Arab states rap 'negative' Qatari reply to demands but no new sanctions

[Morch]

4 hours ago, boomerangutang said:

Morch, we don't have to agree whether Al Jazeera (Saudis and other Arabs wanting to shut it down) was the primary focal point of Arab countries bullying Qatar.  I think it was, you don't think so. 

 

On World Press Freedom Index, of all countries and principalities ww, Saudi Arabia scores 168 out of 180. Among those that score lower in the basement are Vietnam, China, Laos, and bottom (no surprise) North Korea.   Thailand is 142.   The top four are all Scandinavian.

 

A peripheral q for that part of the world:   If Syria and Iran are friends, why don't Syrian refugees seek safe haven in Iran?  

 

Being in agreement is not a requirement for posting. There's a whole lot of history between the sides which makes Al Jazeera a symptom, rather than the core issue. You, claim otherwise based on "I think so". I doubt it represents much other than an ad hoc position, rather than a well informed and researched one.

 

Not really sure what was the point of bringing up freedom of press ranking. For one thing, Qatar, even while sponsoring the touted Al Jazeera ranks 123. Better than Saudi Arabia, but nothing to write home about. From the same publication, here's this:

 

Quote

Qatar’s outspoken TV channel, Al-Jazeera, has transformed the media landscape in the rest of the Arab world but ignores what happens in Qatar itself. Journalists in this small emirate are left little leeway by the oppressive legislative arsenal and the draconian system of censorship. The same subjects (the government, royal family and Islam) are off limits as in the rest of the Persian Gulf and violators risk imprisonment.

https://rsf.org/en/qatar

 

As for the refugee question - Syria and Iran aren't "friends". Iran supports the Alawaite minority which makes Assad's faction. The Alawaites being fringe Shiites. Most of Syria's population and most refugees are Sunni, and would not be welcomed by Iran. Other than that. there's geography - crossing over to Iran means traversing the war-zones in both Syria and Iraq. Much easier heading for other places. 

 

 

 

[Morch]

3 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

"The Saudis used Trump visit, and speech as a feeble pretext for their move That's about it."

5 Arab Nations Move to Isolate Qatar, Putting the U.S. in a Bind

"Some analysts saw the sudden escalation as a sign that Saudi Arabia and its allies had been emboldened by the recent visit from President Trump, in which he publicly embraced the Saudis as a leading partner in fighting terrorism and countering Iran’s influence."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/05/world/middleeast/qatar-saudi-arabia-egypt-bahrain-united-arab-emirates.html?_r=0

 

Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic war with Qatar, explained 

But another part of it can in fact be traced to Trump. His recent warmth toward the country, and his aggressive vilification of Iran, helped empower Saudi Arabia to finally act on its longstanding distrust of Qatar. So there is a kind of truth to Trump’s attempt to take credit for this event.

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/6/15739606/saudi-arabia-ties-qatar-trump

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, and...?

 

[metisdead]

A bickering session has been removed.  

[Kwasaki]

Can't get  AL-jazeera news on True internet, RT OK. ???

Edited July 10, 2017 by Kwasaki

[Dave67]

Qataris are not concerned about Saudis attempt to put them down. A few snaps on my journey to work in Doha

Edited July 12, 2017 by Dave67

[Morch]

12 minutes ago, Dave67 said:

Qataris are not concerned about Saudis attempt to put them down. A few snaps on my journey to work in Doha

 

True devotion to the young emir is heartwarming. Wonder how dissent is accepted, though.

[Dave67]

Just now, Morch said:

 

True devotion to the young emir is heartwarming. Wonder how dissent is accepted, though.

Doesn't appear to be any dissent if anything its rallied them , bit of Dunkirk spirit

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, Dave67 said:

Doesn't appear to be any dissent if anything its rallied them , bit of Dunkirk spirit

 

Well, not seeing any dissent is not the same of it not existing, but I get your point.Doubt that it's a long term proposition, though. Both in terms of standing up to neighbors and support for the regime. Not like there was major hardship faced yet, or that losses began to be seriously felt. Curious about the spins applied by all parties once they sort out a new deal (which will probably fare as the last one). 

[Dave67]

Just now, Morch said:

 

Well, not seeing any dissent is not the same of it not existing, but I get your point.Doubt that it's a long term proposition, though. Both in terms of standing up to neighbors and support for the regime. Not like there was major hardship faced yet, or that losses began to be seriously felt. Curious about the spins applied by all parties once they sort out a new deal (which will probably fare as the last one). 

It appears to be Saudi and others attempt at regime change but has failed miserably so far. Secondary sanctions  may follow but Iran has no dependence on Gulf states so they will feed Qatar, only 2 million people.

Edited July 12, 2017 by Dave67

[Morch]

10 minutes ago, Dave67 said:

It appears to be Saudi and others attempt at regime change but has failed miserably so far. Secondary sanctions  may follow but Iran has no dependence on Gulf states so they will feed Qatar, only 2 million people.

 

Regime change is tossed about quite a bit in this context. Perhaps worth bearing in mind how the current emir, and his dad before him came into power. Same goes for their Saudi neighbors etc. Regime change doesn't always have to be related to aggression, sometimes other kinds of pressures are enough. Doubt that the Al-Thani's are behind the emir to a man. And if his Saudi counterpart will overplay his hand, perhaps the same on his end.

 

And true, "so far" Qatar can handle the sanctions. But they haven't been on that long. I think it's a normal short term reaction to "unite" against outsiders, but question is how it fares as things drag on. Betting the emir isn't really all that anxious to find out, posturing aside.

 

As for Iran - It can supply many of Qatar needs. But will being overly dependent on Iran play out well for Qatar? Because at one point or another, Iran will want to cash in (diplomatically) on support. And then going back would be much harder. Also, not sure how well this will be received by the US.

[Kwasaki]

51 minutes ago, Dave67 said:

It appears to be Saudi and others attempt at regime change but has failed miserably so far. Secondary sanctions  may follow but Iran has no dependence on Gulf states so they will feed Qatar, only 2 million people.

I was in Qatar many moons ago building they so different to Saudi's l found,  Saudi was a lousy place.

Maybe something to do with Britain's military protection of Qatar in history.

[ilostmypassword]

4 hours ago, Morch said:

 

Regime change is tossed about quite a bit in this context. Perhaps worth bearing in mind how the current emir, and his dad before him came into power. Same goes for their Saudi neighbors etc. Regime change doesn't always have to be related to aggression, sometimes other kinds of pressures are enough. Doubt that the Al-Thani's are behind the emir to a man. And if his Saudi counterpart will overplay his hand, perhaps the same on his end.

 

And true, "so far" Qatar can handle the sanctions. But they haven't been on that long. I think it's a normal short term reaction to "unite" against outsiders, but question is how it fares as things drag on. Betting the emir isn't really all that anxious to find out, posturing aside.

 

As for Iran - It can supply many of Qatar needs. But will being overly dependent on Iran play out well for Qatar? Because at one point or another, Iran will want to cash in (diplomatically) on support. And then going back would be much harder. Also, not sure how well this will be received by the US.

I think the Iranian leadership recognizes that Iran will be getting more than enough just by thwarting the ambitions of the GCC - US enterprise against the #1 terrorist threat in the region.  They must be pretty gleeful about the stupidity of the Saudis and the UAE and how much the embargo has already worked in their favor.  Why overreach?  

[Kwasaki]

13 hours ago, Morch said:

As for Iran - It can supply many of Qatar needs. But will being overly dependent on Iran play out well for Qatar? Because at one point or another, Iran will want to cash in (diplomatically) on support. And then going back would be much harder. Also, not sure how well this will be received by the US.

Qatar has Turkey to help them as well,  l sure other countries will help too Qatar wouldn't rely on just Iran there not as stupid as the rest of the Saudi club.

[Morch]

11 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

I think the Iranian leadership recognizes that Iran will be getting more than enough just by thwarting the ambitions of the GCC - US enterprise against the #1 terrorist threat in the region.  They must be pretty gleeful about the stupidity of the Saudis and the UAE and how much the embargo has already worked in their favor.  Why overreach?  

 

What  you comment on may apply for the short term. If things become more of a permanent arrangement, there will be a price attached to Iran's support. Acting on it now may be overreaching. Leveraging influence down the road wouldn't. There can be many things said about the Iranian leadership, but it does play with long game in mind.

[Morch]

2 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

Qatar has Turkey to help them as well,  l sure other countries will help too Qatar wouldn't rely on just Iran there not as stupid as the rest of the Saudi club.

 

If you talk about supplying basic necessities (like food etc.) then, again, that's a short term proposition. There were comments made by both Turkish and Qatari sources regarding the supply by air thing not being sustainable in the long run. If this was a reference to the supposed Turkish military support - not much to write home about. The current contingent is minimal, and focused on internal security issues. Regardless of what Turkey may or may not eventually position in Qatar, the deterrence value is negligent (and not to mention redundant) relative to the already well established US presence. All that, without factoring in Erdogan's volatility and penchant for quarreling with allies and friends.

 

That you are "sure" other countries will help is great. Some already do (US and Oman a prime example), and many do not approve of Saudi Arabia & Co. stance. But these are early days, and dealing with short term sanctions is not the same as adjusting to a negative permanent reality.

 

I concur that Qatar's rulers are not daft enough to bank solely on Iran's support. Trouble is that current geopolitics being what they are not many sustainable realistic long term options out there. That's why I think, that given some time, an understanding with its neighbors will be reached. Qatar will give in on some points, opponents will back down from others. Some face saving statements and that's about it, until the next round. 

 

Of course, things may go south - though I daresay, not because any party is particularly interested in this. But given it's the ME, there could always be something. Consider how even some supposedly hacked statements and emails and inane tweeting contributed to the current crisis. 

[Kwasaki]

3 hours ago, Morch said:

Of course, things may go south - though I daresay, not because any party is particularly interested in this. But given it's the ME, there could always be something. Consider how even some supposedly hacked statements and emails and inane tweeting contributed to the current crisis. 

I hear you, frankly I think it's just a Arab storm in a teacup and may be resolved quickly but I think it will be stubbornly dragged out and I understand because I have kids of my own.  

[Dave67]

Went Shopping with the Mrs in Carrefour last night, lots of new ranges coming from Turkey and Iran probably .We bought cherries from Lebanon. A weeks shopping cost no more than usual and now there is more than just the Saudi products. Can't believe how expensive dates are here not just now but always