lostoday

I don't give my GF anything per month; she has a job. I give small gifts now and then (like a dress, or a pair of shoes) and pretty nice gifts for her birthday and new year's. She pays for her own apartment. She makes the car payments 100%. I pay part of the insurance, because she drives me around a lot. Pretty much exactly the arrangement I had with Western GFs in the past.

I don't get people who pay their GF. Seems weird to me.

Did your father pay for your home, health and education? My father was like you and he skipped out and didn't pay for anything.

The OP says to save the Thai economy the poor should be given lots of money* based on how poor they are and the baht should be devalued 20% from today's level to stimulate exports.

Does anyone disagree with that?

*To stimulate sustainable domestic spending, especially among the poor, the Thai government should increase public expenditures in the provinces to at least one half of the total by 2025, up from nearly 28 percent in 2012. Support should be determined based on the recipients’ income rather than their localities or the crops they cultivate, as has traditionally been the case.

Thaksins polices did nothing of the sort, and at the time were utterly mind blowing for Thailand. They didn't consider Thai societal norms.

Look where it got him.....

From the OP, "In a time of prosperity (Thaksins times), the Prayuth government might have been able to keep pleasing its main supporters without scuttling the economy. Not these days. Last weekend the junta’s legitimacy took another hit when its proxies voted down its own draft constitution — a move widely seen as a ploy to delay elections that had been planned for early 2016 and extend the generals’ rule.

So what you are saying is that the OP is telling me something I already knew.

Thanks....

Did you know that the answer to Thailand's economic problems were "the Thai government should increase public expenditures in the provinces to at least one half of the total by 2025, up from nearly 28 percent in 2012. Support should be determined based on the recipients’ income rather than their localities or the crops they cultivate, as has traditionally been the case.

The transfers should also be made conditional on the beneficiaries’ compliance with, for example, vaccination requirements and the enrollment of children in school. Promoting socially responsible behavior in exchange for funds would not only serve the public good; it would also go some way toward appeasing the Bangkok elites who resent redistribution policies as a form of state charity.

Devaluing the baht — by, say, 20 percent?"

Yes, he originally he Piryathorn because he is blue blooded as they come and the go to man who is a complete numpty.

Massive massive error.

Now they have Somkid who is rolling out precisely the same ideas he had before. Situation is completely different than it was I'm trt time. Somkids policies are not some wonderful new discovery.

They have been used and accepted the world over for rural development. Of course thailand now owns them as thaksinomics or blatant populism depending on your politics.

Whilst Thailand continues to try and reinvent the wheels, the world is turning and people are innovating all over the world without having to ask permission from a pooyai. Thailand is neither exceptional or unique.

People are people, u just need to understand by which rules they are playing the game...

Yes, from the OP, "Gen. Prayuth seems finally to have realized these mistakes, and that the economy is his government’s Achilles’ heel."

umm, hey Lostaday, is it possible for you to compose an original thought? All this copy and paste propaganda make you look like you lost a day...

Quoting the OP is not propaganda nor off topic.

From the OP, "The return of autocracy to Thailand is putting a hole in the people’s pockets. Sixteen months after the coup that brought down the democratically elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra, incomes in rural areas, where more than 34 million Thais live, have collapsed. Exports fell by 4.9 percent during the first half of 2015, according to the Thai government."

All well and good with the qualified economist bit except, in Thailand you also need to pay close attention to the sociology part of the equation otherwise it will all blow up. In the past the economic tweaks that have been taken in consideration of the sociology, try and make major tweaks to it, without consideration for the masses of poor and boom.

Thaksins polices did nothing of the sort, and at the time were utterly mind blowing for Thailand. They didn't consider Thai societal norms.

Look where it got him.....

From the OP, "In a time of prosperity (Thaksins times), the Prayuth government might have been able to keep pleasing its main supporters without scuttling the economy. Not these days. Last weekend the junta’s legitimacy took another hit when its proxies voted down its own draft constitution — a move widely seen as a ploy to delay elections that had been planned for early 2016 and extend the generals’ rule.

Removing graft and corruption from Thai society will reduce the standard of living in Thailand to that of undeveloped African countries!

Only for the corrupt people. The rest of us profit as in any nation that is not corrupt. The standard of living rises in proportion to the demise of corruption.

Yes, he originally he Piryathorn because he is blue blooded as they come and the go to man who is a complete numpty.

Massive massive error.

Now they have Somkid who is rolling out precisely the same ideas he had before. Situation is completely different than it was I'm trt time. Somkids policies are not some wonderful new discovery.

They have been used and accepted the world over for rural development. Of course thailand now owns them as thaksinomics or blatant populism depending on your politics.

Whilst Thailand continues to try and reinvent the wheels, the world is turning and people are innovating all over the world without having to ask permission from a pooyai. Thailand is neither exceptional or unique.

People are people, u just need to understand by which rules they are playing the game...

Yes, from the OP, "Gen. Prayuth seems finally to have realized these mistakes, and that the economy is his government’s Achilles’ heel."

Wow, how arrogant is that, one suspects self serving also.

You may not like the degree to which Thailand has developed and you may wish it were at a future point that was closer to that of your home country, but making changes that suit the foreigner and make his/her life easier/better doesn't really help the 35 million rural nationals who are native to Thailand.

It rather basic; they will learn over time through osmosis.

In no way to I wish it were like 'my home country'. I just wish it were more fair, logical and intelligent, for them as much as for me/others.

I think a lot of people from the west make the same mistake, they look at the country and the way it operates and think, my goodness, it doesn't make sense, so much is broken. But what's really being said is that they don't understand what they're seeing and that's quite reasonable. Most of the comments on this subject, ways to improve the Thai economy, are ways that might improve a western economy and don't necessarily fit here since most of them involve a complete make over everything here and that of course is an impossible task, not least of all because of the time involved, not to mention the cultural barriers.

So the solution is to pump money to the poor because of their higher propensity to consume. There is no mysticism in how people handle money, when they are poor.

That's the wonder of economics. People all have similar basic needs and wants.

This is part of the laugh of commenting on Thailand and the way it's run. They say corruption is bad, they say they want to stop it, and they achieve virtually nothing in trying to stop it.

Why? Because they believe the universal rules don't apply to them. But, when eventually this corruption gets to be so serious it causes a problem (look at the fact a bomber bribed his way in, or the fish will be banned) they get all shocked about it, and spring to action.

It's a study in social sciences and perpetual procrastination.

I don't agree, from the OP, "Gen. Prayuth seems finally to have realized these mistakes, and that the economy is his government’s Achilles’ heel. He sacked his economic team last month, replacing its head, Pridiyathorn Devakula, a former central bank governor from the conservative policy establishment, with Somkid Jatusripitak, the architect of many progressive social and economic policies when he was finance minister under Thaksin Shinawatra, the populist former prime minister and brother of Ms. Yingluck. Gen. Prayuth’s government also recently set up a national savings fund long in the making, which aims to help up to 30 million Thais without pensions."

The people, for the most part, are not capable of deciding such a thing effectively. That's why past governments have been so ineffective at governing because the populace could be bought for a few thousand baht each and that's why corruption was allowed to run rampant. This democracy thing, it isn't for everyone.

Your post saddens me.

Go out and meet some rice farmers or corn growers.You will find they are very decent people, specially in the North.

This yellow shirt concept that they do not wash is pure propaganda which you have fallen for.

Democracy does not work anywhere, but it comes closer to reflecting the aspirations of the people than any other form of government.

The fact that you are so dismissive of your fellow humans is dismaying. And yes the rural Thai are human beings.

In all democratic societies votes are bought but in some cases it is called advertising. I concede in some cases the money promised is not paid.

But at the end of the day the people should decide no matter how many faults and weaknesses you and the general thinks they possess.

When you look down on other people, just remember " He who casts the first stone... "

It makes little difference who decides what. Singapore is not a democracy and they have a good economy. The Junta can decide to make Thailand a successful economy or the people by a vote can decide to make Thailand a successful democracy. The old saying, "it's the economy stupid" is very appropriate to Thailand as well as many other countries. That's why this thread is so interesting as it proposes concrete ways to save the Thai economy.

To Mr Build,

What I want for you Mr Build is freedom of speech and assembly, something the Thai people do not have.

What I want for the Thai people is for them to be able to choose their own leaders from among the civilian population, be it Abhisit, Yingluck or whoever they choose.

I submit that a civilian leader would better reflect the economic needs of all the Thai people. It is the Thai people who should decide not you and I.

What you, I or anybody here wants or would like to see is meaningless.

It is what the Thai people want that matters. It is all down to them on one side or the other, rich or poor, military or civilian, honest persons or thieves.

It is their problem to solve in their own way and there is very little that any of us farangs can do to affect it. In a local context we may be able to convince our families and friends but that will only be a microcosm of what WE think is needed and who is to say if we are right or wrong?

I would look to a qualified economist to say if the proposals for example in this OP are right or wrong. Dr. Forrest E. Cookson is eminently qualified to advise on Thailand economics and the current government would do well to listen to him.

Interesting to point out that a group of posters have just tried to take over the thread with a series of off topic posts that have nothing to do with the OP. I'm going to sleep perhaps some other conscientious person will take on the job of stopping them from changing the topic which is a very good article from the NYT about saving the Thai economy.

If you have a problem with posts that you believe are off topic that report them to the moderators. I am sure that all the posters will accept the moderators words rather than yours.

Most of the posts are in response to other posts. Do you think it is wrong for posters to reply to them?

On topic responses to on topic posts are on topic.

From the OP, "The junta, if it wants to stay in power, must embrace tough measures that run against the vested interests of its core constituents. It has no other choice, and neither do they — at least not if they hope to maintain the system of soft economic dictatorship that has served them so well."

Just a thought to all poster who are wasting their time commenting on a topic that will never be publicly appreciated.

If the Thais used collective intelligence, rather than comparative scenarios, to base their future actions, we would all be better off.

It's not about this one country, over that one country.

It's about best practices for all.

Please return to your regularly scheduled programming....

Agreed, but it is interesting to see what proposals and concepts the collective intelligence of mostly western posters on this forum can come up with. As far as I can tell they mostly include a return to past corrupt regime or the adoption of western style measures, far too late in the day, surely a sign that far too many people just don't get it, even if they say and think they do.

The basic proposals of this thread are spelled out in the OP "To stimulate sustainable domestic spending, especially among the poor, the Thai government should increase public expenditures in the provinces to at least one half of the total by 2025, up from nearly 28 percent in 2012. Support should be determined based on the recipients’ income rather than their localities or the crops they cultivate, as has traditionally been the case.

The transfers should also be made conditional on the beneficiaries’ compliance with, for example, vaccination requirements and the enrollment of children in school. Promoting socially responsible behavior in exchange for funds would not only serve the public good; it would also go some way toward appeasing the Bangkok elites who resent redistribution policies as a form of state charity.

Devaluing the baht — by, say, 20 percent — also is necessary, to stimulate exports of goods such as rice, rubber, electronics and cars. The standard risks of devaluation would be minimal: Thailand has a tiny stock of foreign-denominated debt, and prices for consumer goods are falling."

It is easy to read and not amateur ideas. The above are from the OP and written by:

Dr. Forrest E. Cookson

* Ph.D. ABT, Economics, Georgetown University, 1961

* M.A., Ph.D. ABT, Physics, Princeton University, 1957

* B.S. Physics and Mathematics, Clemson University, 1953

Teaching Experience

* Georgetown University, Washington D.C.

* Thammassat University, Thailand

* North-South University, Bangladesh

Others

1. President, American Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh 1992-2001

2. Occasional lecturer, economics, North-South University 2000- continuing

3. Vice-President, American Bangladesh Economic Forum 1988, 1990- 1992

4. Member, Board of Director, MIDAS [Non-banking financial institution], 1995- 2002

5. Member, Board of American Alumni Association, Bangladesh 1998- 2007

6. Board Member, Institute of Management Consultants Bangladesh 1998- 2007

7. Member, Advisory Board on Change in Rural Thailand (ARPA), 1969- 1970

8. Member, Scientific Advisory Group, Advanced Research Project Agency (ARPA), U.S. Department of Defense, Thailand 1967- 1970

As you can see he has both excellent education credentials and experience from the West and Thailand.

Wow, how arrogant is that, one suspects self serving also.

You may not like the degree to which Thailand has developed and you may wish it were at a future point that was closer to that of your home country, but making changes that suit the foreigner and make his/her life easier/better doesn't really help the 35 million rural nationals who are native to Thailand.

It rather basic; they will learn over time through osmosis.

In no way to I wish it were like 'my home country'. I just wish it were more fair, logical and intelligent, for them as much as for me/others.

I think a lot of people from the west make the same mistake, they look at the country and the way it operates and think, my goodness, it doesn't make sense, so much is broken. But what's really being said is that they don't understand what they're seeing and that's quite reasonable. Most of the comments on this subject, ways to improve the Thai economy, are ways that might improve a western economy and don't necessarily fit here since most of them involve a complete make over everything here and that of course is an impossible task, not least of all because of the time involved, not to mention the cultural barriers.

The OP who is based in Bangkok shows a good understanding of Thai problems for example writes, "To stimulate sustainable domestic spending, especially among the poor, the Thai government should increase public expenditures in the provinces to at least one half of the total by 2025, up from nearly 28 percent in 2012. Support should be determined based on the recipients’ income rather than their localities or the crops they cultivate, as has traditionally been the case.

The transfers should also be made conditional on the beneficiaries’ compliance with, for example, vaccination requirements and the enrollment of children in school. Promoting socially responsible behavior in exchange for funds would not only serve the public good; it would also go some way toward appeasing the Bangkok elites who resent redistribution policies as a form of state charity."

As you can see nothing like a Western economy which you mistakenly write in your post.

The problem with cutting interest rates is that it increases lending/debt, especially among the poor and government spending on infrastructure projects at this stage is likely too late to be beneficial, simply, it would take too long for those funds to cycle into the economy. One suspects one of the main answers might be to to prop up the rural poor whilst waiting for central spending to kick in, further tax incentives to business may also add some value.

Government spending, through debt, is just a transfer of wealth to a banker somewhere.

The best investment is in yourself, through education.

Mirroring the success of others, and avoiding their mistakes, is a smart play.

That's a price to be paid in this instance perhaps because I suspect Thailand does not have thirty years plus to implement an new improved educational system, the current economic problems need attention today.

The OP, "The junta, if it wants to stay in power, must embrace tough measures that run against the vested interests of its core constituents. It has no other choice, and neither do they — at least not if they hope to maintain the system of soft economic dictatorship that has served them so well."

The problem with cutting interest rates is that it increases lending/debt, especially among the poor and government spending on infrastructure projects at this stage is likely too late to be beneficial, simply, it would take too long for those funds to cycle into the economy. One suspects one of the main answers might be to to prop up the rural poor whilst waiting for central spending to kick in, further tax incentives to business may also add some value.

Government spending, through debt, is just a transfer of wealth to a banker somewhere.

The best investment is in yourself, through education.

Mirroring the success of others, and avoiding their mistakes, is a smart play.

The OP, "To stimulate sustainable domestic spending, especially among the poor, the Thai government should increase public expenditures in the provinces to at least one half of the total by 2025, up from nearly 28 percent in 2012. Support should be determined based on the recipients’ income rather than their localities or the crops they cultivate, as has traditionally been the case.

The transfers should also be made conditional on the beneficiaries’ compliance with, for example, vaccination requirements and the enrollment of children in school. Promoting socially responsible behavior in exchange for funds would not only serve the public good; it would also go some way toward appeasing the Bangkok elites who resent redistribution policies as a form of state charity."

The problem with cutting interest rates is that it increases lending/debt, especially among the poor and government spending on infrastructure projects at this stage is likely too late to be beneficial, simply, it would take too long for those funds to cycle into the economy. One suspects one of the main answers might be to to prop up the rural poor whilst waiting for central spending to kick in, further tax incentives to business may also add some value.

Where does the OP suggest cutting interest rates? OP states, "The Thai state spent more than 72 percent of public funds in greater Bangkok, where only 17 percent of Thais lived, according to 2012 figures from the World Bank, the most recent data available. Mr. Somkid has already announced a $4 billion stimulus package for the rural economy, such as interest-free loans through the state-directed microfinance scheme. But these are essentially unconditional, short-term handouts that will at best cause a small and brief burst in consumption."

Article on NY times about Thailand growth analysis. Google NY Times Thai economy for article two days ago.

We all know rich Thais want to buy their dollars on the cheap and only when that's done will they will let the baht move and maybe boost exports creating growth unrelated to relying on Chinese tourists.

I thinkthis is the article you are talking about, "The Bangkok-based establishment also fears the political implications of a devaluation. When the baht collapsed in 1997, many fortunes were wiped out. Then the whole economy collapsed, discrediting the traditional elites’ stewardship. That in turn led to the adoption of a liberal constitution that restrained their political power and paved the way for the rise of Mr. Thaksin, whose progressive policies weakened their grip even more."

If anyone thinks the BOT is propping up THB to help the elite they need serious help. BOT has long had a stated policy of intervening in markets to smooth out the rise and/or decline of THB so as to aid exporters and their ability to forecast cost/profit and that is exactly what they are doing currently, in line with the managed float policy.

OP "The Bangkok-based establishment also fears the political implications of a devaluation. When the baht collapsed in 1997, many fortunes were wiped out. Then the whole economy collapsed, discrediting the traditional elites’ stewardship. That in turn led to the adoption of a liberal constitution that restrained their political power and paved the way for the rise of Mr. Thaksin, whose progressive policies weakened their grip even more."

Wow, how arrogant is that, one suspects self serving also.

You may not like the degree to which Thailand has developed and you may wish it were at a future point that was closer to that of your home country, but making changes that suit the foreigner and make his/her life easier/better doesn't really help the 35 million rural nationals who are native to Thailand.

Your post has nothing to do with the topic but the OP does say, "In a time of prosperity, the Prayuth government might have been able to keep pleasing its main supporters without scuttling the economy. Not these days. Last weekend the junta’s legitimacy took another hit when its proxies voted down its own draft constitution — a move widely seen as a ploy to delay elections that had been planned for early 2016 and extend the generals’ rule."

Bring in experts from outside as advisers. Economists and social engineers badly needed to guide military rulers who really don't have a clue.

Haven't you ever noticed that they like people to come here and educate them. (read: share corporate secrets)

Then they steal they idea and talk bad about the people who taught them.

If they really want to 'save the Thai economy', they need to do the following. It's not brain surgery.

Repel the criminal part of the defamation laws.

Allow non-Thai lawyers to practice here.

Overhaul the visa system and make it practical for long term expats.

Allow foreigners to own land.

Allow foreigners to own 100% of their investments, w/out the 4 employee per work permit requirement.

Streamline the business process.

Remove all costs for closing a business. (an expense saddled upon the business owners to create an income stream)

Overhaul the education system so there will be qualified people for the jobs.

Import and staff psychiatrists that the Thai populace can speak with for free, so they can somehow, over time, acknowledge and learn from their many, many mistakes.

The OP suggests none of these things and their discussion is off topic maybe you should start your own topic. What the OP does suggest is "Devaluing the baht — by, say, 20 percent — also is necessary, to stimulate exports of goods such as rice, rubber, electronics and cars. The standard risks of devaluation would be minimal: Thailand has a tiny stock of foreign-denominated debt, and prices for consumer goods are falling. Yet the Bank of Thailand, the central bank, has been reluctant to significantly weaken the baht. The power elites, facing a sluggish economy at home, have been investing overseas, incurring liabilities in foreign currency; they want to buy their dollars for cheap."

This could be a reasonable discussion, were it not for posters constantly being told by a would be mod. that comments are off topic!

OP, "he only way to jolt Thailand out of its economic stagnation is to implement two measures that are sure to upset the Bangkok-based traditional elites: dramatically raise rural incomes (to spur domestic consumption) and aggressively devalue the baht (to boost exports)."

Wow I had no idea that I was so powerful and helped Suthep and the general take over the country. Do you think I will get a medal?

Now glenmohr I will ask you the same question that I asked peterjackson (who still has not replied).

Where did I say that this government was legitimate apart from saying that they have been accepted by the highest person in the land? If he accepted them then that makes them legitimate, unless you think you and your words are more impotant to the Thai people than his are.

Is it against the criminal code of Thailand for a convicted criminal fugitive to make his sister the PM of Thailand and then run the country by Skype and phone calls. Do you think it is legitimate for ministers of state, the PM herself (family visits aside), MPs of the ruling party at the time, High ranking police officers and some senior army officers as well to visit the fugitive in many palces in the world?

There are very few posters on TVF who can have ANY effect on democracy or free speech in Thailand as we(and I include myself) have NO say in the way that Thailand is run.

You have no idea of who I am and what I believe in at all.

What you have said (in your own words)

quote" I believe the current ruler should resign, hand Thailand over to the Thai people, which should include the rural portion of the population, and retire back to his barracks."

So you belive that you have a right to an opinion but that I do not have that same right.

Have you personally done a survey of even 0.001% of the Thai people across the whole country and asked them how they feel about the current status?

I agree that the General should open up his bank accounts to scrutiny in the same way that ALL Thai politicians over the last 30 or 40 years should do so, That however may be embarrasing for many of them.

Do you realise that the fugitives fortune increased by 450% whilst his sister was the nominal PM?

What is your concept of democracy. The sort of democracy where all people can speak freely, yet you accuse me of arrogance for expressing my opinion.

You really have no idea about me at all.

quote "You Sir ,need to examine your own arrogance in coming to a country and giving support to a wicked regime against the wishes of the local populations."

What or who gives you the right to speak for all the wishes of the local populations"?

Off topic nothing to do with the OP.

I was responding to another poster, Am I not allowed to do that?

If you have a problem please complain to the moderators. I am quite happy to listen to them and take their advice.

Try posting something on topic instead of trying to hijack the thread.

Real G.D.P. growth slowed to 2.8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2015, down from 3.0 percent in the first quarter — and that includes the effects of a surge in tourism; discounting that, G.D.P. actually shrank. (The recent bombing of the Erawan Shrine in Bangkok will dampen foreign visits for a time.) Imports in capital goods have been falling for years, despite the state’s ever more generous incentives for foreign investors.

Thais are pouring idle cash into luxury condominiums and high-end shopping malls. Some $1.5 billion have been earmarked for the construction near Bangkok’s historic center of IconSiam, a shopping mall with retail space the size of 75 soccer fields. Touted as a symbol of “eternal prosperity,” this grand palace of commerce is also a monument to the junta’s misguided economic vision: the promise of consumption with too few consumers who have the income to fulfill it.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/855145-how-to-save-the-thai-economy-opinion/

Junta-huggers! Is that like coup apologists? Wow, where do you guys dream this stuff up!!

After Thaksin, Samak and Yingluck I would support Kermit the Frog if he becomes PM.

No one can be as bad as these 3.....Two are already officially criminals and Yingluck also soon.

Yes, I imagine you would. I think we all understand that.

But is what he said correct or not?

As for Yingluck she should not be in the equation yet until the trial has been completed and the verdict, one way or another is confirmed.

Off topic post another attempt to divert the topic to another topic.

Interesting to point out that a group of posters have just tried to take over the thread with a series of off topic posts that have nothing to do with the OP. I'm going to sleep perhaps some other conscientious person will take on the job of stopping them from changing the topic which is a very good article from the NYT about saving the Thai economy.