Thian Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 hours ago, robblok said: They could be right..(though i don't believe it) But holding a large amount of cash while you have loans is crazy, so in that respect they are right. Just imagine you got 10.000 on your bank while you got a loan of 20.000 that your paying a lot on.. then lowering your bank account to 5000 and y our loan to 15.000 makes sense. So the explanation is ok. But to be sure of this you need to know how much the loans have mutated and the deficit of the countries budget. It all depends in what currency they have the loans and savings. The baht will drop one day so it's smart to be prepared for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mook23 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 hours ago, davehowden said: "But, he said, that depletion of 420 billion baht from the coffers was a healthy adjustment and meant the government was relying less on loans." Sorry, say that again for me !!! FARANG NO UNDAHSUHTAND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carstenp Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, rreddin said: It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of support. Now we know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were used to maintain the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable. Between 30th June 2014 and 31st January 2017 the international value of the USD in percentage terms has increased as these US Dollar Indices show: DTWEXM (22.96%), DTWEXB (23.15%), and DTWEXO (23.20%). The average of these indices is 23.10%. Whereas, the THB to USD exchange rate rose by only 8.15% over exactly the same period, which is slightly more than a third of the amount that the international value of the USD actually increased. That means, at least theoretically, the THB to USD rate should be 40 or above. I do agree with you on this one. Got this explanation from another place. They Guy is called JimboPSM He writes the follow. Quote While I have a few reservations caused by a lack of detail in the article, the fall in the reserves comes as absolutely no surprise as it helps to explain the divergence between the nominal USD/THB exchange rate and the international value of the USD when expressed through the US Dollar Index. This “latest” divergence became apparent at the beginning of July 2014 and continues today thus broadly fitting the timeline in the article. It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of intervention and/or support - we now know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were squandered maintaining the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable. While the following chart may appear overly complex, it clearly demonstrates the marked divergence between the nominal USD/THB exchange rate and the international value of the US Dollar. It shows just how much in percentage terms that the international value of the USD has increased since 30th June 2014 through US Dollar Indexes - DTWEXM (22.96%), DTWEXB (23.15%) & DTWEXO (23.20%). It also shows the relatively paltry 8.15% that the USD/THB exchange rate rose over exactly the same period – or only slightly more than a third of the amount that the international value of the USD actually increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deez Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Well, it costs money to fight corruption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lannig Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Naive question ahead: what's the point of artificially maintaining the THB exchange rate at a high level? Thailand has a positive export/import ratio, a lower THB would mean more exports and also more visitors. National pride set aside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Lannig said: Naive question ahead: what's the point of artificially maintaining the THB exchange rate at a high level? Gives more time to move cash abroad and then flee to greener pastures with the loot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maewang99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 (edited) Thailand's international reserves for December 2005... when teachers joined Sondhi.... concurrent with an effort.... yet again... to decentralize the schools and would have meant teachers losing their Civil Service status..... and benefits..... Thailand's internal reserves were 2.136 billion US dollars. today they are 6.272 billion US dollars. EC_XT_031. 3 times bigger. why do you think a haircut here still costs about $2? the Thai Bhat should be in the TEENS against a US dollar that post 1997 has and still has growing twin deficits.... even with Shale Gas! the BOT is the only bidder for the Baht.... but doesn't bid on the Baht.. it bids on US debt instead. and still does. Edited February 7, 2017 by maewang99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluespunk Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 hours ago, webfact said: The Finance Minister insisted Monday the military government is not running out of money despite having burned through most of the reserves in place when it seized power. Get a new finance minister then. Even the white lie guy didn't make statements as crass as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristheRunt Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Gives more time to move cash abroad and then flee to greener pastures with the loot? For every Thai's sake, lets hope that day comes soon, this country is going down the pan by the second. There will be hell to pay for the ruling elite when it does, I am sure there are escape plans firmly in place. I think I am correct in saying large parts of central London are Thai owned. Edited February 7, 2017 by MorristheRunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluespunk Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 hours ago, lemonjelly said: It's like just discovering that the guy you lent your car to for the weekend turned out to be a joyrider. As this car was stolen, I though the joy riding element was a given... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluespunk Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 hours ago, Naam said: ...and steam engines in Ferraris A Steam Punk Ferrari...man I would just love to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PETERTHEEATER Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 9 hours ago, davehowden said: "But, he said, that depletion of 420 billion baht from the coffers was a healthy adjustment and meant the government was relying less on loans." Sorry, say that again for me !!! It means that we spend all that we have got then apply for a really big loan..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemonjelly Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, Bluespunk said: As this car was stolen, I though the joy riding element was a given... Worst is, we're still in the bloody car whilst the driver is doing doughnuts outside the OHCHR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LannaGuy Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 (edited) 9 hours ago, Naam said: i can only shake my head when i read all these ignorant remarks from people who obviously mix up the country's reserves with the amount in government coffers. eat your heart out Thai bashers! well all of the rise was pre-junta and the dip started post-2014 and might be explained by exchange rates but the OP was talking about THB reserves That number piqued the curiosity of an economics lecturer at Kasetsart University, Decharut Sukkumnoed, who pointed out that Sansern’s figure was 420 billion baht less than there was when the military seized power, according to the government’s Fiscal Policy Office. “This does not include the fact the military government took a [744.2 billion] baht loan to compensate for deficits from September 2015 to December 2016,” Decharut wrote Edited February 7, 2017 by LannaGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonmoon Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Now we know why the junta stage the coup for. Dont give me the bs about returning happiness to the people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elgordo38 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 hours ago, chiang mai said: Really, which conspiracy theory did you have in mind. There are lots out there if he does not like one surely you can supply him with another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elgordo38 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, chiang mai said: You quoted something I didn't say, please remove it. Sorry to offend you never had to remove something. Please send instructions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, Moonmoon said: Now we know why the junta stage the coup for. Dont give me the bs about returning happiness to the people. Well what would you do if you gain control and see a coffer full of gold in your loot? Plunder it, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldSiamHand Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Well what would you do if you gain control and see a coffer full of gold in your loot? Plunder it, of course. Do you actually believe that? If so, then why didn't the country go "bankrupt" during previous coups? Lots to choose from, or is this one different? Really, is Naam the only other poster here who understands some of these very basic financial stats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 36 minutes ago, elgordo38 said: Sorry to offend you never had to remove something. Please send instructions. No problem, it's too late now anyway, post 90, that wasn't me - no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elgordo38 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, chiang mai said: No problem, it's too late now anyway, post 90, that wasn't me - no big deal. Sorry bro did not mean to upset up. Have a beer on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, OldSiamHand said: Do you actually believe that? If so, then why didn't the country go "bankrupt" during previous coups? Lots to choose from, or is this one different? Prior to 90's, nothing much to loot, and the 2006 one wasn't that long, although I'm sure lots of pillaging was going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morrobay Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 hours ago, rreddin said: It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of support. Now we know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were used to maintain the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable. Between 30th June 2014 and 31st January 2017 the international value of the USD in percentage terms has increased as these US Dollar Indices show: DTWEXM (22.96%), DTWEXB (23.15%), and DTWEXO (23.20%). The average of these indices is 23.10%. Whereas, the THB to USD exchange rate rose by only 8.15% over exactly the same period, which is slightly more than a third of the amount that the international value of the USD actually increased. That means, at least theoretically, the THB to USD rate should be 40 or above. A few here have asked for conspiracy evidence/example of baht overvaluation. Is the above good enough for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loh Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 hours ago, elgordo38 said: He is making Yingluck look like a piker. He can spend as much as he wants to the law cannot touch him thanks to his own clemency act. Funny that the general public found out about the massive decline in the treasury reserves from a slip by Sansern. The reserves can be drawn by a mere cabinet decision. So you absolutely right to say that they can spend as much as they want and is perfectly legal. Banks loan asked too much questions. Junta government don't like questions. So make sense they spend from the treasury reserves. The junta better keep their fingers crossed that no major calamities happen that need emergency funding which is the purpose of the reserves and certainly not off-setting loans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 hours ago, rreddin said: It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of support. Now we know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were used to maintain the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable. it is clearly apparent that you possess a wealth of no idea what the (essentially correct article) is about and that also applies to your claim "THB at a level that was not economically justifiable". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, morrobay said: 3 hours ago, rreddin said: It has been apparent for some time that the THB simply could not have sustained itself at the level that it was without some kind of support. Now we know, assuming the article is essentially correct, that the reserves were used to maintain the THB at a level that was not economically justifiable. Between 30th June 2014 and 31st January 2017 the international value of the USD in percentage terms has increased as these US Dollar Indices show: DTWEXM (22.96%), DTWEXB (23.15%), and DTWEXO (23.20%). The average of these indices is 23.10%. Whereas, the THB to USD exchange rate rose by only 8.15% over exactly the same period, which is slightly more than a third of the amount that the international value of the USD actually increased. That means, at least theoretically, the THB to USD rate should be 40 or above. A few here have asked for conspiracy evidence/example of baht overvaluation. Is the above good enough for you? no, it is not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eric Loh said: Funny that the general public found out about the massive decline in the treasury reserves from a slip by Sansern. The reserves can be drawn by a mere cabinet decision. So you absolutely right to say that they can spend as much as they want and is perfectly legal. Banks loan asked too much questions. Junta government don't like questions. So make sense they spend from the treasury reserves. The junta better keep their fingers crossed that no major calamities happen that need emergency funding which is the purpose of the reserves and certainly not off-setting loans. the junta is in power since end of may 2014. take a look at the graph and tell me how much of the reserves was spent since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 hours ago, carstenp said: I do agree with you on this one. Got this explanation from another place. They Guy is called JimboPSM He writes the follow. IF what you claim is true, that foreign currency reserves have been used to keep THB artificially strong, that would involve BOT selling THB and buying USD, consequently a massive depletion of THB would be seen - please point to it. AND, please also explain why, when exports are in decline, would BOT want a stronger currency which would further cripple exports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loh Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Naam said: the junta is in power since end of may 2014. take a look at the graph and tell me how much of the reserves was spent since then. I am sure you know the difference between the treasury reserves and the foreign (forex) reserves that you posted. The former is managed by the government while the latter is by the BOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chainarong Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Me and Thailand might just have something in common after all , zilch in the bank................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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