this is what is also behind the facade of the Pattaya condominium market?

[moonseeker]

On 11/17/2016 at 8:04 AM, KittenKong said:

 

You still dont say where, and what do you mean by "very high" ceilings? 3m, 5m, more? And are you at all interested in views, floor levels, facilities in the building, common fees?

 

The large meeting rooms that you mention would normally be common areas without their own chanote and so by definition not for residential use or for individual sale.

 

THX. KK.  Yeah, love those high ceilings - 3.50 to 4m - is fine.  I am aware of the ownership issues. I have been here for almost 20 active years and bought, remodeled etc. etc. many smaller and bigger units. Also fully aware of condo-act, laws & fees. Probably been one of the first who had the Condo-Act translated in E and presented at the A.G.M. in pone of the first Farang-run buildings for every owner to look at and use, man, many years back.

With all this big-discount talk, I was testing the waters for such a great deal. I am only buying into places I know in detail and can at least

evaluate some of the risks involved. So far I have not come across that super-deal and a few smaller units I bought the last 12 months were all pretty much at an all-time high. Certainly no drop in price whatsoever. But as I said, the main factor is location, reputation plus a few other points, which I don't need to tell you or the TV-members, who are mostly well informed.  Have a nice Sunday & THX. again.  MS>

[KittenKong]

4 minutes ago, moonseeker said:

love those high ceilings - 3.50 to 4m - is fine.

 

Perhaps a duplex/mezzanine style place? There are some in Wong Amat, and they are usually large units. I doubt the price would be right though. I think that Metro has some ground-floor duplexes also, and they would be in your budget.

 

Personally I hate high ceilings: no matter how many you find there always seems to be one more spider's web up there. And duplexes pose possible problems with dodgy knees. When I bought my unit I was careful to pick one with no stairs or steps at all between me and nearby small shops and restaurants.

[moonseeker]

Just now, KittenKong said:

 

Perhaps a duplex/mezzanine style place? There are some in Wong Amat, and they are usually large units. I doubt the price would be right though. I think that Metro has some ground-floor duplexes also, and they would be in your budget.

 

Personally I hate high ceilings: no matter how many you find there always seems to be one more spider's web up there. And duplexes pose possible problems with dodgy knees. When I bought my unit I was careful to pick one with no stairs or steps at all between me and nearby small shops and restaurants.

 

Thank you KK. Yes, SB etc. have several very large shells of meeting, storage  areas etc. 200-400sqm and at some point I was

very close to buy a larger one to transform parts into studios and the other half into my condo. Owned by a German I believe and price 30%? below what he asked  12 years ago.These units have been in the market for up to 15 years and I backed out, after learning that restriction for use are in place and the committee is not very cooperative, also I did not like Wongamat much anymore, has changed so much the last 8 years. What a mess in some areas.

I am living in a very large place in perfect location right now, so finding something better will not be easy. Drawback are very low ceilings of about 2.40 m Never got used to it. I wanna realize my last project and built a modern, clean industrial open plan place, with great sound & media etc. etc. Bit of a tech freak :-) Keeps me busy. So my price idea is for a shell or trashed unit. Then I will invest another 20K /sqm to make it MY place. If I can't find it here, I will eventually leave.....But where-to????  Ain't easy......Thank you for writing.  MS>

[JSixpack]

Just now, Briggsy said:

I am sorry. I cannot follow your point.

 

Not sure if you mean that, but I was merely joking that sandgroper2 got his money back and 20% but he also got housing for the duration. You had shares in the unit trust but that wasn't housing, leaving you homeless on the streets to cart your documents, clothes, and toothbrush carted about in a shopping trolley. :) I glanced at taxes in the UK and a benefit of home ownership--fixing up a place to one's liking. Before we all froth at the mouth, I've never recommended an average person buy a condo here purely as an investment--or buy at all, if it's any sort of financial strain. And I'd note the volatility of the share market, which can be a good thing.

[Briggsy]

9 hours ago, JSixpack said:

 

Not sure if you mean that, but I was merely joking that sandgroper2 got his money back and 20% but he also got housing for the duration. You had shares in the unit trust but that wasn't housing, leaving you homeless on the streets to cart your documents, clothes, and toothbrush carted about in a shopping trolley. :) I glanced at taxes in the UK and a benefit of home ownership--fixing up a place to one's liking. Before we all froth at the mouth, I've never recommended an average person buy a condo here purely as an investment--or buy at all, if it's any sort of financial strain. And I'd note the volatility of the share market, which can be a good thing.

Ah I see.

 

I think the comparable amounts would be

Me :

Net Gain in value in passive investments - Rent paid

 

Sandgroper2 :

Net Gain on sale of condo - Building charges for 12 years - Furnishing and decorating costs - Repairs

 

You would need to convert these figures to a "Net Present Value" since the Sandgroper2 method is front loaded in terms of costs which disadvantages him further.

 

It would be interesting to see actual figures.

[JB300]

 
Perhaps a duplex/mezzanine style place? There are some in Wong Amat, and they are usually large units. I doubt the price would be right though. I think that Metro has some ground-floor duplexes also, and they would be in your budget.
 
Personally I hate high ceilings: no matter how many you find there always seems to be one more spider's web up there. And duplexes pose possible problems with dodgy knees. When I bought my unit I was careful to pick one with no stairs or steps at all between me and nearby small shops and restaurants.

Get a couple of cats KK, guaranteed no more cobwebs no matter how high the ceilings [emoji4]

[i claudius]

The wife sells condo's ,to be blunt there are dozens of blocks that are a waste of space and i wouldn't buy one at half the price , but, there are blocks that are gold , they sell and rent  straight away and are well run , its just a matter of knowing which ones .

Those who have studied the market know and buy and even if the market crashes ,these blocks will still be worth owning ,because they rent easily ,and if they are your home , well , then no problem .

[pegman]

24 minutes ago, i claudius said:

The wife sells condo's ,to be blunt there are dozens of blocks that are a waste of space and i wouldn't buy one at half the price , but, there are blocks that are gold , they sell and rent  straight away and are well run , its just a matter of knowing which ones .

Those who have studied the market know and buy and even if the market crashes ,these blocks will still be worth owning ,because they rent easily ,and if they are your home , well , then no problem .

How about a project like View Talay  5? It seems like those 2 building are well maintained and at a great location but still there are many shells still unsold. 

[sandgroper2]

On ‎11‎/‎18‎/‎2016 at 9:44 PM, SaintLouisBlues said:

And the total rate of inflation in Thailand over those 12 years was only 20% too?

Let me spell it out for you.Invested 700K for 12 years, got 1000000K return on my investment and the return of my principal.

[sandgroper2]

On ‎11‎/‎18‎/‎2016 at 9:57 PM, Briggsy said:

Yes, I was thinking the same thing too.

 

My passive, no need to manage, no condo fees, no furniture, unit trust investments in the UK more than doubled over the last 12 years. If I measured from the low point after 2008, they are up even more.

Tax?

[sandgroper2]

21 hours ago, Briggsy said:

Ah I see.

 

I think the comparable amounts would be

Me :

Net Gain in value in passive investments - Rent paid

 

Sandgroper2 :

Net Gain on sale of condo - Building charges for 12 years - Furnishing and decorating costs - Repairs

 

You would need to convert these figures to a "Net Present Value" since the Sandgroper2 method is front loaded in terms of costs which disadvantages him further.

 

It would be interesting to see actual figures.

Front loading, irrelevant. Just concentrate on the 8k a month. P.S. For personal occupation, cant be beat, for rental, forget it.

[Briggsy]

13 minutes ago, sandgroper2 said:

Tax?

ISA

[sandgroper2]

16 hours ago, Briggsy said:

ISA

Is a what?

[Briggsy]

5 minutes ago, sandgroper2 said:

Front loading, irrelevant. Just concentrate on the 8k a month. P.S. For personal occupation, cant be beat, for rental, forget it.

 

 

It's a good job you are not a management accountant. Investing 700,000 Baht at year 0 is markedly worse than investing 700,000 Baht at Year 12. It certainly is not irrelevant. In the latter case, the user has the use of 700,000 Baht for 12 years more!

 

I am glad that you are satisfied. However, the profit you refer to needs to be considered in the context of inflation and the value of capital in order to draw an accurate comparison with other forms of investment. Anyway the amounts you are talking about are relatively small.

[Briggsy]

6 minutes ago, sandgroper2 said:

Is a what?

What nationality are you?

[sandgroper2]

17 hours ago, Briggsy said:

 

 

It's a good job you are not a management accountant. Investing 700,000 Baht at year 0 is markedly worse than investing 700,000 Baht at Year 12. It certainly is not irrelevant. In the latter case, the user has the use of 700,000 Baht for 12 years more!

 

I am glad that you are satisfied. However, the profit you refer to needs to be considered in the context of inflation and the value of capital in order to draw an accurate comparison with other forms of investment. Anyway the amounts you are talking about are relatively small.

Bank interest 1.5%.  I made, saved, over 1 million . Iveforgotten the compound interest equation, but, im in front  compared to bank, gold, silver, beerbar. BHP Billaton.  (about 15% flat PA). The user who had the use of my 700K got zero return on it. Play with figures anyway you want, renting is dead money. Over and out.

Edited November 20, 2016 by sandgroper2
add

[Asiantravel]

3 hours ago, i claudius said:

The wife sells condo's ,to be blunt there are dozens of blocks that are a waste of space and i wouldn't buy one at half the price , but, there are blocks that are gold , they sell and rent  straight away and are well run , its just a matter of knowing which ones .

Those who have studied the market know and buy and even if the market crashes ,these blocks will still be worth owning ,because they rent easily ,and if they are your home , well , then no problem .

 

i dont think there will be a market crash in Pattaya. I think values will erode slowly over a very long time like 10 or 20 years or even longer depending on demographics. 

Under such circustances i think its more attractive to have the flexibility of renting.

Edited November 20, 2016 by Asiantravel

[Jingthing]

There won't be a crash because there was never a bubble price rise here. For a crash to happen you need a bubble to crash from.

Well at least since the Thai financial crisis 1998 no bubble rise here. Not sure about before that but I don't think it matters in this context.

Next ...

[KittenKong]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

There won't be a crash because there was never a bubble price rise here. For a crash to happen you need a bubble to crash from.

Well at least since the Thai financial crisis 1998 no bubble rise here. Not sure about before that but I don't think it matters in this context.

 

You cant crash on a plateau? I think you can, if you get to the edge.

 

I base my view of prices here on what I can get in other popular tourist destinations. Look at Spain where much better quality accommodation can be bought more cheaply than here, and that's in a country where EU nationals will get proper health care at low cost and also have right of abode and full equality with locals in every respect. None of which applies here. Florida is an even more dramatic comparison, though admittedly properties in Florida suffer from some rather odd zoning and immigration rules that dont exactly encourage foreign ownership.

[Jingthing]

I think you're tripping.

I live in a condo I bought for 3 million over 10 years ago.

If I sell it soon, I can expect to get a range of 2.5 to 3.5 million. 

A crash would mean I'd have to give it away for 1 million.

I don't see that happening. 

If you do, fine, make offers like that and watch people laugh at you. 

[KittenKong]

58 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I live in a condo I bought for 3 million over 10 years ago.

If I sell it soon, I can expect to get a range of 2.5 to 3.5 million. 

A crash would mean I'd have to give it away for 1 million.

I don't see that happening. 

 

And I can expect to eat pizza at every meal and still lose weight. Why dont you try selling your condo and let us know how much you actually get?  As for so-called 3 million Baht condos selling for a half of the asking price or less, I've seen it happen. And there are still units for sale today in the same building at the same full asking price they were at 3 years ago.

 

All property I have owned in other countries has increased in value by at least 50% every ten years, sometimes more. I dont see that happening here. And anything that is still worth today what it was worth 10 years ago has in fact decreased substantially in value simply due to inflation.

 

Thai property looks like a lousy investment to me and prices generally seem way too high for the poor quality of what you get. That said, most of the Caribbean is much more expensive for equally poor quality.

 

[Anthony5]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

There won't be a crash because there was never a bubble price rise here. For a crash to happen you need a bubble to crash from.

Well at least since the Thai financial crisis 1998 no bubble rise here. Not sure about before that but I don't think it matters in this context.

Next ...

 

 

 

There was no bubble price in 1998, because a condo first line on Jomtien beach road would sell 10 - 12K/sqm.

 

How much they are priced today?

[Jingthing]

43 minutes ago, KittenKong said:

 

And I can expect to eat pizza at every meal and still lose weight. Why dont you try selling your condo and let us know how much you actually get?  As for so-called 3 million Baht condos selling for a half of the asking price or less, I've seen it happen. And there are still units for sale today in the same building at the same full asking price they were at 3 years ago.

 

All property I have owned in other countries has increased in value by at least 50% every ten years, sometimes more. I dont see that happening here. And anything that is still worth today what it was worth 10 years ago has in fact decreased substantially in value simply due to inflation.

 

Thai property looks like a lousy investment to me and prices generally seem way too high for the poor quality of what you get. That said, most of the Caribbean is much more expensive for equally poor quality.

 

I agree it's a lousy "investment" but that's not the same thing as a CRASH. I've noticed this over the years. People talking up a CRASH and you've got to wonder about their personal motivations for this. Wishful thinking perhaps. 

 

It's like people whining that Indian food is a rip off in town. Yeah, as a condo buyer or Indian food restaurant customer, you'd wish you could get that stuff almost free. So it goes.

Edited November 20, 2016 by Jingthing

[OMGImInPattaya]

On 11/16/2016 at 8:54 PM, Asiantravel said:

 

 

 I  disagree with you because how does the average buyer go about determining whether a property is overpriced or not? How much due diligence and research does the average buyer carry out before agreeing terms ? When you say “if people are willing to pay certain prices, there's the value “ - would they still have agreed to pay a certain price if they really knew the seriousness of the oversupply in Pattaya? where are the buyers for15 to 20,000 vacant condominiums going to come from and particularly in a deflationary economic global environment?

In USA, Australia and the UK its common to get an independent appraiser or valuer to give you at least some background advice regarding market values before you buy because often there is some kind of loan involved and usually the loan itself relies on whether the valuer or appraiser gives the green light. Nobody does that kind of thing here and at best is a buyer might ask around a few brokers or agents. How many agents or brokers in Pattaya would even be aware of  15 to 20,000 vacant units and the implication on future values and even if they were aware do you honestly think they would volunteer such information? I mean Pattaya agents are hardly going to give you the true state of the market if it is likely to put you off purchasing a property.

So you are dealing with fairly uninformed buyers who not surprisingly will pay higher prices than informed buyers would.

There are established metrics based on rents for what any particular piece of property is worth.

[Asiantravel]

1 hour ago, OMGImInPattaya said:

There are established metrics based on rents for what any particular piece of property is worth.

 

 

And so do you think it’s beyond the realm of possibility for such “ established metrics “ to get out of alignment?

 

Australia is a  more sophisticated market regarding access to reliable sales data  and yet this article I read just this morning highlights how any relationship between capital values and rental values can soon become very noticeably divergent.

 

Quote

real estate prices have risen by over 700% since 1987, yet rents have risen  just under 300% over the same period. This chart clearly shows that the majority of the price growth was not supported by a fundamental increase in rents to support the higher prices

 

http://www.crushthemarket.com/

[OMGImInPattaya]

Just now, Asiantravel said:

 

 

And so do you think it’s beyond the realm of possibility for such “ established metrics “ to get out of alignment?

 

Australia is a  more sophisticated market regarding access to reliable sales data  and yet this article I read just this morning highlights how any relationship between capital values and rental values can soon become very noticeably divergent.

 

 

http://www.crushthemarket.com/

If you mean people can overpay...sure...but doesn't mean the metrics are wrong. Any asset is only worth the stream of income it produces during its useful lifetime. That's the basic rule...with slight modifications depending on asset class.

[Asiantravel]

3 minutes ago, OMGImInPattaya said:

If you mean people can overpay...sure...but doesn't mean the metrics are wrong. Any asset is only worth the stream of income it produces during its useful lifetime. That's the basic rule...with slight modifications depending on asset class.

 

 

but that's all academic anyway if you can't identify where the potential buyers of 17,000 vacant units are likely to come from

[OMGImInPattaya]

2 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

 

 

but that's all academic anyway if you can't identify where the potential buyers of 17,000 vacant units are likely to come from

If no buyers and hence cash flow then pretty much worth nothing...but on paper the rental calculations.

Edited November 25, 2016 by OMGImInPattaya

[LongTimeLurker]

" All property I have owned in other countries has increased in value by at least 50% every ten years, sometimes more. I dont see that happening here. And anything that is still worth today what it was worth 10 years ago has in fact decreased substantially in value simply due to inflation"

 

But you also have to take into account exchange rates. What was the Baht value 10 years ago compared to now? 10 years ago to the day GBP to Baht was 70, it's been as high as 83, today it's 44.

 

Edited November 25, 2016 by LongTimeLurker

[LongTimeLurker]

On 11/20/2016 at 1:52 PM, Asiantravel said:

 

i dont think there will be a market crash in Pattaya. I think values will erode slowly over a very long time like 10 or 20 years or even longer depending on demographics. 

Under such circustances i think its more attractive to have the flexibility of renting.

 

IF the long rumoured casino comes to town I'd expect the values to increase over 10 to 20 years.