Condo prices in Bangkok’s outer areas to be stable in 2017, survey indicates

[Jonathan Fairfield]

Condo prices in Bangkok’s outer areas to be stable in 2017, survey indicates

 

CONDOMINIUM prices in the peripheral areas of Bangkok will remain stable this year, while prices for condos in the CBD and city fringe will increase slightly due to the limited new supply, according to a survey by Knight Frank Thailand.

 

New condominium units in the city fringe will compete with old condominium units in well-maintained buildings in the CBD since the price of newly built units in the city fringe will be higher than for old units in the CBD, Frank Khan, executive director and head of residential, Knight Frank Thailand, said on Monday.

 

He added that the Bangkok condominium market in 2016 continued to grow at a slower pace than in 2015 due to the Thai economic slowdown.

 

The supply from the peripheral Bangkok areas dominated the market with total launches making up about 76 per cent of the total supply in 2016. This is due to the development of the mass transit extension route to the suburban areas of

 

Bangkok. Many developers have launched projects along the new mass transit route in these areas due to the availability of land at reasonable prices.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/breakingnews/30310427

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-03-27

[Destiny1990]

These surveys do usually not indicate anything.

[trogers]

This survey probably relied on the list prices of developer's. Stable as a printed piece of paper.

 

While the real world is chugging along with free add-ons and price discounts...

Edited March 28, 2017 by trogers

[11223344]

I need an iPhone and a car, but ain't going pay for it!!! Luckily I can snap a condo and get the iPhone & car for free... donut deal 

[elgordo38]

I would not take one for free in Bangkok well hold on yes I would what is the resale market like. 

[elgordo38]

3 hours ago, trogers said:

This survey probably relied on the list prices of developer's. Stable as a printed piece of paper.

 

While the real world is chugging along with free add-ons and price discounts...

the problem is trogers that they can go as low as words like steady but they cannot slip down into negative territory. Verboten. 

[whoareyou]

This simply won't do. Not good enough. Renters want to see the complete destruction of thai real estate..
While strangely enough the rest of asia is doing just fine... Go figure.

[trogers]

1 hour ago, whoareyou said:

This simply won't do. Not good enough. Renters want to see the complete destruction of thai real estate..
While strangely enough the rest of asia is doing just fine... Go figure.

Really the rest of Asia is doing fine? Why then would the Singapore govt raise duties and taxes and borrowing restrictions on residential properties?

 

Prices there have fallen more than 10% instead of climbing 15% over a period of 2-3 years...

 

Perhaps their govt see things as 'not fine' and is trying to avoid bad household debts and NPLs.

[whoareyou]

Really the rest of Asia is doing fine? Why then would the Singapore govt raise duties and taxes and borrowing restrictions on residential properties?

 

Prices there have fallen more than 10% instead of climbing 15% over a period of 2-3 years...

 

Perhaps their govt see things as 'not fine' and is trying to avoid bad household debts and NPLs.

Should have mentioned minus Hong Kong and Singapore, I seriously didn't think anyone would draw that comparison . They obviously peaked years ago.. Avoid them completely, only a fool would buy top of the market anywhere

 

[trogers]

3 hours ago, whoareyou said:

Should have mentioned minus Hong Kong and Singapore, I seriously didn't think anyone would draw that comparison . They obviously peaked years ago.. Avoid them completely, only a fool would buy top of the market anywhere

 

And what measure do you use to identify the peak of a cycle, if not rental yield?

[ExpatOilWorker]

From another news source: "Only 26,595 condominium units were sold in 2016, decreasing by 59% compared with 2015, when approximately 64,170 units were sold." 

 

[whoareyou]

And what measure do you use to identify the peak of a cycle, if not rental yield?

I thought you knew you can not use rental yield in emerging markets. Rental yield can stagnate untill it catches up with exploding prices such as is the case in desirable areas in BKK. Rental yield is far better suited to mature markets like Singapore where its shown to have peaked.
Time to get off that merry go round.

[trogers]

16 minutes ago, whoareyou said:

I thought you knew you can not use rental yield in emerging markets. Rental yield can stagnate untill it catches up with exploding prices such as is the case in desirable areas in BKK. Rental yield is far better suited to mature markets like Singapore where its shown to have peaked.
Time to get off that merry go round.

And why not?

 

Those units left empty but facing monthly mortgage bills are to be specially excluded for consideration because it is an emerging market?

[whoareyou]

Just saying rental yield is a handy back of the envelope calculation.. If you trade the markets you will know exactly what I'm talking about when it comes to gouging the value of a company. Mature Company value and share price can be easily calculated but emerging companies can not!


Same in emerging real estate markets.

Rental yield will never accurately reflect booming markets like lower Sukhumvit bangkok. It's moving way to fast.

Nobody is going to boot a tenant because of a sharp price spike also in reverse during a bubble burst.

Emerging markets take time to stabilize

[trogers]

3 minutes ago, whoareyou said:

Just saying rental yield is a handy back of the envelope calculation.. If you trade the markets you will know exactly what I'm talking about when it comes to gouging the value of a company. Mature Company value and share price can be easily calculated but emerging companies can not!


Same in emerging real estate markets.

Rental yield will never accurately reflect booming markets like lower Sukhumvit bangkok. It's moving way to fast.

Nobody is going to boot a tenant because of a sharp price spike also in reverse during a bubble burst.

Emerging markets take time to stabilize
 

You cannot equate companies to condo units, using the analogy of dividend vs growth.

 

A condo unit cannot grow bigger, and it is fixed in location and operations cannot be outsourced.

[whoareyou]

You cannot equate companies to condo units, using the analogy of dividend vs growth.

 

A condo unit cannot grow bigger, and it is fixed in location and operations cannot be outsourced.

Yes but mature vs emerging is tough. I wasn't trying to cross promote formulas, just draw attention to emerging anything.

 

IMO it's going to take 5 years of stability in BKK condo prices to gauge true rental yield.

 

At the moment the spikes need to stabilize. Give it a few years

 

[trogers]

18 minutes ago, whoareyou said:

Yes but mature vs emerging is tough. I wasn't trying to cross promote formulas, just draw attention to emerging anything.

 

IMO it's going to take 5 years of stability in BKK condo prices to gauge true rental yield.

 

At the moment the spikes need to stabilize. Give it a few years

 

The spikes are due to the ease of getting credit for housing loans.

 

Singapore used regulations to rein in the banks. Thai banks have been tightening credit themselves since the late 2015.

 

That's why developers were crying last year about the 50% to 70% rejection rates on mortgage applications.

 

They eased their own QC on the financial standing of people booking their units in the hope of bragging how well the sales figures they can attained.

 

Only one public-listed developer abstained from this self-delusion - Raimon Land.

Edited March 28, 2017 by trogers

[whoareyou]

The spikes are due to the ease of getting credit for housing loans.
 
Singapore used regulations to rein in the banks. Thai banks have been tightening credit themselves since the late 2015.
 
That's why developers were crying last year about the 50% to 70% rejection rates on mortgage applications.
 
They eased their own QC on the financial standing of people booking their units in the hope of bragging how well the sales figures they can attained.
 
Only one public-listed developer abstained from this self-delusion - Raimon Land.

I'm sorry have I missed something? I just had a look at your posts and it appears that you have 6 condos in bangkok or claim to is that true?

Your extremely heavily vested but for the life of me I can not find a single positive post regarding bangkok real estate in fact every single post is talking it down


No offense but there is clearly something off with you and I believe your not a true representation of your holdings.
Sorry but you no longer hold any cred.

Amazing what a little digging can achieve.

Just wasted an hour I will never get back ugghhh

[whoareyou]

The spikes are due to the ease of getting credit for housing loans.
 
Singapore used regulations to rein in the banks. Thai banks have been tightening credit themselves since the late 2015.
 
That's why developers were crying last year about the 50% to 70% rejection rates on mortgage applications.
 
They eased their own QC on the financial standing of people booking their units in the hope of bragging how well the sales figures they can attained.
 
Only one public-listed developer abstained from this self-delusion - Raimon Land.

I'm sorry have I missed something? I just had a look at your posts and it appears that you have 6 condos in bangkok or claim to is that true?

Your extremely heavily vested but for the life of me I can not find a single positive post regarding bangkok real estate in fact every single post is talking it down


No offense but there is clearly something off with you and I believe your not a true representation of your holdings.
Sorry but you no longer hold any cred.

Amazing what a little digging can achieve.

Just wasted an hour I will never get back ugghhh

[whoareyou]

The spikes are due to the ease of getting credit for housing loans.
 
Singapore used regulations to rein in the banks. Thai banks have been tightening credit themselves since the late 2015.
 
That's why developers were crying last year about the 50% to 70% rejection rates on mortgage applications.
 
They eased their own QC on the financial standing of people booking their units in the hope of bragging how well the sales figures they can attained.
 
Only one public-listed developer abstained from this self-delusion - Raimon Land.

I'm sorry have I missed something? I just had a look at your posts and it appears that you have 6 condos in bangkok or claim to is that true?

Your extremely heavily vested but for the life of me I can not find a single positive post regarding bangkok real estate in fact every single post is talking it down


No offense but there is clearly something off with you and I believe your not a true representation of your holdings.
Sorry but you no longer hold any cred.

Amazing what a little digging can achieve.

Just wasted an hour I will never get back ugghhh

[trogers]

1 hour ago, whoareyou said:

I'm sorry have I missed something? I just had a look at your posts and it appears that you have 6 condos in bangkok or claim to is that true?

Your extremely heavily vested but for the life of me I can not find a single positive post regarding bangkok real estate in fact every single post is talking it down


No offense but there is clearly something off with you and I believe your not a true representation of your holdings.
Sorry but you no longer hold any cred.

Amazing what a little digging can achieve.

Just wasted an hour I will never get back ugghhh

My holdings were all acquired in 2007-8 and they are all old condo units built in the '80s and '90s. Five units excluding my home.

 

I don't speculate on the short term. I buy low and keep them at least a decade and reap the rental income. I would only start to sell them progressively, probably 5-6 years from now.

 

Rental yield and long term tenants are my priority, and not what is this quarter's price per sqm.

 

 

 

[whoareyou]

My holdings were all acquired in 2007-8 and they are all old condo units built in the '80s and '90s. Five units excluding my home.
 
I don't speculate on the short term. I buy low and keep them at least a decade and reap the rental income. I would only start to sell them progressively, probably 5-6 years from now.
 
Rental yield and long term tenants are my priority, and not what is this quarter's price per sqm.
 
 
 

And further more you have literally thousands of posts, everyone one smacking thai real estate including bangkok, Phuket and Pattaya.

In fact your nearly always the first to respond on nearly all threads with scathing appraisals.

And all this while claiming to be a big time landlord.

Mr Rogers.. Puleez, it's pathetic you think we are silly enough to buy it.

How did you think pretending to have skin in the game lent your bearish posts more weight

How Bizarre!

[trogers]

5 hours ago, whoareyou said:

And further more you have literally thousands of posts, everyone one smacking thai real estate including bangkok, Phuket and Pattaya.

In fact your nearly always the first to respond on nearly all threads with scathing appraisals.

And all this while claiming to be a big time landlord.

Mr Rogers.. Puleez, it's pathetic you think we are silly enough to buy it.

How did you think pretending to have skin in the game lent your bearish posts more weight

How Bizarre!

What game? Or perhaps it's all a game to brokers hunting for their commissions. For many buyers, it's a lifetime of debt.

 

Get their timing wrong in purchasing a shoebox and they would face a large liability for a decade or more - low rental yield if any, rising debt interest rate, and a market of huge oversupply.