of the world, it seems the M of C has embarked on a plan to open must-visit markets in 77 provinces under the government’s civil state policy to promote local economy. http://news.thaivisa.com/thailand/thai-commerce-min-to-open-must-visit-markets-in-77-provinces/152368/.

 

One has to ask the question, where is Minister Apiradi Tantraporn at this time? Could we be witnessing history here? Has she possibly taken personal responsibility for her Ministry's failure to achieve the expected export growth of 5% the fortune teller had predicted for 2016? https://www.thebusinessyear.com/thailand-2016/trading-nation/vip-interview

 

Has she resigned, is she on stress leave, or has she chosen this as the time to do an overseas fact-finding mission?

[Agent Sumo]

15 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

 

But, but, but...she promised us 5% growth.

 

Min of Commerce forecasts 5% export growth in 2016



BANGKOK, 22 December 2015 (NNT) - The Ministry of Commerce is confident the government’s economic stimulus measures will push export growth to 5% next year.

Director-General of the Department of International Trade Promotion (DITP) Malee Chokelamlert said the department is determined to increase export growth to 5% next year.

She cited several positive indicators, including the Thai government’s investment incentives in 10 target industries, as well as forecasts by the International Monetary Fund, indicating that the global economy and exports will expand by 3.6% and 2.4%, respectively.

The DITP is expected to boost bilateral trade with the United States and European Union to 3% and 2.8%, respectively. However, trade between Thailand and Russia is still expected to contract by 15%.

Regionally, Mrs. Malee said that her department will raise export volume by 6% to countries within the ASEAN region and 13.6 % to the CLMV region, or Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.

The Ministry of Commerce will also adopt seven strategies to promote the export sector. They involve setting up cooperation with other nations, promoting the export of Thai products to other countries proactively, as well as border trade

Other strategies consist of encouraging Thai manufacturers to seek oversea investments, improving trade services, promoting the role of small and medium enterprises in the export sector and increasing the product value of exports.


-- NNT 2015-12-22 

 

Yeah because economic forecasts in our oh-so-superior advanced nations are so much more accurate, aren't they?

 

"Yep, we envisage raising the fed funds rate 3 or 4 times in 2016" - Fed

 

"We expect inflation to rise over time to our 2% target" - BoJ

[Brer Fox]

21 hours ago, daveAustin said:

The elephant in the room and other factors aside, the baht being way way way way way overpriced has major bearing, no doubt. No matter, though, I'm sure TAT will come to the rescue with new figures of 300 million prospective arrivals in the final quarter... not Chinese though as they're staying home apparently.  

Not all of the Chinese are staying at home. Passed through Noi Bai airport Hanoi last week and thought I was in China. The place was full of them and not the Beach Road bus load variety. They seemed to be in small to medium groups and couples and families of a higher socioeconomic level. Perhaps the Chinese are realising that Thailand is not the tourism centre of the universe that TAT says it is.

[ExpatOilWorker]

3 hours ago, Agent Sumo said:

 

Yeah because economic forecasts in our oh-so-superior advanced nations are so much more accurate, aren't they?

 

"Yep, we envisage raising the fed funds rate 3 or 4 times in 2016" - Fed

 

"We expect inflation to rise over time to our 2% target" - BoJ

 

Yellen never said that. The Fed Chairman (woman) usually select her words very carefully.

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 8/29/2016 at 11:54 AM, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

Thailand have a sizable trade surplus because imports have been abysmal low this years. Imports are so low because the Thai industrial sector is slowing down, which means future export numbers will be even lower then they are now.

 

Thailand is not alone in this trend and it could be the undoing of the export driven economies. Watch as the bank's NPL numbers grow over the next few years.

 

Did I just predict the future?

I also have some lottery numbers.....

 

Manufacturing output contracts 5% in July

 

 

BANGKOK: -- Manufacturing output of major industries fell again last month with index contracting 5%.

 

Wirasak Suprasert, the deputy director of the Office of Industrial Economics, revealed that the Manufacturing Production Index or MPI for July contracted by 5.1%.

 

The main industries that experienced contraction were automotive and engine production, clothing, plastics and several others excluding automotive tire production.

 

He said the MPI fell from 108.91 in July last year to 103.36 in July this year.

 

Main reasons attributed to the fall included long holidays announced by the government last month, coupled with car companies launching new car models and marketing encouraging sales last year.

 

Meanwhile car exports to the Middle East market also declined following the low oil price trend, resulting in drop of  car production by 8.41% in July this year.

 

But he forecast the index could improve during the remaining five months of the year with expected MPI for the whole year to rise 1-2%.

 

He said however there is some good news in that some industries defied expectations and enjoyed growth such as processed food and processed agricultural goods.

 

These include frozen chicken meat and processed fruits which not only expanded production-wise but also experienced significant appreciation in prices which is attributed to the ever improving drought situation in the country.

 

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/manufacturing-output-contracts-5-july/