TNSC sees 2016 exports flatten to 0.8% down

  

BANGKOK, 2nd November 2016 (NNT) - Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) now expects total exports this year to be down as much as 0.8% but the outlook is still better than the 2% decline it previously projected. An improvement is expected in the final quarter this year. 

TNSC president Nopphorn Thepsitha said today that despite a recent rise in shipments, weak global demand and low commodity prices would likely continue to crimp the volume of exports. The TNSC estimates that the value of exports for 2016 will be 212.6 billion US dollars, boosted by a two-month increase in August and September. 

Exports in September rose 3.43% year-on-year with a value of 19.46 billion US dollars, while in the first nine months of the year exports were worth 160.468 billion US dollars, down 0.65% on the same period in 2015. 

He said negative factors that would affect exports were the cut in projected growth of global trade from 2.7% to 2.3%, low global prices for commodities, uncertainly over whether the US Federal Reserve will adjust the interest rate, and the appreciation of the Thai baht. 

Other risk factors include terrorism in Europe and the Middle East and the outcome of the US presidential election, which would impact the economy in early 2017, particularly the prospect of more trade barriers being applied.

 

-- nnt 2016-11-02

...and next week..what would the figures be then...

So, the P.Ms optimism last week about exports was based on September's results alone OR on the fact that the 0.8% dowturn year on year was better that the projected 2% shortfall?  Talk about clutching at straws!

In 2015 TNCS and the government were Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum when predicting export growth. Throughout 2016 TNSC has been very pragmatic to recognize contraction in export growth predictions while the government has been continued overexagerating or hyping export growth.

It seems now TNSC no longer can blindly carry the government's propoganda for economic recovery.  Even DPM Somkid is fairly reserved on favorable opredictions.