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Gbp-thai Baht

LaoPo
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andy1308 Silver Member

andy1308

Posted
Posted (edited)

I don't claim to know anything about the markets, but one minute it's down 3.5 per cent on the day and then it's up 0.15 per cent. It's look interesting for sure but I have no idea what it means, and why the swings are so dramatic right now?

Now it is at 69.42.

Edited by andy1308
LaoPo Star Member

LaoPo

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

The swings in % are quite heavy indeed....speculations...71.67750 now...

LaoPo

Edited by LaoPo
LaoPo Star Member

LaoPo

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

can someone explain what iis happening and why ?

I have no other explanation that traders in 'London' are speculating quite heavily since the difference is high, GBP versus Thai Baht (+/- 3.5%).

Why? maybe because of the vulnarability (but too strong) of the Thai Baht and the 'situation' the BoT/Government created since past Monday/Tuesday.

It wouldn't surprise me if the BoT/Government would decide over the (Christmas)-weekend to lower the interest rate on the Thai Baht in order to calm down the situation and thus lower the Baht, which would be better for exports.

But it's just staring in a chrystal ball from my side.

Merry Christmas :o

PS:

"Do you think this might be a problem with the data being supplied to the BBC, as opposed to actual fluctuations?"

Let me look at other data and come back to you.

Update:

This is realtime in NY, US$ versus Thai Baht (ao) but it's about 09.00 AM in New York now. There's not much happening with the Baht overthere.

So I'm still puzzled why the GBP - Thai Baht is fluctuating so much. :D

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes_exotic.htm

LaoPo

Edited by LaoPo
bendix Platinum Member

bendix

Posted
Posted

can someone explain what iis happening and why ?

Don't quote me on this, but i suspect Topfield is exploiting his Nationwide BS account to get that 10 satang better rate. He's probably putting his holiday money in and out, squeezing those extra satang out.

lannarebirth Star Member

lannarebirth

Posted
Posted

Just a hunch, but I would guess some large players with significant exposure to the baht are hedging their currency risk in the futures market. It's a much more illiquid market than Forex and sometimes the tail wags the dog for a short period of time.

taxexile Diamond Member

taxexile

Posted
Posted
Don't quote me on this, but i suspect Topfield is exploiting his Nationwide BS account to get that 10 satang better rate. He's probably putting his holiday money in and out, squeezing those extra satang out.

:o

nev Gold Member

nev

Posted
Posted (edited)

maybe it could just be mr taxin drawing money out of the bank and putting back in again.

i have a friend here in australia who trades currency he tried to explain to me how it works, something about pips and you watch and track, think it is like gambling not for me i go long term on investments.

so maybe in england there are a lot of currency trades tracking the baht, just buying and selling.

Edited by nev
bkkandrew Silver Member

bkkandrew

Posted
Posted

It is the end of year positions being cleared up. Most traders don't bother between Christmas and New Year, so today is the day to unwind bad positions and settle trades that need to look good for year-end. Nothing to worry about...

Although showing at 4% down (GBP - THB), I would expect this to settle back to 71.5 during the holiday and early in the new year...

One the point about data feed, I believe that the BBC has an unusual policy of basketing trades to post a behind-time number. This can be skewed by the above situation.

Chill, and Merry Christmas!

andy1308 Silver Member

andy1308

Posted
Posted

The end of the fluctuations fits with the time that everyone in London packed up for Christmas - around lunchtime on Friday UK time. I know it only takes a small amount of large transactions to make the market move, but these must have been huge amounts to cause such wild variations .. am I right ?

taxexile Diamond Member

taxexile

Posted
Posted
Live mid-market rates as of 2006.12.22 23:55:17 UTC. Refreshes once per minute.

1.00 GBP

United Kingdom Pounds = 71.1988 THB

Thailand Baht

1 GBP = 71.1988 THB 1 THB = 0.0140452 GBP

Bring this window to front with every refresh | Start over?

How to Bookmark | How to Link | Free Rates by E-Mail | Tell a Friend

New! XE.com

Forex Speculation.

another site gives the rate as 71.1988 , whilst the bbc site is still showing 69.something.

both sites have not changed in the past 30 mins.

do the money markets close down for xmas?

LaoPo Star Member

LaoPo

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Live mid-market rates as of 2006.12.22 23:55:17 UTC. Refreshes once per minute.

1.00 GBP

United Kingdom Pounds = 71.1988 THB

Thailand Baht

1 GBP = 71.1988 THB 1 THB = 0.0140452 GBP

Bring this window to front with every refresh | Start over?

How to Bookmark | How to Link | Free Rates by E-Mail | Tell a Friend

New! XE.com

Forex Speculation.

another site gives the rate as 71.1988 , whilst the bbc site is still showing 69.something.

both sites have not changed in the past 30 mins.

do the money markets close down for xmas?

I suppose all major money markets are closed and certainly for Xmas but I still see some movements in some currencies, although minor.

Like here:

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes_exotic.htm exotic currencies - Real-Time

and:

http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm major currencies - Real-Time

There must be some private traders around the world (Japan is active a bit now) still 'playing'.

LaoPo

Khun Bob Gold Member

Khun Bob

Posted
Posted

You can get 15min delayed data on advfn.com - also you can get graphs without registering

On advfn i saw trades going through at 69 approx (with bid and offer at around 69) and at 71 approx (with bid and offer at around 71) - not seen this at all before

No one on here seems to know why so far (yes theory, fact no) and there is no news i have seen to explain why too.

I want to move some euros to baht and may do a small trade to find the price.

The bot hari-kari was not a complete u-turn - there were still some elements enforced - could this difference in trading be as a result of it ?

Anyone got any suggestions on how to keep GBP or EUR tied to appreciation (or devaluation - bale out before...) THB, without direct exposure to THB ? I have seen suggestions of gold and off-shore THB...

bkkandrew Silver Member

bkkandrew

Posted
Posted
You can get 15min delayed data on advfn.com - also you can get graphs without registering

On advfn i saw trades going through at 69 approx (with bid and offer at around 69) and at 71 approx (with bid and offer at around 71) - not seen this at all before

No one on here seems to know why so far (yes theory, fact no) and there is no news i have seen to explain why too.

I want to move some euros to baht and may do a small trade to find the price.

The bot hari-kari was not a complete u-turn - there were still some elements enforced - could this difference in trading be as a result of it ?

Anyone got any suggestions on how to keep GBP or EUR tied to appreciation (or devaluation - bale out before...) THB, without direct exposure to THB ? I have seen suggestions of gold and off-shore THB...

Quite agree with you. FX is a central part of my job and the situation makes no sense at all.

Surmise that the current 4% variance quoted will only be dealt with by the Japanese market opening in a few hours, but may wait until London opens on the 27th... In the mean time I am laying low and drinking/eating too much :o

bkkandrew Silver Member

bkkandrew

Posted
Posted

Just lack of liquidity in the market with London (over 60% of Forex trades worldwide) operating on skeleton staff, ditto NY, the second biggest market.

Spreads will normalise 2nd Jan... :o

LaoPo Star Member

LaoPo

Posted
  • Author
Posted

You could be right but the Thai Baht is the only currency right now (past few days/week) which has a lot of unrest.....

between 1.4 and 3.5% jumping, especially with th GBP but not so much against the $ and Euro.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...78/intraday.stm

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...78/intraday.stm

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/...78/intraday.stm

GBP, US$ and Euro respectively.

LP

  • 2 weeks later...
Khun Bob Gold Member

Khun Bob

Posted
Posted

There appears to be 2 rates - and I wonder if this is as a result of the bot changes in december

Has any body been buying baht recently - what did you buy with and what price did you get for THB ? Also what were the peak and trough prices at the time of the trade as has been shown several times in graphs on this thread ?

Cheers

topfield Silver Member

topfield

Posted
Posted
There appears to be 2 rates - and I wonder if this is as a result of the bot changes in december

Has any body been buying baht recently - what did you buy with and what price did you get for THB ? Also what were the peak and trough prices at the time of the trade as has been shown several times in graphs on this thread ?

Cheers

As you can see from my recent postings (threads) there are in fact three parallel rates.

The offshore baht as quoted on numerous websites, the onshore baht ( quotes available only to Thai based dealers and over the phone from Super Rich ) and the Nationwide rate for UK expats which you can get at any time by making a trial small ATM withdrawal with your N/W card here in Thailand.

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