May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[sandyf]

The rise in prices will "accelerate rapidly" during 2017 as the fall in sterling is passed on to consumers, according to the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37838087

[SaintLouisBlues]

2 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Some people also predicted that the pound would quickly rebound after Brexit.

The FTSE certainly did. The GBP wouldn't because interest rates were cut, and the GBP's been in a downtrend for some time now anyway

[SgtRock]

3 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Some people also predicted that the pound would quickly rebound after Brexit.

 

It might well do.

 

Time will tell, Brexit has not happened yet.

[sandyf]

7 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Some people also predicted that the pound would quickly rebound after Brexit.

We all know you meant after the vote but some are determined to take statements out of context.

[sandyf]

Interesting read.

 

Theresa May, Nissan and industrial non-strategy: A historical perspective
Read more at http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/theresa-may-nissan-industrial-non-strategy-historical-perspective/any-other-business/article/1413950#WmIG8ShoV7Lgy2WG.99

[ilostmypassword]

6 minutes ago, sandyf said:

We all know you meant after the vote but some are determined to take statements out of context.

Well, since I've criticized people for doing the same thing, there's an argument to be made that I deserved it.  That said, 

 

23 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

 

 

If no trade deal has been negotiated then WTO Rules apply, this will cost the EU more than it costs the UK. Figures being reported are £ 13 Billion for the EU and £ 5 Billion for the UK.

 

 

I googled your figures and couldn't find them anywhere. Source, please? I just them.

Edited November 2, 2016 by ilostmypassword

[SgtRock]

1 minute ago, sandyf said:

We all know you meant after the vote but some are determined to take statements out of context.

 

Out of context Sandy ? Really ?

 

'' After Brexit '' is a very clear statement.

 

Here is something that you should read:

 

Quote

After years of austerity, the utopian vision of a united Europe appears to be in tatters. On the 25th anniversary of the Maastricht treaty, Youssef El-Gingihy delves into the impact of an agreement that designed the architecture of the EU

 

Quote

We have been transported light years from this utopian vision. After several years of austerity, the eurozone crisis has escalated into a social catastrophe. The cost has been borne out in terms of jobs, wages, economic growth and blighted lives. Currently, there are almost 21 million unemployed people in the EU.

So where did it all go wrong?

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/maastricht-treaty-25-years-european-dream-trade-echr-neoliberal-a7388796.html

 

The EU is not just failing, it is falling apart at the seams.

 

The more the UK can disentangle from the EU, the better it will be for the UK.

[ilostmypassword]

26 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

No Sandy,

 

I, and many others are of the opinion that that the UK and the EU should actually grow up and stop acting like spoiled children.

 

Here is the fact of the matter.

 

A50 invoked and the UK leaves the EU 2 years later.

 

If no trade deal has been negotiated then WTO Rules apply, this will cost the EU more than it costs the UK. Figures being reported are £ 13 Billion for the EU and £ 5 Billion for the UK.

 

It is in neither the UK's or the EU's interest to let this happen, so the wisest and best course of action to be taken in that 2 year divorce period is to negotiate like adults and thrash out a Trade Deal that is beneficial for both the UK and the EU.

 

I will throw this in for good measure. The threats from A-Holes in the EU will continue on an almost daily basis right up to the day that A50 is triggered. The narrative will then do a complete 180.

Now that I found the source, even if true, that only applies to tariffs.  The loss of financial trading firms alone will more than outweigh any loss on tariffs. And I don't see what leverage the UK can exert for financial firm to gain passporting rights. It's not like the case of, say, German automobile companies  that could lose buyers. There's no downside for the EU to deny passporting rights to financial firms.

[ilostmypassword]

6 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Out of context Sandy ? Really ?

 

'' After Brexit '' is a very clear statement.

 

Here is something that you should read:

 

 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/maastricht-treaty-25-years-european-dream-trade-echr-neoliberal-a7388796.html

 

The EU is not just failing, it is falling apart at the seams.

 

The more the UK can disentangle from the EU, the better it will be for the UK.

The EU's economic problems stem from the Euro. Those countries that don't use it are doing much better.

[Grouse]

12 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Ah yes, conspiracy theories. Like the one created on this thread about the government secretly bribing Nissan.

 

So the government did not indemnify Nissan against increased costs due to Brexit?

 

As you know, many now think May wishes to remain in the single markets

[Grouse]

45 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservatives-tories-take-16-point-lead-over-labour-latest-poll-icm-a7390861.html

 

How can this possibly be ?

 

Destroys the demographic labels that have been leveled at those who voted out.

 

16 point is your font size?

 

I suspect the Conservative lead is due to the Corbyn effect rather than anything else

 

The inflationary effects of the collapse of Sterling have not filtered through to life's essentials yet.

 

I see no correlation between the demographics of the referendum and the demographic split between Labour and Conservative.

[Grouse]

31 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

The FTSE certainly did. The GBP wouldn't because interest rates were cut, and the GBP's been in a downtrend for some time now anyway

 

So you think the collapse in Sterling is primarily due to a 0.25% cut in interest? 

 

I am not going to explain the rise in FTSE1000 again

 

[SgtRock]

14 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

The EU's economic problems stem from the Euro. Those countries that don't use it are doing much better.

 

I know.

 

I have already stated in this thread and others, that the euro will cause the demise of the EU as we currently know it.

[SgtRock]

17 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Now that I found the source, even if true, that only applies to tariffs.  The loss of financial trading firms alone will more than outweigh any loss on tariffs. And I don't see what leverage the UK can exert for financial firm to gain passporting rights. It's not like the case of, say, German automobile companies  that could lose buyers. There's no downside for the EU to deny passporting rights to financial firms.

 

Passporting rights as they currently stand will disappear in 2018. I will have to find the source again.

 

It is called something along the lines of IIRT or similar.

 

In the meantime, it could well be part of this:

 

Quote

Those looking for when the next financial crisis might be should set a reminder for Jan. 1, 2018.

That's when a host of new rules are scheduled to come into force that are likely to further constrain lending ability and prompt banks to only advance money to the best borrowers, which could accelerate bankruptcies worldwide. As with any financial regulation, however, the effects will start to be felt sooner than the implementation date.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-03-28/the-next-perfect-banking-storm

[SgtRock]

23 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Now that I found the source, even if true, that only applies to tariffs.  The loss of financial trading firms alone will more than outweigh any loss on tariffs. And I don't see what leverage the UK can exert for financial firm to gain passporting rights. It's not like the case of, say, German automobile companies  that could lose buyers. There's no downside for the EU to deny passporting rights to financial firms.

 

Here it is here

 

Quote

Under articles 46 and 47 of the new incoming Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation (Mifir), many of the rights accorded to EU “passport” holders under the current regime can be extended to non-EU countries and their financial services groups.

The broader rule book governed by the new Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, or Mifid 2, comes into force, in January 2018. So, given that it would take a good two years for the UK to disentangle itself from the EU, the transition could be smooth.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/e8b14d60-3a36-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7

[Grouse]

Sterling

Dark mutterings that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney might not stay for the full eight-year term at Threadneedle Street put pressure on the Pound over the weekend. However, the Governor held a meeting with Prime Minister Theresa May yesterday and a spokesperson from 10 Downing Street said that Carney was ‘absolutely’ the right man for the job. Later in the day the Governor announced that he would stay on until 2019, 12 months longer than initially planned but less than the maximum stint of eight years. The news bumped Sterling higher during the afternoon.

The prospect of Carney leaving his post early was concerning for holders of the Pound a) because the Canadian central banker is seen as an elite policymaker, having steered the North American nation through the financial crisis relatively unscathed, because markets prefer stability to uncertainty and c) because Carney has faced political scrutiny in recent weeks for his outspoken views on the potential consequences of ‘Brexit’, which means that if he were to leave the BoE’s independence would be thrown into doubt. 

Sterling could have suffered serious losses if markets believed that The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street had been compromised by political interference, so its no surprise that the UK currency rallied following the announcement from the PM’s office.

 

Cable still holding at 1.22 floor - good

[SgtRock]

If you want an example of scaremongering headline articles, look no further than the Pro-EU Guardian

 

Quote

Brexit vote will lead to cut in disposable incomes in 2017, says thinktank

 

How about this:

 

Quote

The thinktank warned that the 0.5% reversal in real household disposable incomes in 2017 would hurt the wider economy, pushing down GDP growth to 1.4% from the 2% the UK is expected to enjoy this year.

 

A whole 0.5%, catastrophic to say the least.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/02/brexit-vote-disposable-incomes-gdp-niesr

 

[SgtRock]

A think-tank that I actually agree with

 

Quote

Abolish 20 taxes and set 15% flat rate of income tax in UK, says report

 

Quote

The IEA said a new, slimmed-down tax system should include:

• A flat income tax rate at 15%, with a personal allowance of about £10,000. Profits distributed to shareholders taxed at 15%.
• VAT at 12.5% with most of the current exemptions removed.
• A housing consumption tax set at 12.5%.
• A location land value tax.
• A halving of fuel duty.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/nov/02/institute-for-economic-affairs-report-abolish-20-taxes-income-tax-15-per-cent

 

Couldn't agree more. The UK tax system is a joke, time to simplify it and get the tax system working for everyone, not just the few who can afford fancy tax experts to save them money and deny the UK revenues to make the UK great for everyone.

[Orac]

A think-tank that I actually agree with

 

Abolish 20 taxes and set 15% flat rate of income tax in UK, says report

 

The IEA said a new, slimmed-down tax system should include:

• A flat income tax rate at 15%, with a personal allowance of about £10,000. Profits distributed to shareholders taxed at 15%.
• VAT at 12.5% with most of the current exemptions removed.
• A housing consumption tax set at 12.5%.
• A location land value tax.
• A halving of fuel duty.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/nov/02/institute-for-economic-affairs-report-abolish-20-taxes-income-tax-15-per-cent

 

Couldn't agree more. The UK tax system is a joke, time to simplify it and get the tax system working for everyone, not just the few who can afford fancy tax experts to save them money and deny the UK revenues to make the UK great for everyone.

--- end quote ---

It would make a lot of sense. Unfortunately UK govt are going to be tied up with other things for the foreseeable future.

[SaintLouisBlues]

59 minutes ago, Grouse said:

So you think the collapse in Sterling is primarily due to a 0.25% cut in interest?

Not sure which part of the statement "the GBP's been in a downtrend for some time now" you don't understand. As for the "FTSE1000" do enlighten us all. I don't think I've heard of that particular index and it doesn't show up readily in a Google search

[cumgranosalum]

1 hour ago, SgtRock said:

 

It might well do.

 

Time will tell, Brexit has not happened yet.

In other words you admit that it is poo pie at present and think that somehow it will get better???

 

No matter what you add to a poo pie - even prime steak - it will still be poo pie.

[SgtRock]

Bloomberg today

 

Quote

Most U.K. bankers believe London will remain Europe’s pre-eminent financial center after Brexit, according to consulting firm Synechron Inc.

About 72 percent agreed that the City of London would retain its role as the main hub for finance in the European Union for at least five years, Synechron said, citing a survey of 80 financial-services executives working in capital markets in the district. While 78 percent said Brexit will have a negative impact on U.K. financial markets, 82 percent said the EU would also be hurt.

 

Quote

Just over half of the executives surveyed thought the U.K. was in a strong position to negotiate a bespoke trading agreement with the EU.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/u-k-bankers-confident-city-will-remain-finance-hub-after-brexit

[SgtRock]

36 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/nov/02/institute-for-economic-affairs-report-abolish-20-taxes-income-tax-15-per-cent

 

Couldn't agree more. The UK tax system is a joke, time to simplify it and get the tax system working for everyone, not just the few who can afford fancy tax experts to save them money and deny the UK revenues to make the UK great for everyone.

--- end quote ---

It would make a lot of sense. Unfortunately UK govt are going to be tied up with other things for the foreseeable future.

 

It could also be argued that it will be lawyers and a small collection of a Brexit team that will be tied up for the foreseeable future.

 

Brexit will not, and should not impede the Government from doing its job, dealing with the UK.

 

There are many things that are wrong in  the UK that can be addressed in tandem with exiting the EU.

[chiang mai]

28 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Not sure which part of the statement "the GBP's been in a downtrend for some time now" you don't understand. As for the "FTSE1000" do enlighten us all. I don't think I've heard of that particular index and it doesn't show up readily in a Google search

 

How difficult can it be to recognize and accept a clear  typo when you see it rather than try and make a mountain of an argument out of it!

 

And s far as downtrend goes: GBP was clearly down from September 2015 until the referendum but I suspect much of that was positioning in advance of the vote, otherwise there's no downtrend to be seen unless you go back to 1970's.

[SaintLouisBlues]

7 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

And s far as downtrend goes: GBP was clearly down from September 2015 until the referendum but I suspect much of that was positioning in advance of the vote, otherwise there's no downtrend to be seen unless you go back to 1970's.

So what you're saying is that the market (for the GBP) had factored Brexit in but the FTSE hadn't. Interesting

[SgtRock]

3 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

And s far as downtrend goes: GBP was clearly down from September 2015 until the referendum but I suspect much of that was positioning in advance of the vote, otherwise there's no downtrend to be seen unless you go back to 1970's.

 

Really ?

 

 

The '70's ?

 

What happened in '85 ?

 

£ - $ has been on a pretty much downward trend from 2007

 

 

[Grouse]

58 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Not sure which part of the statement "the GBP's been in a downtrend for some time now" you don't understand. As for the "FTSE1000" do enlighten us all. I don't think I've heard of that particular index and it doesn't show up readily in a Google search

 

Yes, sorry for typo FTSE100

 

As for downtrend, over what period? 100 years? 10 years? 1 year?

 

The collapse in Sterling indicated initial response to referendum followed by response to Hard Brexit views stated by May

 

[SaintLouisBlues]

1 minute ago, Grouse said:

As for downtrend, over what period? 100 years? 10 years? 1 year?

You'll doubtless recall Keynes' comment, widely quoted (usually without attribution or context), "in the long run we are all dead". Anyone who is a follower of quantum mechanics (Heisenberg's uncertainty principle) and chaos theory must understand that a year is about as far out as any reasonable person (ie. not a politician making promises, or a poster on ThaiVisa) should be looking

 

[Grouse]

5 minutes ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

You'll doubtless recall Keynes' comment, widely quoted (usually without attribution or context), "in the long run we are all dead". Anyone who is a follower of quantum mechanics (Heisenberg's uncertainty principle) and chaos theory must understand that a year is about as far out as any reasonable person (ie. not a politician making promises, or a poster on ThaiVisa) should be looking

 

 

https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2014/02/long-decline-great-british-pound.html

 

Here is a simple overview of the history

 

If you want to discuss quantum mechanics, go ahead. I am a semiconductor physicist by training. 

 

"If you think you understand quantum theory.....you don't understand quantum theory" Feynman.

 

But, back to reality. We are discussing historical trends? I would not predict the future except to predict likely effects of certain actions

 

So, the attached shows the multiple ups and downs over a long historical period and gives explanations.

 

The recent precipitous 20% drop will be attributed to what? 0.25% interest rate cut? Or, shot in the foot??

[chiang mai]

42 minutes ago, SgtRock said:

 

Really ?

 

 

The '70's ?

 

What happened in '85 ?

 

£ - $ has been on a pretty much downward trend from 2007

 

 

 

You may think that a forex "trend" spans whatever timescale you want it to, the forex market doesn't! Your rather meaningless graph shows the pair to be broadly flat since 1990, not that means much either.