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Everything posted by dinsdale
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Sadly it's the reality. The term poking the bear means to deliberately provoke or antagonise someone more powerful. Russia is clearly more powerful than Ukraine. You can deflect from the reality of my post all you like but the fact is Putin will retaliate. The bear has been poked. Also say what you like but this is escalation and probably the largest of the war so far. Sadly many more lives will be lost as IMO Putin will hit back and hit back hard.
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Talks are ongoing. This attack will not help. Putin will 100% retaliate. The size of this retaliation is not going to be small. As I have posted previously I would not be surprised if some Oreshniks will be heading toward Ukraine. Add to this a massive drone and missile strike. Poking the bear is not what anyone with any sense wants to see and this is exactly what this drone strike from Zelensky has done. De-escalation not tit for tat escalation which is now immanent.
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Things look a little different now. The second map is Sumy. I'd take most of the grey zone here which denotes "in dispute" as red denoting "Russian controlled". This is IMO the beginning of the buffer zone Putin is talking about and will expand. The blue zone in the second map is what's left of the territory held in Kursk by the Ukrainian's. As I stated before this is now only around 5 km2 with the Russians now occupying somewhere between 106-170 km2. DeepState maps are always a bit slow to update. https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/51.1211959/35.0587463
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An interesting comment. Why do they want tanks? What Ukraine really needs is lots of artillery and artillery shells, plenty of anti air defences, loads of long range missiles and drones by the 10's of thousands but above all Ukraine needs boots on the ground and this they will not get from NATO or the EU.
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A paper tiger that as of now is defeating Ukraine. Reality is without massive support from the west Ukraine cannot win militarily. Some tanks here and there, some cruise missiles, some jets aint going to change the tide. If no agreement is made during the summer months the map is going to look a lot different. Already >100 km2 has been taken in Sumy in around a week to ten days. The failed incursion into to the Kursk Oblast has all but disappeared (only around 5 km2 now held out of what was once 1000 km2 ) and the eastern front is continuing to move west. Can't see where you get "paper tiger" from. Maybe it was just a thought bubble without any rational thought behind it.
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It's not word games at all. This is very simplistic. A declaration of war is a formal statement. As I previously said we all know this is a war but if Putin does declare a formal state of war escalation could be massive. IMHO he won't do this. No need. As I have pointed out many times Russia is winning the ground war. What we'll see from Putin instead is a heavy retaliation for the drone strike.
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. As I pointed out before Russia has NOT declared war on Ukraine. Yes, of course there is war but it's a "police action" according to Putin. An official declaration of war is a big step up. More rockets, more drones with targeting being broadened. The ground war will continue going the way it is but Putin might not stop after taking the four regions and having established a buffer zone which is underway with an increasing incursion into Sumy.
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It matters a lot. So far Russia has used a fraction of it's available force (not talking nukes). If Russia declares war the escalation will be massive.
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