May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[Naam]

25 minutes ago, Flustered said:

To constantly talk down the UK helps no one.

hear... hear...

[Naam]

1 hour ago, pitrevie said:

2 hours ago, petermik said:

And I sincerely hope you live long enough to enjoy it......me too for that matter

Onwards and upwards for Great Britain now is the only way

I will be grateful if I live long enough to see it.

take a wild guess who else.

[Naam]

14 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

The krauts will soon be sobbing as they have to plug the hole from no further UK payments ..And the other 26 will still want their grubby handouts but UK won't be paying as their factories start laying off car workers..Just wait for the EU to implode in the coming months from cash shortages 

[rockingrobin]

1 hour ago, Flustered said:

This actually destroys any credibility the "victim"  may have been able to claim.

 

Despite constantly baiting and flaming others he cries and runs to mummy as soon as he feels he is loosing. Absolutely pathetic.

 

Theresa May has constantly been misquoted and her remarks spun by other FMs as well as the BBC and lefty politicians.

 

No where has she made any remark that could be taken to be blackmail. To simply say that if we come away with no deal, security could be weakened is nothing more than the truth.

 

it's about time the remain brigade started realising that we all need the best deal possible as there is no going back. To constantly talk down the UK helps no one.

From the Art 50 letter

 

'If, however, we leave the European Union without an agreement the default position is that we would have to trade on World Trade Organisation terms. In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened. '

 

The use of ' our cooperation' could be regarded as an implicit threat. If the UKs intention was to merely make a statement then simply  the term 'our cooperation'  could have been omitted.   

[Khun Han]

10 minutes ago, rockingrobin said:

From the Art 50 letter

 

'If, however, we leave the European Union without an agreement the default position is that we would have to trade on World Trade Organisation terms. In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened. '

 

The use of ' our cooperation' could be regarded as an implicit threat. If the UKs intention was to merely make a statement then simply  the term 'our cooperation'  could have been omitted.   

 

Whichever way you want to interpret this, it's obvious from their responses that the EU did not expect the UK to play hardball. It has served as a very effective wake-up call to them. Remember the EU goon, on being asked if they would offer the UK a good trade deal, replying with a smirk: "Why should we? What's in it for us?" Well, here's one "should": you get your third-rate intelligence services brought up to speed by a first-rate one if you do. Did the EU really think they would have things all their own way in negotiations? Fools. No amount of bleating by them will give them that privilege.

[pitrevie]

27 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Whichever way you want to interpret this, it's obvious from their responses that the EU did not expect the UK to play hardball. It has served as a very effective wake-up call to them. Remember the EU goon, on being asked if they would offer the UK a good trade deal, replying with a smirk: "Why should we? What's in it for us?" Well, here's one "should": you get your third-rate intelligence services brought up to speed by a first-rate one if you do. Did the EU really think they would have things all their own way in negotiations? Fools. No amount of bleating by them will give them that privilege.

You've become an expert on the intelligence services now have you?

[evadgib]

The actual discussions will differ significantly to whatever each side peddle in public. We'll be none the wiser in reality until Oct 18 at the earliest. Take anything with a pinch of salt until well into next year...

[Naam]

1 hour ago, evadgib said:

The actual discussions will differ significantly to whatever each side peddle in public. We'll be none the wiser in reality until Oct 18 at the earliest. Take anything with a pinch of salt until well into next year...

make that pinch of salt a ton (or two) especially when reading the distortions, inventions and assumptions of journ-arse-lists from either side!

[Flustered]

4 hours ago, rockingrobin said:

From the Art 50 letter

 

' our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened. '
 

It's one of those phrases that can be taken several ways.

 

As an optimist about Brexit and fed up with the EU  constantly threatening us, I read this as us being the ones to suffer if it we went to WTO.

 

We cooperate to the full at present but with the EU pushing us into WTO, it would mean cooperation as a whole could be weakened. She did not say "the EU or the UK", she used the collective term.

[Orac]

It's one of those phrases that can be taken several ways.
 
As an optimist about Brexit and fed up with the EU  constantly threatening us, I read this as us being the ones to suffer if it we went to WTO.
 
We cooperate to the full at present but with the EU pushing us into WTO, it would mean cooperation as a whole could be weakened. She did not say "the EU or the UK", she used the collective term.

Can't see how the EU is pushing us into WTO since, by leaving the single market and customs union which is a requirement for us to have our own trade deals, there is no other option I am aware of.

[evadgib]

White Paper:

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/david-davis-commons-statement-on-the-great-repeal-bill-white-paper

[Flustered]

41 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

Can't see how the EU is pushing us into WTO since, by leaving the single market and customs union which is a requirement for us to have our own trade deals, there is no other option I am aware of.

Pretty simple, but a bit hard to follow this part of your sentence "by leaving the single market and customs union which is a requirement for us to have our own trade deals".

 

We either cut a trade deal with e EU or we use WTO with them. It's the EU that are cutting up rough and threatening punishment etc, so if we don't reach a deal the EU will have pushed us into using WTO terms and conditions.

 

I think people misunderstand that the single market and customs union are not the same thing.

[Orac]

Pretty simple, but a bit hard to follow this part of your sentence "by leaving the single market and customs union which is a requirement for us to have our own trade deals".
 
We either cut a trade deal with e EU or we use WTO with them. It's the EU that are cutting up rough and threatening punishment etc, so if we don't reach a deal the EU will have pushed us into using WTO terms and conditions.
 
I think people misunderstand that the single market and customs union are not the same thing.

By leaving the EU we will automatically have to join the WTO in our own right rather than being part of the joint EU membership as it stands at the moment and, as such, any future agreement will be under WTO rules.

Our external tariff will also need WTO approval by all members and establishing it will be a huge task in its own right.

[Johnyo]

Pretty simple, but a bit hard to follow this part of your sentence "by leaving the single market and customs union which is a requirement for us to have our own trade deals".
 
We either cut a trade deal with e EU or we use WTO with them. It's the EU that are cutting up rough and threatening punishment etc, so if we don't reach a deal the EU will have pushed us into using WTO terms and conditions.
 
I think people misunderstand that the single market and customs union are not the same thing.

Please explain why the EU is under any obligation to do a trade deal with the U.K? The U.K left so by default it's WTO. If that is not what the U.K wants then better let them know what you want. The U. K only represents 10% of their exports whilst Europe represents 44% of the U.K exports. It appears to me that the U.K needs Europe rather than the other way.




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[Flustered]

3 hours ago, Orac said:

 

By leaving the EU we will automatically have to join the WTO in our own right rather than being part of the joint EU membership as it stands at the moment and, as such, any future agreement will be under WTO rules.

Our external tariff will also need WTO approval by all members and establishing it will be a huge task in its own right.

But if we negotiate a deal with the EU prior to the exit, we will not have to use the WTO rules with them.

 

Then we can negotiate other deals with better conditions than the EU as we do not have to consider 27 other partners.

[Flustered]

2 hours ago, Johnyo said:

 

 

Please explain why the EU is under any obligation to do a trade deal with the U.K? The U.K left so by default it's WTO. If that is not what the U.K wants then better let them know what you want. The U. K only represents 10% of their exports whilst Europe represents 44% of the U.K exports. It appears to me that the U.K needs Europe rather than the other way.




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What a strange post.

 

There have been multitudes of posts showing graphs re trade between countries (EU) and the UK. The EU are far more dependent on the UK than we are on them. We run a massive deficit with them simply for the privilege of paying money into their club that we have very little say in.

 

Only today on the BBC, there was a program about Mijas in Spain where the Mayor is very worried about us leaving. The town will simply die if we are forced out without a deal. The Costa del Sol relies on the British to keep it's economy afloat and this is just one small place in the EU.

 

I just  do not understand why people are so negative about this great opportunity. I have never understood people who would rather see failure than success. It's a done deal and we have to take advantage of it, not cry like spoilt children whop have had their toys taken away from them.

[Aforek]

There are British expats on this forum who have opened a post to change their nationality , there must be a reason 

[shanesox]

 

 

Please explain why the EU is under any obligation to do a trade deal with the U.K? The U.K left so by default it's WTO. If that is not what the U.K wants then better let them know what you want. The U. K only represents 10% of their exports whilst Europe represents 44% of the U.K exports. It appears to me that the U.K needs Europe rather than the other way.

 

 

 

 

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Typical of the nonsense spouted. There are countries that make up the EU who also need to trade with Uk as nation states for their own economy and employment. They need UK business more than UK needs them ! Problem is the EU hard core philes will dissuade these from doing free trade deals . After all it would make a mockery of the whole European Union bureaucratic project!

 

 

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[shanesox]

There are British expats on this forum who have opened a post to change their nationality , there must be a reason 

British expats who still have property,investments,money in the UK. Still have the vote and use it!



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[sandyf]

18 hours ago, shanesox said:

The Merkels and bureaucrats in Brussels can talk tough at beginning that's their prerogative. Negotiating will change hardline views! Of course many remain voters from last years ref want no deal and failure . Europhiles to the core!


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Only those that fail to recognise the existence of failure would perceive it to be the desire of others.

[sandyf]

10 hours ago, Orac said:

 

By leaving the EU we will automatically have to join the WTO in our own right rather than being part of the joint EU membership as it stands at the moment and, as such, any future agreement will be under WTO rules.

Our external tariff will also need WTO approval by all members and establishing it will be a huge task in its own right.

 

Exactly, and something that many just want to ignore. Although the UK is a member of the WTO it has no profile, the UK currently trades globally under the EU profile.

Before the UK can trade with any country in its own right under the WTO arrangement there must be a UK profile put in place, and that as you say will require the approval of all WTO members. Establishing a profile, even if they just copy the EU, is not going to happen overnight and it is almost a certainty that Argentinia and Spain will try and use their vote to their advantage.

There is also a question mark over whether the EU will allow the UK to establish a WTO profile while it is still a member of the EU

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Exactly, and something that many just want to ignore. Although the UK is a member of the WTO it has no profile, the UK currently trades globally under the EU profile.

Before the UK can trade with any country in its own right under the WTO arrangement there must be a UK profile put in place, and that as you say will require the approval of all WTO members. Establishing a profile, even if they just copy the EU, is not going to happen overnight and it is almost a certainty that Argentinia and Spain will try and use their vote to their advantage.

There is also a question mark over whether the EU will allow the UK to establish a WTO profile while it is still a member of the EU

It will not make sense while negotiations are still on-going.

[Orac]

It will not make sense while negotiations are still on-going.

 

There would be a need for three external tariffs ready to roll on our exit, one for a 'no trade deal' scenario, a second, flexible one,based on the ongoing negotiations and a third for use under a transitional arrangement which would probably be a mirror of the customs union rates.

 

Though there is the promise of quick trade deals with other countries this would be extremely difficult if not impossible to negotiate until our final, totally out of the EU wether or not a trade deal is in place, profile is in place since there is little point negotiating with a partner who has not even established a starting position for trade talks.

 

On the assumption that we are leaving the EU Single Market, the sooner we can get our new profile in place, the better for sorting out our trading position with the rest of the world and moving towards the future whatever it may hold.

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, Orac said:

 

There would be a need for three external tariffs ready to roll on our exit, one for a 'no trade deal' scenario, a second, flexible one,based on the ongoing negotiations and a third for use under a transitional arrangement which would probably be a mirror of the customs union rates.

 

Though there is the promise of quick trade deals with other countries this would be extremely difficult if not impossible to negotiate until our final, totally out of the EU wether or not a trade deal is in place, profile is in place since there is little point negotiating with a partner who has not even established a starting position for trade talks.

 

On the assumption that we are leaving the EU Single Market, the sooner we can get our new profile in place, the better for sorting out our trading position with the rest of the world and moving towards the future whatever it may hold.

No doubt there will be preparation for different scenarios but that is quite different from an established position. As negotiations progress (or not as the case may be), watch out for those on the hard Brexiteer wing who will progressively come to the fore with their shrill message to terminate negotiations for a quick break to the WTO as the solution they always wanted anyway. Stand by.

[dick dasterdly]

21 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

No doubt there will be preparation for different scenarios but that is quite different from an established position. As negotiations progress (or not as the case may be), watch out for those on the hard Brexiteer wing who will progressively come to the fore with their shrill message to terminate negotiations for a quick break to the WTO as the solution they always wanted anyway. Stand by.

"watch out for those on the hard Brexiteer wing who will progressively come to the fore with their shrill message to terminate negotiations for a quick break to the WTO as the solution they always wanted anyway. Stand by. "

 

Interesting....  Those who disagree with your point of view are posting with a "shrill message".....  Although I'm possibly being unfair insofar as you refer to the "hard brexiteer wing".  Even so, I've read very few "shrill" posts from either side of the debate so far - although your post comes close IMO .

[Khun Han]

9 hours ago, shanesox said:

Typical of the nonsense spouted. There are countries that make up the EU who also need to trade with Uk as nation states for their own economy and employment. They need UK business more than UK needs them ! Problem is the EU hard core philes will dissuade these from doing free trade deals . After all it would make a mockery of the whole European Union bureaucratic project!

 

 

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Good, in-depth analysis of how WTO tariffs would work for both the UK and the EU:

 

http://www.civitas.org.uk/reports_articles/potential-post-brexit-tariff-costs-for-eu-uk-trade/

[sandyf]

3 hours ago, SheungWan said:

It will not make sense while negotiations are still on-going.

Quite, and probably why they talking about this 3 year transitional period after the UK actually leaves.

[Flustered]

4 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Good, in-depth analysis of how WTO tariffs would work for both the UK and the EU:

 

http://www.civitas.org.uk/reports_articles/potential-post-brexit-tariff-costs-for-eu-uk-trade/

Very interesting reading.

 

What a shame it will be wasted on the remainers who refuse to see past their noses and still want the Brussels ideal of a one size fits all Europe.

 

Another shame is that only time will tell that Brexit was the best thing to happen since England beat Germany in the world cup (long before most of the remainers were even born I dare say).

 

I also see that despite certain financial giants on the forum saying the pound was doomed to sink further, it has risen quiet well over the last few days since Article 50 was triggered.

[Orac]

No doubt there will be preparation for different scenarios but that is quite different from an established position. As negotiations progress (or not as the case may be), watch out for those on the hard Brexiteer wing who will progressively come to the fore with their shrill message to terminate negotiations for a quick break to the WTO as the solution they always wanted anyway. Stand by.

I don't think 'soft brexit' was ever a real option since it would have defeated one of the main economic objectives of unilateral free trade deals elsewhere in the world.

The 'hard brexit' option did appeal to me from an economic point of view as I have always been a strong believer in free trade, conservative party member for many years and Thatcher fan. The reason i decided hard brexit would not work was partly because I didn't think the UK population had the mettle to go through the tough transition needed to get to where we need to be as an independent nation, particularly given the short termism and opportunism of some political players and media. The emphasis on immigration is also an issue since flexible labour markets will be essential to a true, free market economic system - we are already starting to see key tories trying to roll back the promises on immigration.

Since the decision has been made, the sooner we get on with disentangling ourselves the better and the quicker we will be through the rough patch but I still do not think we will get there as the whole thing will get derailled through public discontent.

[shanesox]

Only those that fail to recognise the existence of failure would perceive it to be the desire of others.

No! Completely different. There are those who WANT European government. Success would destroy their fantasies!


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