Syria says it seized nearly 75 percent of eastern Aleppo

[webfact]

Syria says it seized nearly 75 percent of eastern Aleppo

By PHILIP ISSA and HOWARD AMOS

 

BEIRUT (AP) — Syrian government forces and allied militias captured Aleppo's centrally located al-Shaar neighborhood from rebels on Tuesday, securing nearly three quarters of the besieged enclave less than two weeks after launching a ground offensive, according to the Syrian military.

 

The Syrian government and its ally Russia meanwhile rejected a cease-fire for the war-torn city, keeping up the military offensive amid rebel retreats and massive displacement.

 

Rebels withdrew from al-Shaar under heavy bombardment by pro-government forces to the Marjeh and Maadi neighborhoods, local media activist Mahmoud Raslan told The Associated Press. Several gunmen were killed.

 

"Morale has hit rock bottom," he said from inside the city's remaining rebel-held enclave.

 

The SANA state news agency said the government captured the entire neighborhood as well as the neighborhoods of al-Qatarji and Karm al-Dada.

 

A map provided by the Syria army showed a quickly shrinking opposition enclave— a pointed leaf-shaped territory in the center, abutting already government-controlled Aleppo districts. The army media said the new gains bring the area controlled by the government in eastern Aleppo to about 73 percent of its original size, which is estimated to be about 45 square kilometers (17 square miles.)

 

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group also reported the gains.

 

Al-Shaar was home to at least four hospitals available to residents trapped by the government's siege of the eastern part of the city. But those hospitals, along the rest of the neighborhood, were bombed by the government's attacks and evacuated. Broad swaths of the city's eastern quarters are in ruins.

 

Ibrahim al-Haj, a civil defense member, said he was in the neighborhood shortly before it fell to the government. "It is totally destroyed," he said, adding that if he had stayed a minute longer he would have been captured. He said the previously densely populated district had largely been deserted since the government forces first moved in on the eastern districts last weekend.

 

A government intense aerial offensive had preceded the ground troops' advances.

 

Rebel defenses are collapsing under the weight of twin offensives by pro-government forces.

 

Rebels and pro-government forces fought street-to-street in the city's southern Saif al-Dawleh and al-Zabadiyeh neighborhoods, according to footage provided by Syrian military media and audio provided by local teacher and media activist Abdelkafi Alhamdo.

 

The Syrian government and its ally Russia on Tuesday issued stark warnings to rebels in besieged eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo, with Moscow's top diplomat saying the rebels will be wiped out unless they stop fighting and leave the city.

 

Damascus also said it rejects any cease-fire for Aleppo that does not include the departure of all rebels from the eastern part of the city and that it won't allow the rebels to use a truce as a chance to "regroup."

 

The tough rhetoric comes a day after Russia and China blocked a draft resolution at the U.N. Security Council demanding a seven-day truce in Aleppo to evacuate the sick and wounded and to provide humanitarian aid workers time to get food and medicine into the city. Russia, a main backer of the Syrian government, is supporting the government's offensive in Aleppo and has repeatedly blocked action in the Security Council over Syria.

 

"Those who refuse to leave nicely will be destroyed," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters in Moscow, speaking of the Syrian rebels. "There is no other way."

 

In Damascus, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried on the state SANA news agency, that the government will not allow rebels a chance to "regroup and repeat their crimes" in the divided city — a reference to rebel shelling of Aleppo's western, government-held districts that has killed 81 civilians in the past three weeks, according to the Observatory.

 

The government's offensive to take eastern Aleppo killed 341 civilians over the same period and displaced tens of thousands over the past week, the Observatory and other activist groups have said.

 

Residents in the city's east reported heavy shelling and bombardment overnight.

 

"A rocket struck the fifth floor of the building we are staying in, but thankfully no one was hurt," said Judy al-Halaby, an activist sheltering in the Mashhad neighborhood.

 

Meanwhile, rebel shelling of of Foua and Kfarya, two besieged pro-government towns in northwestern Idlib province killed at least 10 people, many from the same family, according to a Facebook page operated by activists in the predominantly Shiite towns. The Observatory put the death toll in the two towns at 12, including three children.

 

At the press conference in Moscow, Lavrov lamented what he described as attempts by the United States to obtain a pause in the fighting in Aleppo to allow rebels to re-arm and re-supply. He said that "serious conversations with our American partners are not working."

 

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday that he hopes to convince Syria's warring factions and their backers to return to the negotiating table before Aleppo is destroyed.

 

Kerry said he is due to meet Lavrov in Hamburg, Germany on Thursday and would try to find a way forward.

 

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman said the Kremlin regrets a "more than modest" reaction by the international community following a rocket attack on a Russian military hospital in Aleppo on Monday that killed two Russian nurses.

 

Russian officials alleged rebels were provided coordinates to the hospital by a foreign power, though they did not specify a particular country.

 

After the Russian and Chinese veto at the Security Council, U.S. diplomats accused their Russian counterparts of stalling for time as Syrian government forces advance in Aleppo.

___

Amos reported from Moscow. Associated Press writers Sarah El Deeb in Beirut and Bassem Mroue in Damascus, Syria contributed to this report.

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-12-07

[retarius]

Lavrov is right. He's learned his lesson from previous ceasefires which have only prolonged the war causing more deaths among civilians. We need a huge push to utterly destroy every one of these inhuman terrorists in Eastern Aleppo. It is the only way for any possibility for the war to end. Aleppo is strategically important (for those that don't know) as it is the final major urban area not now under Government control. After securing Aleppo it will be relatively easy to pick off ISIS in rural areas. 

The estimates of 250,000 civilians in Aleppo put out as US propaganda are wildly inaccurate as we can see from the numbers who have been liberated….only about 70,000 so far in 75% of the city.

[craigt3365]

23 minutes ago, retarius said:

Lavrov is right. He's learned his lesson from previous ceasefires which have only prolonged the war causing more deaths among civilians. We need a huge push to utterly destroy every one of these inhuman terrorists in Eastern Aleppo. It is the only way for any possibility for the war to end. Aleppo is strategically important (for those that don't know) as it is the final major urban area not now under Government control. After securing Aleppo it will be relatively easy to pick off ISIS in rural areas. 

The estimates of 250,000 civilians in Aleppo put out as US propaganda are wildly inaccurate as we can see from the numbers who have been liberated….only about 70,000 so far in 75% of the city.

What previous ceasefires?  None were really honored.  Aid definitely didn't get to those in need.  The main entity causing deaths among civilians is Russia and Syria with their indiscriminate bombing.  Both using crude bombs with limited accuracy.

 

Many of the "terrorists" in Aleppo are just rebels fighting against Assad.  You'll never eliminate all of them.  They've got too much hate for Assad.  And for good reasons.  Securing Aleppo won't end the war.  Show a credible link saying only 70k civilians are left in the city.  Everything I read says around 250k.

 

You should read this:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38209766

Quote

 

But will the defeat of IS in Mosul and Raqqa, or the recapture of Aleppo by the Syrian government, actually bring peace any closer?

 

The grim truth is that they may simply herald the next equally bitter stage in the conflict.

 

 

[Thorgal]

The Syrian and Russian army provided almost daily leaflets to 'surrender now' in the rebels occupied territories.

There's no reason to stay in Aleppo, except if you're forced to as a human shields...






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[simple1]

Now being reported civilians fleeing Aleppo are being detained and conscripted by the regime. Given the terrible conditions and the death toll of forced conscripts  looks like Assad is setting up yet more conflict for the future.

[Morch]

4 hours ago, Thorgal said:

The Syrian and Russian army provided almost daily leaflets to 'surrender now' in the rebels occupied territories.

There's no reason to stay in Aleppo, except if you're forced to as a human shields...






Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect

 

The first pic is taken from a report dated April 2016.

 

Syrian Regime Urges Opposition To ‘Surrender’ Ahead Of New Offensive In Homs

http://www.ibtimes.com/syrian-regime-urges-opposition-surrender-ahead-new-offensive-homs-2357366

 

Syrian Air Force drops thousands of leaflets over northern Homs: “surrender now”

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-air-force-drops-thousands-leaflets-northern-homs-surrender-now/

 

The second pic does not feature a Syrian (or a Russian) helicopter, but rather a US black hawk. This specific one was, apparently,

dropping leaflets in Afghanistan. Back in 2009.

http://airmanmom.blogspot.com/2009/11/leaflets.html

 

I don't think the local civilian populace really trusts Assad's forces (or any other faction in the area) when it comes to their safety. For all they know, they could be mass slaughtered, something practiced by Assad Sr. and Jr. alike. 

 

[craigt3365]

4 hours ago, Thorgal said:

The Syrian and Russian army provided almost daily leaflets to 'surrender now' in the rebels occupied territories.

There's no reason to stay in Aleppo, except if you're forced to as a human shields...
Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect

Those who've tried to escape previously haven't had much luck.  Leaflets might not mean much to those who are being bombed every day. LOL

 

https://www.middleeastobserver.org/2016/09/11/syria-ceasefire-more-than-100-civilians-killed-after-the-deal/

Quote

Syria ceasefire: More than 100 civilians killed after the deal

 

http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=50680

Quote

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights observed the death of the first three civilians since the start of the ceasefire agreement, after entering the fourth day of the American – Russian agreement, where the observatory observed the death of a child from Hodr town in the northern countryside of Al-Quneitra by the factions’ targeting of areas in town using rocket shells, also the observatory observed the death of a child affected by injuries he had hours earlier by a sniper shot in the neighborhood Al-Masharqa which is under the control of the regime forces in Aleppo city, while SOHR documented the death of a person by regime’s sniper in al-Zebdiyyeh neighborhood which is controlled by the factions in Aleppo city.

 

http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/15-september-a-syrian-government-sniper-killed-civilian-alaa

Quote

A Syrian Government sniper killed civilian Alaa Basosi in Bustan al-Qasr neighbourhood of the besieged Eastern Aleppo, Syria.

 

And of course stuff like this doesn't help:

http://syriadirect.org/news/regime-sniper-picks-off-zabadani’s-last-doctor/

Quote

Regime sniper picks off Zabadani’s last doctor

 

[craigt3365]

15 hours ago, simple1 said:

Now being reported civilians fleeing Aleppo are being detained and conscripted by the regime. Given the terrible conditions and the death toll of forced conscripts  looks like Assad is setting up yet more conflict for the future.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-promises-wipe-anyone-left-193644151.html?.tsrc=daily_mail

 

Quote

 

Russian officials are threatening to target anyone who refuses to leave the rebel-held eastern Aleppo, after another round of talks between Washington and Moscow failed to materialize on Tuesday.

As Syrian government forces and their allies continue to snatch neighborhoods away from rebels inside the city in bloody street-by-street fighting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov  said Tuesday that “if somebody refuses to leave Aleppo on good terms, he will be eliminated…there is no other way out.”

 

 

They should put Lavrov inside Aleppo.  I bet he'd change his stance quickly.

 

 

[manarak]

It's good news.

The quicker the government recovers control of Aleppo, the less people will die, this is the right way out of the crisis instead of prolonging it further.

 

I can't understand why people want to support islamists and jihadists which make up 90% of the rebel forces and who in case of a rebel victory would make a democratic post-Assad regime impossible.

[craigt3365]

4 minutes ago, manarak said:

It's good news.

The quicker the government recovers control of Aleppo, the less people will die, this is the right way out of the crisis instead of prolonging it further.

 

I can't understand why people want to support islamists and jihadists which make up 90% of the rebel forces and who in case of a rebel victory would make a democratic post-Assad regime impossible.

The crisis won't stop with the takeover of Aleppo.  As has been pointed out before, what's changed that will make the population accept Assad and his brutal ways?  Answer: nothing.  Assad's army is in tatters and he still says he wants to take over the entire country.  Turkey is in there now and Russia won't take this much further.  Luckily.  It's a huge mess with no easy answers.

 

I'm not sure I've seen anybody here express support for jihadists?  Support for civilian's against Assad's brutal rule?  Absolutely.  That's what started this mess in the first place.  Right?

[Thorgal]

Now being reported civilians fleeing Aleppo are being detained and conscripted by the regime. Given the terrible conditions and the death toll of forced conscripts  looks like Assad is setting up yet more conflict for the future.

Quote from link :

"Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Thursday offered amnesty to rebels who give up their weapons and surrender to authorities within the next three months.

In addition to the amnesty deal, Assad and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russia and the Syrian government will open up four corridors out of the besieged town of Aleppo – three for civilians and rebels who wish to lay down their arms, and another for rebels who want to flee with their weapons."

http://www.voanews.com/a/assad-offers-amnesty-for-rebels-free-passage-for-civilians-in-aleppo/3438239.html



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[manarak]

11 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

The crisis won't stop with the takeover of Aleppo.  As has been pointed out before, what's changed that will make the population accept Assad and his brutal ways?  Answer: nothing.  Assad's army is in tatters and he still says he wants to take over the entire country.  Turkey is in there now and Russia won't take this much further.  Luckily.  It's a huge mess with no easy answers.

 

I'm not sure I've seen anybody here express support for jihadists?  Support for civilian's against Assad's brutal rule?  Absolutely.  That's what started this mess in the first place.  Right?

 

no, not right.

Assad is a dictator who maintained calm in the country, not unlike some other dictators did in central Asian countries, like Uzbekistan.

 

my opinion is that this mess has been engineered with the hope that the "moderates" would seize power and install a democracy.

 

Instead, surprise, surprise, inspite of strong US support the mostly non-violent moderates didn't stand and fight for their freedom, but instead they fled the country leaving the US with no other choice than to finance jihadists and al-quaeda to fight against Assad.

 

in countries where Islamists have such strong support, the only way to maintain secular power is dictature. look at Egypt and tell me what's wrong there.

 

If you want that civilians stop to die, then you want Assad. Quickly.

 

What other solution do you see? Or do you dispute the widely accepted fact that rebel forces are composed of 90% islamists?

Edited December 8, 2016 by manarak

[simple1]

8 hours ago, Thorgal said:

 

Quote from link :

"Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Thursday offered amnesty to rebels who give up their weapons and surrender to authorities within the next three months.

In addition to the amnesty deal, Assad and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russia and the Syrian government will open up four corridors out of the besieged town of Aleppo – three for civilians and rebels who wish to lay down their arms, and another for rebels who want to flee with their weapons."

http://www.voanews.com/a/assad-offers-amnesty-for-rebels-free-passage-for-civilians-in-aleppo/3438239.html

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect

 

 

Given Assad's record prior to and during the civil war on the treatment of civilians personally I would have zero trust either in him or his security forces. However, it's an article from July, 2016  which has no relevance to the current policy position of the Assad dictatorship

[simple1]

7 hours ago, manarak said:

 

no, not right.

Assad is a dictator who maintained calm in the country, not unlike some other dictators did in central Asian countries, like Uzbekistan.

 

my opinion is that this mess has been engineered with the hope that the "moderates" would seize power and install a democracy.

 

Instead, surprise, surprise, inspite of strong US support the mostly non-violent moderates didn't stand and fight for their freedom, but instead they fled the country leaving the US with no other choice than to finance jihadists and al-quaeda to fight against Assad.

 

in countries where Islamists have such strong support, the only way to maintain secular power is dictature. look at Egypt and tell me what's wrong there.

 

If you want that civilians stop to die, then you want Assad. Quickly.

 

What other solution do you see? Or do you dispute the widely accepted fact that rebel forces are composed of 90% islamists?

 

Nothing like rewriting history.

 

Fine to have opinions, but how about some facts such as Assad's support of Islamists prior to and at the beginning of the civil war. A few snippets....

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/assad-policies-aided-rise-of-islamic-state-militant-group-1408739733

 

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/former-prisoners-fight-in-syrian-insurgency-a-927158.html

 

[Thorgal]

 
Given Assad's record prior to and during the civil war on the treatment of civilians personally I would have zero trust either in him or his security forces. However, it's an article from July, 2016  which has no relevance to the current policy position of the Assad dictatorship

Requests from Syrian and Russian armies to the rebels and civilians to leave Aleppo have been made regularly as I've mentioned it before.

From 2nd of November 2016 :
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-medeast-crisis-syria-russia-idUKKBN12X0OR

From 6th of December 2016 :
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/aleppo-fighting-continues-syrian-government-russia-warn-rebels-to-leave-city/

Similar cases of amnesty have been done successfully in South Africa and Algeria.




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[craigt3365]

11 hours ago, manarak said:

 

no, not right.

Assad is a dictator who maintained calm in the country, not unlike some other dictators did in central Asian countries, like Uzbekistan.

 

my opinion is that this mess has been engineered with the hope that the "moderates" would seize power and install a democracy.

 

Instead, surprise, surprise, inspite of strong US support the mostly non-violent moderates didn't stand and fight for their freedom, but instead they fled the country leaving the US with no other choice than to finance jihadists and al-quaeda to fight against Assad.

 

in countries where Islamists have such strong support, the only way to maintain secular power is dictature. look at Egypt and tell me what's wrong there.

 

If you want that civilians stop to die, then you want Assad. Quickly.

 

What other solution do you see? Or do you dispute the widely accepted fact that rebel forces are composed of 90% islamists?

Assad maintained a semblance of calm with brutal repression of his people.  And it was calm until they decided enough was enough.  So in reality, he didn't maintain calm.  Look where the country is now due to his rule.  The mess was definitely engineered.  By Assad and his father before him.  Eventually, the people will revolt.  And they did.  It's not 100% about democracy.  It's about giving the people some freedoms.

 

Strong US support?  There was never strong US support.  The civil war won't stop until Assad is gone.  The people won't accept his rule.  There are no easy answers for what to do.  It's an extremely complicated mess with a variety of factions now involved.

[craigt3365]

4 hours ago, Thorgal said:

Requests from Syrian and Russian armies to the rebels and civilians to leave Aleppo have been made regularly as I've mentioned it before.

From 2nd of November 2016 :
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-medeast-crisis-syria-russia-idUKKBN12X0OR

From 6th of December 2016 :
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/aleppo-fighting-continues-syrian-government-russia-warn-rebels-to-leave-city/

Similar cases of amnesty have been done successfully in South Africa and Algeria.

 

 

Requests are easily made, but making sure they really happen is another thing.  There has never been a proper ceasefire and a way for innocent civilians to leave.  Those who tried were shot at or captured when they left and never seen from again.

 

Russia and Syria are not known for telling the truth.  The world knows this.  As do those in Syria.

[craigt3365]

Seems the bombing hasn't stopped.  So much for the promises for stopping the bombing and protecting the innocent civilians who want to leave.  More talk, more bombing.

 

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/957659-russia-says-aleppo-combat-suspended-residents-say-no-let-up/

 

Quote

Russia said the Syrian army was suspending combat operations in Aleppo late Thursday to allow for the evacuation of civilians from besieged rebel-held neighborhoods, but residents and fighters reported no let-up in the bombing and shelling campaign on the opposition's ever-shrinking enclave.

 

[manarak]

10 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

Assad maintained a semblance of calm with brutal repression of his people.  And it was calm until they decided enough was enough.  So in reality, he didn't maintain calm.  Look where the country is now due to his rule.  The mess was definitely engineered.  By Assad and his father before him.  Eventually, the people will revolt.  And they did.  It's not 100% about democracy.  It's about giving the people some freedoms.

 

Strong US support?  There was never strong US support.  The civil war won't stop until Assad is gone.  The people won't accept his rule.  There are no easy answers for what to do.  It's an extremely complicated mess with a variety of factions now involved.

 

http://www.neulandzeitung.com/single-post/2016/04/05/What-was-life-in-Syria-like-before-war-until-it-started-Interview

[Morch]

On 12/8/2016 at 7:27 AM, manarak said:

It's good news.

The quicker the government recovers control of Aleppo, the less people will die, this is the right way out of the crisis instead of prolonging it further.

 

I can't understand why people want to support islamists and jihadists which make up 90% of the rebel forces and who in case of a rebel victory would make a democratic post-Assad regime impossible.

 

The quicker the government recovers control of Aleppo, the less people will die....

 

There will probably be less people. That's for sure.

 

I can't understand why people want to support islamists and jihadists which make up 90% of the rebel forces and who in case of a rebel victory would make a democratic post-Assad regime impossible.

 

I don't know that anyone here expressed support for Islamist and Jihadist organizations. Does this 90% "fact" include Kurd forces? Is it based on anything concrete?  Syria was not overly democratic (appearances aside) under Assad, and will probably not be overly democratic if he wins.

 

 

[Morch]

On 12/8/2016 at 7:06 PM, manarak said:

 

no, not right.

Assad is a dictator who maintained calm in the country, not unlike some other dictators did in central Asian countries, like Uzbekistan.

 

my opinion is that this mess has been engineered with the hope that the "moderates" would seize power and install a democracy.

 

Instead, surprise, surprise, inspite of strong US support the mostly non-violent moderates didn't stand and fight for their freedom, but instead they fled the country leaving the US with no other choice than to finance jihadists and al-quaeda to fight against Assad.

 

in countries where Islamists have such strong support, the only way to maintain secular power is dictature. look at Egypt and tell me what's wrong there.

 

If you want that civilians stop to die, then you want Assad. Quickly.

 

What other solution do you see? Or do you dispute the widely accepted fact that rebel forces are composed of 90% islamists?

 

There usually have to be some real sentiment to work with, in order for things to be "engineered". Assad's victory is unlikely to be complete, and the same goes for him regaining full control over all former Syrian territory. It will also not be surprising if punitive action will be taken against areas and civilians deemed to have opposed him.

[manarak]

3 hours ago, Morch said:

 

There usually have to be some real sentiment to work with, in order for things to be "engineered". Assad's victory is unlikely to be complete, and the same goes for him regaining full control over all former Syrian territory. It will also not be surprising if punitive action will be taken against areas and civilians deemed to have opposed him.

3 hours ago, Morch said:

 

The quicker the government recovers control of Aleppo, the less people will die....

 

There will probably be less people. That's for sure.

 

I can't understand why people want to support islamists and jihadists which make up 90% of the rebel forces and who in case of a rebel victory would make a democratic post-Assad regime impossible.

 

I don't know that anyone here expressed support for Islamist and Jihadist organizations. Does this 90% "fact" include Kurd forces? Is it based on anything concrete?  Syria was not overly democratic (appearances aside) under Assad, and will probably not be overly democratic if he wins.

 

 

 

yes, we agree Morch.

 

no, I don't mean Kurd forces, I mean the mythical ghost of the Free Syrian Army that fronts in the media for its islamist allies.

 

The Kurds are just an additional player, a thorn in prick-Erdogan's side and the only reason Turkey's forces are involved - Turkey wants to prevent the formation of an independent Kurd territory in northern Syria.   Democracy can't work in a country where support for islamists is so deep rooted.  organize free elections and the muslim brotherhood will win - that result would not have been a progress over Assad's dictature.

Although oppressive, often brutal against political activists and corrupt, the regime nevertheless maintained peace and freedom of religion and did some things to improve the well being of its citizens, such as hospitals, universites, schools, etc.

 

the every day reality in such regimes is that persons who don't get involved in politics are unlikely to run into problems.  yes, there was oppression and discontent, but not as much among the secular population as the US-trained activists had hoped for. After the incident with the imprisoned youth, their first online calls for organizing large scale protests remained without effect.  Then, they got more aggressive and called for a bloody sunday or something similar. At that point, the islamist opposition (muslim brotherhood) joined in - whether they were called upon the US-controlled activists for fear of failing to ignite Syria or whether the islamists smelled an opportunity to seize power remains to be seen.  But from that point on, Syria's "democratic forces" were doomed to fail, and that was very early.

 

what would your solution be for a post-Assad Syria ? to install a "dictature of democracy" ?

 

because that is the kind of regime we currently have in Afghanistan and Irak - people there would probably rush to vote in islamists if given the chance, but we feel of course better because the regimes there are remote-controlled by Washington.

 

The problems there are far from being resolved, and if US support is removed, they will quickly fall into civil war, or not even civil war because islamists would take control right away (in Afghanistan).

 

But Syria is very different from Irak or Afghanistan: there are no Western ground troops involved, so I don't really see who could install a democratic regime - do you?

[manarak]

15 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

Assad maintained a semblance of calm with brutal repression of his people.  And it was calm until they decided enough was enough.  So in reality, he didn't maintain calm.  Look where the country is now due to his rule.  The mess was definitely engineered.  By Assad and his father before him.  Eventually, the people will revolt.  And they did.  It's not 100% about democracy.  It's about giving the people some freedoms.

 

Strong US support?  There was never strong US support.  The civil war won't stop until Assad is gone.  The people won't accept his rule.  There are no easy answers for what to do.  It's an extremely complicated mess with a variety of factions now involved.

 

well, secular Syrians describing what everyday life under Assad was like disagree with you. You should read up on the subject.

Start at the UNHCR:

http://unhcr.org.au/news/syria-my-life-before-the-war/

 

Another question:

have you ever been in countries with dictatorial regimes said to be "hard" on their people?

[surangw]

once they "own" it, who will pay to rebuild it ?

[manarak]

20 hours ago, simple1 said:

 

Nothing like rewriting history.

 

Fine to have opinions, but how about some facts such as Assad's support of Islamists prior to and at the beginning of the civil war. A few snippets....

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/assad-policies-aided-rise-of-islamic-state-militant-group-1408739733

 

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/former-prisoners-fight-in-syrian-insurgency-a-927158.html

 

 

yes, correct - I think Assad has been using islamists to weaken the other rebels and also strengthen his position against the USA.

I don't have any doubts though that once Assad has stabilized his power, he plans these islamists to meet a premature end or disappear once more in his prisons.

By the way, the USA followed a similar strategy in Afghanistan against the USSR.

It's a devious and dangerous game for sure.

[manarak]

3 minutes ago, surangw said:

once they "own" it, who will pay to rebuild it ?

who is "they"?

[surangw]

1 hour ago, manarak said:

who is "they"?

 

 

who every wins the so called war?

[manarak]

54 minutes ago, surangw said:

who every wins the so called war?

 

if we assume it's Assad, then the Syrian people will rebuild, probably with help from Russian companies, in a sort of "pax russiana".

[Scott]

2 hours ago, manarak said:

 

yes, correct - I think Assad has been using islamists to weaken the other rebels and also strengthen his position against the USA.

I don't have any doubts though that once Assad has stabilized his power, he plans these islamists to meet a premature end or disappear once more in his prisons.  By the way, the USA followed a similar strategy in Afghanistan against the USSR.  It's a devious and dangerous game for sure.

One of the reasons for Assad's unpopularity in the region is that he doesn't necessarily get rid of terrorists.   He harbors them as long as the mayhem they cause is outside of his country.  

[The manic]

We need to use the Russian and assad tactics in the UK.