Canadian real estate bubble bursts.

[whoareyou]

Gotta feel sad for Canadians, not only has the bubble burst but rents have been hit hard especially with the currency getting smashed against the baht.

 

What will Canadians in Thailand do now?

 

 

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/the-housing-bubble-has-burst-economist-warns-market-imbalances-threat-to-economy-in-long-run

[whoareyou]

"The report notes that Vancouver home sales have plummeted 40 per cent over the last 12 months and despite mortgage rates remaining very low, house prices are also beginning to drop."

[jmhogan]

I have not read that article but guessing it is just one market.  I was in the Real Estate market in Canada and the area I use to specialize in is on fire with houses selling way over the list and NO It is not the GTA.  They are adding the 407 to more areas etc.  The market may be busting up in one area but there are still many hot pockets in the Country.  YES the dollar sucks vs the Baht.  It is trickled down for years against the Baht.

 

Once again Rentals in a lot of areas are very hard to come by now.  

The bank of Canada has just changed the qualification rules which might stifle things a little bit but otherwise most of the country is very healthy.

[whoareyou]

Both Australia and Canada share almost a mirror image regarding OVERCOOKED RE sector and getting crushed against the BAHT.

Puts those relying on rental income in LOS in a precarious position.

[lovelomsak]

What a load of crap. Anyone who knows the Vancouver  market knows this is normal. About every 8 years sales fall off. But the prices do not drop. No burst bubble. Wait 2 years and the houses will be selling and going up in price as the ink dries. 

  I owned 3 houses on Vancouver Island. Some years would have had a hard time to give away.But the years I sold them there was a bidding war in my living room well over asking price to buy them. 

 The article says nothing about prices going down.

[whoareyou]

What a load of crap. Anyone who knows the Vancouver  market knows this is normal. About every 8 years sales fall off. But the prices do not drop. No burst bubble. Wait 2 years and the houses will be selling and going up in price as the ink dries. 
  I owned 3 houses on Vancouver Island. Some years would have had a hard time to give away.But the years I sold them there was a bidding war in my living room well over asking price to buy them. 
 The article says nothing about prices going down.

" The article says nothing about prices going down"

Look harder
Second post [emoji30]

[lovelomsak]

16 hours ago, whoareyou said:

 

 

 

" The article says nothing about prices going down"

Look harder
Second post

 

 

 

 Sorry found it. but no mention of how much or high priced ones or low end or whole market still crap

 

I should also mention that historically when Vancouver cools Toronto heats. But Toronto cools quicker so look for 2 or 3 years for Toronto then Vancouver booms again

 

Edited March 29, 2017 by lovelomsak

[whoareyou]

Hopefully the Canadians are smarter than their USA neighbors

When the writing was on the wall, most USA expats didn't even notice, way to busy talking down the thai RE sector.

Then bam!! The bottom fell out.. Sub prime crises 2008

Over 100k USA expats repatriated.. No choice

Canadians have a strong recent model of what not to do. Better to sell before the domino effect.

IMO Of course [emoji5]

[lovelomsak]

On 3/29/2017 at 10:36 AM, whoareyou said:

Hopefully the Canadians are smarter than their USA neighbors

When the writing was on the wall, most USA expats didn't even notice, way to busy talking down the thai RE sector.

Then bam!! The bottom fell out.. Sub prime crises 2008

Over 100k USA expats repatriated.. No choice

Canadians have a strong recent model of what not to do. Better to sell before the domino effect.

IMO Of course

What happened in the USA in2008 was about banking. The vehicle the banks used was house mortgages yes but the problem laid in banking irregularities. Canada has far better banks and this problem cannot arise as it did in the USA.

  Watch the movie  The Big Short you will understand what happened there.

[whoareyou]

What happened in the USA in2008 was about banking. The vehicle the banks used was house mortgages yes but the problem laid in banking irregularities. Canada has far better banks and this problem cannot arise as it did in the USA.
  Watch the movie  The Big Short you will understand what happened there.

Obviously that's why I called it subprime crisis

However call it what you like a bubble is a bubble.

If it was so obvious why didn't anyone see it coming?

Canada of course is not a sub prime issue nor did I suggest it.

However there is overwhelming proof that real estate is way overcooked.. A bubble.

No way would I stick my head in the sand on this one

[lovelomsak]

People did see it coming and got rich off it. The average guy on the street with nothing to loss because he had nothing saw an opportunity to get into housing.It was unsubstainable financing unethical bank practices that was the problem. Mortgage loans that can be honored  will never be an issue. All that happens is people  who buy pay more and pay longer. 

 All the mortgage money now will be investing in Ontario. The growth there will be a feeding frenzy. But short.  Then a big sell off and the cash profit moves west to Calgary and mostly Vancouver as cash.for investing.

[daveAustin]

On 3/29/2017 at 7:14 PM, whoareyou said:

"The report notes that Vancouver home sales have plummeted 40 per cent over the last 12 months and despite mortgage rates remaining very low, house prices are also beginning to drop."

Something that desperately needs to happen in the UK, especially rentals, just ridiculous. With the influx of the euro millions over the last few years though, it ain't gonna change anytime soon. Not enough digs to go around.

[whoareyou]

Something that desperately needs to happen in the UK, especially rentals, just ridiculous. With the influx of the euro millions over the last few years though, it ain't gonna change anytime soon. Not enough digs to go around.

It will. It only takes one overcooked bubble to hit the mainstream media before there is a knock on effect

it's to late for Canadians to dump and run unfortunately, they Already on the downside of the charts in a big way.

Australians have had a mass of warnings by government departments saying the real estate bubble is going to burst.. Not when but how soon

The UK will follow and rents will collapse.

USA will be spared , their market is still trashed from the sub prime crises.

Hopefully the Canadians will not stick their heads in the sand like the yanks did.

So many Americans lost everything and forced back home.. That was truly a sad time, it's devastating when your rental income is gone and can no longer support your family here. Hopefully the Canadians are not so stupid [emoji22]

Sent from my Redmi Note 3 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[midas]

On 3/29/2017 at 8:48 PM, lovelomsak said:

What a load of crap. Anyone who knows the Vancouver  market knows this is normal. About every 8 years sales fall off. But the prices do not drop. No burst bubble. Wait 2 years and the houses will be selling and going up in price as the ink dries. 

  I owned 3 houses on Vancouver Island. Some years would have had a hard time to give away.But the years I sold them there was a bidding war in my living room well over asking price to buy them. 

 The article says nothing about prices going down.

Either you are a profound wishful thinker or you are astonishingly naive please explain how property values can keep going up when people's salaries haven't budged for decades. You ain't seen nothing yet

 

Fears of a 'massive' global property price fall amid 'dangerous' conditions and market slow-down

 

Quote

Ms Mann said a “number of countries”, including Canada and Sweden, had “very high” commercial and residential property prices that were “not consistent with a stable real estate market”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/02/fears-massive-global-property-price-crash-amid-dangerous-conditions/

[lovelomsak]

18 hours ago, midas said:

Either you are a profound wishful thinker or you are astonishingly naive please explain how property values can keep going up when people's salaries haven't budged for decades. You ain't seen nothing yet

 

Fears of a 'massive' global property price fall amid 'dangerous' conditions and market slow-down

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/02/fears-massive-global-property-price-crash-amid-dangerous-conditions/

Ok a quick answer.  House ownership will become a privilege of the rich and established in centers such as Vancouver. The dream of ever owning will be gone for most people.Middle class has sold themselves out. Buyers will need real money to buy in or buy up. The day of easy mortgages are history.

  People will not be able to move up as fast, and equity grow in property will grow slower in entry levels but will grow. Highend will be its own market with no control of sale prices,it will be what the buyer will pay. No discounts just the longer you wait the more you pay.

  As said the dream of home ownership will be gone for many people. And is as you stated salaries unable to support buying a home. The buyers will still be there but they will be money smart people with investments. Many young people in Canada have been well tutored on investing. Their non real investments shall generate house money. Everthing from downpayment to income to service loan   

  The easy ride on real estate may end but it willnot crash or burst. People will simply have to work harder to be a home owner.

  The bubble burst is the naive dream of nanny state minds who cannot get into the market and need a miracle to save them. 
   There will be the Haves and the Havenots.

[pegman]

On March 30, 2017 at 5:09 AM, whoareyou said:

Obviously that's why I called it subprime crisis

However call it what you like a bubble is a bubble.

If it was so obvious why didn't anyone see it coming?

Canada of course is not a sub prime issue nor did I suggest it.

However there is overwhelming proof that real estate is way overcooked.. A bubble.

No way would I stick my head in the sand on this one

Is it a bubble in NYC OR SanFran? No, because of the demand which is exactly what is happening in Vancouver and Toronto. Sales fell in Vancouver in reaction to a tax the province introduced on foreign buyers. So it had the desired effect and not because of a bubble but because homes were becoming unaffordable to locals. Those markets are running out of land. In Toronto because of green belt regulations and Vancouver because of geography.

[Nowisee]

The Chinese took their new found wealth out of their country, against the governments demand, went into BC and bought everything in site, some times sight unseen.  Huge number of unoccupied places.  Making Vancouver one of the highest priced housing markets. That place is sucked dry... they moved down to Seattle.  Buying $1m places with cash.  Making Seattle one of the highest priced housing markets.  Where's the next big hit coming to?

[lovelomsak]

19 hours ago, Nowisee said:

The Chinese took their new found wealth out of their country, against the governments demand, went into BC and bought everything in site, some times sight unseen.  Huge number of unoccupied places.  Making Vancouver one of the highest priced housing markets. That place is sucked dry... they moved down to Seattle.  Buying $1m places with cash.  Making Seattle one of the highest priced housing markets.  Where's the next big hit coming to?

Calgary is getting a lot. My niece emailed this week said they are buying up the neighbourhood she is in. Paying cash 2 to 4 million a house  tearing them down and building monster boxes no archtecture value at all.She said there is dust and noise all day from the demolishing and building. 2 sold very close to her house and she hates it.She lives in beautiful area large properties perfectly maintained and now it is starting to look like Korea.box building.

[BigKahuna]

Prices going down is no big deal. Do people expect non stop growth? Every market has dips. Property is a 30 year investment. Rich people love these dips as they can buy more and more.

[jerojero]

There is no bubble burst, yet. Vancouver has slowed a frantic market because of recent surtax on foreigners who buy high-end homes. That is all. General market in Vancouver and Toronto areas still red hot.

 

 

[KhonKaenKowboy]

On 3/30/2017 at 0:36 AM, whoareyou said:

Hopefully the Canadians are smarter than their USA neighbors

When the writing was on the wall, most USA expats didn't even notice, way to busy talking down the thai RE sector.

Then bam!! The bottom fell out.. Sub prime crises 2008

Over 100k USA expats repatriated.. No choice

Canadians have a strong recent model of what not to do. Better to sell before the domino effect.

IMO Of course

Yes, I repatriated in 2008 after selling my house in Chiang Mai, and bout a condo in Summerlin , a TH in Phoenix and an SFR in Phoenix..all three for 75,400 total.  Two of the sellers were Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse...so apparently they couldn't see the train wreck coming...about 300,000 in write downs on the three for them.  

Three percent down is dumber than giving kindergartners handguns.