UK economy 'faces prolonged weakness', Item Club report says

[webfact]

UK economy 'faces prolonged weakness', Item Club report says

 

LONDON: -- Britain's economy faces a "prolonged period" of weaker growth as consumer spending slows and business curbs investment, according to a report.

 

Although the EY Item Club think tank predicts the economy will grow 1.9% this year, it expects that performance to fizzle out as inflation rises.

 

The economy's stability since June's Brexit vote was "deceptive", EY said. Meanwhile, a senior Bank of England official told the BBC that inflation may surpass its 2% target.

 

Full story: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37674169

 

-- © Copyright BBC 2016-10-17

[stander]

Confidence in Britain at five year HIGH after Brexit in slap in the face to Remoaners

 

UK consumer confidence has shrugged off Brexit jitters to hit a five-year high, a survey shows.

Deloitte’s latest Consumer Tracker showed that confidence recovered to a reading of minus five per cent for the three months to September, compared with minus eight per cent in the second quarter.

 

It not only marks a five-year high, but the largest quarterly rise in 18 months. The survey polled some 3,000 consumers from September 16 to 18 and accounted for key indicators including job security, inflation and spending on essentials and discretionary items.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/721845/Confidence-consumer-UK-Britain-HIGH-Brexit-retail-business-economy

[Srikcir]

As we have seen in Thailand recently where consumer confidence is the highest in six months, economic recovery remains largley independent and more effected by contracting exports, higher inflation and unemployment. The same elements now being forecasted for UK. China just warned that "global [meaning China] faces prolonged weakness." So much for an economic White Knight.

I fear the worst in terms of UK economy has yet to be realized.

[chiang mai]

35 minutes ago, stander said:

Confidence in Britain at five year HIGH after Brexit in slap in the face to Remoaners

 

UK consumer confidence has shrugged off Brexit jitters to hit a five-year high, a survey shows.

Deloitte’s latest Consumer Tracker showed that confidence recovered to a reading of minus five per cent for the three months to September, compared with minus eight per cent in the second quarter.

 

It not only marks a five-year high, but the largest quarterly rise in 18 months. The survey polled some 3,000 consumers from September 16 to 18 and accounted for key indicators including job security, inflation and spending on essentials and discretionary items.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/721845/Confidence-consumer-UK-Britain-HIGH-Brexit-retail-business-economy

 

A couple of things about that article:

 

The Deloitte index is still at -5!

 

It said that people were happy about disinflation but that was before the Pound crashed!!

 

The survey was done on 15 September, before the Pound fell!!! Repeat the survey today and you'd get seriously different answers.

[Enoon]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

 

A couple of things about that article:

 

The Deloitte index is still at -5!

 

It said that people were happy about disinflation but that was before the Pound crashed!!

 

The survey was done on 15 September, before the Pound fell!!! Repeat the survey today and you'd get seriously different answers.

 

The most important thing about the article is:

 

It's from the Daily Express!

 

And, as always, completely and utterly untrustworthy.

[Enoon]

1 hour ago, Srikcir said:

As we have seen in Thailand recently where consumer confidence is the highest in six months, economic recovery remains largley independent and more effected by contracting exports, higher inflation and unemployment. The same elements now being forecasted for UK. China just warned that "global [meaning China] faces prolonged weakness." So much for an economic White Knight.

I fear the worst in terms of UK economy has yet to be realized.

 

It'll be another few months before it is bad enough (and the courts have made their final judgements) for Ms May to make the announcement that she so desperately wants to.  Meanwhile the suffering must go on.

 

It's all about timing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stander]

Another plus for the in UK, but no doubt the remoaners will find a way to spin this negatively. 

 

Thales picks UK for new plant to build revolutionary satellite engines

 

Advanced electric engines to power satellites will be built in the UK, with Thales announcing its backing for Britain’s space industry.

The French company is investing in producing the engines at its base in Belfast, opening a new manufacturing facility in the city.

On Tuesday astronaut Tim Peake will officially open the new centre where Thales is recruiting 150 engineers, with plans to take staffing levels up to 350 within two years.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/17/thales-picks-uk-for-new-plant-to-build-revolutionary-satellite-e/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[pitrevie]

2 hours ago, Enoon said:

 

The most important thing about the article is:

 

It's from the Daily Express!

 

And, as always, completely and utterly untrustworthy.

 

I agree but weren't they strong supporters of Brexit?

[Khun Han]

This contains the Item Club's predicton for the second half of this year, made in July:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36819657

 

Christ! If they got a prediction of the immediate future so wrong, what confidence should we have in their medium term one?

[RickBradford]

2 hours ago, Enoon said:

 

The most important thing about the article is:

 

It's from the Daily Express!

 

And, as always, completely and utterly untrustworthy.

What irony -- the OP report was from the BBC, who are, as always, completely and utterly untrustworthy, especially on the Brexit issue.

 

The BBC has been saturation bombing the airwaves with anti-Brexit propaganda for 3 months, because the idea of the UK leaving Europe upsets their snowflake PC sensibilities.

[sandyf]

Not the only view in that direction.

 

Investor Jim Rogers says there are "serious problems facing the UK" and that the pound's value will "certainly go under one dollar" if Scotland leaves the UK.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37659503

[pitrevie]

11 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

What irony -- the OP report was from the BBC, who are, as always, completely and utterly untrustworthy, especially on the Brexit issue.

 

The BBC has been saturation bombing the airwaves with anti-Brexit propaganda for 3 months, because the idea of the UK leaving Europe upsets their snowflake PC sensibilities.

 

Strange because only recently one of the Daily Hail leader writers Stephen Glover congratulated the BBC on its laudible impartial coverage during the Brexit campaign while adding that they had gone off the rails since.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3835452/STEPHEN-GLOVER-referendum-BBC-laudably-impartial-just-knew-good-true.html

[Khun Han]

2 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

 

Strange because only recently one of the Daily Hail leader writers Stephen Glover congratulated the BBC on its laudible impartial coverage during the Brexit campaign while adding that they had gone off the rails since.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3835452/STEPHEN-GLOVER-referendum-BBC-laudably-impartial-just-knew-good-true.html

 

Isn't that what RickBradford just said, the last three months?

[Khun Han]

We're going to see items like this on an almost daily basis between now and next March. They suddenly ramped up again when PM May announced Article 50 by the end of March.

[pitrevie]

13 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Isn't that what RickBradford just said, the last three months?

 

You obviously didn't read his first sentence, " What irony -- the OP report was from the BBC, who are, as always, completely and utterly untrustworthy, especially on the Brexit issue." So in answer to your question, No

[dunroaming]

The UK produces quality products and services and with the pound at record lows then it is not surprising that the economy is booming.  Can't see anything turning the pound round any time soon so exports should keep strong.  Of course the weak pound also means that prices will rise which in the real world means that the ordinary working people will be worse off.  Compares to a wage cut really.  Still as long as the businessmen are doing well who cars!

[RickBradford]

35 minutes ago, pitrevie said:

 

You obviously didn't read his first sentence, " What irony -- the OP report was from the BBC, who are, as always, completely and utterly untrustworthy, especially on the Brexit issue." So in answer to your question, No

To clarify the point, the BBC were vastly biased against Brexit before, during and after the referendum, to the extent that their anchor on the referendum night, David Dimbleby, bemoaned on-air the fact that "we" had lost the referendum. There's a video clip of it somewhere.

 

They hate the idea that the peasants, who they regard as stupid, easily brainwashed, bigoted or racist (or all four) can push around self-styled elites like the BBC and their chums in the metropolitan echo chamber.

 

It offends their PC sensibilities in the most visceral way, and they show it, day after day.

 

Anyone who thinks the BBC are, or ever have been, or ever will be, neutral on this issue, should go and sit in a corner to wait for the men with white coats to turn up.

[Rancid]

OK, so the article is suggesting a weakness in the UK, but I didn't see anywhere it suggesting that the EU will be any better, or will they actually be much worse? So easy for the media to give a desired impression by selective writing that omits contradictory or conflicting data. See a few here have realised certain publications are biased, now just take that a step further...

[pitrevie]

28 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

To clarify the point, the BBC were vastly biased against Brexit before, during and after the referendum, to the extent that their anchor on the referendum night, David Dimbleby, bemoaned on-air the fact that "we" had lost the referendum. There's a video clip of it somewhere.

 

They hate the idea that the peasants, who they regard as stupid, easily brainwashed, bigoted or racist (or all four) can push around self-styled elites like the BBC and their chums in the metropolitan echo chamber.

 

It offends their PC sensibilities in the most visceral way, and they show it, day after day.

 

Anyone who thinks the BBC are, or ever have been, or ever will be, neutral on this issue, should go and sit in a corner to wait for the men with white coats to turn up.

 

To clarify the Stephen Glover a lead writer of the Daily Hail that most rabid of Brexit supporters thought that the BBC's Brexit coverage was laudably impartial.

[dunroaming]

18 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

To clarify the point, the BBC were vastly biased against Brexit before, during and after the referendum, to the extent that their anchor on the referendum night, David Dimbleby, bemoaned on-air the fact that "we" had lost the referendum. There's a video clip of it somewhere.

 

They hate the idea that the peasants, who they regard as stupid, easily brainwashed, bigoted or racist (or all four) can push around self-styled elites like the BBC and their chums in the metropolitan echo chamber.

 

It offends their PC sensibilities in the most visceral way, and they show it, day after day.

 

Anyone who thinks the BBC are, or ever have been, or ever will be, neutral on this issue, should go and sit in a corner to wait for the men with white coats to turn up.

 

That will be the left wing BBC will it?

 

Anyone who actually thinks that Johnson was in it for anything other than political gain will be interested in the recent news that twenty four hours before he came out for Brexit we wrote an statement articulating strongly the reasons for voting remain.

[RickBradford]

Quote

That will be the left wing BBC will it?

 

Not left-wing like Lenin or Pol Pot, no.

 

But cluelessly "progressive" and politically correct enough to keep banging on about "far-Right" groups of people - i.e. anyone who disagrees with their infantile kumbaya view of the world.

 

Johnson is a politician -- of course he's in it for political gain.

[harleyclarkey]

It's just started.

 

The spat between Unilever and Tesco is but the start of rising prices, inflation and a long road to recovery.

 

If you think the EC will reward the UK for leaving the EC and slapping them in the face you are not in the real world.

 

Single market access, with zero tolerance, will depend on;

1. Free movement of goods and people.

2. The UK will still have to pay in billions to the EC or ignore the single market.

 

Boreis (sic) Johnson and that twit Nigel Farage have done the UK no service. Patriots? That's a laugh. Their lies and more lies in their campaigns were a total falsehood.

Just one lie....." During the EU referendum, Vote Leave claimed leaving the EU could save the UK £350m a week in contributions.  But an unnamed cabinet minister has told Newsnight that the UK may end up "paying quite a lot" of that money to secure access to the single market. "   (BBC)

 

Wait for Scotland to have their second referendum and watch the break up of their beloved UK. 

Nice one Boys...all down to you!.

[eliotness]

27 minutes ago, harleyclarkey said:

It's just started.

 

The spat between Unilever and Tesco is but the start of rising prices, inflation and a long road to recovery.

 

If you think the EC will reward the UK for leaving the EC and slapping them in the face you are not in the real world.

 

Single market access, with zero tolerance, will depend on;

1. Free movement of goods and people.

 

2. The UK will still have to pay in billions to the EC or ignore the single market.

 

Boreis (sic) Johnson and that twit Nigel Farage have done the UK no service. Patriots? That's a laugh. Their lies and more lies in their campaigns were a total falsehood.

Just one lie....." During the EU referendum, Vote Leave claimed leaving the EU could save the UK £350m a week in contributions.  But an unnamed cabinet minister has told Newsnight that the UK may end up "paying quite a lot" of that money to secure access to the single market. "   (BBC)

 

Wait for Scotland to have their second referendum and watch the break up of their beloved UK. 

Nice one Boys.

 

If Scotland does vote to leave the UK it would be political and economic suicide.  More "Scots" live and work in England than do in Scotland.  Just imagine they'd all need work permits.  All the government agencies that moved North of Hadrian's Wall would move South, creating a surge of jobs in the rest of the UK.  All RN ships would be built in England or NI, the Clyde would die.  They may not like Faslane, but it provides thousands of related jobs.  Oil prices will remain low, but fracking will boost the UK without the need for Scottish oil.  The SNP are just full of BS and the Remainers are backing a losing horse - again !!!

[Grouse]

Why is it that Brexiteers can never accept that their better informed, better educated superiors might just have a valid point? There are more peasants than intellectuals does that make them correct? I found the BBC excruciating in their pursuit of balance. Sometimes, just sometimes, experts might be right.

[RuamRudy]

1 hour ago, eliotness said:

More "Scots" live and work in England than do in Scotland.

What a bizarre statement. According to this, around 800,000 Scots live in England. Scotland's population is around 5.3 million. That is more than 800,000 so you are incorrect.

 

1 hour ago, eliotness said:

All the government agencies that moved North of Hadrian's Wall would move South, creating a surge of jobs in the rest of the UK

Presumably they provide a function - then that function would also be required by an independent Scotland, albeit in a more slimmed down and (hopefully) efficient form.

 

1 hour ago, eliotness said:

All RN ships would be built in England or NI, the Clyde would die.

Well Thatcher did her damndest to kill it off in the 80s. According to this, there are around 2,400 people working in shipbuilding in the Clyde. While those jobs are, without a doubt, important, do we hold back the nation because of the potential loss of RN orders? Will an independent Scotland not require ships? Will we be unable to sustain shipbuilding without our mighty southern benefactors?

 

1 hour ago, eliotness said:

They may not like Faslane, but it provides thousands of related jobs.

Are you sure? The number seems very disputed, however either way, many jobs will be created during the removal and decommissioning of Trident from Faslane, and the opening up of the area to development will create many more, not to mention the removal of the moratorium on producing oil from the Clyde Basin.

 

1 hour ago, eliotness said:

Oil prices will remain low, but fracking will boost the UK without the need for Scottish oil.

Oil prices are on the rise and OPEC finally appears to have gotten its house in order, however no economy should be based upon a volatile market, and thankfully Scotland has a modern, diverse economy, not to mention being a world leader in renewable energy..

 

1 hour ago, eliotness said:

The SNP are just full of BS

Examples, please, or is this just a huge chip on your shoulder?

Edited October 17, 2016 by RuamRudy

[RickBradford]

31 minutes ago, Grouse said:

There are more peasants than intellectuals does that make them correct?

In a referendum, yes, it does. That's the whole point of a referendum.

 

Quote

Sometimes, just sometimes, experts might be right.

 

There can no right or wrong in a question where people were asked 'What do you want to happen?' It's subjective.

 

There are a series of trade-offs - what will the economy do, which way does unemployment go, what are the social impacts, and so on. Nobody, however well informed and well educated they are, can predict all the effects of Brexit.

 

The arrogant types who think they do know it all should perhaps heed the words of the 19th-century Prime Minister Lord Salisbury

 

"No lesson seems to be so deeply inculcated by experience of life as that you should never trust experts. If you believe doctors, nothing is wholesome; if you believe theologians, nothing is innocent; if you believe soldiers, nothing is safe."

[MJP]

40 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Why is it that Brexiteers can never accept that their better informed, better educated superiors might just have a valid point? There are more peasants than intellectuals does that make them correct? I found the BBC excruciating in their pursuit of balance. Sometimes, just sometimes, experts might be right.

 

Or maybe, just maybe the UK was heading for a post-2008 QE recession anyway yet being dragged into a centrally controlled (by Brussels) federalist EU would be have been forever.

[Srikcir]

17 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

do we hold back the nation because of the potential loss of RN orders

UK may be ordering new ships outside of the UK already.

"A new class of ships for the Navy to support Britain’s aircraft carriers could be built outside the UK as the Ministry of Defence seeks savings in its under-pressure budget." July 24, 2016

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/24/mon-fears-new-ships-to-back-up-royal-navy-will-be-built-overseas/

 

[Khun Han]

55 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Why is it that Brexiteers can never accept that their better informed, better educated superiors might just have a valid point? There are more peasants than intellectuals does that make them correct? I found the BBC excruciating in their pursuit of balance. Sometimes, just sometimes, experts might be right.

 

Like I said (and linked to), Item Club got it spectacularly wrong in July, and they were discussing the immediate future, then! Why cant remainers accept that the particular group of 'experts' that they hang on to keep getting it wrong? Why do they dismiss expert assessments from the IMF and people such as Mervyn King so blithely? Why do they come up with a myriad of excuses as to why so many major businesses (who are the real players in all of this) aren't following the remainer script?

[Grouse]

24 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

In a referendum, yes, it does. That's the whole point of a referendum.

 

 

There can no right or wrong in a question where people were asked 'What do you want to happen?' It's subjective.

 

There are a series of trade-offs - what will the economy do, which way does unemployment go, what are the social impacts, and so on. Nobody, however well informed and well educated they are, can predict all the effects of Brexit.

 

The arrogant types who think they do know it all should perhaps heed the words of the 19th-century Prime Minister Lord Salisbury

 

"No lesson seems to be so deeply inculcated by experience of life as that you should never trust experts. If you believe doctors, nothing is wholesome; if you believe theologians, nothing is innocent; if you believe soldiers, nothing is safe."

 

And this is what is so dangerous about referendums. Now, I accept the result in that I do not want another referendum, but don't expect me to agree that leaving the EU is a good move. It depresses me that Brexiteers, in general, can not accept a single point....