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Everything posted by Thorgal
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As per your binary (quantitative analysis) observation this would be called "a massacre", while people like me have more tendency to go for qualitative analysis based on more consistent constant factors and variables. Qualitative analysis can be produced with a minimum of intelligence and intellectual competency. The combatant kill ratio statistics that I had in mind was based on previous conflicts/incursions is more or less 1 (IDF) to 20 (Hamas). The experience and equipment of IDF is also contributing to higher Palestinian causalities, whatever the duration and intensity of the conflict. I agree that "replacements" will be needed at Palestinian side, but the critical path of +/-40.000 Hamas soldiers has not yet been reached and I doubt if Hezbollah/Houthi/Iran Quds/... will do nothing to compensate this critical path in Gaza.
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Please check up earlier posts about ICC and Israel. Some people here declared that Israel didn't commit any war crimes, genocide and/or ethnic cleansing (depopulation). OK, fine for me. Even UN senior officials declared the opposite about Israel's' war crimes, genocide and/or ethnic cleansing (depopulation).
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I do listen for instance to an ancient French Brigade General to know what he thinks and to listen to his advice as an ancient NATO general and foreign legion commander with many combat experience. I didn't promote myself as a "strategist" just by repeating his words... You would be right if I didn't name him...with his quote... Palestinian low budget DIY flip-flop militants made some 15 holes in thick concrete and made unfortunately many pogroms on a rave party and Kibbutzim in the region without being intercepted. You don't need to be a strategist to understand who applied Sun Tzu ?
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For beginners : My quote from previous post : "Hamas had 15 years preparations. If I was an Israeli General I would never start a ground offensive. I repeat NEVER." https://aseannow.com/topic/1308598-israel-is-at-war/?do=findComment&comment=18472223
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A French General commented on the ground invasion of Gaza in terms of difficulty and area control : If you liked Mariupol and Bachmut, you gonna love Gaza.
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I'm not exited at all. I'm just answering your question. Many RPG parts are DIY from melted scrap. Rocket propellant is made from sugar and fertilizer. Not the fuel used in cars or generators as suggested by other posters before that Hamas claimed hospital generator fuel for rockets. Hamas had 15 years preparations. If I was an Israeli General I would never start a ground offensive. I repeat NEVER.
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Quote from link : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9M133_Kornet 1,000–1,200 mm of RHA behind ERA 3–3.5 m of concrete "On 4 September 2023, a video emerged from Robotyne which showed the first combat loss of the Challenger 2 tank.[72] The tank was immobilized by a mine, then hit by a 9M133 Kornet missile and burst into flames, its turret was separated from the vehicle and the commanders cupola was blown off.[73] Russian state-controlled news agency TASS reported on 8 September that two British-made tanks had been destroyed by Kornets.[74] In October 2023, Hezbollah used Kornet missiles during engagements with Israeli forces after the onset of the 2023 Israel-Hamas War."
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For beginners : Quote from link : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yasin_(RPG) "According to fighters from Popular Resistance Committees's Saladin brigades, the Yasin was able to take down a Merkava Mk. 3 on an undisclosed date by firing it at a "weak point".[2] However, it is more effective in urban warfare, able to destroy brick walls and penetrate a 21 cm steel plate from 150 meters,[2] although the ITIC suggests 200 mm (20 cm).[16]"
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I've heard that the DIY Hamas RPG can penetrate minimal 200 millimeters steel. They also have Russian Kornet replica's that can penetrate minimal 1.200 millimeters of steel. What kind of new reinforced concrete (RI) fence do you have in mind? I think only the Israeli Navy eliminated all improvised threats from the beaches.
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For beginners : Can we consider the Gaza strip as an open prison camp or a concentration camp for 15 years? 3 miles sea limit, fully barricaded 6m heigh and 30m deep, quantities of import, export, patients, work permits, travel documents, under Israeli control The ICC prosecutor (not me) will also deal with this factor.
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For advanced : The third item has (also) been confirmed by the French lawyer Mr. Gilles Devers in the YT clip. He explained that art. 6 is applicable under at least 3 sub conditions : see in bold previous post. https://aseannow.com/topic/1308598-israel-is-at-war/?do=findComment&comment=18471687 Genocide is mostly described and understood in the fact of killing a population (the physical aspect) : as explained in TV debates, newspapers, social media,... ICC extends the legal term "genocide" also as : demolishing urban living places, churches, mosques, schools, shops, etc... But also blocking any access to food, medical supplies, fuel, free transportation, etc... Depopulation, by forcing people to move to South Gaza. That's why I was against the bombing, depopulation and blockade since the beginning of the conflict. With a lot of bad jacketing to me as result...
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It's Islamophobic...
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Can ICC prosecutors come into Gaza with permission from Israel under Israeli bombing ?
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We have some Muslim members on AN. Is this still OK as per forum rules to criticize publicly a religion "as stupid" ?
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For advanced : Ashkelon was always a Philistine capital in Biblical times.
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Is Palestine a state/country for UN : YES Is Palestine a state/country for ICC : YES Is Palestine subject of genocide : YES Is the lawyer starting the procedure in Den Hague on 9th of November 2023 : YES Cheers
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For advanced : https://www.bytheeast.com/2023/10/20/gilles-devers-on-gaza-the-notion-of-terrorism-does-not-exist-under-international-law/amp/ - still faster than wiki ...
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Genocide as per ICC article 6 : https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/icc-statute-1998/article-6#:~:text=Article 6 - Genocide,-Genocide&text=(c) Deliberately inflicting on the,the group to another group. Genocide : For the purpose of this Statute, "genocide" means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: (a) Killing members of the group; (b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; (d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
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It's in French, and thus not according to forum rules. note : I speak 5 languages...so I'm not limited in my resources...
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For advanced : https://il.usembassy.gov/opposing-international-criminal-court-attempts-to-affirm-territorial-jurisdiction-over-the-palestinian-situation/ https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/CourtRecords/CR2021_01165.PDF Again, I don't need wiki...and euh for most similar case to Gaza war now : for the Rohinga's was it Gambia (state) that filed the complaint to ICC because Rohinga's had/have no state recognition to ICC/UN... https://aseannow.com/topic/1308598-israel-is-at-war/?do=findComment&comment=18471610
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I'm faster and better than Wiki...
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I've got it from the French lawyer Mr. Gilles Devers, and he's representing the Palestinian State (not only Hamas).
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9th November 2023 : Palestinian Authority will prosecute Israel in the International Crime Court (ICC) at Den Hague for genocide (art. 6). Palestinian State has been recognized since 5/02/2021 for East Jerusalem, Gaza and the West Bank.
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I think many Russian AN members in SE Asia like to follow their news through Tass. I use mostly the French channel. Russian and French people have a long tradition in having good/stable diplomatic relationships. Tass also informed me that 2 Chinese fleets went to the Persian Gulf this week. There was little or no news coverage in the Western media and it can be relevant for the US carrier fleet coming in the same direction in front of Iran... That's why I've put the Iranian/Hezbollah meeting and possible involvement in the latest Gaza war. Again, no much western press agencies are allowed in Iran and/or Lebanon... That some news outlets are "blacklisted" like : Aljazeera, BBC, Tass, RT is OK for me, but some news in this Gaza-war topic comes sometimes first hand from these "blacklisted" news outlets.
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Was the information of Tass wrong ? No much western press agencies are allowed in Iran and/or Lebanon...