Stocks Expected To Decline After Bombings

[george]

Stocks expected to decline after bombings

BANGKOK: -- The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is expected to decline on when trade resumes Wednesday due to investor's worries over the New Year's Eve bombings here, according to a senior stock analyst.

Sukij Udomsirikul of SCIB Securities said the SET is anticipated to retreat on the opening day of 2007 -- Wednesday January 3 -- after closing for four days for the New Year holidays, as investors are believed to be in a mood to sell in response to their concerns over the bombings, which the Thai capital had never seen before.

Such violence is associated with taking place in the restive South, but the Sunday and Monday December 31-January 1 bombings in Bangkok were a surprise that will definitely affect investor confidence, Mr. Sukij said.

Three persons were killed and 38 wounded, including nine foreigners, when nine bombs exploded here on New Year's Eve and early New Year's day. So far no one has been apprehended, but Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont and army chief Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratkalin said Monday that politicians who had lost power in the previous government were behind the string of bombings.

Stocks related to the tourism sector are projected to be impacted Wednesday, Mr. Sukij said, suggesting that the tourism business will be likely affected as it is now the high-season.

Tourism revenue was expected to become the largest source of Thailand's revenue in 2007, replacing exports, but that development could be unrealised in tourist arrivals decline.

Exports this year are expected to slow due to the appreciation of the Thai baht. Stock investors are watching whether foreign capital inflows will continue to enter the SET after foreign confidence was reduced by last month's strict currency controls for foreign investors initiated by the Bank of Thailand, he said.

On December 19, the central bank imposed a 30 per cent reserve on currency transactions, excepting investment in securities and on foreign direct investment (FDI). The SET on the following day plunged 14.84 per cent and lost about Bt800 billion in value -- the largest single-day drop since the SET was established 31-years ago -- as investors, especially foreigners, dumped the market.

--TNA 2007-01-02

[Who, me ?]

Stocks expected to decline after bombings

BANGKOK: -- The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is expected to decline on when trade resumes Wednesday due to investor's worries over the New Year's Eve bombings here, according to a senior stock analyst.

Sukij Udomsirikul of SCIB Securities said the SET is anticipated to retreat on the opening day of 2007 -- Wednesday January 3 -- after closing for four days for the New Year holidays, as investors are believed to be in a mood to sell in response to their concerns over the bombings, which the Thai capital had never seen before.

Such violence is associated with taking place in the restive South, but the Sunday and Monday December 31-January 1 bombings in Bangkok were a surprise that will definitely affect investor confidence, Mr. Sukij said.

Three persons were killed and 38 wounded, including nine foreigners, when nine bombs exploded here on New Year's Eve and early New Year's day. So far no one has been apprehended, but Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont and army chief Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratkalin said Monday that politicians who had lost power in the previous government were behind the string of bombings.

Stocks related to the tourism sector are projected to be impacted Wednesday, Mr. Sukij said, suggesting that the tourism business will be likely affected as it is now the high-season.

Tourism revenue was expected to become the largest source of Thailand's revenue in 2007, replacing exports, but that development could be unrealised in tourist arrivals decline.

Exports this year are expected to slow due to the appreciation of the Thai baht. Stock investors are watching whether foreign capital inflows will continue to enter the SET after foreign confidence was reduced by last month's strict currency controls for foreign investors initiated by the Bank of Thailand, he said.

On December 19, the central bank imposed a 30 per cent reserve on currency transactions, excepting investment in securities and on foreign direct investment (FDI). The SET on the following day plunged 14.84 per cent and lost about Bt800 billion in value -- the largest single-day drop since the SET was established 31-years ago -- as investors, especially foreigners, dumped the market.

--TNA 2007-01-02

any idea about what the USD / THB rate will be ?

[Pattaya46]

any idea about what the USD / THB rate will be ?

Today THB unchanged at 35.5 THB for 1 USD

but down at 47.1 THB for 1 EUR

[The Professor]

Stock markets are surging around the globe by The Thai market is supposed to miss the party

[Jai Dee]

SET Index lowered by 3.8% this morning

Following the New Year’s celebration, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) commenced again today (Jan 3) at 10:01 hours, losing 25.82 points, or 3.80 percent, to open at 654.02 points. The total trading value during the morning session was 1,108.82 million baht.

The top five most active stocks this morning were:

SCB went down 2.00 baht to open at 56.00 baht,

BBL decreased 5.00 baht to open at 105 baht,

PTT plummeted 10.00 baht to open at 200 baht,

PTTEP lessened 5.00 baht to open at 91.50 baht, and

KTB fell 0.40 baht to open at 11.50 baht.

The SET 100 Index opened its morning session at 990.79 points, down by 42.59 points, or by 4.12 percent. The total trading value was 851.81 million baht.

The SET 50 Index closed its morning session at 453.95 points, reduced by 19.32 points, or by 4.08 percent. The total trading value was 742.02 million baht.

The MAI Index closed its morning session at 188.44 points, decreased by 4.99 points, or by 2.58 percent. The total trading value was 6.25 million baht.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 03 January 2007

[Jai Dee]

Thai Stocks Fall on New Year's Eve Bomb Blasts; Thai Air Drops

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Thai stocks fell after eight bomb blasts in the nation's capital on New Year's Eve killed three people and injured 38. Thai Airways International Pcl and other tourism-related shares declined.

"Investors are going to be pretty negative about it today and for the short term,'' said Adithep Vanabriksha, who helps manage $1.9 billion at Aberdeen Asset Management Co. in Bangkok. "There will be weakness in the market, and we just need to be cautious.''

The SET Index fell 21.04, or 3.1 percent, to 658.80 at 10:30 a.m. in Bangkok. The stock market was closed yesterday and Jan. 1 for the New Year holiday.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont blamed the attacks on "people who lost their political power'' following the Sept. 19 military coup that brought him to office.

The Dec. 31 blasts, which injured nine foreigners, may threaten the government's plan to boost tourism revenue by 13 percent this year. Thailand is relying on exports and tourism to spur economic growth as investment slows because of high oil prices and political turmoil.

The explosions will have a "significant impact'' on visitor arrivals, Tourism Minister Suvit Yodmani said yesterday in comments broadcast by state-controlled Channel 9 television.

Thai Airways, the country's biggest carrier, slipped 1.75 baht, or 4 percent, to 42.50. Minor International Pcl, the country's biggest hotel operator by market value, plunged 0.90 baht, or 7.6 percent, to 11.

`Rough Ride'

Bomb attacks and shootings in southern Thailand have claimed more than 1,200 lives since January 2004, blamed by the government on insurgents campaigning for an independent Islamic state. Explosions in the capital threaten to further test investor confidence, already dented by the central bank's decision to impose capital controls on overseas investments.

The Bank of Thailand on Dec. 18 said overseas investors would have to pay a 10 percent penalty on funds withdrawn within a year. The ensuing tumble in the market forced the government the next day to exempt purchases of stocks, property and foreign direct investments from the regulations.

"The recent events, we believe, could be just the beginning of political infighting being brought out in public with risks of escalating violence,'' Sai Sarinee Sernsukskul, an analyst based in Bangkok for Credit Suisse Group, said in a note to clients today. "We foresee a possible rough ride ahead.''

`Robust' Economy

Thailand's armed forces seized power from former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a Sept. 19 coup. The military junta appointed Surayud as prime minister to lead the government until a general election is held in October. Thaksin denied involvement in the bombings, the Nation reported, citing his lawyer Noppadol Pattama.

"For foreign investors, what's happening now really is to wait for the elections to occur,'' said Sean Darby, head of Asian strategy at Normura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. "Any delays on that will really dampen sentiment. I don't think sentiment is going to be rebuilt that easily over the next three to six months, despite the fact that the economy will be very, very robust.''

The government on Dec. 4 raised its 2006 growth forecast for the economy to 5 percent from its previous estimate of 4.7 percent, on rising exports. The $197 billion economy grew 4.5 percent in 2005.

Some investors said that given the economic growth, a slide in Thai stocks may present buying opportunities. The SET is valued at 9.1 times earnings, compared with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 for the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia- Pacific Index.

"We would be quite interested to buy if the market goes down further,'' said Tan Chong Koay, who oversees more than $700 million as chief executive officer at Pheim Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore. "Thailand's still going to grow. The key question is whether this is a one-off incident or the beginning of increased instability.''

Source: Bloomberg - 3 January 2007

[Jai Dee]

Thailand's Stock Market Opens Lower In Wake Of Bomb Explosions

BANGKOK, Jan 3 (Bernama) -- The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) opened three percent lower on the first day of trading in the wake of the series of explosions that marred the kingdom's new year celebrations.

It fell to 659 points in the first 30 minutes of trading.

At the end of 2006 trading on Dec 29, it closed at 679.84 points and was cited as one of the world's worst performing exchanges last year after losing 4.75 percent from the previous year.

Today's trading came just two weeks after SET was battered by the Dec 19 "Black Tuesday" when the market crashed, losing Bt820 billion on paper and dropped by 14.8 percent after the Bank of Thailand (BOT) imposed capital control on foreign investment.

It was the largest single day drop in SET's 31-year history.

The military-backed government has blamed supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of orchestrating the blasts, a charge denied by the deposed premier currently in China.

Political uncertainty and fear of more attacks are likely to scare off foreign investors.

Polls at the end of last year showed 63 percent of respondents predicting instability in the next six months.

Many analyst had predicted that SET would take a beating following explosions that killed three and injured 38 others, including nine foreigners.

"Investors were only getting to come to terms with the capital control imposed by the BOT. Now we have this to top it off... this is going to further hurt confidence and I expect a sell-off today," Thanawat Patchimkul, head of research at KGI Securities Plc, told the Bangkok Post newspaper.

The Sept 19 bloodless coup that brought down Thaksin did not severely impact the market but the bombings, as well the escalating southern conflict, higher oil price and the appreciation of baht against the dollar is expected to have a long-term affect on Thai economy.

Exporters are worried with baht strengthening as its affects their competitiveness.

The Thai Government is targeting exports of US$145.22 billion this year, an increase of 12.5 percent compared to last year.

The baht has risen to its highest point in nine years, forcing the BOT to introduce the capital control and the Thai Chamber of Commerce expects it to strengthen above Bt34 this year.

The biggest impact from the bombings are expected on the lucrative tourism and retail industry.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand has targeted 14.8 million foreign tourists this year and revenue of US$15.6 billion but the latest incident could derail the plan.

Source: Bernama - 3 January 2007

[Jai Dee]

Thai stocks plunge, currency stable in first trading after bombings

BANGKOK, Jan 3 (TNA) - Thailand's baht currency is so far unaffected, although shares on the first trading day for the Thai bourse plunged 2.95 per cent Wednesday as investors reacted to the New Year's Eve bombings in the capital.

According to a Kasikorn Bank currency trader, the baht was trading at 36.09-36.11 to the dollar, similar to last week's closing rate, despite the deaths of three people and nearly 40 others injured in the year end bombings.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula said that the bombings will not hurt the economy in the long term but he conceded that the incidents may affect the tourist sector in the short term. He urged the Council for National Security (CNS) to conclude the case as soon as possible to restore investors' confidence.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composit index dropped 20.05 points to 659.79 or 2.95 per cent but then started a steady rebound after a few hours of opening trade on the first business day with turnover of Bt 4.798 billion (about US$135.15 million).

Investors sold shares in the energy, banking and construction sectors on concerns over the adverse effects on the kingdom's consumer market and investment in the wake of the fatal bombings which Bangkok has never before encountered.

SET president Patareeya Benjapolchai said the index did not drop sharply as in the panic selling of December 19, as investors have some time to absorb the news during the long New Year holiday weekends. They have been assured that the government's extra security measures will effectively stem any untoward incidents.

On December 19, the central bank imposed a 30 per cent reserve on currency transactions, excepting investments in securities and on foreign direct investment (FDI). The SET on the following day plunged 14.84 per cent and lost about Bt800 billion in value -- the largest single-day drop in the 31-year history of the bourse -- as investors, especially foreigners, dumped the shares.

The SET president also said that investors should not panick and dump shares, otherwise they will lose investment opportunities.

The Thai bourse, in collaboration with foreign brokers, will keep foreign investors well-informed about the current situation, Mrs. Patareeya said.

Source: TNA - 3 January 2006

[Jai Dee]

Stock trading slowed down due to the spate of bomb blasts

Stock trading in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) market was not as impressive as it used to be following the New Year’s Eve bomb blasts in Bangkok.

SET index has lowered over 25 points; however, stock trading in foreign markets has not dropped dramatically. Investors have two days to evaluate the situation before the SET market resumes again.

SET president Patareeya Benchapolchai (ภัทรียา เบญจพลชัย) said he is confident that the situation will become better as well as warning investors to carefully consider the situation before investing.

Mrs. Wiriya Labpromrat (วิริยา ลาภพรหมรัตน์), Senior Director of securities analysis department from Kiatnakin Securities Company Limited, said that stock trading this morning has slowed down as expected. As for short-term investments, she views that people should consider all factors before deciding to invest.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 03 January 2007

[keda]

I guess we'll be told that prolonged negative moves in the market are due to instability caused by the bombs, and nothing at all to do with the Bank of Thailand monkeys.

Meanwhile, some excellent stock pickings available right now, though some may decide to wait for even better.

[brazil]

I guess we'll be told that prolonged negative moves in the market are due to instability caused by the bombs, and nothing at all to do with the Bank of Thailand monkeys.

Meanwhile, some excellent stock pickings available right now, though some may decide to wait for even better.

the stocks will continue to go down with no supportive positive news for the economy.

[LaoPo]

I guess we'll be told that prolonged negative moves in the market are due to instability caused by the bombs, and nothing at all to do with the Bank of Thailand monkeys.

Meanwhile, some excellent stock pickings available right now, though some may decide to wait for even better.

the stocks will continue to go down with no supportive positive news for the economy.

I doubt that. International -US- reports say that individual Thai stocks are undervalued...however it remains to be seen if there will be enough buyers since the bombings and 'other turmoil' in LOS.

If the BoT/Government would find a way out of the climbing Baht and take steps to lower it, it might be a good time to do some stock-picking....

LaoPo

[astral]

First we have a government that shoots itself in the foot,

now we have the bombers....................

I despair of this country.

[Jai Dee]

SET continued to sink this morning

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index opened this at 633.84 points, down by 14.38 points or 2.22 percent. The total trading value was 8.296 billion baht. The index continued to plummet due to the political uncertainty and the reduction of crude oil price.

In addition, foreign investors also continued to sell their shares, especially the shares from the energy and banking sectors. No signals have shown that the foreign investors will slow down their sales of shares.

The SET Index reached its highest level in the morning at 644.17 points and its lowest level at 629.25 points.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 January 2007

[womble]

I guess we'll be told that prolonged negative moves in the market are due to instability caused by the bombs, and nothing at all to do with the Bank of Thailand monkeys.

Meanwhile, some excellent stock pickings available right now, though some may decide to wait for even better.

Do you really think now is a time to buy?

No elected government in sight and a political situation that will more than likely deteriorate.

[PeaceBlondie]

I have a friend who makes his living investing his own money, sometimes in wild speculations. He wouldn't buy a Thai stock until the bottom falls out, and his idea of bottom feeding is more than 50% off its peak. He bought South American bonds for 10% of their face value.

I'm no investment expert, but I suspect there's a whole lot more to sensible investing than the price/earnings ratio, especially if the earnings aren't subjected to full audits.

[brazil]

I have a friend who makes his living investing his own money, sometimes in wild speculations. He wouldn't buy a Thai stock until the bottom falls out, and his idea of bottom feeding is more than 50% off its peak. He bought South American bonds for 10% of their face value.

I'm no investment expert, but I suspect there's a whole lot more to sensible investing than the price/earnings ratio, especially if the earnings aren't subjected to full audits.

many stocks are down by 50% from the 8th december when the set was 740 points.

no one is confident in buying right now! even speculators are keeping away

and with the money drying up in the system thanks to black tuseday, then its very hard to see how the stocks will bounce back in the short term.

Edited January 5, 2007 by brazil