AlexRich Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 (edited) Deutsche Bank falters leading to EU collapse? Worse than Lehman? And all of Europe will sit back and watch it happen because the German government will remain steadfast in their refusal to help out? Or Germany will simply do what they need to do, despite what they say today. My money is on the latter. Some people on this thread are reminiscent of the 'End is Nigh' sandwich board wearers of olden times. Edited October 19, 2016 by AlexRich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 20 hours ago, SgtRock said: As I have been saying for months, despite the procrastinations of those that have there heads deeply embedded where the sun dont shine and cannot see past the end of there noses. It is getting worse for DB. On Friday http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-17/deutsche-bank-pays-38-million-settle-silver-manipulation-lawsuit The only reason that DB is currently an ongoing concern on the expectation that the DOJ is going to drop its fine from $ 14 Billion to the region of $ 4 - 5 Billion. IMO this is not going to happen due to the massive amounts of lawsuits that DB have had to settle over the last 2 years. http://www.activistpost.com/2016/09/deutsche-bank-going-under-real-reason-germans-told-prepare-national-crisis.html Think Lehmans but only worse ? Understatement of the day. This will kill the euro completely and ultimately lead to the demise of the entire EZ. Contrary to the wisdom of those who doubt that this will happen, the UK will benefit enormously from this, providing that they can put a big enough buffer zone in place before the EZ collapses. "Cras" comment. I think it will be much further out than tomorrow! (Latin again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daveAustin Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 59 minutes ago, Naam said: the property price range i mentioned are the ones well-off foreign investors are interested in. they don't buy rowhouses in London's eastend who's prices might have dropped a fistful thousand pounds. You must have mighty fists. With the cheapest houses around 3-400 grand, that'd be 60-80 grand less for one crappy townhouse. Pick up a streetful of them and you've saved a wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 My money is on DB selling assets and being merged/taken over, after which normal service will be resumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-could-block-brexit-deal-no-10-admits-a7368561.html%3famp?client=safari This seems to confirm the reason for the recent collapse and current support. May is now sensibly conceding that parliament should indeed have a say in what is finally agreed. Thankfully, this does give parliament leverage and us some protection against some of the dafter Con government ideas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, Grouse said: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-could-block-brexit-deal-no-10-admits-a7368561.html%3famp?client=safari This seems to confirm the reason for the recent collapse and current support. May is now sensibly conceding that parliament should indeed have a say in what is finally agreed. Thankfully, this does give parliament leverage and us some protection against some of the dafter Con government ideas ? As I understand it, article 50 has to be invoked before negotiations begin. So what the PM is saying is that once the negotiations are concluded Parliament can reject the agreement. But that means that 2 years after Article 50 is invoked, the UK will have the same status in relation to the EU as any nation that has no trade agreements at all with the EU. Or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said: As I understand it, article 50 has to be invoked before negotiations begin. So what the PM is saying is that once the negotiations are concluded Parliament can reject the agreement. But that means that 2 years after Article 50 is invoked, the UK will have the same status in relation to the EU as any nation that has no trade agreements at all with the EU. Or am I missing something? My understanding is that we remain 100% in the EU until the 2 year period has ellapsed. Because parliament gets to agree the final settlement, it has leverage to ensure an equitable outcome. The fear was that the Con government would hijack the referendum result for their own partisan benefits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughing Gravy Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 We all have our opinions and I agree with some on here and not with others. I do like reading articles and with everything you can believe them or choose not too. Take it as you feel. http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2016/10/17/ecbs-first-chief-economist-warns-the-eu-is-a-house-of-cards/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, Grouse said: My understanding is that we remain 100% in the EU until the 2 year period has ellapsed. Because parliament gets to agree the final settlement, it has leverage to ensure an equitable outcome. The fear was that the Con government would hijack the referendum result for their own partisan benefits. The Parliament may have leverage with the PM's team, but not with the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said: The Parliament may have leverage with the PM's team, but not with the EU. I disagree. Now that's Merkel knows this to be the case, I think we can expect a more pragmatic solution. May's cynical pandering to the mad right wing got many EU backs up. The Germans WERE at least rather pro U.K. Let's see if things don't get back onto a more even keel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 1 minute ago, Grouse said: I disagree. Now that's Merkel knows this to be the case, I think we can expect a more pragmatic solution. May's cynical pandering to the mad right wing got many EU backs up. The Germans WERE at least rather pro U.K. Let's see if things don't get back onto a more even keel. Well, I think this actually increases Merkel's leverage against the UK. I wasn't clear enough in my earlier post. I meant that the Parliament would have leverage against the PM's team but not against Merkel's. In effect, this could make Parliament the EU's ally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 23 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said: We all have our opinions and I agree with some on here and not with others. I do like reading articles and with everything you can believe them or choose not too. Take it as you feel. http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2016/10/17/ecbs-first-chief-economist-warns-the-eu-is-a-house-of-cards/ Another one of those self-important nutty websites surviving on a diet of ads for Bitcoin and Gold. Frenzy fodder mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SgtRock Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 14 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said: Well, I think this actually increases Merkel's leverage against the UK. I wasn't clear enough in my earlier post. I meant that the Parliament would have leverage against the PM's team but not against Merkel's. In effect, this could make Parliament the EU's ally. Merkel is a red herring. She will be gone next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Just now, SgtRock said: Merkel is a red herring. She will be gone next year. I was using Merkel as a shorthand for Germany and the EU. So let me rephrase it for your benefit: The necessity for Parliamentary approval of any agreement coming from the PM's team will greatly increase the leverage of the EU vs. the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Just now, SgtRock said: Merkel is a red herring. She will be gone next year. Should we put that in the same prediction pot as the one of you telling us that sterling was going to bounce back this October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SgtRock Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, SheungWan said: Another one of those self-important nutty websites surviving on a diet of ads for Bitcoin and Gold. Frenzy fodder mostly. Sure. It is a conspiracy and everyone is a nutjob. Quote EU has squandered last chance to make euro workable, warns Ex-Bundesbank chief The former head of the German Bundesbank has warned that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not succeed in raising inflation for years to come and is almost powerless to revive the fortunes of the eurozone on its own. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/11360878/EU-has-sqandered-last-chance-to-make-euro-workable-warns-Ex-Bundesbank-chief.html The current, extended by 6 months ECB QE has done absolutely nothing. Tick Tock said the clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dick dasterdly Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 50 minutes ago, Grouse said: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-could-block-brexit-deal-no-10-admits-a7368561.html%3famp?client=safari This seems to confirm the reason for the recent collapse and current support. May is now sensibly conceding that parliament should indeed have a say in what is finally agreed. Thankfully, this does give parliament leverage and us some protection against some of the dafter Con government ideas ? Interesting times ahead as, assuming MPs are only allowed to vote on the final terms agreed, they will need to be very aware of the attitude of their constituent voters. Many MPs clearly had no idea at the time of the referendum (and got it v wrong...), but having made that bad mistake once, are likely to be more aware in 2+ years time when it comes to the 'crunch' vote for MPs on final brexit terms as there will have to be a General Election within a reasonably short space of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Just now, SheungWan said: Should we put that in the same prediction pot as the one of you telling us that sterling was going to bounce back this October. There is an astonishing, shall we say elasticity in his positions. Apparently, before, in his mind, it was a bad thing for the pound to decline in value. Now that it's happened, magically, it's become a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SgtRock Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said: I was using Merkel as a shorthand for Germany and the EU. So let me rephrase it for your benefit: The necessity for Parliamentary approval of any agreement coming from the PM's team will greatly increase the leverage of the EU vs. the UK. No need to worry about EU leverage with the UK. 3 Things that will change the EU forever in 2017. Merkel Gone Hollande Gone The end of the ineffective ECB QE That is before you throw the devastation of a failed DB into the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SgtRock Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 5 minutes ago, SheungWan said: Should we put that in the same prediction pot as the one of you telling us that sterling was going to bounce back this October. No. You can put that down to the extension of the ECB's QE that they very quietly, without fanfare, slipped in. October 2016 was the original runout date for the QE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 4 minutes ago, SgtRock said: Sure. It is a conspiracy and everyone is a nutjob. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/11360878/EU-has-sqandered-last-chance-to-make-euro-workable-warns-Ex-Bundesbank-chief.html The current, extended by 6 months ECB QE has done absolutely nothing. Tick Tock said the clock. Good clock that! The article is from Jan 2015. Have you got Captain Hook's arm in their as well? Was it halal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilostmypassword Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, SgtRock said: No need to worry about EU leverage with the UK. 3 Things that will change the EU forever in 2017. Merkel Gone Hollande Gone The end of the ineffective ECB QE That is before you throw the devastation of a failed DB into the equation. Even if events do turn out as you predict, why would that mean that the EU would allow the UK to participate in the EU essentially as before? Or on very easy terms? Why would the EU give easier terms to the UK than it would do to its own member nations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockingrobin Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Just now, ilostmypassword said: I was using Merkel as a shorthand for Germany and the EU. So let me rephrase it for your benefit: The necessity for Parliamentary approval of any agreement coming from the PM's team will greatly increase the leverage of the EU vs. the UK. Not quite, the parliament vote discussed comes from CRAG, constitutional reform and governance , there is a section that gives an opt out in exceptional circumstances. While it was suggested article 50(2) is likely to come under CRAG the QC for the government could not guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 28 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said: Well, I think this actually increases Merkel's leverage against the UK. I wasn't clear enough in my earlier post. I meant that the Parliament would have leverage against the PM's team but not against Merkel's. In effect, this could make Parliament the EU's ally. Actually, that's not such a bad thing. At this time I trust Merkel (and several other EU leaders) more than May. May is clearly most interested in protecting her own (unelected) position than protecting the UK. I have NEVER seen a UK prime minister do that previously. There is a perfectly good way forwards which will keep the numpties happy and keep the UK economy strong. No, I'm not going to spell it out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SgtRock Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 (edited) 19 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said: Even if events do turn out as you predict, why would that mean that the EU would allow the UK to participate in the EU essentially as before? Or on very easy terms? Why would the EU give easier terms to the UK than it would do to its own member nations? UK - EU negotations might not even happen. As I posted above regarding the ECB's failed QE Quote The ECB and QE in the Last Chance Saloon http://www.georgemagnus.com/the-ecb-and-qe-in-the-last-chance-saloon/ This is not something that the Brexit vote has brought about. It is far deeper than that. Brexit negotations, if they actually happen, will be a picnic compared to what will happen if the euro fails. Far too many people have forgotten an old mantra. '' Prepare for the worst case scenario, anything better is a bonus '' The fundamentals of the euro were built on sand. That sand is now shifting. Edited October 19, 2016 by SgtRock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughing Gravy Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 (edited) 34 minutes ago, SheungWan said: Another one of those self-important nutty websites surviving on a diet of ads for Bitcoin and Gold. Frenzy fodder mostly. Actually there were quotes from the Telegraph if you read it but as I said take it as you feel. I guess we are all nutty as long as we agree with you eh. Edited October 19, 2016 by Laughing Gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 5 minutes ago, SgtRock said: UK - EU negotations might not even happen. As I posted above regarding the ECB's failed QE http://www.georgemagnus.com/the-ecb-and-qe-in-the-last-chance-saloon/ This is not something that the Brexit vote has brought about. It is far deeper than that. Brexit negotations, if they actually happen, will be a picnic compared to what will happen if the euro fails. Far too many people have forgotten an old mantra. '' Prepare for the worst case scenario, anything better is a bonus '' Thats from December 2014! Is your clock running backwards? Tock tick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SgtRock Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 33 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said: I was using Merkel as a shorthand for Germany and the EU. So let me rephrase it for your benefit: The necessity for Parliamentary approval of any agreement coming from the PM's team will greatly increase the leverage of the EU vs. the UK. Actually, you did not. Most people accept that Merkel is the Defacto head of the EU. No need to rephrase for my benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dick dasterdly Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Grouse said: Actually, that's not such a bad thing. At this time I trust Merkel (and several other EU leaders) more than May. May is clearly most interested in protecting her own (unelected) position than protecting the UK. I have NEVER seen a UK prime minister do that previously. There is a perfectly good way forwards which will keep the numpties happy and keep the UK economy strong. No, I'm not going to spell it out.... I'm obviously an ignoramus, and so need you to spell it out. Edit - what is your definition of a "numpty". You keep talking about them and I've no idea what you mean. Edited October 19, 2016 by dick dasterdly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grouse Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e7889048-951b-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582?client=safari Rather more recent! Another untrustworthy biased rag.... It's not great but it's not Armageddon either. Sorry to ruin Rock's day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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