Thai baht set to weaken

[oxo1947]

3 hours ago, IMA_FARANG said:

And, yes, a stronger U.S. dollar means a flow of speculative money out of Thailand and other Asian economies into a stronger U.S Dollar  is a possibility.

But that will not lower the THB will it IMA---if the reserve bank buy another currency & that currency does well --wont it just make the THB stronger as investors know it can be redeemed back into Thailand at more than it was brought for-when ever they want it to be.

[oxo1947]

5 hours ago, hawker9000 said:

I believe the Thai baht is a "managed" currency; managed by the central bank (BoT).  It's not "controlled" or pegged but neither does it float 100%.  It's somewhere in between those two extremes

So if someone like Warren Buffet wanted to buy say 50 million $USA  of THB --would he be told--Mai Dai ? how can they control investors wanting to get onto a currency that they think is a good investment ?

Edited March 9, 2017 by oxo1947

[elzach]

On 3/8/2017 at 11:42 PM, oxo1947 said:

So just for a financial dummy like me----(and quite happy to admit it)

 

Is the Thai baht Connected to the $USA....

Or is it the Hugh amount of tourism money flowing in that makes it so strong ?

How is it connected

How do they manipulate it to stay connected

what is the point of it being connected.

What is the point of having a very strong Baht.

 

The THB is a "managed" currency, as other pointed out, by the BOT.

 

All you need to look at, to understand that there's something fishy with the THB for over the last 12 months, is the following:

USD to Malaysian Ringgit: up 16.5% from its 52-week low

USD to Philippine Peso: up 19% from its 52-week low

USD to THB? up 4%.  Hmmm is the baht and the Thai economy so inherently strong?

No, the BOT has been busy buying up THB. Their foreign reserves are depleting. One reason is prestige/face, authoritarian regimes have a tendency to do that, plus of course holdings by key people retain their value. (I'm trying to be diplomatic). China is a prime example, from 2011 to 2014 the yuan gained about 11% on the USD, for no real economic reason. In just over the last 12-15 months, it has collapsed by 13% to the USD (this time for real economic reasons). The lesson is, you can only sustain your currency for so long, even if you're China. Imagine Thailand.

Edit: Another reason is of course incoming tourism, which at 10-15% of GDP, is nothing to sneeze at. And even though many here scorn Chinese tourism, the fact is, the Chinese fill all of those malls' shopping bags. When was the last time you saw farang tourists stocking up on Prada or Coach gifts?

Edited March 10, 2017 by elzach

[GOLDBUGGY]

On ‎3‎/‎9‎/‎2017 at 10:31 AM, oxo1947 said:

But that will not lower the THB will it IMA---if the reserve bank buy another currency & that currency does well --wont it just make the THB stronger as investors know it can be redeemed back into Thailand at more than it was brought for-when ever they want it to be.

There is some logic in what you are saying , but generally it doesn't work this way.

 

Perhaps the easiest way to look at this is if you consider a Country as being a Big Company, and its Currency it's Company Common Shares. If a Company does good, then so does it's Shares. So the same holds true with a Country and it's Currency.

 

A successful Company is one that shows continued Growth and Profit so the same holds true for a Country and its Currency. Someone mentioned China and its Currency increasing over a number of years for no apparent reason. This is not exactly true. During this period China's Growth Rate was in double digits, which for any Country is considered very high.

 

There are many ways to show a Profit in Business and this is true for a Country also. A Trade Surplus in which a Country Exports more products than it Imports, is one such indicator.  GDP Growth, Low Debt, and the Influx of Foreign Capital are others.

 

From time to time a Company may feel that their Share Price is too low, or they have far to much extra Cash, and may buy back some of it's Company Shares. Supply and Demand teaches us that with fewer Shares out there right now, the value of the remaining Shares should go up. But on poor Company performance, this does not always work and most times has very limited effect.

 

The same holds true with a Country and it's Currency. A Central Bank may feel their Currency is too low and buy some back using Foreign Money. They may also increase Interest Rates creating an artificial value on there Currency. The Federal Reserve Bank is about to do this, which generally causes a Higher US Dollar.

 

There is a great deal of Speculation when it comes to Foreign Currency, with Billions of Dollars changing hands daily. There is no one fix that fits all and everything here. As there are so many different factors that go into this. So the general rule is that if a Country is doing well, then so will its Currency.   

[nong38]

If it happens, amen!

Hope no one loses face!!!

[ratcatcher]

On 3/8/2017 at 3:02 PM, brain150 said:

Let's just wait and see what happens after the 15th of March !!!

Ah, March 15th,  the Ides of March. Many people know what happened in 44 BC to one Julius Caesar on that date. Has history the ability to repeat?

[Psimbo]

I got B35.21 to the USD off Kasikorn yesterday for a telex transfer. Happy with that.

 

I've been waiting for it to peep over 35 for a while now.

 

No doubt now I have made the transfer it will get even better- please don't thank me!

[Psimbo]

11 hours ago, elzach said:

The THB is a "managed" currency, as other pointed out, by the BOT.

 

All you need to look at, to understand that there's something fishy with the THB for over the last 12 months, is the following:

USD to Malaysian Ringgit: up 16.5% from its 52-week low

USD to Philippine Peso: up 19% from its 52-week low

USD to THB? up 4%.  Hmmm is the baht and the Thai economy so inherently strong?

No, the BOT has been busy buying up THB. Their foreign reserves are depleting. One reason is prestige/face, authoritarian regimes have a tendency to do that, plus of course holdings by key people retain their value. (I'm trying to be diplomatic). China is a prime example, from 2011 to 2014 the yuan gained about 11% on the USD, for no real economic reason. In just over the last 12-15 months, it has collapsed by 13% to the USD (this time for real economic reasons). The lesson is, you can only sustain your currency for so long, even if you're China. Imagine Thailand.

Edit: Another reason is of course incoming tourism, which at 10-15% of GDP, is nothing to sneeze at. And even though many here scorn Chinese tourism, the fact is, the Chinese fill all of those malls' shopping bags. When was the last time you saw farang tourists stocking up on Prada or Coach gifts?

I liked the 'logic the other week- 'if we have less reserves we have less we have to worry about managing'- classic.

[hawker9000]

So if someone like Warren Buffet wanted to buy say 50 million $USA  of THB --would he be told--Mai Dai ? how can they control investors wanting to get onto a currency that they think is a good investment ?

Lol. And why would Warren Buffet, or anybody else with his financial acumen, want to do that? Lol. But to answer your question, I expect the BoT could deal with it.

When I said "discourage speculators", that's in fact precisely what I meant (and, in part, what "managed currency" means). They can't prevent speculators from buying and selling outright, but they can spoil the fun with market interventions of their own - they can buy & sell, too. They can't buck a truly rising (or falling) tide, but they can effectively take the wind out of a few speculators' sails.

[simoh1490]

On 10/03/2017 at 11:07 AM, elzach said:

The THB is a "managed" currency, as other pointed out, by the BOT.

 

All you need to look at, to understand that there's something fishy with the THB for over the last 12 months, is the following:

USD to Malaysian Ringgit: up 16.5% from its 52-week low

USD to Philippine Peso: up 19% from its 52-week low

USD to THB? up 4%.  Hmmm is the baht and the Thai economy so inherently strong?

No, the BOT has been busy buying up THB. Their foreign reserves are depleting. One reason is prestige/face, authoritarian regimes have a tendency to do that, plus of course holdings by key people retain their value. (I'm trying to be diplomatic). China is a prime example, from 2011 to 2014 the yuan gained about 11% on the USD, for no real economic reason. In just over the last 12-15 months, it has collapsed by 13% to the USD (this time for real economic reasons). The lesson is, you can only sustain your currency for so long, even if you're China. Imagine Thailand.

Edit: Another reason is of course incoming tourism, which at 10-15% of GDP, is nothing to sneeze at. And even though many here scorn Chinese tourism, the fact is, the Chinese fill all of those malls' shopping bags. When was the last time you saw farang tourists stocking up on Prada or Coach gifts?

"the BOT has been busy buying up THB. Their foreign reserves are depleting".

 

You seem confused about the meaning of the word depleting, perhaps you intended to write, increasing!

 

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=94&language=eng

[simoh1490]

On 10/03/2017 at 11:07 AM, elzach said:

The THB is a "managed" currency, as other pointed out, by the BOT.

 

All you need to look at, to understand that there's something fishy with the THB for over the last 12 months, is the following:

USD to Malaysian Ringgit: up 16.5% from its 52-week low

USD to Philippine Peso: up 19% from its 52-week low

USD to THB? up 4%.  Hmmm is the baht and the Thai economy so inherently strong?

No, the BOT has been busy buying up THB. Their foreign reserves are depleting. One reason is prestige/face, authoritarian regimes have a tendency to do that, plus of course holdings by key people retain their value. (I'm trying to be diplomatic). China is a prime example, from 2011 to 2014 the yuan gained about 11% on the USD, for no real economic reason. In just over the last 12-15 months, it has collapsed by 13% to the USD (this time for real economic reasons). The lesson is, you can only sustain your currency for so long, even if you're China. Imagine Thailand.

Edit: Another reason is of course incoming tourism, which at 10-15% of GDP, is nothing to sneeze at. And even though many here scorn Chinese tourism, the fact is, the Chinese fill all of those malls' shopping bags. When was the last time you saw farang tourists stocking up on Prada or Coach gifts?

Thailand central bank operates what is known as a managed float, this means that THB is allowed to float freely according to market forces, BOT will however intervene in forex markets to smooth out currency volatility, particularly in relationship to USD, this in order to support onshore exporters. The second area where the central bank will intervene is to manage THB against a basket of AEAN currencies, this being a requirement of ASEAN membership - as regional currency swaps with local trading partners are established, the need for BOT's intervention will reduce.

[oxo1947]

3 hours ago, hawker9000 said:

Lol. And why would Warren Buffet, or anybody else with his financial acumen, want to do that? Lol. But to answer your question, I expect the BoT could deal with it

hawker9000 I don't have a great grasp of the financial system world wide---in fact friends often ask when I am about to bring money across , so they can do it a few days latter at a better rate--

But to your question-- why would "anybody else with his financial acumen, want to do that"? Soros (a man many people claim is a lot more astute than W.Buffet) done this, nearly sank Malaysia & Thailand--also Britain had a problem with his currency manipulation.

 

"A large part of Soros’ multibillion-dollar fortune has come from manipulating currencies.  During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad accused him of bringing down the nation’s currency through his trading activities, and in Thailand he was called an “economic war criminal.”  Known as “The Man who Broke the Bank of England,” Soros initiated a British financial crisis by dumping 10 billion sterling, forcing the devaluation of the currency and gaining a billion-dollar profit."

http://humanevents.com/2011/04/02/top-10-reasons-george-soros-is-dangerous/

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Does this sound familiar & could it be repeated--& where is my favourite Klingon when I need financial help --Soros 1997  (it is written by a Thai person--so English is not so great)

1. Thai baht was artificially too strong compared to economic fundamental. We had bubble burst in stock and real estate markets and high external debts with economic slowdown and capital outflow

2. But bank of thailand (BOT) kept Baht pegged to dollar under the fixed exchange rate regime. whenever the Baht is too weak, it will sell dollar reserve and buy baht so baht value remained stable at 25 baht per dollar.

3. Soros knows this situation couldn't sustain as cuurency value didn't match economic situation.

4. Soros borrow, say, 25 million baht and convert to 1 million dollar at fixed exchange rate. (25 baht per dollar)

5. BOT kept selling dollar to soros until it empty dollar reserve, meaning it can't intervene in FX market to keep baht value fixed anymore

6. So, it had to let go fixed exchange rate regime and let the Baht value float according to demand and supply.

7. Baht weakened to 50 baht per dollar as nobody wanted baht

8. Soros sold 0.5 million dollar for 25 million baht and repay Baht loan. He kept another 0.5 million dollar for himself.

https://www.quora.com/How-did-George-Soros-attack-Thai-baht-in-1997-Asian-crisis

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2017 by oxo1947

[elzach]

2 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

"the BOT has been busy buying up THB. Their foreign reserves are depleting".

 

You seem confused about the meaning of the word depleting, perhaps you intended to write, increasing!

 

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=94&language=eng

 

They are not "depleting", but they sure as heck are "spending" them, to sustain the baht.

 

For someone so "adept" at BOT dealings (and with 3 posts total at Thaivisa, if I may add), you included a link to 1-month figures? Let's analyze the situation more in depth, shall we?

 

Using the link you provided at BOT, I came up with these figures (at month mid-point):

March '13: $178 billion

March '14: $168 billion

March '15: $152 billion

March '16: $170 billion

March '17: $181 billion

 

The above may seem not bad at all, till we look at the Tourist Receipts over the same period:

 

 

 

These are USD on the right. In 2016 Thailand earned $71.5 billion (!) in tourist receipts:

http://www.voanews.com/a/ap-record-32-million-foreign-tourists-visit-thailand-in-2016/3699721.html

 

A big chunk of that should have been added to the foreign exchange reserves every year. Where is that money going?? Over the last 5 years Thailand made over $260 billion in tourist receipts alone. But, over that same period, foreign reserves added only $3 billion.  You must be kidding.

 

He's a better reflection of Thailand's economy:

In other words, going nowhere. The currency should have been reflecting that. But the Bank of Thailand is "managing" it all right.

Edited March 12, 2017 by elzach

[simoh1490]

5 hours ago, elzach said:

 

They are not "depleting", but they sure as heck are "spending" them, to sustain the baht.

 

For someone so "adept" at BOT dealings (and with 3 posts total at Thaivisa, if I may add), you included a link to 1-month figures? Let's analyze the situation more in depth, shall we?

 

Using the link you provided at BOT, I came up with these figures (at month mid-point):

March '13: $178 billion

March '14: $168 billion

March '15: $152 billion

March '16: $170 billion

March '17: $181 billion

 

The above may seem not bad at all, till we look at the Tourist Receipts over the same period:

 

 

 

These are USD on the right. In 2016 Thailand earned $71.5 billion (!) in tourist receipts:

http://www.voanews.com/a/ap-record-32-million-foreign-tourists-visit-thailand-in-2016/3699721.html

 

A big chunk of that should have been added to the foreign exchange reserves every year. Where is that money going?? Over the last 5 years Thailand made over $260 billion in tourist receipts alone. But, over that same period, foreign reserves added only $3 billion.  You must be kidding.

 

He's a better reflection of Thailand's economy:

In other words, going nowhere. The currency should have been reflecting that. But the Bank of Thailand is "managing" it all right.

 

By all means feel free to adjust the dates in the link provided to review a period of greater than one month!

 

There is no direct correlation between the level of BOT foreign currency reserves and Tourist Receipts, neither is there a direct relationship between the level of those  reserves and Foreign Direct Investment. That is because Thailand is an export driven economy whereby only a very small percentage of export bills are settled in THB, the remainder are settled in a range of foreign currencies but mostly USD which accounts for 61% of all export bills. If you really wanted to try and estimate the extent of possible market intervention by BOT on the Thai currency, you would need to come up with a pretty sophisticated matrix which measures average tourist foreign currency receipts, plus the value of export bills paid in foreign currency, less import bills settled in currencies other than THB (think imported oil), plus capital inflows, less capital outflows and then repeat that process for twelve months to determine an average rate of increase, an almost impossible task! An easier and more practical way in which to evaluate the level of BOT foreign currency reserves is to look at the start and end values, one year apart, doing that reveals they have grown by USD 12 billion over the past year.

 

The Thai currency strengthens solely because it is purchased against USD, that happens when export bills are settled and exporters exchange their USD for THB, it also happens when capital inflows invest in the SET etc and when tourists exchange USD for THB - THB is weakened when the reverse takes place and the difference between the two actions determines whether THB strengthens or weakens. For BOT to purposely weaken the currency they would need to sell THB and buy USD, that would have the effect of increasing BOT's foreign currency reserves abnormally, not depleting them!

 

Lastly, BOT has been relaxing foreign currency controls by allowing exporters to retain foreign currency earnings whereas previously they were required to convert them into THB quite quickly, they are now allowed to hang on to that foreign currency and invest it both at home and overseas and that has an impact on the rate at which central bank foreign currency reserves grow.

 

 

[anon4546543]

Please continue the debate. I have no idea what either of you are saying and sometimes I suspect neither do you. I think the original post suggests that the rise in the US dollar rate may cause the TB to weaken against it. Perhaps you could try to respond to that claim.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed. 

[the donger]

On 08/03/2017 at 9:05 AM, CharlieH said:

Anything is better than a negative slide as Brits have seen around a 20% loss since the Brexit decision.

 

As a british man getting paid in Arab riyals, I think the sterling crash is fantastic. 

[poohy]

We can only hope it weakens by 20% or more to compensate for the GBP loss and with that i will turn my adblock back on. 

.

[simoh1490]

There will probably be some further capital outflows resulting from the US Fed hike in base rates but I suspect much of that has already taken place, as people sell THB investments in say Thai bonds or the SET and repatriate those funds into USD, THB is likely to weaken to some lesser degree. But the SET continues to offer good value as does the local bond market, remember that interest rates here are still higher than in the US so I suspect we're noway near the tipping point which makes overseas investors believe the Thai market no longer offers good value. And since USD/THB trades historically in a fairly wide range of between 29 and 36, I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 36.5 or thereabouts but not much more.

 

GBP/THB is a different story however since GBP is also on a downward path which is likely to balance against THB value and result in little change to the forex rate of that pair - I would look for the pair to trade between 40 and 45, based on what happens with Brexit and trade related issues that impact SE Asia.

[hawker9000]

17 hours ago, oxo1947 said:

hawker9000 I don't have a great grasp of the financial system world wide---in fact friends often ask when I am about to bring money across , so they can do it a few days latter at a better rate--

But to your question-- why would "anybody else with his financial acumen, want to do that"? Soros (a man many people claim is a lot more astute than W.Buffet) done this, nearly sank Malaysia & Thailand--also Britain had a problem with his currency manipulation.

 

"A large part of Soros’ multibillion-dollar fortune has come from manipulating currencies.  During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad accused him of bringing down the nation’s currency through his trading activities, and in Thailand he was called an “economic war criminal.”  Known as “The Man who Broke the Bank of England,” Soros initiated a British financial crisis by dumping 10 billion sterling, forcing the devaluation of the currency and gaining a billion-dollar profit."

http://humanevents.com/2011/04/02/top-10-reasons-george-soros-is-dangerous/

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Does this sound familiar & could it be repeated--& where is my favourite Klingon when I need financial help --Soros 1997  (it is written by a Thai person--so English is not so great)

1. Thai baht was artificially too strong compared to economic fundamental. We had bubble burst in stock and real estate markets and high external debts with economic slowdown and capital outflow

2. But bank of thailand (BOT) kept Baht pegged to dollar under the fixed exchange rate regime. whenever the Baht is too weak, it will sell dollar reserve and buy baht so baht value remained stable at 25 baht per dollar.

3. Soros knows this situation couldn't sustain as cuurency value didn't match economic situation.

4. Soros borrow, say, 25 million baht and convert to 1 million dollar at fixed exchange rate. (25 baht per dollar)

5. BOT kept selling dollar to soros until it empty dollar reserve, meaning it can't intervene in FX market to keep baht value fixed anymore

6. So, it had to let go fixed exchange rate regime and let the Baht value float according to demand and supply.

7. Baht weakened to 50 baht per dollar as nobody wanted baht

8. Soros sold 0.5 million dollar for 25 million baht and repay Baht loan. He kept another 0.5 million dollar for himself.

https://www.quora.com/How-did-George-Soros-attack-Thai-baht-in-1997-Asian-crisis

 

 

 

You're right. And even now, 20 years later (!) if someone(s) with the power of Soros & Buffett set out with a determination to sink the Baht, they can probably do some damage, at least in the short term.  But I don't really think they have Thailand and the baht in their sights at the moment.  Do you?  Generally, I expect the damage they would do would be more to other traders rather than anything long-lasting to Thailand's currency, unless the BoT gets careless.  I didn't say the BoT's power to control the currency market was unlimited.  I distinctly included a qualifier as a matter-of-fact.   The baht is not "pegged to the dollar" - though I'm sure the BoT maintains a moving target range outside of which extra scrutiny and interventions start taking place.  Just look at a chart - it's obviously not "pegged", I don't care who says it.  But it is "managed".  Just like I said.  And if the BoT, for whatever reason, applies an unrealistic value to the baht, the rising and falling tides I specifically mentioned will overwhelm their efforts.  I don't think they very often get unhorsed.  So, if you're just looking for an argument, look somewhere else.  I was merely trying to describe the "managed float" level of BoT protocol. 

[simoh1490]

Some inputs/points:

 

One of the many reasons why the 1997 crisis was indefensible include the fact the foreign currency reserves were tied up in long dated instruments and not readily available, that situation does not exist today.

 

BOT does not apply a rate to the value of THB, the market does that, hence the word "float" in the phrase, managed float. Where BOT management of the float(ing rate) comes in is when the exchange rate moves too far too quickly, BOT acts to smooth out that excess volatility, as it does to ensure the exchange rate stays within a required range of ASEAN currencies. 

 

BOT's ability (and willingness) to implement or withdraw exchange controls significantly reduces the likelihood of an external attack on THB being successful, it's also easy to forget that THB is not a freely convertible currency that can be exported at will.

 

Soros was certainly a beneficiary of the 1997 Asian crisis in Thailand but whether or not he engineered the crisis is speculation, other Western hedge funds made far larger bets. The economic crisis in Thailand came about because of the volume of onshore loans denominated in USD, it didn't come about by outsiders holding large amount of THB offshore and selling it to weaken the currency (short selling and discounted futures did play a role). The real cause of the 1997 Baht crash was the behaviour of BOT in response to the problem, subsequent structural changes to BOT and its operating procedures have all but eliminated the likelihood of that fiasco being repeated.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-george-soros-broke-the-bank-of-thailand-2016-9

 

 

 

 

[bazza73]

On 3/8/2017 at 10:17 PM, GOLDBUGGY said:

No! I don't think so!

 

The US Dollar should remain strong, pending any horrific news. It may even get stronger if the interest rates go up again, and like recently. Which many analysis expect in the near term. With good economical news there isn't much standing in it's way to go higher.

Trump won't be able to increase spending on the military and walls etc. without debasing the currency further. The "good economic news" is just smoke and mirrors. If the Chinese, Russians etc. decide to call America's trillions of debt and scrap the dollar as a reserve currency, it will be like the emperor with no clothes. Why are the Chinese buying all the gold they can lay their hands on?

[GOLDBUGGY]

2 hours ago, bazza73 said:

Trump won't be able to increase spending on the military and walls etc. without debasing the currency further. The "good economic news" is just smoke and mirrors. If the Chinese, Russians etc. decide to call America's trillions of debt and scrap the dollar as a reserve currency, it will be like the emperor with no clothes. Why are the Chinese buying all the gold they can lay their hands on?

Yeah! I Know! I have been hearing this same story for 30 years now, but perhaps with a we bit of a different twist as time goes by. It goes like this!

 

China dumps all of its US Currency they are holding, sending the Dollar down to near zero. Gold Prices then jump to $5,000 an ounce and Silver to $500 an ounce. The US slips into a deep recession where people in the US become poorer than Africa.  

 

So then, my question to you is, "Why hasn't this happened yet?". The Original Gold Bugs who have been holding Gold since the 80's at $800 and ounce are still waiting for this Dooms Day Prediction to come true. So if it does happen it better hurray as they are in their 70's and 80's by now.

 

Could one reason be that if China did start to dump their held US Currency, which could possibly cause the US Dollar to take a big dive, that the remaining Billions of US Dollars they held, would also become worthless to? By selling US Dollars, that would be like shooting oneself in the foot.

 

And No! China is not buying all the Gold they can get their hands on! The Gold Market is very small compared to the Currency Market. If China really was buying all the Gold they could get their hands on with the Billions of US Dollars they hold, you would see $5,000 for an ounce of Gold, and even much higher than that. As they would need to buy up all the Gold and the next 10 year or more supply of Gold.

 

But the Chinese and like most Asians like to hold Gold more than Westerners do. Why is that? Well for one thing, and if you don't have much faith in your government or currency, owning Gold is a good insurance policy. Since Gold is traded in US Dollars you will always have a stash of US Dollars and even when you don't own the currency.

 

Of course also having faith that the US Dollar is more stable than your currency. But what if the US Dollars isn't stable, so then what happens? The value of the Gold you own goes up! So even then if you lose on your Currency against the US Dollar, you gain it back through the appreciation of the current Gold Price. A pretty good insurance policy I think when you gain both ways.

 

Just consider what would have happened if you were Russian and you bought Gold  before the Russian Ruble Crashed. Would you not have been better off? Even more recently the GBP with BREX! You would not have lost that 20% in value had one done that first. You would have gained 20% more GBP when you sold your Gold and bought that GBP back. I am not a Gold Bug but Gold does have its place and especially in places like China.

 

The United States still has an excellent credit rating! They do not have any trouble whatsoever selling their Treasury Bills. They will have no trouble at all raising the money they need if Trump decides to spend that on pet projects. Of this I am sure!  The Market knows this to. The US Dollars is still a safe and strong currency, and why it is high today compared to most others.  

 

 

[simoh1490]

One flaw in that strategy might be trying to find a buyer for USD 3 trillion of US assets, there's probably only China that could manage it.

[The Dark Lord]

On 08/03/2017 at 3:02 PM, brain150 said:

Let's just wait and see what happens after the 15th of March !!!

16th maybe? (bTW that's my birthday)

[Rc2702]

Did I miss something as I was waiting till the 15th and do not see a change?

[overherebc]

On 08/03/2017 at 0:16 PM, overherebc said:

Great news. I just lined to my wife to get one extra Beer with the shopping.

Or am I being a bit rash?

Decided I was being rash so changed to one more beer every two months.

[matta330]

2 hours ago, Rc2702 said:

Did I miss something as I was waiting till the 15th and do not see a change?

The rate went over 35 for four days this past week and then went right back down.

[Rc2702]

Just now, matta330 said:

The rate went over 35 for four days this past week and then went right back down.

You joking me right? Seriously I'm looking for 39 baht to the $ 

[anon4546543]

Sigh, the weaker Thai baht did not happen, nor will it do so.