What’s confusing about the latest opinion polls

[webfact]

OPINION

What’s confusing about the latest opinion polls

By Tulsathit Taptim 
The Nation

 

BANGKOK: -- For people who have witnessed enough “exit poll” catastrophes both here and abroad, the latest Dusit Poll on Thai politics, in which just over 1,200 people were surveyed, will be taken with a grain of salt.

Respondents didn’t necessarily “lie” to the pollsters. Maybe they were just being polite. Even more likely, they were genuinely unaware that they were part of the problem.

 

The same goes for the recent Bangkok Poll, in which the majority of respondents demanded a police revamp to stamp out kickbacks, apparently oblivious to the fact that it takes two to tango. We can only hope those surveyed don’t really represent the majority of Thais. If they do, we really have no hope.

 

Let’s get back to the first poll. It says 70.5 per cent of those questioned said they are worried about the political divide. This is entirely puzzling. Are they politically neutral, in which case its only a mere 30 per cent who are polarised and responsible for Thailand’s decades-old problem? Or are they part of the divide but don’t know it? Or is it that they are fully aware they are part of the divide but aren’t worried about their own role?

 

It would be amazing if 70.50 per cent of Thais genuinely were politically neutral. It doesn’t appear so from where I stand. My best guess is that the respondents have a political stance, but were worried because they know a sizeable number of compatriots disagree with them. They think the “other side” created the problems that are troubling the nation.

 

The same poll stated that 68.70 per cent were worried about the behaviour of politicians. The other 31.30 per cent is more resounding. Yet again, does this latter group have complete trust in politicians, or is it merely “a bit” worried about politicians while being more worried about soldiers running the country? The poll doesn’t answer that, hence obviously posing more questions than it answered.

 

On the topic of the next election, Dusit Poll reports 57.76 per cent of respondents are “afraid” it could be postponed because essential new laws have not been finalised. So, we have 68.70 per cent of respondents who say politicians are more or less untrustworthy but we have 57.76 per cent worried that an election that will put them right back in office might not be on time. Something doesn’t add up here.

 

If the pollsters’ methods are sound, we are seeing an extremely ambivalent population. On the one hand, Thais know their politicians can’t be trusted. But on the other hand, they miss them. Which might lead us to conclude that our current military rulers have succeeded in discrediting both the politicians and themselves.

 

Readers from the pro-military camp might be frowning at this point, but consider the following. A pre-coup poll could have gone like this: About 70 per cent of respondents find the military untrustworthy but 58 per cent believe its intervention might be needed. 

 

Popular frustration with leaders is nothing new. 

 

Even a straightforward and honest ruler can be found “boring”, prompting people to call for change. In Thailand, where “straightforward” and “honest” are missing from the political dictionary, popular unrest must be a lot more complex.

 

Now, let’s turn to the Bangkok Poll. Of the 1,084 people it surveyed, 87.50 per cent of them were optimistic that large-scale police reform would eradicate kickbacks, money extortion and dereliction of duty. Asked who should take charge of the police force, respondents were almost equally torn between the prime minister, the Interior Ministry and the Justice Ministry.

 

Police reform, no matter how drastic, will not get rid of the kickback culture, period. Bribery has as much to do with the givers as the takers. Social attitudes also play a big role in negligence of duties. For instance, a billionaire whose son killed a pedestrian in a car accident can pay the police to ignore their professional duty and let the guilty walk free.

 

On extortion – victims of which include innocent, law-abiding citizens – a harsh revamp may help, but on condition that enforcement is strict and spares nobody. Again, there’s a clear line between extortion and kickbacks, with the latter depending more on a mindset among the general populace.

 

At least the split opinion over who should control the police suggests something significant. To me, the divide is Thai society screaming “We don’t care who the police report to, because it won’t change a thing.”

 

As we can see, results of opinion polls can be distorted by several factors. Among them are the pollsters’ strong but misguided presumptions, respondents’ “I must look good in my answers” impulses, and simplistic or downright bad questions. Grouping of related questions and their interpretation are also important, but this has always been badly done by Thai pollsters.

 

Even exit polls, conducted immediately after people make their decisions in the ballot box, have proven time and again to be faulty. How much greater must those faults be when we are considering political polls, in which minuscule numbers of people are surveyed, and which are carried out by people having to look over their shoulders, with poorly prepared questions that get the ambiguous answers they deserve? Enough said.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30321132

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-07-19

[canuckamuck]

33 minutes ago, webfact said:

Let’s get back to the first poll. It says 70.5 per cent of those questioned said they are worried about the political divide. This is entirely puzzling. Are they politically neutral, in which case its only a mere 30 per cent who are polarised and responsible for Thailand’s decades-old problem? Or are they part of the divide but don’t know it? Or is it that they are fully aware they are part of the divide but aren’t worried about their own role?

Why can't people be worried about the political divide regardless of their position?

I think the author would be shocked what these polls would say, if people weren't afraid to speak freely. So in a way he is correct that the polls are misleading.

 

[colinneil]

Carry out all the polls you want, people here will never speak truthfully about things.

They are scared to speak out, so they say only good things, never the truth.

[jaywalker]

"It's not only hopeless, it's hilarious."- Doug Casey.

 

People all over the world think that the socialism/communism model is viable.

 

The precious few of us that don't think that Yingluck's rice scheme, or Obamacare were good ideas, have to just realize that we can only laugh at the world's masses & prepare ourselves for the next populist gov't (where ever we may be), that promises utopia by robbing the rich to feed the bums.

 

See - Bread and circuses.

 

Sadly, I cannot see Thailand deserving anything other than a junta.

 

I wish it was different. I wish they were like the Roman, Persian, Spanish, British, American etc world powers once were.

 

Thailand cannot seem to find its buttocks with both hands though.

[Samui Bodoh]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

If the pollsters’ methods are sound, we are seeing an extremely ambivalent population.

 

This is a VERY big "if".

 

When you have a poll saying things like '54% say he acted with determination' , then you know it is BS. When I have a look at the polls in the papers, they always have elements that could not be possible or polled in a scientific manner.

 

And perhaps the respondents simply aren't aware or willing to answer honestly? In Thailand today, if someone called me up and started asking certain questions, I wouldn't answer them. Why should we expect Thais to do so?

 

Finally, consistency in political views is a nice idea, but rarely exists. It is easily possible to have two contradictory thoughts. It is called being human.

 

[smutcakes]

From my experience i think many are just completely blind to their own bias. They can point out the other sides failings, but seem to have an inability to recognize that most of the faults of one side are the same as the other. Whether this is because they do not see it, or just choose to gloss over there own sides faults i am not sure. Probably a little of column a and a little of column b.

 

Like in any country though with social media you always tend to see the more extreme views on each side, who are less likely to moderate their views and recognize the side they support also has failings. Hopefully all countries have the silent majority who recognize the faults of various protagonists and make informed rational decisions whilst acknowledging faults of there own choices, we just don't hear these opinions as much as they do not have a need to publish them to anyone and everyone.

 

I have found in the recent UK and US elections that the views you read and see on TV also seem very reluctant to acknowledge faults with their own choice extreme one way or another, so its not just Thailand.

[shanesox]

Carry out all the polls you want, people here will never speak truthfully about things.

They are scared to speak out, so they say only good things, never the truth.

Not wanting to Say something deemed negative to some pollster on the phone or with a clipboard likely in the forefront of any interviewees response

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[williamgeorgeallen]

surprised thais have an opinion on anything really. they seem pretty lethargic about life in general

[seajae]

an apology for the graft and corruption in the police force, more than anything, trying to pin it on thoise caught. Maybe if the police were honest and actually had to face up to what they did the ones caught wouldnt try to bribe them as much. When everyone knows that a payment will cancel any wrong doing it will happen, if they knew they would be arrested if they tried it wouldnt happen. Seems the author of this crap is feathering their own nest or trying to make the police out as all innocent, truly pathetic article, shows how bad the journalists are here, they really need to get an education and learn to think more so than a teen ager

[sandemara]

On 7/19/2017 at 5:22 AM, webfact said:

The same goes for the recent Bangkok Poll, in which the majority of respondents demanded a police revamp to stamp out kickbacks, apparently oblivious to the fact that it takes two to tango. We can only hope those surveyed don’t really represent the majority of Thais. If they do, we really have no hope.

Funny that you should say that  .....