Baht depreciation expected

[Langsuan Man]

13 hours ago, Winkburn said:

In the Doldrums?? record high stock prices and falling unemployment or am I missing something??

Yes,  the Republican mantra that we need a tax cut for the rich to get the economy humming trickling down 

[MyFriend You]

On 12/19/2017 at 9:51 AM, lannarebirth said:

We have liftoff!

I predict 34.5 on 31 Dec 2017...........$$ has been creeping up on the baht all week, if it keep this trend up for another 10 days it wil happen..............

[Banana7]

11 hours ago, TunnelRat69 said:

I predict 34.5 on 31 Dec 2017...........$$ has been creeping up on the baht all week, if it keep this trend up for another 10 days it wil happen..............

27 DEC 2017 will be the highest between now and year-end. Jan. 2018 will be declining below the current level.

 

[swissie]

I predict that predictions are extremely hard to predict, especially if they involve the future.

- But I say it again: Longer term, a currencies value is only measured by the economic-growth of a particular country (all other factors affecting a currency have been excluded from the equasions by the community of "financial-analysts", these days).
In the end: Rightly so!
Except for some temporary upward-spikes aginst "hard-currencies", I am afraid, folks waiting for a meaningful and lasting "depreciation of the baht" will have to wait for a very, very long time, likely to surpass the life-expectancy of most elderly Farangs residing in Thailand.
-Adverse currency exchange-rates have made it no more possible for some "Northern-Europeans" to spend the Autumn of their live in southern Spain.
Let's hope that "currency-history" dosn't repeat itself, brutally not accommodating the plans of "men and mice".
Cheers.   

[joeyg]

4 hours ago, swissie said:

I predict that predictions are extremely hard to predict, especially if they involve the future.

- But I say it again: Longer term, a currencies value is only measured by the economic-growth of a particular country (all other factors affecting a currency have been excluded from the equasions by the community of "financial-analysts", these days).
In the end: Rightly so!
Except for some temporary upward-spikes aginst "hard-currencies", I am afraid, folks waiting for a meaningful and lasting "depreciation of the baht" will have to wait for a very, very long time, likely to surpass the life-expectancy of most elderly Farangs residing in Thailand.
-Adverse currency exchange-rates have made it no more possible for some "Northern-Europeans" to spend the Autumn of their live in southern Spain.
Let's hope that "currency-history" dosn't repeat itself, brutally not accommodating the plans of "men and mice".
Cheers.   

That clears it up I get all my financial planning advice on TV.  Medical too...

[joeyg]

20 hours ago, TunnelRat69 said:

I predict 34.5 on 31 Dec 2017...........$$ has been creeping up on the baht all week, if it keep this trend up for another 10 days it wil happen..............

I've told all my friends about this!!!

[Muzarella]

On 11/26/2016 at 10:27 AM, fvw53 said:

Is somebody really able to predict the economy : even Fed Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan had no clue of the crash until the day it happened in 2008.

A good economy is where the people believe it is good

A bad economy is where the people believe it is bad

The investors are like a bunch of small dogs : if one dog pees against a tree...all the dogs rush to this tree...until one starts to bark and panic hits

Wrong. Alan Greenspan was part of the conspiracy with bankers and lenders to get richier. I had friends in the US financial market in 2005 and at that time the inminent financial crisis was the talk on every meeting and real estate seminar..... but.... also everyone on the field was making money, legally and illegally, with the market des-regulation inciated by Bill Clinton and expanded by George Bush. President Obama regulated the market to control the crisis...but now Trump desregulated the market again, and more...placed on his cabinet all main people that created the crisis in 2008       

 Another financial crisis is on the way.... More people will get richier...and more people will get poor. Wait to see..

[Lacessit]

On 11/26/2016 at 1:55 PM, TGIR said:

I'm confused about this situation.  Keeping interest rates low takes away what has always been a conservative investment option.  Bonds and other interest bearing choices were always a portion of my portfolio both in business and personally.  Essentially, governments across the world have done away with the ability to put funds in a safe place for current needs, or as a safe haven for investors who don't want all their money tied up in property or subject to the whims of the stock market.

 

How does eliminating interest rate arbitrage help the economy?  It seems to me that it would depress economies in the long term, but at my age (72)  I don't have enough brain cells or education to see a way out of this conundrum.  

 

Some discussion technically of how interest fits into the big picture would be appreciated.

 

 

There are official interest rates, and there are real interest rates. Official low interest rates are designed to stimulate economies.

Real interest rates are what one sees on credit cards, business loans, personal loans, car and home loans. Some of these are the exclusive preserve of the banks. Others are funded by the growing industry of peer-to-peer lending. Some come from loans by or for governments to fund infrastructure projects.

Real interest rates are priced according to the level of risk attached to the loan. Official interest rates are arbitrarily priced by reserve banks around the world, with the USA as the main trendsetter as the world reserve currency. That position is currently under attack by the Chinese.

Sharemarkets boom when interest rates are low, and bust when interest rates are high, OR a crisis in confidence occurs, as witness the 2008 GFC.

[David Walden]

It seem that of all the experts in financial matters and all the other people who have posted on this site  "Baht depreciation expected"  have absolutely  no idea what the new rate will be in relation to the US dollar...I think there is about 100+ post none of you have any idea what so ever...5555    It might go up?

[KhunMhee]

Still waiting for the depreciation.

[oldhippy]

2 hours ago, KhunMhee said:

Still waiting for the depreciation.

Be patient!

I personally guarantee that there will be a depreciation.

Either of the baht, the dollar or the euro.

 

 

[Banana7]

8 hours ago, oldhippy said:

Be patient!

I personally guarantee that there will be a depreciation.

Either of the baht, the dollar or the euro.

 

 

What's the basis for your guarantee? BOT foreign currency and gold reserves are at an all time high. See

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=94&language=eng

Forecast for Jan. 2018 is further depreciation of USD to THB.

 

Lots of foreigners coming to Thailand with lots of foreign currency and spending it, more than ever. Thailand has approved lots of new infrastructure projects, especially transportation, which will keep the economy and GDP rolling fast. Unemployment remains non-existent, lots cheap foreign labour continues to be imported.

 

Thai currency is viewed as a regional currency by its neighbours, so it is in high demand. Lao, Myanmar and Cambodian currency is next to worthless, and these countries have nothing of interest to major currency countries - no innovation, no manufacturing, no significant high demand natural resources. Nobody wants to invest in these neighbouring countries because of the governments. 

 

These neighbouring countries import lots of products from Thailand, and convert their foreign currencies, which mostly come from tourists, into THB. We saw this when Laos currency traders brought all their USD (millions$) into Thailand, and bought THB - news story in The Nation. Thais don't want their neighbour's currency because there is nothing in those countries that Thailand needs. But Thais will take USD, GBP, etc. because those currencies can be used to acquire products that are needed to grow Thai companies and economy.

 

I can see THB returning to its former strength, prior to the Asian financial crisis, around 25 THB = USD.

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Banana7

[Banana7]

Here are all the critical economic indicators for Thailand:

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/indicators

 

Another critical factor in determining the currency trading rates is the external financing, money owed to other countries and the debt currency, see here:

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/external-debt

 

As many of you know, external DEBT can cause any country's currency to dive. It was the major cause of the 1997-98 Thailand financial crisis, during which THB went from 25THB=1USD to 50THB=1USD. 

 

Let's hear your forecasts based on the economic data.

Edited December 31, 2017 by Banana7

[simoh1490]

2 hours ago, Banana7 said:

What's the basis for your guarantee? BOT foreign currency and gold reserves are at an all time high. See

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=94&language=eng

Forecast for Jan. 2018 is further depreciation of USD to THB.

 

Lots of foreigners coming to Thailand with lots of foreign currency and spending it, more than ever. Thailand has approved lots of new infrastructure projects, especially transportation, which will keep the economy and GDP rolling fast. Unemployment remains non-existent, lots cheap foreign labour continues to be imported.

 

Thai currency is viewed as a regional currency by its neighbours, so it is in high demand. Lao, Myanmar and Cambodian currency is next to worthless, and these countries have nothing of interest to major currency countries - no innovation, no manufacturing, no significant high demand natural resources. Nobody wants to invest in these neighbouring countries because of the governments. 

 

These neighbouring countries import lots of products from Thailand, and convert their foreign currencies, which mostly come from tourists, into THB. We saw this when Laos currency traders brought all their USD (millions$) into Thailand, and bought THB - news story in The Nation. Thais don't want their neighbour's currency because there is nothing in those countries that Thailand needs. But Thais will take USD, GBP, etc. because those currencies can be used to acquire products that are needed to grow Thai companies and economy.

 

I can see THB returning to its former strength, prior to the Asian financial crisis, around 25 THB = USD.

 

 

 

I agree and always have in the 16 years I've been arguing the strength of THB, but I can't see USD/THB going to the levels you describe in under ten years, the impact on exports would be far too dramatic.

[David Walden]

11 hours ago, oldhippy said:

You are a very observant reader David.

You even read - unlike some others - my third line.

 

 

Yes Old Hippy,  I know you are smart , intelligent and know how how to put a dollar on every horse in a 3 horse race... Surely you will win and you always be able to say you backed a winner, just like all those investment advisers around the world who have little interest or information in successful investment advice as long as they get their commission.  Sometimes they make it all up.(often I think)...I know you are very smart, intelligent, resourceful and modest man because your views are very much the same as mine...5555

 

Stories abound from investment advisers who tell of their great successes never to mention all the useless advice given out as well "sorry you blew it".

 

[JemJem]

Gees; the baht still keeps on strengthening against the US dollar. Did many people expect this I wonder, say, a few months ago ? Possibly not.

 

I am no expert in this kind of thing, but I won't be surprised if the dollar-baht rate gets to be very close to 31.00 for a $100 bill (it is at 31.85 as of now, at Bangkok Bank), by the time the high tourist season ends.

Edited January 4, 2018 by JemJem

[Huayrat]

The Baht is an absolutely con Rip off job that's controlled and not let to freely go up or down.. people who say it's linked to the Dollar are wrong.. Take this week.. The Dollar opened up at 1.35.1.. The Baht opened at 43.07.. The Dollar rise all the way Up to 1.36 and the baht hit 43.16.. The Baht did not move..

Now the Dollar is back at the level it was at opening on the 2nd January and the Baht drops massively to 43.6.. That is a 1% loss.. So how come when the pound strenghthens the baht doesn't move but when the pound against the Dollar weakens the baht collapses..

 

It is one big rip off and is being controlled

[SheungWan]

40 minutes ago, Huayrat said:

The Baht is an absolutely con Rip off job that's controlled and not let to freely go up or down.. people who say it's linked to the Dollar are wrong.. Take this week.. The Dollar opened up at 1.35.1.. The Baht opened at 43.07.. The Dollar rise all the way Up to 1.36 and the baht hit 43.16.. The Baht did not move..

Now the Dollar is back at the level it was at opening on the 2nd January and the Baht drops massively to 43.6.. That is a 1% loss.. So how come when the pound strenghthens the baht doesn't move but when the pound against the Dollar weakens the baht collapses..

 

It is one big rip off and is being controlled

You made a mistake in believing the people who told you that the baht is 'linked' to the dollar. Unfortunately this false assumption has led you down the garden path of making other mistaken assumptions. The one currency in the region that has a hard link to the dollar is HKD with a limited spread. SGD is more loosely linked with a basket of currencies. Currencies are best thought of in pairs. However, traders do try to arbitrage currencies where they can. Where you might see a regular pattern endlessly repeating itself, then fill your boots. You have? Well done.

[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, JemJem said:

Gees; the baht still keeps on strengthening against the US dollar. Did many people expect this I wonder, say, a few months ago ? Possibly not.

 

I am no expert in this kind of thing, but I won't be surprised if the dollar-baht rate gets to be very close to 31.00 for a $100 bill (it is at 31.85 as of now, at Bangkok Bank), by the time the high tourist season ends.

The story is essentially one of the dollar weakening.

[SheungWan]

On 12/16/2017 at 2:07 PM, farcanell said:

But move it I must..... preferably as advantageously as possible....

 

i brought it in near 30 baht per dollar.... going out paying 24 baht per dollar works..... right?

There comes a point when one desires to move money either into or out of a currency for whatever reason and it is at that moment when one takes a position ie puts one's money where one's mouth is, that really matters. The mouths on the sidelines, well personal forecasts are free. So, not a bad time to cash out and an expensive time to transfer in as far as baht is concerned IMHO.

[janclaes47]

2 hours ago, Huayrat said:

The Baht is an absolutely con Rip off job that's controlled and not let to freely go up or down.. people who say it's linked to the Dollar are wrong.. Take this week.. The Dollar opened up at 1.35.1.. The Baht opened at 43.07.. The Dollar rise all the way Up to 1.36 and the baht hit 43.16.. The Baht did not move..

Now the Dollar is back at the level it was at opening on the 2nd January and the Baht drops massively to 43.6.. That is a 1% loss.. So how come when the pound strenghthens the baht doesn't move but when the pound against the Dollar weakens the baht collapses..

 

It is one big rip off and is being controlled

 

Just a hint, look at the Dollar / Baht rate at the same time.

 

Why would the Dollar / Pound rate have anything to do with the Baht / Pound rate?

[simoh1490]

4 hours ago, Huayrat said:

The Baht is an absolutely con Rip off job that's controlled and not let to freely go up or down.. people who say it's linked to the Dollar are wrong.. Take this week.. The Dollar opened up at 1.35.1.. The Baht opened at 43.07.. The Dollar rise all the way Up to 1.36 and the baht hit 43.16.. The Baht did not move..

Now the Dollar is back at the level it was at opening on the 2nd January and the Baht drops massively to 43.6.. That is a 1% loss.. So how come when the pound strenghthens the baht doesn't move but when the pound against the Dollar weakens the baht collapses..

 

It is one big rip off and is being controlled

14

The Baht is not linked to the US Dollar nor anything else. You talk about the Pound strengthening, I think what happened was the Dollar Index dropped so the Dollar fell against the Pound, that would leave THB pretty much where it was against GBP. https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-streaming-chart

Edited January 4, 2018 by simoh1490

[SheungWan]

6 hours ago, Huayrat said:

The Baht is an absolutely con Rip off job that's controlled and not let to freely go up or down.. people who say it's linked to the Dollar are wrong.. Take this week.. The Dollar opened up at 1.35.1.. The Baht opened at 43.07.. The Dollar rise all the way Up to 1.36 and the baht hit 43.16.. The Baht did not move..

Now the Dollar is back at the level it was at opening on the 2nd January and the Baht drops massively to 43.6.. That is a 1% loss.. So how come when the pound strenghthens the baht doesn't move but when the pound against the Dollar weakens the baht collapses..

 

It is one big rip off and is being controlled

 

4 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

 

Just a hint, look at the Dollar / Baht rate at the same time.

 

Why would the Dollar / Pound rate have anything to do with the Baht / Pound rate?

 A general comment might be in order that maybe currencies such as the THB are currently discounting sterling more than the USD due to the uncertainties of Brexit and this possibly explains why GBPTHB is sticky when to the upside? (maybe worth comparing the performance of other regional currency pairs with GBP and USD) and If the likelihood of a soft Brexit firms, there may be a break to the upside for GBPTHB.

 

 

[simoh1490]

A weaker Dollar is OK for THB since it avoids the need for BOT to increase interest rates. But global factories are booming and as a result, commodity prices are rising as global inventories are consumed, that could easily translate into inflation and raised interest rates all around, including in Thailand and that means a stronger Baht.

 

 

[ubonjoe]

A baiting post and the expected reply to it have been removed.

[metisdead]

Posts containing off topic generalizations and grammar lessons have been removed as well as the replies. 

[Naam]

On 1/5/2018 at 6:59 AM, simoh1490 said:

A weaker Dollar is OK for THB since it avoids the need for BOT to increase interest rates. But global factories are booming and as a result, commodity prices are rising as global inventories are consumed, that could easily translate into inflation and raised interest rates all around, including in Thailand and that means a stronger Baht.

 

interest rates raised "all around" does not mean a stronger Baht. and reality shows clearly since years that increasing interest rates does not necessarily mean a currency will strengthen. USD lost last 12 months 6% vs. €UR inspite of three $ hikes.

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Naam

[simoh1490]

4 minutes ago, Naam said:

interest rates raised "all around" does not mean a stronger Baht.

My take on this is that THB is already quite a strong currency and that if interest rates were raised proportionately on a global basis, the result would be that THB would strengthen, if and proportionately being the operative words. Having said that, there are some currencies that would find it extremely difficult to increase interest rates very much at all, the UK being one, therefore, the balance of currency strength is likely to remain with THB, no?

Edited January 6, 2018 by simoh1490

[Naam]

5 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

My take on this is that THB is already quite a strong currency and that if interest rates were raised proportionately on a global basis, the result would be that THB would strengthen, if and proportionately being the operative words. Having said that, there are some currencies that would find it extremely difficult to increase interest rates very much at all, the UK being one, therefore, the balance of currency strength is likely to remain with THB, no?

agreed!

[Banana7]

As at 6JAN2018 19:40 Thailand time, all technical indicators are saying to sell USD and buy THB,  USD = 32.174B at https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-thb-technical

 

Technical indicators:

Buy: 0

Sell: 10

Neutral: 0

Summary:Strong Sell

Moving averages:

Buy: 0

Sell: 12

Summary:Strong Sell

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Banana7