nattaya09

There's probably already been a few thousand cases circulate through

41.7M 2nd doses as of Dec 01. Another 6.8M with single dose. I assume by "2nd dose", they mean fully vaxed. That would be about 60%

The vaccination rates overall have dropped over the last two weeks . They might have all the willing recipients vaxed. 70% is still within range by mid-January though

I agree with that number (54%). But it's based on the total population of 70 million which includes those under 12 years old as well. My original comment above that you replied to ("..Thailand currently has 77% fully vaxed if you exclude under 12's...") was a response to a comment referencing the population over 12 years old vaxed in Canberra, Australia. As I also mentioned , I should have said 65% as my math was wrong

Thanks, but I can't read Thai

They are reporting the numbers based on the total population, not the eligible (ie: 12 years and older) population. If you note the context of my original reply to CygnusX1 above, we were referencing "eligible" population

Assuming about 15% of the population is under 12 years old, that leaves an eligible population of about 60M. That gives 65% of the eligible population currently fully vaxed currently so I botched my math

Understood. Even the USA is at 80% for those over 12. They usually give the vax rates as a % of total population. Thailand currently has 77% fully vaxed if you exclude under 12's.

That's probably right. If they think they will get 100% of the eligible population vaxed, it won't happen without coercion.

It seems that once you reach about 70% fully vaxed, you have hit the ceiling of willing participants. The UK is about there and their program has been aggressive for almost a year. Thailand will likely hit that threshold probably around the end of December. Of the remaining 30%, a large number have probably had COVID and never knew it.

The Vax program had an abysmal start but they have done well for the last three months. The will be close to 70% fully vaxed by the end of December. That's as far as countries in the west have gotten. After that, the public demand for vaccinations will wane.

Once the entry requirement is reduced to a passport and proof of vaccination, they might start getting meaningful results

They won't get a 100% of the population vaxed. Even the UK is at 67% fully vaxed after almost a year of a very aggressive program. Once Thailand gets to 60-70% likely in December, most of the people who want the vaccine will have gotten it. At that point, hopefully the govt will be confident enough to drop all requirements for international entry except vax proof and passport

They should be at close to 60% by December and 70% by Jan if they keep up the current pace. After that, unvaxed demand will wane

That's what they call in Police work...."a clue"

"....The drill involved 150 people pretending to be tourists......." That sounds about right.

Maybe this means that ALL obstacles except passport and vax proof will be dropped by next summer

"........especially the acceleration of vaccine administration so that each province achieves a 70% coverage....." Most likely they will get to 60% quickly in December and then the curve of willing vaccine recipients will flatten like other places

If their current rate of vaccinations continues, they could be close to 60% of the population by Dec 1. Maybe that's a threshold that gives them the confidence to open these venues. It's probably already well past when they can attract any other than the most spontaneus travelers

I'll see what the rules look like after Christmas before shopping for plane tickets. They aren't there yet

If they mean fully vaxed countrywide, It won't happen by Dec 1 either. Their program is doing much better over the last couple months. If they keep the current rate going, probably 45% by Nov 1 and 60% by Dec 1. They might hit 70% by the end of the year though.

You were vaxed in Florida but what country issued the certificate shown?

Used to be able to make a humble man hard...

About 78% of the eligible population in the US has had at least one dose. Presumably, those with one dose will finish the series in 3 weeks or less. I doubt the remaining 22% would be able to get on a plane to Thailand anyway

As November melts into December and the influx of tourists proves even more underwhelming than feared, maybe they panic and shed a couple more layers of BS. Stay tuned