British expats in Thailand feeling the misery as the UK pound drops to record low levels.

[Fairynuff]

7 hours ago, almodeller said:

When the school holidays are over and people are not selling their £'s to buy other currencies in holiday places the £ should recover

I can't see the GBP recovering much u til brexit gets dumped

[Craig krup]

Just now, bobbin said:

Craig krup...

 

I'm not a Brit, but I have just started reading this thread, as I have some British friends who unfortunately are being affected by the current situation.

 

I just wanted to post to say that I am enjoying the way you write, and what you are writing is tickling my remaining brain cells.

 

I have a reasonable amount of assets here in Thailand. A nice condo, a car, motorcycle, the big screen 4K television, blah blah. I've been here 15 years. But at least half of my money is in cash, in my home country, earning nothing or next to it. It makes me feel comfortable though, as I always have access to cash. It's not that I don't know anything about investing, as I have researched. BTW, what I came away with from that research was...buy ETFs. Low fees, spread the risk. But...

 

It scares me. I'm afraid that I'll screw it up somehow and lose most of my cash money. It's not particularly rational, as I know about inflation eating cash holdings. Add in FX fluctuations...

 

How does a guy like me pull the trigger? Whack in 20% like you say, and watch what happens? Get used to the sensation, and add on downturns?

 

Don't worry, I won't come looking for you if my fears are realized! 

 

Well - and it's only my opinion! - you need to be as patient as hell. In 1998-9 all my pals were calling me a stroker because I wouldn't buy shares. I thought price to earnings ratios were mental, and that you couldn't justify the prices on any reasonable assumption about growth. They couldn't see that this was my real motive. They were driven by greed and fear, so if I didn't buy a rising market it had to be because of fear, because that was the only motive they could have for not buying a rising market. So I stockpiled cash and gilts. Interest rates weren't bad. You need chaos, despair, headlines, lead stories on the news....Right now there has been a long bull market, and trees don't grow to the sky. There's a real risk that the Donald will do something lunatic. So what I'd do is have cash in a cheap and reputable dealing account - Hargreaves, AJ Bell, something like that. Now if the world never looks as if it's ending, and interest rates start to go back up, then you might have to go back into deposits. But if things stay the way they are you aren't losing much. If the sh1t seems to royally hit the fan then buy a chunk of something fairly liquid which has fallen a long way. !Liquid" means there's a good two-way trade in the shares. ETFs are highly recommended, and there's a high yield UK one (below), but the legal structure just gives me the creeps. Something like City of London investment trust is bog standard, as is Murray International. Both are huge and widely diversified with good dividends. I first started going what at the time was for me "heavy" in 2007. I just bought £5,000 worth most days for weeks as the chaos continued. My first 60k fell to 48. I could hardly sleep. I chucked all my cash ISAs into stocks and shares ISAs - another 60k - and it f@**^%g fell on its arse as well. Since then I chucked all my other cash in, kept throwing in my wages, kept chucking in the dividends and now (finally) it seems as if the 20 year plan has paid off. 

 

But, as I say, starting from here I don't know what I'd do. Strictly speaking that's an irrational comment. If I hold at today's prices that's the same as buying at today's prices, so long as I can sell without a capital gains problem, which (ISAs, SIPPs) I can. But that's not how it feels. I can stomach losing gains, but losses on what you've chucked in feel very different. 

 

https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251807/ishares-uk-dividend-ucits-etf?siteEntryPassthrough=true&locale=en_GB&userType=individual

 

 

[whiteman]

My guess is, considering the £ is at is weakest level since many years and the bank interest rates are also at their lowest since for many years, that there will be a mass exodus of Brits leaving Thailand.  Hurrayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[Fairynuff]

4 hours ago, Craig krup said:

Project Fear, ran by the Treasury and Bank of England. As to 15 months, we were making a decision for many decades into the future. In the grand scheme of things the UK has suffered remarkably little from the vote

Apparently with your head in the sand you haven't noticed that Project Fear is rapidly becoming Project Reality. The UK economy is now the worst performing economy in Europe and one of the worst in the world and the reason this thread was started is because the GBP is tanking....Brexit being the cause. Take your head out of the sand for a moment....Brexit is Project Suicide

[rickudon]

Well some are well off enough that they don't really need to worry what the exchange rate is. I think the biggest problem with Brexit is too many countries have a vested interest in penalising the UK, Germany is probably one of the few that doesn't. So there will be no such thing as a 'good deal' only poor deals and bad deals. Although in the long term (30-40 years?) Britain MAY be better off, in the short term it will be ugly. Tariffs on some exports to the EU, taxes cut for businesses so government income will be slashed - therefore National debt will balloon, unless draconian public spending cuts are introduced. So i see the welfare state and benefits system (including pensions) taking a hammering, higher income tax and a really vicious job market (as if it wasn't bad already). The government will have to stop Brits from spending money on imports or out of the country, or maybe we will go for a default.

 

As for migration, yes, fewer Europeans are coming in, but net migration is also down because Brits are leaving to work outside the UK - up 20%, and fewer are returning.

[whiteman]

Term investment rates

Interest rates for term deposits and ASB Term Fund.

Term deposits

Term	$5,000 - $9,999.99	$10,000+
30 Days	0.75% p.a.	1.00% p.a.
60 Days	1.00% p.a.	1.00% p.a.
90 Days	1.75% p.a.	2.75% p.a.
4 Months	2.00% p.a.	3.00% p.a.
5 Months	2.00% p.a.	3.00% p.a.
6 Months	2.00% p.a.	3.50% p.a.
9 Months	2.00% p.a.	3.35% p.a.
12 Months	2.00% p.a.	3.25% p.a.
18 Months	2.00% p.a.	3.65% p.a.
2 Years	2.00% p.a.	3.80% p.a.
3 Years	2.00% p.a.	3.90% p.a.
4 Years	2.00% p.a.	4.10% p.a.
5 Years	2.00% p.a.	4.20% p.a.

[Fairynuff]

3 hours ago, Craig krup said:

UK can find £3,500 a month to give them

Been reading the daily mail again?

[whiteman]

I see that Greece is now in bed with China after the E.U. bailed them out maybe this is the future of Europe

[Fairynuff]

2 hours ago, Craig krup said:

Email the German economist below and argue with him. 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/844983/Brexit-news-German-economist-bright-future-UK-trouble-ahead-EU

 

 

You're quoting something from the express!!!!! Lost cause

[Jonnapat]

5 hours ago, jeab1980 said:

Idiotic to you living in Thailand for 17years. Not idiotic to those (and im not one as i live in thailand pay no taxes anymore to Uk) who live under the rule of an outdated EU run by Germany in the main for there own good.

Its very easy to throw away comments like yours when you no longer and indeed by your own hand admit to living here for 17 years.

I thought this topic was about the current value of sterling v baht.

Not about Germany running the EU. Incidentally they are so much better at it than the UK as their economic situation clearly shows

[Craig krup]

32 minutes ago, Fairynuff said:

Project Fear is rapidly becoming Project Reality. 

I've got this broken clock, but I keep it because twice a day it's right. 

[Craig krup]

28 minutes ago, Fairynuff said:

Been reading the daily mail again?

 

Maybe I know two welfare advisers and a number of other (similar) public sector workers, and maybe all these "progressive" people are united in their believe that what is going on is 1) mental, 2) unsustainable, and 3) unknown to the public. Ever think of that? Ever think that devout Muslim women wearing veils are already telling welfare rights advisers that they don't know who the father of their unborn child is, as their husband sits three feet behind them, playing with the other kids? But that's all just Daily Mail gibberish, isn't it? 

 

Check out Tracey's finances (below). Pull the pointer through to 43 minutes. Notice how she earns £500 a month and receives another three grand of other folks' money on top. You think that's sustainable? You think we can make that offer to half the world? 

 

 

 

 

[paulo59]

Craig Krup so right about long term income from investment trusts

[Kieran00001]

Doesn't the term expat refer to professionals working abroad temporarily?  I thought those who went to live permanently in another country, such as the pensioners who are dependant on the pound, were called immigrants?

[jeab1980]

35 minutes ago, Jonnapat said:

I thought this topic was about the current value of sterling v baht.

Not about Germany running the EU. Incidentally they are so much better at it than the UK as their economic situation clearly shows

I was replying to the poster who brought Brexit into this I suggest you aim your post at him

Edited August 28, 2017 by jeab1980

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, bobbin said:

Craig krup...

 

I'm not a Brit, but I have just started reading this thread, as I have some British friends who unfortunately are being affected by the current situation.

 

I just wanted to post to say that I am enjoying the way you write, and what you are writing is tickling my remaining brain cells.

 

I have a reasonable amount of assets here in Thailand. A nice condo, a car, motorcycle, the big screen 4K television, blah blah. I've been here 15 years. But at least half of my money is in cash, in my home country, earning nothing or next to it. It makes me feel comfortable though, as I always have access to cash. It's not that I don't know anything about investing, as I have researched. BTW, what I came away with from that research was...buy ETFs. Low fees, spread the risk. But...

 

It scares me. I'm afraid that I'll screw it up somehow and lose most of my cash money. It's not particularly rational, as I know about inflation eating cash holdings. Add in FX fluctuations...

 

How does a guy like me pull the trigger? Whack in 20% like you say, and watch what happens? Get used to the sensation, and add on downturns?

 

Don't worry, I won't come looking for you if my fears are realized! 

 

Sorry, I just realized this might be going off topic.

Cash is a legitimate place to be. No need to pull the trigger if you don't feel comfortable playing the stockmarket in whatever form. However, not only is cash a position, but which currency you hold it in can have a substantial impact on what you have to spend as an expat. Your first job is to consider whether you wish to hedge anything out of sterling as it represents some risk as you have been finding out.  Up to you as they say. No magic formulas.

[jeab1980]

1 hour ago, Fairynuff said:

I can't see the GBP recovering much u til brexit gets dumped

Well youll be waiting for a very very long time tben. In fact youll be dead.

Come back in 2 years when the UK finaly leaves and see where the £ is then

[Kieran00001]

28 minutes ago, Craig krup said:

 

Maybe I know two welfare advisers and a number of other (similar) public sector workers, and maybe all these "progressive" people are united in their believe that what is going on is 1) mental, 2) unsustainable, and 3) unknown to the public. Ever think of that? Ever think that devout Muslim women wearing veils are already telling welfare rights advisers that they don't know who the father of their unborn child is, as their husband sits three feet behind them, playing with the other kids? But that's all just Daily Mail gibberish, isn't it? 

 

Check out Tracey's finances (below). Pull the pointer through to 43 minutes. Notice how she earns £500 a month and receives another three grand of other folks' money on top. You think that's sustainable? You think we can make that offer to half the world? 

 

 

 

 

 

The UK spends 2.3 billion on unemployment benefit, that is 0.1% of the annual budget, meanwhile we spend 160 billion on pensions, and guess who it is calling the unemployed unsustainable, the pensioners!

[Craig krup]

"

2 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said:

The UK spends 2.3 billion on unemployment benefit, that is 0.1% of the annual budget, meanwhile we spend 160 billion on pensions, and guess who it is calling the unemployed unsustainable, the pensioners!

And you see that's why people voted Leave, and why they get really, really fed up with the Remain crowd. It's the contempt that I can't stand. The sheer blithe indifference. That utterly immovable smug assurance. 

 

The UK spends £231bn on all forms of welfare, including the pension. About half is on working age welfare, including staggering sums on working tax credit, child tax credit and housing benefit. Unemployment benefit costs peanuts. People who think that unemployment benefit is the issue don't understand anything about the system (see below). 

 

https://fullfact.org/economy/welfare-budget/

 

 

[strikingsunset]

In recent times we have seen Greece on the verge of  financial implosion  several times ,Italy  recently baled out 2 huge banks on a Sunday evening to avoid a knee jerk reaction.

IMHO the euro is a falsified illusion and some point they will not be able to kick the ball into the long grass, as the ball will be deflated.

My best guess is that in 10 years time the UK will be well placed- currency and economy outside the ECC,

What is  tough to    take is how long it will take..

[rickudon]

4 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said:

 

The UK spends 2.3 billion on unemployment benefit, that is 0.1% of the annual budget, meanwhile we spend 160 billion on pensions, and guess who it is calling the unemployed unsustainable, the pensioners!

Assuming that's true, then who are the government going to screw to try and balance the Brexit budget? Then those on retirement may actually get a nasty surprise. (freeze on all pensions, i.e zero lock, or maybe no pensions if you live outside of the UK?). Wait and see.

[whiteman]

or maybe no pensions if you live outside of the UK?

Just like ausy and n.z. do now and I am sure others countries do to and many more are looking at that option as we type

[rickudon]

As for the EU economy and will the EU fall apart, the UK had the slowest growth in the whole of the EU in the last quarter. Even Greece's economy is now growing again ....... part of why the Euro is now getting stronger. No one wants to board a sinking ship (unless you are an illegal migrant!)

[strikingsunset]

1 minute ago, rickudon said:

As for the EU economy and will the EU fall apart, the UK had the slowest growth in the whole of the EU in the last quarter. Even Greece's economy is now growing again ....... part of why the Euro is now getting stronger. No one wants to board a sinking ship (unless you are an illegal migrant!)

I respect your opinion ,but  Greece economy growing from what base - tourism, feta cheese and olive oil

and all these other counties eg Portugal,

[Kieran00001]

13 minutes ago, Craig krup said:

"

And you see that's why people voted Leave, and why they get really, really fed up with the Remain crowd. It's the contempt that I can't stand. The sheer blithe indifference. That utterly immovable smug assurance. 

 

The UK spends £231bn on all forms of welfare, including the pension. About half is on working age welfare, including staggering sums on working tax credit, child tax credit and housing benefit. Unemployment benefit costs peanuts. People who think that unemployment benefit is the issue don't understand anything about the system (see below). 

 

https://fullfact.org/economy/welfare-budget/

 

 

 

Good, glad to see we are on the same page, and I can only presume then that you also understand that without the likes of working tax credits being spent in staggering sums that we would either have to increase wages which could only be done through increasing taxes which would then cause an exodus of many employers thus switching the tax credit top ups for fully dependent unemployed benefits claimant or alternatively allow people to go hungry, which would it be in your utopia? 

[Kieran00001]

8 minutes ago, whiteman said:

or maybe no pensions if you live outside of the UK?

Just like ausy and n.z. do now and I am sure others countries do to and many more are looking at that option as we type

 

That would be worse for the UK tax payer as pensioners would then return and become a burden on the NHS.

[scubascuba3]

If you're a Brit there's one hell of a difference between "funds" and "trusts". If you're holding through Hargreaves Lansdown you'll be humped on expenses and charges on "funds", and - unless you're really cute about how you organize things - they're generally expensive. Closed-end vehicles - investment trusts - are a lot better, as long as you understand a few basic things. 

Only mugs keep investment Funds with Hargreaves. I use Interactive Investor. OEIC Funds and Unit Trusts are pretty much the same without going into detail. Investment Trusts are different altogether.

[sammieuk1]

7 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said:

 

Good, glad to see we are on the same page, and I can only presume then that you also understand that without the likes of working tax credits being spent in staggering sums that we would either have to increase wages which could only be done through increasing taxes which would then cause an exodus of many employers thus switching the tax credit top ups for fully dependent unemployed benefits claimant or alternatively allow people to go hungry, which would it be in your utopia? 

Anyone know if there is a full moon tonight?

[Pilotman]

You cant just consider half the equation.  if your costs are correspondingly lower in LOS then its not as big an issue. 

Edited August 28, 2017 by Pilotman
not complete

[Kieran00001]

2 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Anyone know if there is a full moon tonight?

 

You gotta be crazy not to think you can starve people off benefits, obviously lowering them is the way forward, just look at New Zealand, never mind the countries that increased them like Norway, what do they know with their successful ecconomy and happy populace, low crime and high employment, we need to follow the model of New Zealand with their now record levels of crime, record numbers in jail and 1 in 7 now living in poverty, and all just to appease the rabbid express reading dimwits, great idea.