Thai baht getting stronger and stronger

[pistachios]

26 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

Actually, the central bank relies many times on a countries commercial banks to support  a currency to hide intervention. This happens frequently in Thailand.

In regard to undervalued or overvalued- I would disagree- the Thai Baht is too high based upon the actual fundamentals of the economy. The GDP figure is poor for a developing country- look at the countries surrounding Thailand and also China.

The reason the Baht is relatively strong is the fact that investors have been going into the Thai stock market at various times with large infusions of foreign currencies but they can also pull out quickly which  the weeks events have shown. This is where the central bank and commercial banks come into play to stabilize the currency.

Thailand is a good bet long term because it has a good base for investment and a relatively stable political system. The longer the military remains in power and solidifies that stability the better it looks to investors.

 

 

So your explanation for the stengthening of the Thai Baht is that the Bank of Thailand over-compensated for the massive pull out of foreign investors money.

Seems quite unlogical.

A simpler explanation : Exports are on the rise (latest value +6.5%) while imports are diminishing (-1.5%). Last event certainly didn't do any good for imports while exports markets have been unaffected.

[chiang mai]

15 minutes ago, yogi100 said:

 

I remember it being 32 baht in April '84.

 

Yes, I remember 33 in 1985.

[chiang mai]

39 minutes ago, Thaidream said:

Actually, the central bank relies many times on a countries commercial banks to support  a currency to hide intervention. This happens frequently in Thailand.

In regard to undervalued or overvalued- I would disagree- the Thai Baht is too high based upon the actual fundamentals of the economy. The GDP figure is poor for a developing country- look at the countries surrounding Thailand and also China.

The reason the Baht is relatively strong is the fact that investors have been going into the Thai stock market at various times with large infusions of foreign currencies but they can also pull out quickly which  the weeks events have shown. This is where the central bank and commercial banks come into play to stabilize the currency.

Thailand is a good bet long term because it has a good base for investment and a relatively stable political system. The longer the military remains in power and solidifies that stability the better it looks to investors.

 

 

"the Thai Baht is too high based upon the actual fundamentals of the economy. The GDP figure is poor for a developing country- look at the countries surrounding Thailand and also China".

 

Hmmm! Which is it, too high or not high enough, remembering that currencies inevitably following economies. And if not high enough, compared to the West which really is where the comparison needs to be made.

[i claudius]

I am convinced that the Thai baht will either go up or down,I am usually right,as most of you know

Sent from my ASUS_T00J using Tapatalk

[BrainLife]

If you need to worry about 20-30 Euro loss, spend less, drink less, <deleted> less and you will have 200-300Euro to spare

[chiang mai]

20 minutes ago, i claudius said:

I am convinced that the Thai baht will either go up or down,I am usually right,as most of you know

Sent from my ASUS_T00J using Tapatalk
 

 

About as useful constructive and welcome of a phrase as, "now then, now then"!!

[i claudius]

 

About as useful constructive and welcome of a phrase as, "now then, now then"!!

Now then now, then ,Chiang Mai,!!

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[seadigital]

2 hours ago, Berkshire said:

 

This I can agree with.  If Trump becomes President (God forbid), not only will the USD crater, but so will the US stock market.  That would suck.

Well, I was lined up to buy real gold in Thailand (one can avoid the 30% capital gains tax)
I was also thinking if Trump was to win, buy PUTS in the options market against the S&P. 

Trumps trade war rhetoric with China would be investor sentiment to worry.

I'm not quite sure what to invest in with HRC.  The FED will probably raise rates at a snails pace and the market will go sideways until some news comes out. 

I'm quite interested to hear any ideas what to invest in with Hillary.  New polls suggest she'll be the next pres.

Oh, and the SET dropped almost 8% before our beloved kind passed, but the day after the SET was bullish along with the THB.  Didn't make any sense to me.  There was almost a billion dollars pulled out of foreign investment the 4 days prior, but after?  (Confused)

Edited October 19, 2016 by seadigital

[hobobo]

10 hours ago, IMA_FARANG said:

I seriously believe that a  bank or a group of banks in Thailand is attempting to maintain the Thai Baht stronger aginst other international currencies durring this period of mourning [n Thailand by buying Baht and selling dollsrs and other international currencies.

The same could posssibly be true for the Pound and the Euro also.

What about the Icelandic Krona (ISK). You seem to know these things better than most, so I ask you to help me...

[catman20]

nice to see we can post on this topic , as others we can not post maybe they call it sellective posting? if farangs stop spending they will get the message. but its not going to happen............................sorry

Edited October 19, 2016 by catman20

[lannarebirth]

5 hours ago, seadigital said:

Well, I was lined up to buy real gold in Thailand (one can avoid the 30% capital gains tax)
I was also thinking if Trump was to win, buy PUTS in the options market against the S&P. 

Trumps trade war rhetoric with China would be investor sentiment to worry.

I'm not quite sure what to invest in with HRC.  The FED will probably raise rates at a snails pace and the market will go sideways until some news comes out. 

I'm quite interested to hear any ideas what to invest in with Hillary.  New polls suggest she'll be the next pres.

Oh, and the SET dropped almost 8% before our beloved kind passed, but the day after the SET was bullish along with the THB.  Didn't make any sense to me.  There was almost a billion dollars pulled out of foreign investment the 4 days prior, but after?  (Confused)

 

You may remember the Thai SET index moved up and never looked back, starting the day after the Bali bombing

[Xircal]

There are rumour flying around at the moment that the ECB is planning to wind down its stimulus program: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5551-taper-talk-just-a-misunderstanding-or-a-real-possibility

 

if that happens it's likely to lift the value of the currency although by how much is difficult to say. Also it's unlikely to begin until March next year.

 

At the moment though, the FX rate seems to be getting worse rather than better unfortunately: http://www.bangkokbank.com/BangkokBank/WebServices/Rates/Pages/FX_Rates.aspx

 

[Brer Fox]

A high baht does not help export trade. Exports have been declining month after month; no surprises there.

A top economist reminds the government not to ignore exports in favour of domestic consumption which is inflationary and can cause a household debt crisis.

So there is a conundrum for the government.

a. Lower the baht so as to boost exports.

or

b. Maintain the baht within it's present range so as to appease the rich and famous ensuring their stashed away wealth will not diminish in value.

or

c. Find a balance between the two.

 

There is a rider to the above choices. There is only one real option and that is b.

 

http://news.thaivisa.com/thailand/top-economist-warns-of-risk-of-bubble-in-household-debt/157089/

Edited October 20, 2016 by Brer Fox

[cdnvic]

Had to hide too many posts because too many people aren't smart enough to understand that tying this subject to a recent event in Thailand is a very very bad idea. Next time it's not a warning but a long suspension if not an outright ban.

 

Use your heads people.

 

/closed