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Thailand's 'Super-Baht' May Be Too Strong For Its Own Good


webfact

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Just now, Eric Loh said:

The BOT is a juristic person which is a state agency, and is neither a government agency nor state enterprise under the law on budgetary procedure and other laws. So please tell me how the BOT able to "give money" to the government. 

I suppose I'd better spell it out as you've jumped to the wrong conclusion.

Kittirat swept B1.14tn of FIDF debt under the BOT carpet. Not interference? Only to Shin lovers.

He did it because the government debt ceiling would be broken if YL got her B2.2tn budget for nothing specific. The B2.2tn was NOT from the BOT.

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8 minutes ago, khunken said:

I suppose I'd better spell it out as you've jumped to the wrong conclusion.

Kittirat swept B1.14tn of FIDF debt under the BOT carpet. Not interference? Only to Shin lovers.

He did it because the government debt ceiling would be broken if YL got her B2.2tn budget for nothing specific. The B2.2tn was NOT from the BOT.

Ok I get it. 

The debt was never transferred as far as I know. Lots of negotiation but nothing concrete developed. Then the coup....

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6 hours ago, Searat7 said:

The coffers are almost empty in Thailand as I recall BUT foreign currency reserves are supposedly healthy. Every time they announce a new program I wonder where the money will come from.  The Junta will not be leaving the new government in a good situation if and when elections are finally held.

Finally - now that's a leading question..

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9 hours ago, BuaBS said:

What is it with these stupid articles about a too strong Baht ? Can't they understand currency graphs ? There is nothing super about the Baht.

 

untitled.JPG

Actually the full article was published by Bloomberg and quite sure they understand graphs. Also, as a leader in business/financial news around the globe, they use more than just a 10 year graph of USD:THB. The article is quite informative. 

 

Actually, the THB is a quite strong currency and has been for a long time. During the height of the THB collapse...the Asian Contagion...the Asian Financial Crisis...the baht reached it's weakest vs the USD at approximately ß56:$1 in January 1998 but by April of the same year it had already recovered to the high 30s! It fluctuated for 5-6 years from high 30s to mid-40s while The Kingdom recovered financially. The last time 40 THB to USD was seen was 11 1/2 years ago. For the next 11 years, which brings us to the present...the baht continued to strengthen and do well against the USD, reaching it's strongest ever in the high 28s and stabilized in the 29-31 range for a long period. 

 

Granted, since 2015 up to today, the USD has gained some against the THB mainly due to the USA's economic recovery...but the baht has held steady over the years despite all kinds of BAD. Coups...extreme political unrest and protests...extreme flooding and drought...violence and bombs and the death of HM The King last year. 

 

The THB has even gained 10% against the USD since December of last year. The THB is not only strong against the USD, but against all other western currencies and most Asian currencies. The USD is generally used as the benchmark because...like it or don't...it is still considered as the world's reserve currency.

 

The THB is (and has been) a Super Currency.

 

Good, informative and accurate article from Bloomberg...

Edited by Skeptic7
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7 hours ago, Cadbury said:

I have often wondered what makes up the Thai economy, particularly how much of it is classified as the "shadow" economy.

 

Curious to find out I came across this very interesting article. This 2015 story describes Thailand as one of the world leaders in  "shadow" economies". 

http://investvine.com/thailands-shadow-economy-among-biggest-globally/

 

Here is an extract:

 

Friedrich Schneider, an economist at Johannes Kepler University in Austria who has done studies on underground economies all over the world, estimates that Thailand’s shadow economy accounted for 40.9 per cent of real GDP in 2014, which would have been more than $155 billion in illicit revenue generated. If only taxed by the general 7-per cent value added tax, the government could have brought in almost $11 billion for state coffers, 12 times more than it has earmarked for desperately needed water management projects for 2015 and 2016 to cope with droughts and floods that alternately batter the country.

 

Another extract:

Bloomberg was recently inspired to a feature on Thailand’s shadow economy, pointing at the ubiquitous informal food stalls, street vendors and repair shops during the day and watering holes, street “bars” and open-air hooker venues in the night. These are, of course, all formally illegal businesses. No one pays tax for it, no one is licensed, no one is documented. They just have to pay off certain local officials to run their businesses and the police to “rent” space on the sidewalk. Money that disappears in pockets of people who constitute a food chain of corruption that stretches up to the highest echelons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clearly you have not seen market stall holders and small shop keepers write down every sale in a book for fear of being caught out. The only shadow part of the economy is the crooked Taxi Drivers who will always charge a foreigners 10 times the price they charge locals, never turn on their meters and never pay tax on it. 

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Just now, William C F Pierce said:

Clearly you have not seen market stall holders and small shop keepers write down every sale in a book for fear of being caught out. The only shadow part of the economy is the crooked Taxi Drivers who will always charge a foreigners 10 times the price they charge locals, never turn on their meters and never pay tax on it. 

Believe what you want. I know the truth. It has been staring me in the face for 10 years.

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8 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

Believe what you want. I know the truth. It has been staring me in the face for 10 years.

I have been coming to Thailand for over 10 years and watched the growth in greed of the Taxi Drivers and at the same time had small shop keepers chase after me to give me a couple of Baht change I had not waited to collect. Their are varying levels of everything Thai.

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12 hours ago, BuaBS said:

What is it with these stupid articles about a too strong Baht ? Can't they understand currency graphs ? There is nothing super about the Baht.

 

untitled.JPG

What is it with these stupid americans? They think the world turns only around them???

 

http://invst.ly/48hf2

Edited by fruitman
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15 hours ago, fruitman said:

 

On vrijdag 30 juni 2017 at 3:50 AM, BuaBS said:

What is it with these stupid articles about a too strong Baht ? Can't they understand currency graphs ? There is nothing super about the Baht.

 

untitled.JPG

What is it with these stupid americans? They think the world turns only around them???

 

http://invst.ly/48hf2

 

Well, I 'm certainly NOT american ! But the USD is , like or not , still one of the most important reference for currencies & commodities. Take the EUR : yes we got 51B/euro in the past 10 years and now only 37 , but that is not THB strength but euro weakness. This applies to many currencies , not the THB strength but other currencies weakness . Remember that many countries are drowning in debt , debt that can NEVER be repaid ( or they have to print 1 trillion USD, EUR , JPY ,GBP, AUS,.... bills , or better 10 trillion paper bills) , and Thailand barely has government debt compared to most of the around 200 countries in the world.

Edited by BuaBS
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12 hours ago, fruitman said:

What is it with these stupid americans? They think the world turns only around them???

Most of Foreign Exchange Reserve of major economies such as Canada, China and Russia are held in USD's. Thailand's FER includes a large amount of USD. FER balances are typically expressed in USD.

The USA economy is the largest in the world in terms of nominal GDP. The $18.5 trillion U.S. economy is approximately 24.5% of the gross world product.

What's in your wallet?

I'd say smart world.


 
 
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On 6/30/2017 at 6:04 AM, webfact said:

an economy where exports account for about 70 percent of gross domestic product.

This is no longer true since the 2014 coup.

I estimate the GDP composition now from various sources to be:

  • Tourism - 20% of GDP
  • Exports - 60% of GDP
  • Domestic Consumption - 20% of GDP (attribute Government at 80%)

 

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On 6/30/2017 at 6:04 AM, webfact said:

Strong currency can sting as exports make up 70% of economy

Strong baht can sting but don't think it really is damaging. A strong baht is a boon for imports of raw materials that will reduce the manufacturing costs. If you have a large contingent of foreign staffs that get paid in USD, it lower your wage cost. Shipping costs denominated in USD will drop. Baht is a result of USD weakness and most regional currencies also appreciated leveling the competitive export playing field. Most larger companies will

likely to hedge their currency muting the effects. 

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17 hours ago, Skeptic7 said:

Actually the full article was published by Bloomberg and quite sure they understand graphs. Also, as a leader in business/financial news around the globe, they use more than just a 10 year graph of USD:THB. The article is quite informative. 

 

Actually, the THB is a quite strong currency and has been for a long time. During the height of the THB collapse...the Asian Contagion...the Asian Financial Crisis...the baht reached it's weakest vs the USD at approximately ß56:$1 in January 1998 but by April of the same year it had already recovered to the high 30s! It fluctuated for 5-6 years from high 30s to mid-40s while The Kingdom recovered financially. The last time 40 THB to USD was seen was 11 1/2 years ago. For the next 11 years, which brings us to the present...the baht continued to strengthen and do well against the USD, reaching it's strongest ever in the high 28s and stabilized in the 29-31 range for a long period. 

 

Granted, since 2015 up to today, the USD has gained some against the THB mainly due to the USA's economic recovery...but the baht has held steady over the years despite all kinds of BAD. Coups...extreme political unrest and protests...extreme flooding and drought...violence and bombs and the death of HM The King last year. 

 

The THB has even gained 10% against the USD since December of last year. The THB is not only strong against the USD, but against all other western currencies and most Asian currencies. The USD is generally used as the benchmark because...like it or don't...it is still considered as the world's reserve currency.

 

The THB is (and has been) a Super Currency.

 

Good, informative and accurate article from Bloomberg...

"The THB has even gained 10% against the USD since December of last year.":

 

If you look more closely you will find that the THB appreciated only 5% against the USD, not 10%.

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On 6/30/2017 at 8:50 AM, BuaBS said:

What is it with these stupid articles about a too strong Baht ? Can't they understand currency graphs ? There is nothing super about the Baht.

 

untitled.JPG

Graphs, statistics and polls... Yep always right.

Thai "optimistic" predictions on everything and unreliable financial reports that seem to change with the wind?

Welcome to the land of smirks, smoke and mirrors...

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, AloisAmrein said:

Thai Baht THB a strong currency? Not even the USD is a strong currency. There is only one strong currency, the Swiss Franc CHF, stronger the USD and EUR.

The CHF :post-4641-1156694083:.....best refuge currency in any time.....very much in demand in international markets when times are uncertain...and as times are always uncertain..!!

 

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29 minutes ago, AloisAmrein said:

The CHF is strong because of the stability of the country and because we do not need adventures like Brexit. We export a lot of high precision machinery and parts for German car manufacturers and even for the NASA. We build and export planes (Pilatus). Yes, we export cheese too, but we import more cheese then we export. About 60% of our exports go to the EU, the rest to the whole world, China, Russia, India, Latin America included.

This was all about the Thai Baht, but we have digressed:

So, what are  the percentages and what are the financial figures compared to the UK in export value for the hi-tech things Switzerland produces for export? The UK does that hi-tech stuff too and exports, but is restricted by EU regulation from doing more.

We could talk about who has been the biggest financial center in Europe for many years too. The EU want to take that back, despite their reason being a complete nonsense given clearing houses in other parts of the world.

So what makes you think the UK cannot thrive outside the EU?

Brexit is not an adventure, it is an escape from a bureaucratic dictatorship and a path back to self government and prosperity.

 

I conclude: do you think the Thai Baht is over valued?

 

 

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On 6/30/2017 at 8:08 AM, whatawonderfulday said:

Well I guess if were ever possible to find the true state of the current Thai reserves then the baht would most likely plummet I suspect due to the plundering of the nations resources by the ruling Junta.  That aside then it was good for us when it was 76 baht to the GBP, almost half its current value . Can not see it crashing to those lows again unless their is a major crisis or a civil war, but hey TIT.  But a baht/GBP/US exchange rate of 60 and 45 respectively would be welcome I am sure 

60'll do me!

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On 30.6.2017 at 10:10 AM, Searat7 said:

The coffers are almost empty in Thailand as I recall BUT foreign currency reserves are supposedly healthy. Every time they announce a new program I wonder where the money will come from.  The Junta will not be leaving the new government in a good situation if and when elections are finally held.

After Junta took over he has borrowed 15 trillion Norwegian Kr, from Norway the last 2 years. And Thailand don`t pay anything interest back yet whay ?

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On 6/30/2017 at 8:30 AM, JAG said:

Maybe someone (not a journalist, and quite possibly clad in green) has dictated that the has changed?

 

a well known comic and (serious) social critic in the usa once said 'never believe anything the government tells you'

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3 minutes ago, YetAnother said:

a well known comic and (serious) social critic in the usa once said 'never believe anything the government tells you'

I guess you don't go near Tsunami or earthquake areas often.

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8 hours ago, AloisAmrein said:

Thai Baht THB a strong currency? Not even the USD is a strong currency. There is only one strong currency, the Swiss Franc CHF, stronger the USD and EUR.

While the Swiss franc is used as a reserve currency around the world, it ranks rarely 5th or 6th in value held as reserves after the USD, EUR, Yen, GBP and CAD. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_franc#Reserve_currency

In fact for comparative purposes all foreign reserves are expressed in USD. While currency mix in a nation's foreign reserve is typically secret, I'd guess that not many if any nations hold the baht in their foreign reserve.

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