Pound drops to lowest level since 1985

[Rimmer]

Another overlarge off topic and reported post has been removed, also any quoted replies

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, SooKee said:

And meanwhile the £ bobs up and down like a drowning rat gasping for air, struggling to keep afloat at £1 = 43.00 baht.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Lets see whether sterling continues to be a hard brexit tracker.

[Khun Han]

18 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

 

Too many big words is usually the main complaint.

 

Too many big words misspelt is usually the main complaint.

Edited October 17, 2016 by Khun Han

[SheungWan]

18 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Too many big words misspelt is usually the main complaint.

 

It certainly is if one is a Private Eye reader. But then Private Eye is not much on the Brexit fan list either.

 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2016 by SheungWan

[sandyf]

17 hours ago, nontabury said:

 

  Earlier in this thread,someone said 10% tariffs. Now who said that,ah yes one of the Remoaners.

WTO tariffs are not fixed per se. Each WTO member must have a tariff policy and the tariff level varies from product to product and country to country. All tariff policies can be viewed on the WTO website. 

One of the most vulnerable products to tariffs is motor vehicles, here in Thailand some vehicles are subject to 200%, so to compare a motor manufacture and pharmaceuticals is like chalk and cheese.

 

The UK cannot immediately use the WTO arrangement. Although a full member it does not have its own tariff policy, has to use the EU policy. There is no reason why the UK could not adopt the EU policy but that would still be subject to agreement by all WTO members, including the EU. Not going to be sorted out overnight, the one thing the WTO is well known for is taking its time.

[chiang mai]

2 hours ago, SgtRock said:

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, something that I have been banging the drums about for a while now.

 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eurozone-euro-collapse-house-of-cards-ecb-single-currency-a7364826.html

 

Sterling is taking a hit right now. That will change dramatically at the end of March 2017.

 

Why end of March, does the Easter Bunny have a role to play!

[sandyf]

So Boris is of the opinion that Brexit will lead to the break up of the UK.

Obviously not straight, more of a bisceptic.

[Orac]

WTO tariffs are not fixed per se. Each WTO member must have a tariff policy and the tariff level varies from product to product and country to country. All tariff policies can be viewed on the WTO website. 
One of the most vulnerable products to tariffs is motor vehicles, here in Thailand some vehicles are subject to 200%, so to compare a motor manufacture and pharmaceuticals is like chalk and cheese.
 
The UK cannot immediately use the WTO arrangement. Although a full member it does not have its own tariff policy, has to use the EU policy. There is no reason why the UK could not adopt the EU policy but that would still be subject to agreement by all WTO members, including the EU. Not going to be sorted out overnight, the one thing the WTO is well known for is taking its time.

As you rightly point out, WTO tariffs would be a whole new can of worms entailing a great deal of work and consultation across the EU. Though adopting EU tariffs would be more straightforward it would put huge pressure on inflation, particularly when it comes to things like foodstuffs where we are very reliant on foreign produce and EU tariffs are high.

[Grouse]

Interesting that both Aldi and Lidl are German. Just been comparing prices on line. 

[SheungWan]

53 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Interesting that both Aldi and Lidl are German. Just been comparing prices on line. 

 

You live an exciting life.

[i claudius]

5 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

This may not be your idea of a racist, or, if you will, bigoted but believe me, it qualifies as such.

 

Sorry about that ,i am heartbroken , now whats for tea .?

[happy Joe]

10 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

I think, and hope, that the Euro is doomed. It was a terrible idea.   But that's not the same thing as the EU. 

 

Hostile and hateful dream. This opinion reflects a majority of British nationalists, although most have the decency not to express aloud.

 

In response, do not be surprised if the Europeans are watching pound debacle with some irony and is preparing arguments to say no!

 

The result would be very simple if this opinion had a majority among young but it is not the case. Like those of other European countries they want to continue in a union defending our common values. They do not have the economic obsession and attach more importance to other objectives such as peace, solidarity, easy to travel, move and exchange. They also want to continue discuss on equal terms with the other blocks of the planet such as China, Russia, USA,  and the Asia group that form in this time.

 

That is why there will probably be a return from the UK to Europe. In this sense our respective leaders must do everything to preserve the links and maintain a fraternal relationship.

 

That is why also we probably will know a soft Brexit, with the pound quickly ride up, Scotland definitively confirm its UK membership and probably a new referendum in some years.

Edited October 17, 2016 by happy Joe

[dick dasterdly]

6 hours ago, rwdrwdrwd said:

Not hard with a tiny bit of research.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/pa014.pdf

Immigrants are, on average, more educated than their UK-born counterparts, and the educational attainment gap has been rising over time since more recent immigrants are more educated, on average, than other immigrants (see Table 2). While more than half of the UK-born workforce left school at 16 or earlier, fewer than one in six new immigrants finished their education by the age of 16. Just over one in five UK-born members of the workforce finished education at 21 or later compared with more than 40% of all immigrants and more than 50% of all new immigrants.

Pretty sure there is no degree in 'Somali goat herding'.

I'm not convinced by this as nobody cares about immigrants being given well-paid jobs.

 

Those who are fed up with the open-door policy feel that way because of the number of uneducated immigrants taking low paid jobs - making it easy for employers to keep wages low for those at the bottom of the heap.

[dick dasterdly]

5 hours ago, AlexRich said:

 

We are in agreement about the migrant crisis, and the EU will have to face up to this issue and start sending many of these people back where they came from. Merkel contributed to the mess and she is suffering politically for it ... I suspect that policy changes are inevitable ... this issue certainly puts a strain on relations but I'm not convinced that the EU will break up because of it ... but will almost certainly lead to changes. 

 

 

We hope so, but it would alienate the governments of the poor EU countries.  They're happy that those without work in their own country can move to a wealthier EU country to obtain work.

 

And of course they will be paid more in the wealthy EU countries than they would get in their own country - even if they were able to find work in their own country.  Unfortunately, this drives down wages for the poorest in the wealthy EU countries.

 

Hence the backlash ala the Brexit vote.

[chiang mai]

19 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

I'm not convinced by this as nobody cares about immigrants being given well-paid jobs.

 

Those who are fed up with the open-door policy feel that way because of the number of uneducated immigrants taking low paid jobs - making it easy for employers to keep wages low for those at the bottom of the heap.

 

Hmmm, so what do we say, we're tired of poor uneducated ignorant immigrants undercutting our own poor ignorant uneducated nationals - at least the immigrants are willing to work and mostly able to deliver, if UK bosses are to be believed, all of them that is:

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2062504/UK-unemployment-Meet-British-bosses-say-foreign-workers-time.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10237654/Companies-hire-foreigners-as-British-workers-unwilling-to-move-says-Chris-Bryant.html

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/jun/21/job-agencies-prefer-foreign-workers

 

[cumgranosalum]

10 hours ago, i claudius said:

 

I would have once agreed with you ,but now things are changing at a very fast rate , what will break up the E.U is the millions of economic migrants that are making their way to the west as their lands implode , This is not a racist rant , its just facts ,the people that are coming are not going to help the west and become "good" citizens , I have been in many of their lands and to be blunt they live like animals , they are just importing it and the population of <Italy Greece , Germany , Sweden etc etc , will not stand for it .this is what will destroy the E.U .

" This is not a racist rant ," "and to be blunt they live like animals"- so what is it then?

Edited October 17, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[dick dasterdly]

3 hours ago, Grouse said:

Interesting that both Aldi and Lidl are German. Just been comparing prices on line. 

Was there a difference?

 

Never been to Aldi, but went to Lidl when staying with my brother for a while on a 'holiday' back to the UK a few years ago - as that's pretty much the only place he shops.

 

I was suprised by the quality of some of the produce supplied, and will ask him how much prices change over the next few months.

[ilostmypassword]

34 minutes ago, happy Joe said:

 

Hostile and hateful dream. This opinion reflects a majority of British nationalists, although most have the decency not to express aloud.

 

In response, do not be surprised if the Europeans are watching pound debacle with some irony and is preparing arguments to say no!

 

The result would be very simple if this opinion had a majority among young but it is not the case. Like those of other European countries they want to continue in a union defending our common values. They do not have the economic obsession and attach more importance to other objectives such as peace, solidarity, easy to travel, move and exchange. They also want to continue discuss on equal terms with the other blocks of the planet such as China, Russia, USA,  and the Asia group that form in this time.

 

That is why there will probably be a return from the UK to Europe. In this sense our respective leaders must do everything to preserve the links and maintain a fraternal relationship.

 

That is why also we probably will know a soft Brexit, with the pound quickly ride up, Scotland definitively confirm its UK membership and probably a new referendum in some years.

It's hard to discern what you're saying, but I think you're criticizing my dislike of the Euro.  Economists in the USA, left, right, and center, pretty much unanimously thought the Euro was a terrible idea. European economists who supported it, never really offered a sensible economic rationale for its creation . A financiaI union without a fiscal union is nuts.  In effect what the Euro is doing now is subsidizing the German economy with a currency that is devalued in relation to it, and penalizing countries like Greece and Portugal and Ireland, with a currency that is overvalued in relation to them. The so called bailout of Greece was really a bailout of bankers who foolishly lent to the Greeks. It's not people like me who have inflicted terrible suffering on some members of the Eurozone.  And don't confuse the Eurozone with the EU. Not the same thing at all.

[i claudius]

" This is not a racist rant ," "and to be blunt they live like animals"- so what is it then?

Sorry,just tell it as I saw it, mind you it must be so hard for those scientists,architects,and engineers,in Calais ,who by the way as reported on the news tonight have been rioting again ,
Must be so nice in luvvie land

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[Xircal]

21 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Xircal, you're missing the point: it's not just Siemens, GSK and AstraZeneca. I could keep on providing examples of businesses right across the spectrum who have re-committed to the UK. And you could no doubt keep on coming up with reasons why each individual business is a special case for not being too hampered by brexit. But the point is, all these businesses have rejected the brexit doomsday scenario, and have committed (often with big further investment) to the UK. And this can only be a vote of confidence and big boost for the UK.

 

The trade deficit is cited as the main reason for Sterling's overvaluation by the way, for which it's current fall in value seems to be the only thing remainers have as an argument for some sort of economic crash. Apart from endless speculation, of course.

 

I'm not the one that's missing the point, you are. You can thrust all the data forward you wish to try and convince myself and others that leaving the EU will be good for the country but the truth of the matter is that Britain is going to suffer once it leaves the EU and that won't be compensated by exports or by UK facing investment.

 

Britain doesn't have a strong manufacturing base and relies on imports to sustain its development. However with a weak £ inflation is going to rise due to the higher cost of imports and winter fuel costs will also serve to curb consumer spending.

 

You can stick your head in the sand and pretend its not happening, but it doesn't change the fact that Britain is in for a tough time especially when it actually cuts ties with the EU. Check this BBC report on the state of the economy published this morning if you don't believe me: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37674169

 

If the prediction in the BBC report proves to be true the country could be looking at another credit rating downgrade which will only serve to make borrowing that much more expensive. That could translate into significant tax increases to pay for it all.

 

 

[dick dasterdly]

11 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

 

Hmmm, so what do we say, we're tired of poor uneducated ignorant immigrants undercutting our own poor ignorant uneducated nationals - at least the immigrants are willing to work and mostly able to deliver, if UK bosses are to be believed, all of them that is:

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2062504/UK-unemployment-Meet-British-bosses-say-foreign-workers-time.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10237654/Companies-hire-foreigners-as-British-workers-unwilling-to-move-says-Chris-Bryant.html

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/jun/21/job-agencies-prefer-foreign-workers

 

Couldn't be bothered to read the links, for which I apologise.

 

Having worked in a school in a deprived neighbour-hood, I understand the point - a percentage of the disadvantaged think their best chance is a life in crime/drugs plus welfare - and this has been going on for a couple of decades now, but is becoming more prevalent.

 

Wages at the bottom and lower middle end of the spectrum have also been stagnating/reduced over the last couple of decades - whilst those at the top have seen ever increasing salaries.  What we make of that depends on our own viewpoint.

 

Nonetheless I agree (to a certain extent) with your point, in that the poorest (particularly if young) have mostly given up on finding a job which pays enough for them to survive - whereas uneducated EU immigrants find these minimum income jobs (or less than minimum income) well paid, compared to their own countries.

 

And of course companies are happy to make the most of those uneducated immigrants happily working for the minimum wage (or lower).

 

Which is why salaries for most have stagnated, whilst salaries for those at the 'top' enjoy large increases.

[ilostmypassword]

Given their comments in other forums, most of the supporters of Brexit are politically conservative.  They don't want to acknowledge the fact that a big reason the UK economy is doing OK is that the Conservative government is boosting the economy by increasing deficit spending.

Edited October 17, 2016 by ilostmypassword

[SgtRock]

56 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

We hope so, but it would alienate the governments of the poor EU countries.  They're happy that those without work in their own country can move to a wealthier EU country to obtain work.

 

And of course they will be paid more in the wealthy EU countries than they would get in their own country - even if they were able to find work in their own country.  Unfortunately, this drives down wages for the poorest in the wealthy EU countries.

 

Hence the backlash ala the Brexit vote.

 

Strange how Germany can do what it wants especially when it goes against EU rules.

 

Quote

German government approves strict limits on EU migrants claiming benefits

 

Quote

Proposal to stop migrants drawing benefits for five years goes beyond moratorium proposed by David Cameron in UK

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/12/german-government-approves-bill-to-stop-eu-migrants-claiming-benefits

 

I am positive that Camoron got sent packing with his tail between his legs when he made the same proposal at his resolute failure at EU negotiations in February.

Edited October 17, 2016 by SgtRock

[Chicog]

Is Merkel subject to term limits or is this her trying to cling on?

[SgtRock]

4 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

Why end of March, does the Easter Bunny have a role to play!

 

For the benefit of you and SW, who clearly have memory lapses.

 

The end of March is when the ECB very discreetly, without fanfare, extended its totally ineffective QE program to the tune of euro 1.9 Trillion until.

 

So nothing to do with Easter Bunnies. 

 

Quote

The ECB and QE in the Last Chance Saloon

 

http://www.georgemagnus.com/the-ecb-and-qe-in-the-last-chance-saloon/

 

Quote

ECB has one last chance to save euro with bond purchases

 

Ultimate survival of the single currency is at risk if policymakers fail to defeat deflation in the euro zone and get the economy back on its feet

 

http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1691291/ecb-has-one-last-chance-save-euro-bond-purchases

 

Tick Tock said the clock.

 

It is all going to end badly and the UK will benefit greatly. 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2016 by SgtRock
Typo

[Khun Han]

15 minutes ago, Xircal said:

 

I'm not the one that's missing the point, you are. You can thrust all the data forward you wish to try and convince myself and others that leaving the EU will be good for the country but the truth of the matter is that Britain is going to suffer once it leaves the EU and that won't be compensated by exports or by UK facing investment.

 

Britain doesn't have a strong manufacturing base and relies on imports to sustain its development. However with a weak £ inflation is going to rise due to the higher cost of imports and winter fuel costs will also serve to curb consumer spending.

 

You can stick your head in the sand and pretend its not happening, but it doesn't change the fact that Britain is in for a tough time especially when it actually cuts ties with the EU. Check this BBC report on the state of the economy published this morning if you don't believe me: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37674169

 

If the prediction in the BBC report proves to be true the country could be looking at another credit rating downgrade which will only serve to make borrowing that much more expensive. That could translate into significant tax increases to pay for it all.

 

 

Correct, Xircal. I'm thrusting real time data forward (and plenty of it) to support my position. Remainers such as yourself thrust speculation and forecasts. On the subject of which:

 

The think tank report that forms the Beeb article has it's own thread in this section where it is being discussed at length. The think tank that produced it got their last major forecast (in July) hopelessly wrong.

 

I'll stick with real time data and on-the-ground facts thankyou.

[Khun Han]

13 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Strange how Germany can do what it wants especially when it goes against EU rules.

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/12/german-government-approves-bill-to-stop-eu-migrants-claiming-benefits

 

I am positive that Camoron got sent packing with his tail between his legs when he made the same proposal at his resolute failure at EU negotiations in February.

 

Don't worry, there will be some obscure get-out clause that will be interpreted favourably toward Germany. It's their show, after all.

[rockingrobin]

13 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Strange how Germany can do what it wants especially when it goes against EU rules.

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/12/german-government-approves-bill-to-stop-eu-migrants-claiming-benefits

 

I am positive that Camoron got sent packing with his tail between his legs when he made the same proposal at his resolute failure at EU negotiations in February.

From your link

The law would not exclude EU citizens currently in employment from entitlement to welfare payments, or those who have rights to payments because they have worked.

Nahles said: “What’s clear is that those who live, work and pay their contributions have a legal right to benefits from our social welfare system. But for those who have never worked here and are dependent on state financial support in order to afford the basic costs of living, the principle applies that they can apply for those means in their own country.”

 

D Cameron was to exclude workers from beneffits

[SgtRock]

5 minutes ago, Chicog said:

Is Merkel subject to term limits or is this her trying to cling on?

 

The Klingons are off the starboard bow.

 

Even with crampons Merkel will not Klingon. She is a goner and so is Hollande.

 

The EU is about to change drastically, the people who cannot see past the end of their noses just haven't worked it out yet.

[dick dasterdly]

3 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Strange how Germany can do what it wants especially when it goes against EU rules.

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/12/german-government-approves-bill-to-stop-eu-migrants-claiming-benefits

 

I am positive that Camoron got sent packing with his tail between his legs when he made the same proposal at his resolute failure at EU negotiations in February.

Its not only Germany that does what it wants - as far as I can make out every nation (apart from the UK) ignores EU laws/rules when it doesn't suit them.

 

I've nothing against the EU (as such), but loathe the ridiculous salaries/empire building/expansionist policies that have added countries whose citizens are desperate to move to wealthier EU countries.