May expects tough talks; EU alarmed at Brexit "illusions"

[webfact]

May expects tough talks; EU alarmed at Brexit "illusions"

By William James and Alastair Macdonald

REUTERS

 

   

Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May and Tim Farron, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, attend the BBC's Marr Show in London, Britain April 30, 2017. Jeff Overs/BBC Handout via REUTERS

 

LONDON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa May expects divorce talks with the European Union to be tough, she said on Sunday after EU leaders agreed stiff terms and voiced alarm at "illusions" in London that may wreck a deal.

 

"What this shows, and what some of the other comments we've seen coming from European leaders shows, is that there are going to be times when these negotiations are going to be tough," May told the BBC a day after her EU peers agreed on demands they want met to avoid chaos when Britain leaves the bloc in 2019.

 

At Saturday's Brussels summit of the 27 other EU states, EU chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker accused unnamed pro-Brexit figures of underestimating the complexity of the task and German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeated her concern that London still harboured "illusions" about negotiating a quick free-trade pact.

 

May, who has called an election for June 8 in the hope of strengthening her position, repeated her insistence that no deal would be better than a bad deal -- a position many in Brussels view as bluff, arguing that the legal void that would dawn on March 30, 2019, would hurt Britain much more than the others.

 

But Juncker, quoted on Sunday by Germany's FAS newspaper, highlighted growing fears that the two sides are talking past each other, raising a significant risk of negotiations collapsing.

 

"I’m leaving Downing Street 10 times more sceptical than I was before," the Frankfurt paper quoted the European Commission president as saying after he and chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier met May in London over dinner on Wednesday.

 

Juncker had arrived hefting two weighty EU treaties -- last year's 1,600-page CETA free-trade pact with Canada and the 2012 EU accession of the bloc's newest member, Croatia (population 4.2 million). They were props to convince May of the complexity of unwinding 46 years of EU membership and keeping trade open.

 

So alarmed was he at what he said on Saturday were British officials who "underestimate the technical difficulties" that he alerted Merkel, the EU's main power broker, in an early morning call to Berlin on Thursday. She then used a speech in parliament to warn against British "illusions" that it could retain much of the benefits of EU membership after Brexit.

 

READY OR NOT?

 

Brussels is also concerned about the level of preparedness in London for talks that are due to start after the June 8 vote and which Barnier says need to be essentially wound up within 16 months to ensure ratification ahead of Brexit in March 2019.

 

Barnier briefed leaders on his concerns, Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern told reporters.

 

"The Commission and Barnier ... have really done their homework well," Kern said. "One can say that the British have not done so with the same intensity."

 

EU officials said they were still unsure who would conduct the negotiations with Barnier's team, saying that May had told Juncker that she herself would be in charge.

 

That, EU officials said, left it unclear who would actually be taking the many decisions required during months of day-in, day-out talks in Brussels over the coming two years. British Brexit Secretary David Davis has been expected to take a lead.

 

Asked about her insistence that no deal would be better than a bad one, May told ITV television: "I wouldn't have said it if I didn't believe that."

 

She added: "With the right strong hand in negotiations, we can get a good deal for the UK."

 

May, who came to power after Britons decided last year to leave the EU, called the election to win a public mandate and a bigger majority to help to execute her plan to leave the EU's single market and pursue a free-trade deal with the bloc.

 

EU leaders took only minutes to approve a negotiating mandate for Barnier that includes a readiness to walk away from a deal and emphasises the unity of the 27 as an absolute priority.

 

The Belgian prime minister warned colleagues against falling into a "trap" set by British negotiators trying to divide them, while others cautioned May that it was in Britain's interests, too, to avoid that, since a disunited 27 might mean no deal.

 

Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny, however, struck a note of realism when he conceded that Saturday's harmonious mood would not survive in the long run.

 

"When the negotiations start and detailed, more complex discussions have to take place, obviously some countries will assign bigger priorities to different issues," Kenny said.

 

"So," he added with a smile of understatement, "it won't all be as calm and as measured as today."

 

(Editing by Elizabeth Piper and David Goodman)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-05-01

[darksidedog]

The UK stands a good chance of a reasonable deal. They only have one set of interests to worry about, their own. The other 27 countries are where the complications will set in. They will have multiple different agendas, some of which will be supported by the majority and some not. Any disunity will allow the UK to reap advantages.

[mfd101]

Depends on your definition of 'reasonable' (which, in the hands of the pollies, is likely to be a moveable feast): 30% worse than the current position? 45% worse? 60% worse? ...

[almodeller]

Since the UK imports considerably more goods from the EU  I would have thought it was more in the EU interests to help trade deals and not vice-versa

[gamini]

Why do the pro brexits posters on this forum continually disbelieve or rubbish any negative reports?. Many of them come from  neutral and reliable sources. Why don't they just accept the fact that they can't have everything. They wanted to leave the EU and they have to accept the consequences. Britain will be poorer off by 26%. That is a conservative figure.

[Naam]

6 minutes ago, almodeller said:

Since the UK imports considerably more goods from the EU  I would have thought it was more in the EU interests to help trade deals and not vice-versa

that is correct and that's why the belligerent talks from some EU politicians should be taken not only with a grain but with a pound of salt. the same applies to the Brexit side which has to achieve a certain success. and the latter is impossible without making concessions.

 

unfortunately we will experience for quite some time a disgusting situation. after all the actors on the stage are politicians. and we all know what to expect from politicians, don't we? a wise man once said "politicians are not born, they are excreted!"

[rufanuf]

Id like the UK to actually assess the economic damage of NO DEAL (ie WTO terms of trade) and simply not negotiate. The EU Elite need a rocket up their arse, and despite any economic hardships sovereignty has to be the main priority of any sensible British Citizen with an understanding of Europes history. Europe has never "Done" true democracy, which is why they don't understand British concerns and why they have a history of warring with each other and their neighbours.

[mfd101]

43 minutes ago, gamini said:

Why do the pro brexits posters on this forum continually disbelieve or rubbish any negative reports?. Many of them come from  neutral and reliable sources. Why don't they just accept the fact that they can't have everything.

Because they don't want to accept that they have made, collectively, the most stupid and dismal decision of their whole lives. And, whatever the evolution out in the real world over the next 3, 5, 10 and 20 years, they'll still go to their graves muttering about how they were 'betrayed' by those horrid horrid politicians that they themselves voted for ...

[LammyTS1]

1 hour ago, mfd101 said:

Because they don't want to accept that they have made, collectively, the most stupid and dismal decision of their whole lives. And, whatever the evolution out in the real world over the next 3, 5, 10 and 20 years, they'll still go to their graves muttering about how they were 'betrayed' by those horrid horrid politicians that they themselves voted for ...

Here, grab a tissue....

 

There is a long way to go and it's correct that there shall be tough talks. Nobody expected anything else but most will hopefully see the benefits for the UK. 

Edited May 1, 2017 by LammyTS1

[happy Joe]

1 hour ago, rufanuf said:

Id like the UK to actually assess the economic damage of NO DEAL (ie WTO terms of trade) and simply not negotiate. The EU Elite need a rocket up their arse, and despite any economic hardships sovereignty has to be the main priority of any sensible British Citizen with an understanding of Europes history. Europe has never "Done" true democracy, which is why they don't understand British concerns and why they have a history of warring with each other and their neighbours.

Like many here, you are making offensive remarks against Europe without the slightest understanding of the case.

The EU accused the loss of part of the British imports as a logical consequence of the Brexit. This movement is legitimate and has already begun.

Opposite, Europe wants to recover the fruitful slot of financial services held by London almost all. (Several tens of billions each year).
However, without any agreement, these banking services will have to be moved (Frankfort, Milan Paris or Dublin ...)

May is fighting to keep this market.

Barnier fights to take it back to him by putting unbearable conditions. He has with him all the states of the EU starting with Germany. Note that Lloyd's and other has already set up offices in Frankfurt.

That is why we are going to witness a dialogue of the deaf for a few months to culminate in a complete divorce where everyone will take back all his marbles.

This is perfectly logical on both sides and in no way requires the insulting words you write with some of your compatriots.

[phutoie2]

Juncker is having a tizzy, phoning Merks before breakfast. Its just dawning on him that the islanders negotiating plans are written on the back of a fag packet.

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, gamini said:

Why do the pro brexits posters on this forum continually disbelieve or rubbish any negative reports?. Many of them come from  neutral and reliable sources. Why don't they just accept the fact that they can't have everything. They wanted to leave the EU and they have to accept the consequences. Britain will be poorer off by 26%. That is a conservative figure.

I wish I had your crystal ball to predict, with such certainty, the eventual outcome .

[dick dasterdly]

1 hour ago, mfd101 said:

Because they don't want to accept that they have made, collectively, the most stupid and dismal decision of their whole lives. And, whatever the evolution out in the real world over the next 3, 5, 10 and 20 years, they'll still go to their graves muttering about how they were 'betrayed' by those horrid horrid politicians that they themselves voted for ...

Unlikely, bearing in mind the populace know they have been betrayed by politicians for decades.

 

Nonetheless, they continue plodding on - without "going  to their graves muttering about how they were 'betrayed' by those horrid horrid politicians that they themselves voted for".

 

Most realise that politicians are not to be trusted, and continue with their lives - as they don't have the same 'drive' for power.

[elgordo38]

2 hours ago, gamini said:

Why do the pro brexits posters on this forum continually disbelieve or rubbish any negative reports?. Many of them come from  neutral and reliable sources. Why don't they just accept the fact that they can't have everything. They wanted to leave the EU and they have to accept the consequences. Britain will be poorer off by 26%. That is a conservative figure.

Wow with facts and figures like this you should consider running in the present election. No better or worse than the present horses in the race I suspect. Just hope unlike Greece you voted for change only to have your leader accept more shackles and chains in the end. The EU is also looking to take Thesesa May for a short trip behind the woodshed to keep the other EU'ers in line. Some are frothing at the mouth. 

[chang1]

43 minutes ago, phutoie2 said:

Juncker is having a tizzy, phoning Merks before breakfast. Its just dawning on him that the islanders negotiating plans are written on the back of a fag packet.

The tizzy is because France is about to vote and could soon have a referendum that would mean the end of the EU who's negotiating plans are on 27 conflicting fag packets. 

Edited May 1, 2017 by chang1

[elgordo38]

I think Macron the magician will weave a blanket of warmth around French voters while sharpening his knives to be used against labor after the election behind his back. The way voters are voting for their own destruction is alarming. I think as the song goes we are living on the eve of destruction. 

[rufanuf]

1 hour ago, happy Joe said:

Like many here, you are making offensive remarks against Europe without the slightest understanding of the case.

The EU accused the loss of part of the British imports as a logical consequence of the Brexit. This movement is legitimate and has already begun.

Opposite, Europe wants to recover the fruitful slot of financial services held by London almost all. (Several tens of billions each year).
However, without any agreement, these banking services will have to be moved (Frankfort, Milan Paris or Dublin ...)

May is fighting to keep this market.

Barnier fights to take it back to him by putting unbearable conditions. He has with him all the states of the EU starting with Germany. Note that Lloyd's and other has already set up offices in Frankfurt.

That is why we are going to witness a dialogue of the deaf for a few months to culminate in a complete divorce where everyone will take back all his marbles.

This is perfectly logical on both sides and in no way requires the insulting words you write with some of your compatriots.

There is nothing insulting about stating facts my friend.

[chang1]

In a recent BBC interview Macron is threatening Frexit if the EU is not reformed. The rocket has been lit and is causing a few <deleted> to tingle already.

 

[Baerboxer]

7 hours ago, darksidedog said:

The UK stands a good chance of a reasonable deal. They only have one set of interests to worry about, their own. The other 27 countries are where the complications will set in. They will have multiple different agendas, some of which will be supported by the majority and some not. Any disunity will allow the UK to reap advantages.

 

Yes in principle. The reality is Merkel calls the shots and Juncker obeys. He telephoned her. Not the French, Italians, Dutch, Belgians, Spanish etc etc. 

 

The EU has started cracking down on the Hungarian PM and make comments warning Poland. As talks progress expect to see Germany controlling and promoting German interests, as always, with the EU used to bring other different opinions in line. Macron, for all his bluster and promises, is really Hollande's protege and will tow the line should he win as expected.

 

Some in Germany see this as pay back time although of course they're playing as if otherwise.

[dick dasterdly]

38 minutes ago, chang1 said:

In a recent BBC interview Macron is threatening Frexit if the EU is not reformed. The rocket has been lit and is causing a few <deleted> to tingle already.

 

Do you have a link?

 

I'm sceptical as the EU had every opportunity to reform itself as a result of the brexit result.

 

Instead,  it preferred to change nothing - and rely on fear tactics to keep other countries in line - which should have been un-necessary if the population of other countries were happy with the EU.

[ilostmypassword]

3 hours ago, gamini said:

Why do the pro brexits posters on this forum continually disbelieve or rubbish any negative reports?. Many of them come from  neutral and reliable sources. Why don't they just accept the fact that they can't have everything. They wanted to leave the EU and they have to accept the consequences. Britain will be poorer off by 26%. That is a conservative figure.

Do you mean 26 percent less growth than otherwise or an actual decline of 26 percent. The former is in line with what most economists think. The latter is completely out of whack with any prediction I've seen.

[mfd101]

47 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Yes in principle. The reality is Merkel calls the shots and Juncker obeys. He telephoned her. Not the French, Italians, Dutch, Belgians, Spanish etc etc. 

 

The EU has started cracking down on the Hungarian PM and make comments warning Poland. As talks progress expect to see Germany controlling and promoting German interests, as always, with the EU used to bring other different opinions in line. Macron, for all his bluster and promises, is really Hollande's protege and will tow the line should he win as expected.

 

Some in Germany see this as pay back time although of course they're playing as if otherwise.

Golly, it sounds like 1939 all over again. Where are you, Winston? Your people need you yet again as we face our Second Finest Hour!

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, phutoie2 said:

Juncker is having a tizzy, phoning Merks before breakfast. Its just dawning on him that the islanders negotiating plans are written on the back of a fag packet.

A fag packet ? That big ! More like vapours from the beery / fag smelling breath of Nigel Farige - pausing for thought before fiddling his EU expenses and texting his mistress. The con man has called - count your spoons.

 

This is a good article about the delusions held by our leaders stumbling hapless into a growing hurricane, oblivious to the dangers.

 

The UK’s eventual exit from the EU is looking more and more likely to be a train wreck. The Brexiteers in Prime Minister Theresa May’s administration are living in a fantasy world. And although May herself comes across as sensible and pragmatic, it now appears that she is as deluded as they are.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/04/30/the-uk-government-is-completely-deluded-about-brexit/#4c8abdb14f04

[mfd101]

Poor Teresa. And facing a veritable tide of Junkers, on the beaches, on the landing grounds, in the fields and in the streets.

[Naam]

5 hours ago, rufanuf said:

Europe has never "Done" true democracy, which is why they don't understand British concerns and why they have a history of warring with each other and their neighbours.

correct me if i'm wrong but rumour has it that the last war a European nation has fought was the Falkland war

[Naam]

3 hours ago, chang1 said:

The tizzy is because France is about to vote and could soon have a referendum that would mean the end of the EU who's negotiating plans are on 27 conflicting fag packets. 

[ilostmypassword]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

correct me if i'm wrong but rumour has it that the last war a European nation has fought was the Falkland war

2nd iraq war actually. And i do forgive you.

 

[johnnyonesock]

Theresa May is in the pocket of the "globalists" and will not be negotiating on behalf of the British people..she will have her orders and number 1 is to continue to have open borders so that the dregs of Europe and the 3rd world can continue to destroy the British culture and way of life...divide and rule is what its all about

[dunroaming]

9 hours ago, gamini said:

Why do the pro brexits posters on this forum continually disbelieve or rubbish any negative reports?. Many of them come from  neutral and reliable sources. Why don't they just accept the fact that they can't have everything. They wanted to leave the EU and they have to accept the consequences. Britain will be poorer off by 26%. That is a conservative figure.

May has said (several times) that the negotiations are going to be very hard going.  Davis has said that Britain must be prepared to give way on several issues and that we will still accept immigrants after Brexit.  Today in response to the latest criticisms May has said again that she will leave without a deal at all if necessary.  So far so good then! 

[Dumbastheycome]

With the  Western  world seeming  determined  to  make itself   fall  apart  I feel  quite comfortable here in Asia  where critics inform  me  daily that it has never  got it  together !

I  am preconditioned   already !