Army Denies Coup Rumours

[sriracha john]

Enjoying the funny banter...

Please keep it going.

Meanwhile... there is no counter-coup

but don't let that slow down the banter, it's too amusing to read.

[AlexLah]

We do not know if there is a counter coup because all we/you rely on is the printed and internet media.

We need live reports!

[Bottlerocket]

Like any business man he needs to spend money to make money. Thaksin stands to lose a lot more if he does nothing.

TS is a major player in The Carlyle Group

Really, come on don't be coy "Major player" ? - spell it out. ...investor maybe?

(since you're obviously another member of the crypto-elite Bilderberger conspiracy theorists)

I am often at the offices of Carlyle Group in Hong Kong, and they're not nearly as sinister as you make out. Anyone can invest - .........not those on an English teachers salary mind.

Breaking News

Barney the Dinosaur seen to frequent the Hong Kong offices of the Carlyle Group.

[Casanundra]

Rumours are abound for sure but I went down to immigration today and as I was driving there I was behind two jeeps full of squaddies in full battle order kit with rifles slung over their shoulders and I ain't seen that kind of thing since the day of the last chicken coup.

[Tony Clifton]

Johpa,

Like any business man he needs to spend money to make money. Thaksin stands to lose a lot more if he does nothing. My post is simply taking facts and applying them to constants to get an extrapolation of possible outcomes. If he is in China it is not to play golf. If I were to guess he is setting up a fall back position or trying to swing some sweetheart deals if he gets back in. I would not put it past Thaksin to try to get the Chinese involved in perhaps a military way.

There is no compromise with Thaksin. A dance with the devil can only have one outcome.

Not impossible to get them involved somehow. He has shown in the past that he must have what he wants. If he wants revenge now that he's locked out and stands to lose a lot, he sure can come up with anything to make it work, however screwy it may sound.

However, it is no secret that he is very chummy with the Chinese leadership. The idea that they would intervene in a military way is an extremely foolish notion John.

China is probably quite concerned about the situation in Thailand but not in the way people are thinking here. Under the Thaksin government there had been many very successful agreements between the two countries culminating in a FTA where 90% of the products traded are fruits and vegetables with a huge trading value. The new government, the CNS and the Palace are all pushing self sufficiency and the Chinese may well feel a bit betrayed. Maybe having Thaksin close at hand is a way for them to put pressure on the CNS etc

Were any personal deals signed as well between Thaksin and China at some point?

[Blake7]

If he is in China it is not to play golf. If I were to guess he is setting up a fall back position or trying to swing some sweetheart deals if he gets back in. I would not put it past Thaksin to try to get the Chinese involved in perhaps a military way.

There is no compromise with Thaksin. A dance with the devil can only have one outcome.

Not impossible to get them involved somehow. He has shown in the past that he must have what he wants. If he wants revenge now that he's locked out and stands to lose a lot, he sure can come up with anything to make it work, however screwy it may sound.

snigger

Do you really think the Chinese are going to get involved? Seriously?

Whatever Thaksin may be he is certainly more politically savvy than you imbeciles and I am sure he is not getting his hopes up that the PLA are going to roll their tanks through Laos to the rescue.

The fact that the Chinese are letting him stay in China at all the the extent of their message of disapproval to the junta.

[Siripon]

If he is in China it is not to play golf. If I were to guess he is setting up a fall back position or trying to swing some sweetheart deals if he gets back in. I would not put it past Thaksin to try to get the Chinese involved in perhaps a military way.

There is no compromise with Thaksin. A dance with the devil can only have one outcome.

Not impossible to get them involved somehow. He has shown in the past that he must have what he wants. If he wants revenge now that he's locked out and stands to lose a lot, he sure can come up with anything to make it work, however screwy it may sound.

snigger

Do you really think the Chinese are going to get involved? Seriously?

Whatever Thaksin may be he is certainly more politically savvy than you imbeciles and I am sure he is not getting his hopes up that the PLA are going to roll their tanks through Laos to the rescue.

The fact that the Chinese are letting him stay in China at all the the extent of their message of disapproval to the junta.

The Chinese love Thaksin for the FTA he signed with them allowing a flood of cheap agricultural imports into Thailand impoverishing northern onion and garlic farmers whilst all their cantons enforce regulations ensuring Thai products will have long perished before reaching the market.

Regarding the bombs, Suwannapum could be an important factor, the investigations into corruption have been scrutinising the contracts for security, some men in uniform stand to lose a lot if allegations can be proved.

I remember Thaksin saying he would rather lose everything than be defeated, this is a man who would stop at nothing to achieve his goals; and right now as every day passes and more and more of his misdeeds are being checked and exposed to the public he knows the fall of the junta is his only hope.

By the way, what has happened to the colonel? Has he received an urgent message to go to Bejing or is he on holiday?

Edited January 5, 2007 by Siripon

[Khaow8989]

Ok, normally I dont say anything on these postings, it is just interesting to watch. I keep seeing information about "someone" saying there will not be another coup or there is no coup, but... did they not say that the last time and a few days later there was a damned coup?

This is where the "Don't believe anything you see and only half of what you hear" come into play.

Edited January 5, 2007 by Khaow8989

[mitrapaap]

I can just see the CNN reports now....

The military government of Thailand staged a coup and overthrew itself today...."

You don't need CNN to find out what happens in front of your door, do you?

[Rainmaker]

If it is true, it really will screw the economy..........

Has anyone herd of the bombings in Chiangmai 2 killed at Tesco and bomb at carfour ?.

Have you had any more news on this?

[mitrapaap]

Johpa,

Like any business man he needs to spend money to make money. Thaksin stands to lose a lot more if he does nothing. My post is simply taking facts and applying them to constants to get an extrapolation of possible outcomes. If he is in China it is not to play golf. If I were to guess he is setting up a fall back position or trying to swing some sweetheart deals if he gets back in. I would not put it past Thaksin to try to get the Chinese involved in perhaps a military way.

There is no compromise with Thaksin. A dance with the devil can only have one outcome.

<snip>

You don't know Thaksin, its all just what you've seen in the papers and then you improvise the rest.

You make it sound like you're an intelligence insider - yet most likely just another ex-US serviceman wanting an audience. Plenty of you down in Washington Square.

Hmm. Sounds you know Thaksin much better than John. So why not enlighten us a little bit, rather than just critizising another poster without showing us that he is wrong.

[mitrapaap]

This is a serious topic, but it has been shanghai'ed by 'political insider and CIA-analyst manque' John to discuss his madcap theories of Chinese invasion.

Enough please John. This topic is for real breaking news that might affect us all, not your idle speculation and conspiracy theories.

and no we're not all going to read what you say 'word for word' . Sorry, we have better things to do than pander to this.

I really tried hard Barney, but still can't figure out what exaclty YOUR value adding to the topic is. Your comments look like useless flintstone chat to me.

[Plus]

Carlyle group flexing its political and economic muscle to destabilize Thailand to help Thaksin is a mother of all conspiracies.

Internationally he is, and has always been, a nobody.

[Cyberstar]

If it is true, it really will screw the economy..........

Has anyone herd of the bombings in Chiangmai 2 killed at Tesco and bomb at carfour ?.

Have you had any more news on this?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=99864

[gmac]

I really tried hard Barney, but still can't figure out what exaclty YOUR value adding to the topic is. Your comments look like useless flintstone chat to me.

He's merely a chap passing comment on what both he and I see as the equivalent of a few old wives gossiping over the garden fence.

Nobody KNOWS what is going on, anybody's theories remain just that. Everybody on this site takes themselves so seriously but what VALUE do their comments actually add? Answer - None whatsoever.

[JacknDanny]

I really tried hard Barney, but still can't figure out what exaclty YOUR value adding to the topic is. Your comments look like useless flintstone chat to me.

He's merely a chap passing comment on what both he and I see as the equivalent of a few old wives gossiping over the garden fence.

Nobody KNOWS what is going on, anybody's theories remain just that. Everybody on this site takes themselves so seriously but what VALUE do their comments actually add? Answer - None whatsoever.

So with that comment, I assume you know EVERY person on this forum,who their circles of friends are, who they play golf with etc etc.

Just because you can only get information from newspapers and the internet, doesnt mean that everybody is the same

[globez]

A well...its weekend...Lets party! So sick of this! Bombs go off all the time in Spain...people still go, when the IRA was around people still went to London...so whats the big deal???

Let them play their games...I will have my fun and let the police tell me when I've to go home !

[younghusband]

Carlyle group flexing its political and economic muscle to destabilize Thailand to help Thaksin is a mother of all conspiracies.

Internationally he is, and has always been, a nobody.

I would have to agree with your second para, although he had a reputation of sorts in SE Asia.Part of the problem internationally was his complete lack of charm, and his only functional grasp of the English language.Having said that few Thai PM s have made much of an impact on the world stage.What exactly does say a Japanese PM or a French president make of a Banharn, Chavalit, Kriengsak or Chuan?

Best equipped to operate internationally were the more traditional upper class and upper middle class gents ie Prem,Kukrit, Anand, Seni and yes Surayud.But sadly it is hard for Thais to make an impression abroad.Abhisit, though presently putting in a rather disapointing performance, has the "weaponry" to make an impact -an Eton and Oxford education,a genuine intellect,an understanding of economics,a commitment to democracy, respect for traditional Thai values, perfect English,uncorrupt, good looks and bags of charm.Let's see whether he can persuade the masses if the Keystone Cops of the current military junta ever graciously allows the Thai people to have a say on their destiny.

On Carlyle Group I have seldom seen so much nonsense as set out in this thread. Most posters barely seem to know what an investing institution does.Incidentally for the record I don't think Carlyle has any investments in Thailand.

[Siripon]

Since the coup there have been 39 arson attacks on schools, aside from the deep South the majority took place in southern Issan, the stronghold of TRT.

How many people arrested so far?

None.

The police are seen by Thais to be close to the public, both in a positive and negative sense; it's hard to believe they don't know who is behind the burnings.

[Plus]

Bombings were meant as a show of force so logically there should be negotiations next (behind closed doors, of course).

If it was some disgruntled faction of a military/police they could settle on something very easily and no one would ever notice. If Thaksin is involved, however, the generals can't concede anything anymore as they are widely accused of being too soft already.

In the end Thaksin will probably be left out in the cold as for his "supporters" it's much easier to strike a cushy deal for themselves than continue with the bombing and put all the stakes on Thaksin's return.

[salty]

Thaskin in China? Maybe the Beijing Olympic Organising Comittee have been impressed by his efforts in "organising" Suvarnaphumi, and are trying to utilise his talents.

[Old Man River]

Like any business man he needs to spend money to make money. Thaksin stands to lose a lot more if he does nothing.

Not true John. TS is a major player in The Carlyle Group and The Carlyle Group is one of the world’s largest private equity firms, with more than $46.9 billion under management. He's in there with players like the Bushes, the bin Ladens, John Major, Liu Hong-Ru, Fidel Ramos and do you remember this guy Anand Panyarachun. If this group wanted to put Thailand's economy in the dumpster it wouldn't take long, and I'm sure that the junta knows this. Thaksin may have much more clout while outside the country than if he was inside it at the moment.

Lukamar what are you smoking? Are you writing a novel?

[Jaonghais]

Ok, normally I dont say anything on these postings, it is just interesting to watch. I keep seeing information about "someone" saying there will not be another coup or there is no coup, but... did they not say that the last time and a few days later there was a damned coup?

This is where the "Don't believe anything you see and only half of what you hear" come into play.

This is where the "Don't believe anything you see and only half of what you hear" come into play.

You got that one backwards.

Don't believe anything you hear and only half of what you see.

[John K]

Internationally he is, and has always been, a nobody.

Plus, you hit the nail on the head with this one, good on you. Look at the countries he as been dealing with after the sent the government packing. The countries that would even bother to talk with him when the care taker government was in place have less than a good reputation. The USA wanted no part of him until a real government was seated. Myanmar, and a hand full of others who have some serious corruption problems are all I can think of.

On another note Bangkok is going to look like a pig sty for a while. All the trash/garbage barrels have ben removed and everything is just laying on the sidewalk. That includes the skytrain and subway.

There were also well armed solders in the subway stations (at least Rama 9). You don’t need weapons to look for bombs. This tells me that the posturing is a bit more than is being talked about.

Edited January 5, 2007 by John K

[bkkandrew]

If he is in China it is not to play golf. If I were to guess he is setting up a fall back position or trying to swing some sweetheart deals if he gets back in. I would not put it past Thaksin to try to get the Chinese involved in perhaps a military way.

There is no compromise with Thaksin. A dance with the devil can only have one outcome.

Not impossible to get them involved somehow. He has shown in the past that he must have what he wants. If he wants revenge now that he's locked out and stands to lose a lot, he sure can come up with anything to make it work, however screwy it may sound.

snigger

Do you really think the Chinese are going to get involved? Seriously?

Whatever Thaksin may be he is certainly more politically savvy than you imbeciles and I am sure he is not getting his hopes up that the PLA are going to roll their tanks through Laos to the rescue.

The fact that the Chinese are letting him stay in China at all the the extent of their message of disapproval to the junta.

The Chinese love Thaksin for the FTA he signed with them allowing a flood of cheap agricultural imports into Thailand impoverishing northern onion and garlic farmers whilst all their cantons enforce regulations ensuring Thai products will have long perished before reaching the market.

Regarding the bombs, Suwannapum could be an important factor, the investigations into corruption have been scrutinising the contracts for security, some men in uniform stand to lose a lot if allegations can be proved.

I remember Thaksin saying he would rather lose everything than be defeated, this is a man who would stop at nothing to achieve his goals; and right now as every day passes and more and more of his misdeeds are being checked and exposed to the public he knows the fall of the junta is his only hope.

By the way, what has happened to the colonel? Has he received an urgent message to go to Bejing or is he on holiday?

Here he is:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...8536&st=30#

Under cover in "Western Europe", perhaps receiving ordinance training from ETA???

Edited January 5, 2007 by bkkandrew

[laidback]

I think this country likes going backwards, not forward.

[Johpa]

Thaksin is probably very upset that Thailand just did not fold and wither when he was forced out of office. Everything he did when he was in office was by design to make the country dependant on him thus an attempt to make himself a necessary evil. Because that did not happen a coup is now more likely.

The happenings of the last several days may just be a test to see how the government will react to situations. The statements by the government to expect more bombs says they feel a significant force is behind them. The only significant force not in power is Thaksin.

To summarize I think a coup is likely but not today. I think it may be a week or more away. It depends on the posture of the military and troop deployment. If you see the military in the street again that should be read as the government is very concerned about a real threat. Reimposing martial law in Bangkok may be necessary.

........

I would rather have the coup leaders come to a compromise with Thaksin and at least have him back inside Thai borders rather then have Thaksin spend too much more time spending politcal capital in Beijing. But then again, I am all in favor of the instability if it will deter tourists and thus bring down airfares.

Like you say a compromise is what is needed and will in all likelihood happen although I think it is not jsut about coup leaders and Mr. Thaksin but about old and new power as they are becoming to be known, and these groups contain a lot more of the elite figures than just the few we assume. There is a good opinion in the nation today on exactly this : http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/05...on_30023316.php

I guess the alternative will be total instability for a prolonged period.

Your comment on the offer of 30 for tax income is an interesting interpretation and you may be right. It seems that Mr. Thaksins counter offer is along the lines of OK do me and the wife and brother in law but leave the kids out of it. If there is enough stability to allow the cases to progress to completion we may find that a deal has been worked out. However, the stability depends on more than just the coup leaders and Mr. Thaksin although both could do more to insure it. There are also other powerful players who are nobody's puppets out there who have lost power, and at the end of the day that is what all this is about - power.

The Nation writes: "Thailand is a country that is ruled by not more than 100 members of three rival groups: the military, the police, and the old-time political elite. They know what their rivals are up to. If they could agree on sharing the benefits, the whole country would be able to move on. Until that happens, they will pull the strings behind the scenes under the camouflage of democracy, or half-baked democracy, whatever you call it."

I would say that there are far more groups that coalesece around the three institutions above, but there are divisions within each institution, and the Nation does not mention the nuveau-rich such as Thaksin, who formed alliances with some police factions, and who formed a new political elite in opposition to the old "sakdina" guard, who often allied with army factions, and their allies.

[LaoPo]

Frightening article in The Nation...for the future of Thailand:

"Stakes at a deadly high in struggle between 'old' and 'new' powers"

The year 2007 will mark another dark period for the Kingdom. The bomb blasts that hit Bangkok on New Year's Eve signal the beginning of another phase in the power struggle between the "new power" and the "old power". The outcome is anybody's guess at the moment.

Excerpts:

"Military allies of the old regime have also lost power after the coup. They are bitterly upset with their loss of power in this latest round. The police, who are mostly allies of the old regime, have been hanging on tightly to their power because they too are under the threat of being dismantled. You'd be kidding yourself again if you believed that the remnants of the old regime would do nothing to strike back."

"In Thailand, only men in police and military uniforms have the capability to produce these kinds of bomb devices and set them off in different parts of Bangkok."

"With these bombs, the old power and the new power are engaging in a very sophisticated power play. It could become a pretext for another coup or countercoup. If both sides do not handle the situation well, Thailand may turn into another Iraq."

"One way or another, the old power has to outlive the ousted prime minister otherwise it will become dead meat."

"At that point, street protests might erupt again against the new power to further complicate the political situation. The old power is waiting to make a comeback if its core members survive the ordeal. After one side prevails, only then may Thailand return to peace again. Yet, at what price?"

source:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/05...on_30023316.php

LaoPo

[Cyberstar]

Frightening article in The Nation...for the future of Thailand:

"Stakes at a deadly high in struggle between 'old' and 'new' powers"

The year 2007 will mark another dark period for the Kingdom. The bomb blasts that hit Bangkok on New Year's Eve signal the beginning of another phase in the power struggle between the "new power" and the "old power". The outcome is anybody's guess at the moment.

Excerpts:

"Military allies of the old regime have also lost power after the coup. They are bitterly upset with their loss of power in this latest round. The police, who are mostly allies of the old regime, have been hanging on tightly to their power because they too are under the threat of being dismantled. You'd be kidding yourself again if you believed that the remnants of the old regime would do nothing to strike back."

"In Thailand, only men in police and military uniforms have the capability to produce these kinds of bomb devices and set them off in different parts of Bangkok."

"With these bombs, the old power and the new power are engaging in a very sophisticated power play. It could become a pretext for another coup or countercoup. If both sides do not handle the situation well, Thailand may turn into another Iraq."

"One way or another, the old power has to outlive the ousted prime minister otherwise it will become dead meat."

"At that point, street protests might erupt again against the new power to further complicate the political situation. The old power is waiting to make a comeback if its core members survive the ordeal. After one side prevails, only then may Thailand return to peace again. Yet, at what price?"

source:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/05...on_30023316.php

LaoPo

Thanks for contributing yet another scaremonger's opinion ... exactly what all of us, living in Thailand, we all need!

[Noodles]

Frightening article in The Nation...for the future of Thailand:

"Stakes at a deadly high in struggle between 'old' and 'new' powers"

The year 2007 will mark another dark period for the Kingdom. The bomb blasts that hit Bangkok on New Year's Eve signal the beginning of another phase in the power struggle between the "new power" and the "old power". The outcome is anybody's guess at the moment.

Excerpts:

"Military allies of the old regime have also lost power after the coup. They are bitterly upset with their loss of power in this latest round. The police, who are mostly allies of the old regime, have been hanging on tightly to their power because they too are under the threat of being dismantled. You'd be kidding yourself again if you believed that the remnants of the old regime would do nothing to strike back."

"In Thailand, only men in police and military uniforms have the capability to produce these kinds of bomb devices and set them off in different parts of Bangkok."

"With these bombs, the old power and the new power are engaging in a very sophisticated power play. It could become a pretext for another coup or countercoup. If both sides do not handle the situation well, Thailand may turn into another Iraq."

"One way or another, the old power has to outlive the ousted prime minister otherwise it will become dead meat."

"At that point, street protests might erupt again against the new power to further complicate the political situation. The old power is waiting to make a comeback if its core members survive the ordeal. After one side prevails, only then may Thailand return to peace again. Yet, at what price?"

source:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/01/05...on_30023316.php

LaoPo

A scary thought...lets hope this is not the case