May's Brexit plan likely to survive parliamentary assault

[webfact]

May's Brexit plan likely to survive parliamentary assault

By William James

REUTERS

 

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May listens to her Turkish counterpart Binali Yildirim (not pictured) during a joint news conference in Ankara, Turkey, January 28, 2017. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Theresa May's plan to leave the European Union is expected to survive weeks of intense parliamentary scrutiny starting on Tuesday, despite pro-EU lawmakers' attempts to force the government to rethink its strategy.

 

May's government is seeking approval for a new law giving her the right to trigger Article 50 - the legal process for leaving the bloc - after the Supreme Court ruled last week that she could not take that decision unilaterally.

 

Some lawmakers will try to use the legislative process to press her to reveal closely-guarded details of her negotiating strategy, give parliament and devolved governments more say over the exit talks, or even block Brexit entirely.

 

But Conservative leader May's majority in parliament means her plan to start Brexit negotiations by the end of March is currently expected to pass through parliament's legislative process relatively unchanged and on time.

 

"I suspect at the moment there isn't going to be enough for a majority for any amendment," a source close to cross-party discussions on the legislation told Reuters.

 

"The bottom line is that there is very, very, very little appetite for Conservative MPs (Members of Parliament) to back any amendments."

 

"HARD BREXIT"?

 

The second largest party, Labour, is expected to call for more parliamentary scrutiny of the Brexit process, but has said it will not ultimately try to thwart it. Several Labour MPs disagree with this stance and will oppose the law.

 

Lawmakers who disagree with the government's plan to leave the EU's single market and negotiate a free trade deal with the bloc - a strategy described by some as a 'hard Brexit' - are gearing up for a fight.

 

Five separate amendments designed to halt the bill before it can become law have been submitted by lawmakers from different opposition parties. The two-day debate starting on Tuesday is expected to include a vote on one of these.

 

"If we’re serious about opposing an extreme Brexit then we can’t just wave through Article 50," said Caroline Lucas, a Green Party MP who has signed one of the amendments along with lawmakers from other parties.

 

In addition, 60 pages of proposed amendments to the short two-clause bill have been submitted for debate at later stages in the parliamentary process, seeking to change the bill for a range of different reasons.

 

The government is expected to use its majority to resist any substantial amendments to the bill, arguing that the June 23 referendum to leave the bloc has already empowered them to execute Britain's withdrawal.

 

"It is simply about implementing a decision already made, a point of no return already passed," Brexit minister David Davis will say. "We asked the people of the UK if they wanted to leave the EU; they decided they did."

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-01-31

[Laughing Gravy]

. Finally get it done and get running the country to ensure the UK is in the best position for trade. All this futile legal bickering is a waste of time and money. I am glad though that Trump is making all the headlines and it would seem that the remain brigade have something else to focus on.

[jpinx]

Now the fun starts :)  The debates are going to be interesting viewing, given how many of the MP's are pro-EU

[jpinx]

1 minute ago, Laughing Gravy said:

. Finally get it done and get running the country to ensure the UK is in the best position for trade. All this futile legal bickering is a waste of time and money. I am glad though that Trump is making all the headlines and it would seem that the remain brigade have something else to focus on.

It'll be great when he turns up at Buckingham palace for dinner and tells Bessie that Brexit is the best thing since the Boston Tea Party :)    Maybe he'll take a flying visit to Stornoway to see his mum's home -- that'll get the SNP out with a red carpet and bands playing -- and dour faces!!  haha!!

 

 

[nakhonandy]

Even Corbyn has accepted it. A few EU gravy train diehards will not deter this.

[Baerboxer]

1 hour ago, nakhonandy said:

Even Corbyn has accepted it. A few EU gravy train diehards will not deter this.

 

Corbyn has always been anti EU. He claimed to have changed his mind on becoming leader of the Labor Party. We all saw what a great job he did during the referendum campaign - looking totally uninterested and half-hearted.

 

Hope plenty of his MPs ignore his instruction.

[kamahele]

I felt sorry for this poor, desperate woman when she had to swallow her pride and come begging to Trump for business. A fate worse than death. 

[jpinx]

11 minutes ago, kamahele said:

I felt sorry for this poor, desperate woman when she had to swallow her pride and come begging to Trump for business. A fate worse than death. 

"...come begging..."  so you are already in the USofA and might have missed the fact that Trump was talking about a good deal for independent UK long before his election

[emilymat]

3 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

. Finally get it done and get running the country to ensure the UK is in the best position for trade. All this futile legal bickering is a waste of time and money. I am glad though that Trump is making all the headlines and it would seem that the remain brigade have something else to focus on.

Interesting though. Trump was elected on a ticket to restrict immigration, yet the world applauds the demonstrations throughout the US and this country against his policy.

 

May was 'elected' (if you can call it that) on the 'Brexit means Brexit' ticket - something she didn't actually believe in.

 

Now, if the 'remainers' organised mass demonstrations against the hard Brexit she is going to deliver, then we would simply be referred to as 'undemocratic and refusing to accept the will  of the people".

[sanukjim]

5 hours ago, jpinx said:

Now the fun starts :)  The debates are going to be interesting viewing, given how many of the MP's are pro-EU

And when they are found out ,oust them with elections.

[Prbkk]

3 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Corbyn has always been anti EU. He claimed to have changed his mind on becoming leader of the Labor Party. We all saw what a great job he did during the referendum campaign - looking totally uninterested and half-hearted.

 

Hope plenty of his MPs ignore his instruction.

He looked like one of the Zombie extras in Sean of the Dead. How he has the bare-faced gall to cling on, knowing full well that he could never lead Labour back to power, is mystifying. At least Hollande, cut from the same cloth, had the good grace to call it a day.

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

All this futile legal bickering is a waste of time and money.

Democracy is typically about bickering without regard to time or cost.

 

But May did have the ability to immediately present to a parliament vote on Brexit rather than spending months challenging the parliamentary process with a persumptive  royal prerogative. One might view her strategy in hindsight to bypass parliamentary process as a waste of time and money since in the end it is llikely parliament will support Art. 50 for Brexit, albeit revealing more of May's exit strategy than she'd care to share openly.

[Retiredandhappyhere]

The people who think that Theresa May should reveal most of her negotiating strategy in public now clearly have never been involved in any important negotiations of their own.  Tell the other party what you are prepared to give way on and that becomes the starting point and you will be required to give way on even more.

 

When negotiating to buy a car, do you give your highest price first and when selling quote your lowest price first?  I do not think so!   It makes no sense to give too much information away prior to the start of negotiations.  The EU have also only so far quoted their terms for a "hard Brexit", which is basically "no deal without freedom of movement", knowing that is not acceptable to the UK.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, Prbkk said:

He looked like one of the Zombie extras in Sean of the Dead. How he has the bare-faced gall to cling on, knowing full well that he could never lead Labour back to power, is mystifying. At least Hollande, cut from the same cloth, had the good grace to call it a day.

Indeed

 

I'm sure he's a very nice man but UTTERLY incompetent 

 

Why would he apply a three line whip? The whole system of which brings U.K. Democracy into disrepute.

 

On an issue as serious as this he should have allowed all his MPs a free hand. Whether you believe as I do that MPs should vote according to their conscience and principles or whether you believe MPs are just puppets of their constituents, making them toe the Corbyn line is inviting rebellion!

 

There SHOULD at last be a thorough discussion followed by a free vote.

 

We're supposed to be the mother of democracies for goodness sake.

[Grouse]

10 minutes ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

The people who think that Theresa May should reveal most of her negotiating strategy in public now clearly have never been involved in any important negotiations of their own.  Tell the other party what you are prepared to give way on and that becomes the starting point and you will be required to give way on even more.

 

When negotiating to buy a car, do you give your highest price first and when selling quote your lowest price first?  I do not think so!   It makes no sense to give too much information away prior to the start of negotiations.  The EU have also only so far quoted their terms for a "hard Brexit", which is basically "no deal without freedom of movement", knowing that is not acceptable to the UK.

You seem to be a second hand car salesman? Yes?

 

Or an estate agent (Realtor for our cousins)?

 

Look, this is a highly complex NONE ZERO SUM game

 

It doesn't matter if all the cards are on the table. The situation is obvious!

 

Dear EU, we're in an invidious position. The masses have demanded separation, immunity from EU laws and protection from mass migration; but we want to keep trade, research, security, standards and holidays. How to do? Fancy a cup of tea?

[Khun Han]

5 hours ago, Grouse said:

You seem to be a second hand car salesman? Yes?

 

Or an estate agent (Realtor for our cousins)?

 

Look, this is a highly complex NONE ZERO SUM game

 

It doesn't matter if all the cards are on the table. The situation is obvious!

 

Dear EU, we're in an invidious position. The masses have demanded separation, immunity from EU laws and protection from mass migration; but we want to keep trade, research, security, standards and holidays. How to do? Fancy a cup of tea?

 

Why don't you stop prattling on about parliamentary democracy and just be honest for once? You want a free parliamentary vote because you cling to the hope that MPs will overturn brexit. And you want the government's negotiating plans revealed in order to make it easier for their opponents to thwart them.

[Grouse]

4 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Why don't you stop prattling on about parliamentary democracy and just be honest for once? You want a free parliamentary vote because you cling to the hope that MPs will overturn brexit. And you want the government's negotiating plans revealed in order to make it easier for their opponents to thwart them.

Several points here

 

1) I have always thought whips to be an insult to our democratic system. In this particular case I am DISMAYED that Corbyn would impose a three line whip. He should let his MPs vote according to what they think is correct. And, yes, risk the wrath of their constituents.

 

2) The "secrecy" over Brexit negotiation is a farce. It is is a cover up for getting the "best deal" for Con Party business owners and the wealthy at the expenses of the unwitting masses.

 

3) Personally, I don't really care anymore. I've rather given up hope of seeing anything sensible from May's (or Trump's) administration. I will stick with Europe one way or another. I do feel rather sad for the UK though.....

[7by7]

23 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Democracy is typically about bickering without regard to time or cost.

 

But May did have the ability to immediately present to a parliament vote on Brexit rather than spending months challenging the parliamentary process with a persumptive  royal prerogative. One might view her strategy in hindsight to bypass parliamentary process as a waste of time and money since in the end it is llikely parliament will support Art. 50 for Brexit, albeit revealing more of May's exit strategy than she'd care to share openly.

 

Which is why, I believe, she wanted to get on with triggering Article 50 without a debate in parliament.

 

Yes, this Bill will pass in both Houses; but this morning MPs are debating amendments to the Bill; many of which, if passed, will tie her hands in the negotiations and make her reveal her strategy before those negotiations have even begun.

 

Not a position any negotiator wants to be in!

[jpinx]

On 31/01/2017 at 0:23 PM, Srikcir said:

Democracy is typically about bickering without regard to time or cost.

 

But May did have the ability to immediately present to a parliament vote on Brexit rather than spending months challenging the parliamentary process with a persumptive  royal prerogative. One might view her strategy in hindsight to bypass parliamentary process as a waste of time and money since in the end it is llikely parliament will support Art. 50 for Brexit, albeit revealing more of May's exit strategy than she'd care to share openly.

Camoron was the one who promised to enact the result, but got cold feet when it didn't go his way.  The time wasted before May was appointed and had time to get her feet under the table meant that she missed the moment.  Being a pragmatist she could see an immediate vote would be dragged down by those MP's who were not very happy with the result, and the Royal Prerogative was worth a shot, based on the knowledge that it had been used before, and the delay of counter actions would not throw her timetable off too much. 

[jpinx]

16 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

Which is why, I believe, she wanted to get on with triggering Article 50 without a debate in parliament.

 

Yes, this Bill will pass in both Houses; but this morning MPs are debating amendments to the Bill; many of which, if passed, will tie her hands in the negotiations and make her reveal her strategy before those negotiations have even begun.

 

Not a position any negotiator wants to be in!

It's hard to see how an amendment could be written to "tie her hands" unless the amendment specifies what bits of what policies are to be "on the table" .  The MP's are a bunch of idiots if they try to circumscribe the negotiating position - it immediately becomes UK's final position and is public, so the EU team only have to say yes or no.  I know it's a travesty of democracy, but I hope the whips will prevent any such infantile amendments.

[modafinil]

Oh, I am looking forward to the next General Election!

 

Almost every MP idiotic enough to vote against Brexit will find themselves out of a job. Good riddance to the fools who refuse to represent the wishes of their constituents.

[melvinmelvin]

4 minutes ago, modafinil said:

Oh, I am looking forward to the next General Election!

 

Almost every MP idiotic enough to vote against Brexit will find themselves out of a job. Good riddance to the fools who refuse to represent the wishes of their constituents.

 

with the relatively small majority voting for Brexit I would think that among England's many constituencies there would

be a fair number of NO to leave the EU ones

MPs from those might survive

[jpinx]

8 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

with the relatively small majority voting for Brexit I would think that among England's many constituencies there would

be a fair number of NO to leave the EU ones

MPs from those might survive

Check out the referendum results analyised by constituency...

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-how-did-westminster-constituencies-vote-283c85cd20e1#.7adydjawv

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

 

[modafinil]

15 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

with the relatively small majority voting for Brexit I would think that among England's many constituencies there would

be a fair number of NO to leave the EU ones

MPs from those might survive

 

You make a good point, although even in "NO constituencies", a vote against Brexit could be seen as undemocratic. Only in cases where a large majority voted NO would an MP be relatively safe from retribution.

 

I expect Labour MPs with working class constituencies to be the most at risk. A vote against Brexit now would be seen as proof that their MP no longer represented their interests, and they would be eviscerated for their choice at the next election.

 

[modafinil]

25 minutes ago, jpinx said:

Check out the referendum results analyised by constituency...

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-how-did-westminster-constituencies-vote-283c85cd20e1#.7adydjawv

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

 

 

Interesting links, thanks.

 

 

The first two sentences of your first link provides some food for thought -

 

Quote

 

The EU referendum: how did Westminster constituencies vote?

tl;dr version: 421 out of 574 English and Welsh Westminster
constituencies probably voted to Leave

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dick dasterdly]

22 minutes ago, modafinil said:

 

You make a good point, although even in "NO constituencies", a vote against Brexit could be seen as undemocratic. Only in cases where a large majority voted NO would an MP be relatively safe from retribution.

 

I expect Labour MPs with working class constituencies to be the most at risk. A vote against Brexit now would be seen as proof that their MP no longer represented their interests, and they would be eviscerated for their choice at the next election.

 

I expect MPs in any constituency (regardless of political orientation) would be voted out if there was a strong 'leave' referendum result in that constituency - and their MP voted against allowing article 50 to be enacted!

[jpinx]

The referendum appears to have been deliberately planned in areas, not constituencies, because the projections showed that by constituency they'd lose hands down.

[melvinmelvin]

39 minutes ago, modafinil said:

 

You make a good point, although even in "NO constituencies", a vote against Brexit could be seen as undemocratic. Only in cases where a large majority voted NO would an MP be relatively safe from retribution.

 

I expect Labour MPs with working class constituencies to be the most at risk. A vote against Brexit now would be seen as proof that their MP no longer represented their interests, and they would be eviscerated for their choice at the next election.

 

 

what might "save" the MPs would be voter's notoriously? short memories

[jpinx]

2 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

what might "save" the MPs would be voter's notoriously? short memories

While that is usually true - this topic has been very high profile -- never off the front pages - so it's unlikely that voters would be "unaware"

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, modafinil said:

 

You make a good point, although even in "NO constituencies", a vote against Brexit could be seen as undemocratic. Only in cases where a large majority voted NO would an MP be relatively safe from retribution.

 

I expect Labour MPs with working class constituencies to be the most at risk. A vote against Brexit now would be seen as proof that their MP no longer represented their interests, and they would be eviscerated for their choice at the next election.

 

I have no doubt their MP would act in their best interest even if it was not what they voted for