It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

[Rdrokit]

46 minutes ago, Coconut007 said:

It looks like it has less free land around the house than town houses in Sydney.

 

Thailand has pretty much unlimited supply of land, it always surprises me how everyone must squeeze to one spot like if they are in Monaco. 

Always been a city boy. Don't want the hassle of taking care of any land. We have 5 rai and I let my father-in-law farm the land. I don't want anything to do with it.

[Coconut007]

17 minutes ago, Rdrokit said:

Always been a city boy. Don't want the hassle of taking care of any land. We have 5 rai and I let my father-in-law farm the land. I don't want anything to do with it.

I'm no gardener as well, but if I would buy a house I wouldn't want to have neighbor's bed 15cm away from mine

[Rdrokit]

58 minutes ago, Coconut007 said:

I'm no gardener as well, but if I would buy a house I wouldn't want to have neighbor's bed 15cm away from mine

I wouldn't want 15cm either. I have 25 ft on one side and 40 feet on the other. Where do you live, in a condo with just a wall between neighbors. I have excellent neighbors. We look after each others houses when we are away. No renters here just good people with money. Not saying all people without money are not good but I have lived in some rented apartments and some of the renters I would not want for neighbors let alone watch my valuables.

[ExpatOilWorker]

The UBS global real estate bubble index report is out.

 

Bangkok is not included in the survey, but it should be easy to calculate the 2 key numbers for Bangkok.

 

1. The number of years a skilled service worker needs to work to be able to buy a 60m2 (650 sqft) flat near the city center

Assuming a salary of 50,000 baht/month and 150,000 baht/m2 the result is: 15 years

 

2. The number of years a flat of the same size needs to be rented to pay for the flat.

Same 150,000 baht/m2 may rent for 35,000 baht/month: 21.4 years

 

Both alarming high.

 

grebi-2018-global.pdf

[UKITF]

On 3/7/2018 at 2:48 PM, hugh mckee said:

yes i think they have to change the heading of this topic to "it's unofficial" as even more than 2 years on there has been no crash despite all the hopes/wishes/dreams of the sad, bitter, jealous posters on here.

 

to answer your question cheeryble, I have bought a condo in a brand new building and is 2 to 4 months away from completion, as of now they only have 2 foreign left and less than a handful of Thai quota and the prices quoted for resale market are 25% more than I paid last year, the few left with developer are selling at 30% more than I paid.

 

the bitter and jealous on here criticise anyone on here who buys instead of rents but really who'd rent if they can afford to buy and owning is their preference? from information I am hearing the numbers of Chinese now interested in investing in Pattaya has gone through the roof, sure buying property in Thailand is a gamble, buying anywhere is a gamble but this topic is all about a decline in Thailand's property market and is totally misleading, I personally am glad I found this topic after I'd bought my condo as i think I'd never have bought if I had, now I'm very glad I bought when I did, the longer I waited the more not less i would have paid and with many infrastructure projects planned Pattaya property is not likely to crash and is more likely to grow and with even more Chinese investors too maybe now is a good time to buy? of course i can't say that but I can say from my experience that I am very happy I bought when I did.

I've just read this thread from front to back.

 

What I can take from this is Mr McKee does not care about the value of his property.  He has bought what he wants and is an extremely happy man.  If his property is worthless in a few years he will not care as it is not an investment.

 

Fair do's Hugh.  Good on ya..

 

However your stance Hugh that anyone who rents is bitter is frankly laughable.  You didn't do terribly well out of UK property and that's fine.   I have thanks very much.  If it all falls out of bed in the UK I care not as long as I'm not underwater.

 

I have several investments in various asset classes and WOULD NOT GO NEAR A THAI CONDO IF YOU PAID ME!  Actually that's a fib but I wanted to convey how dodgy I see the Thai property market.  It's pure herd mentality driven by the characterless Chinese who are obsessed with buying any crappy little box and sitting on it leaving it empty.  You can't go wrong with bricks and mortar in their eyes.  In their communist hell hole they have ghost towns full of boxes all making free money month on month.  I mean what could possibly go wrong?!   

 

It's clear that Farang are considered epic idiots by the indigenous Thai's and also that Thai's like new "stuff".

 

Most punters like to know that if they need to get out of an asset it will sell for a given price.  You Hugh may be happy with your depreciating asset but 99.99% of punters will not be.   

 

The general rule is you buy appreciating and lease depreciating.  However money is not everyone's priority like your goodself.  This is not the norm Hugh.  Most people do not want to buy something of large value outright for it to depreciate.  Saying that save a car (almost all are leased today) that only leaves a property. 

 

Basically the whole market is greed driven by dodgy developers, stupid Farang and epic corruption.

 

I am certainly not jealous of you and have no bitterness.  I measure three times and cut once.  I will not be cutting in Thailand.

 

A Thai condo is certainly not an asset class I would get involved in.  I intend to rent.  The oversupply is outrageous.  

 

Renting in Thailand is clearly the way to live a sensible Farang life.  I have a gaf in the Med which I let out and it's providing me a decent return ta very much.  Likewise in the UK.

 

I do a lot of research before I buy anything.  Then I form an opinion.  I think you have dropped a proper testicle but that's just me.  

 

This thread has been a godsend.

 

Thanks!

 

 

 

 

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Can't buy in Bangkok. Even if I can put up with lousy maintenance where most condos look like ghetto in 10 years there is still an issue of residence and ever changing laws.

 

Risky.

[smutcakes]

11 hours ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

Can't buy in Bangkok. Even if I can put up with lousy maintenance where most condos look like ghetto in 10 years there is still an issue of residence and ever changing laws.

 

Risky.

Well that will be a relief to most who have bought.

[AtoZ]

On 12/30/2018 at 10:04 PM, UKITF said:

A Thai condo is certainly not an asset class I would get involved in.  I intend to rent.  The oversupply is outrageous.  

 

Renting in Thailand is clearly the way to live a sensible Farang life.  I have a gaf in the Med which I let out and it's providing me a decent return ta very much.  Likewise in the UK.

 

I do a lot of research before I buy anything.  Then I form an opinion.  I think you have dropped a proper testicle but that's just me.  

 

This thread has been a godsend.

 

Thanks!

Agree... I just posted in Hua Hin forum

 

2 bedroom condo in the building where I sometimes stay is about 6 million THB

 

I see a Thai owner advertise it for 20k a month rent - and not much luck with that. The monthly maintenance fee is 4k so IF she would theoretically got 100% occupancy and no other expense the break even point is 31 years away. In 31 years the condo gonna look like crap.

 

----

First condo I rented in Bangkok about 6 years ago was almost 7 million for 45 sq metre with rents 27+k

 

Today the same condo is selling for 5.8 million with rents 22+k

[UKITF]

1 hour ago, AtoZ said:

Agree... I just posted in Hua Hin forum

 

2 bedroom condo in the building where I sometimes stay is about 6 million THB

 

I see a Thai owner advertise it for 20k a month rent - and not much luck with that. The monthly maintenance fee is 4k so IF she would theoretically got 100% occupancy and no other expense the break even point is 31 years away. In 31 years the condo gonna look like crap.

 

----

First condo I rented in Bangkok about 6 years ago was almost 7 million for 45 sq metre with rents 27+k

 

Today the same condo is selling for 5.8 million with rents 22+k

The trouble is the Western/UK mindset.

 

Must own.  Must not pay rent.  Renting is dead money.  Must get involved in the FIAT ponzi fractional banking scam.  Fear of missing out (FOMA) is prevalent.  The whole thing is a huge stinking rip off con game.   The system needs new cretins to become debt slaves to keep the whole rotten thing grinding along.   Bring in 250,000 economic migrants to shore up demand etc.  Help to buy?!  More like help to be anally violated by the government.  Bastards!

 

Can't go wrong with bricks and mortar - blah blah blah

 

The housing market in both countries is hideously doctored by various unsavoury entities who have equally unsavoury VI's

 

The Thai market is singing from a different hymn sheet.   I do concede however we have a lot more integrity in the UK than in S/E Asia.  

 

So to repeat,   the Thai's view Farang as vermin to be utterly turned over.  As a culture they like new commodities/assets and are building poor quality residences with a finite lifespan.

 

Unless you are getting and eye watering deal no way should any Farang buy.

 

The risk is just to great.  Plus you can't sell it due to rampant oversupply.  Plus it's (generally) a depreciating asset.  I don't rate the Chinese as being terribly astute.  It's not very imaginative to buy up crappy boxes all round the globe and leave them empty. If they're doing it then I'll still well clear if you don't mind...  

 

Makes no sense at all IMPHO.   

[chrisandsu]

Better off just doing as most Thais do ... live in the thing until it falls down around your ears and then buy again . 

[Naam]

10 hours ago, UKITF said:

Unless you are getting and eye watering deal no way should any Farang buy.

because he can afford it. your blah-blah, e.g. "Must get involved in the FIAT ponzi fractional banking scam" is ridiculous.

[Number 6]

On 9/28/2018 at 6:33 PM, ExpatOilWorker said:

The UBS global real estate bubble index report is out.

 

Bangkok is not included in the survey, but it should be easy to calculate the 2 key numbers for Bangkok.

 

1. The number of years a skilled service worker needs to work to be able to buy a 60m2 (650 sqft) flat near the city center

Assuming a salary of 50,000 baht/month and 150,000 baht/m2 the result is: 15 years

 

2. The number of years a flat of the same size needs to be rented to pay for the flat.

Same 150,000 baht/m2 may rent for 35,000 baht/month: 21.4 years

 

Both alarming high.

 

grebi-2018-global.pdf

I believe it far worse

 

4000000 crap condo, not city center. 1.5km from BTS/MRT

 

26k per month income, 10k mortgage

 

400 payments NOT including interest

 

400/12 = basically 33.5 years. So...50 years with 6% interest.

 

Similar to the above calculation but in reality not many people making 50k pm. 

 

So there you have the unvarnished truth of the housing market. It's all black and gray money. 

 

The thing is as well, Bangkok might be a fun destination, but to live it's pretty crap. Not serious public transportation, broken busses. NO parks. Condo associations are rife with corruption. Phuket is the same or worse but add shonky land ownership issues.

 

Despite huge amounts of coastline, Thailand utterly lacks oceanview condos.

[Number 6]

The housing market IS softening. You can see more condos freeing up on bottom side as owners capitulate somewhat.

 

The issue imo why it all doesn't crash and burn is as follows:

 

1 People are not transient (like in US). Once in a condo, barring loss of job they need not ever move. They may a bad investment, it is their home. If they can get their price and get out, great. If not, they stay on. 

 

2 People not in such a horrible economic situation that banks are foreclosing.

 

3 Good foreclosures snapped up by insiders. No short selling

 

4 Black and gray money. The entire economy runs on it whether its an honest side business or the lowest form of govt corruption.

 

5 Foreigners literally with more money than sense - not that all purchases are bad and fararb a bunch of dopes. The valuations have not made sense since 1998 despite the petty fact you may have made a but of money on a resell or on paper your condo is worth more today than yesterday.

 

6 Absolute and total blackout on housing financial data. Army of media propagandists and cheerleaders.

[BritManToo]

27 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

The housing market IS softening.

Not so sure, I purchased my house (new) in CM for 1.8M 5 years back, the builders are now selling the identical house for 2.8M.

[BritManToo]

On 1/3/2019 at 7:36 PM, UKITF said:

The trouble is the Western/UK mindset.

It's actually a problem with native English speakers, Germans, Spanish and French mostly rent.

I believe Indian/Pakistan people are also really keen to own.

A survey tells a different story so maybe it's inexplicable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

[Rdrokit]

4 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Not so sure, I purchased my house (new) in CM for 1.8M 5 years back, the builders are now selling the identical house for 2.8M.

I think they are talking about the condo market. Especially in Bangkok. Bought my house in Korat 11 years ago for 1.8M and the same house is selling for 4M now.