Lacessit

Models are based on assumptions, sometimes from fact, sometimes not. I'm a model sceptic, it only takes one assumption to be incorrect, and the whole model collapses like a house of cards. Prove me wrong, show me in the history of modelling there are more accurate models than inaccurate ones.

I did read one headline that claimed Putin had tasked 400 special forces soldiers to assassinate the Ukrainian PM. I'd say returning the favor would be quite in order. I remember the British dented German morale quite badly when they bombed Berlin, trashing Goering's boast it would never happen. Perhaps the Ukrainians should start thinking along those lines, remember when Mathias Rust landed in Red Square?

That's a statistical sample of one, I would need a bigger sample size. Only time will tell if BTC is a Ponzi or not. It took the American SEC over 40 years to catch up with Madoff. Saying older people are wrong because they reject a form of "investment" they don't understand is wrong in itself. What is your evidence cryptocurrencies are NOT a scam?

Not strange at all. I understood it, and I'm an old fart.

Guilty as charged. I'm solvent, have no debt, I'll be leaving money when I die. Gold, silver and platinum. I've seen timber plantations, property funds, CFD's and CDO's come and go. To me, a stream of electrons is even more ephemeral. Why is it the young think they are smarter than the old? We have the benefit of experience. Floating around in cyberspace may give you the knowledge to change a car tire, but nothing beats actually doing it.

Something to fill in the time, I'm going to watch Reacher instead.

I suppose I'll get to that eventually.

I might just surprise you. My pulse rate is under 60 bpm, look up where that puts me in terms in terms of physical fitness for my age. No chore for me, I am always looking forward to my next bonk. It's something for you to look forward to.

While I accept that, IME my GF has never put limits on the amount of sex I can have.

I'm afraid we are discussing at cross-purposes, if you care to go back through my posts on this thread IMO you will find I am a few light years away from being an apologist for Russia. The problem IS Putin, he is obsessed with restoring the USSR, and has said so. He also has a track record of poisoning/murdering any effective opposition over that 20 years. It's like one hand clapping, how do Russians vote for anyone else if there is no one to lead? You're not wrong in saying the cost will be high for ordinary Russians, but lumping them in with a megalomaniac who has surrounded himself with yes-men is not being an apologist.

I am wondering if the OP spends a lot of time looking at his reflection in a pool.

Could you please explain why independent Russian media has been instructed to stop referring to the invasion of the Ukraine as war, etc., and only use the term "special military operation" under threat of heavy fines and/or prison? You think that is not censorship? Russia ( Putin ) is blocking Twitter and Facebook to stop its citizens from discussing the number of bodybags occupied by their children that will be coming back to their neighborhoods. That is censorship too. This war is going to impact them personally, when exports are curtailed the only people with money will be the oligarchs, who are running out of places to hide their wealth, and won't be able to transfer it safely. Putin and his generals planned a clean, surgical military operation that would take over Ukraine in a few days. They prepared the ground with a barrage of propaganda over the last 6 months. He is now finding out, as von Moltke said, no plan survives contact with the enemy.

I would have accepted the Eastern European nations joining NATO are doing it for a reason, and move on. In my thinking, with Russia's military might, those nations joined NATO for defense. It's ludicrous to think of NATO attacking Russia. Of course, Putin's thinking is different. He sees NATO as a threat. He would do better to be focusing on the East. History shows the most grievous wounds inflicted on the Russian psyche originated there. In the West, Russia gave as good as it got. The official language of Ukraine is Ukrainian. The fact some Ukrainians speak Russian is about as relevant as Dutchmen speaking German.

Critical thinking says Ukrainians do not speak Russian, they speak Ukrainian. Different alphabet, different vocabulary. https://askanydifference.com/difference-between-russian-and-ukrainian/ The historical and cultural claims IMO are BS, the strategic claims may be valid from a Russian point of view. I can buy a need for the Russians to prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO. I don't buy the need for an invasion to achieve that end. One does not need critical thinking to know Putin wants to restore the USSR to its former "glory". He has said it himself. His idea of that concept, and those of the Ukraine and Baltic states, probably differ substantially. Remove Putin, and I suspect the Russian hierarchy would become much more pragmatic, a la Gorbachev.

Von Moltke: " No plan survives contact with the enemy". Mike Tyson: " Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth". I don't know what the true figures are either, but I'd say the plan is probably ailing.

I understand it was Thomas Macaulay who remarked on the Russian aristocracy "dripping with pearls and vermin". "Journey into Russia" by Sir Lauren van der Post is one of the best books I have read on how ordinary Russians are generous and hospitable, while subject to one of the world's most stifling political systems, and led by people with all the wrong motives. Peter and Catherine were probably the only leaders they had that were worthy of the name.

Latest news: The EU and USA will cut Russian banks out of the SWIFT payment system. In trying to restore the USSR, Putin does not realize he is now taking his country back to the depths of the Cold War, when Russia stagnated. It is ordinary Russians who will suffer, not that he cares. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-27/russia-ukraine-war-live-blog-updates-kyiv/100865142#live-blog-post-1209109667

I seem to remember America was supplying Stinger missiles to the Afghans when Russia was occupying that country, history is repeating itself. I think the Ukrainians will keep on fighting even if the Russians succeed in occupying the major cities, it's a big country with a lot of scope for guerrilla warfare. They are not craven poltroons.

I call that dodging the question. You're on ignore now, because I find your abject attitude towards a thief and murderer quite disgusting.

Thailand is an island, amphibious transport is required to invade. America has the biggest and best-equipped submarine fleet in the world, it's a no-brainer what those subs would be doing.

Quite true; however, that's ignoring the fact that like bitcoin, it is getting more energy-intensive. There was a time mining companies would not look at any gold deposit that assayed less than 10 grams per tonne. Now, they are mining 0.5 gm/tonne deposits. That's a hell of a lot of dirt to shift for very little return. I have never made any money on bitcoin, and I don't intend to try. I don't put money into things I don't understand. OTOH, I have never lost money buying and selling precious metals. So I'll stick to what I know. Russia is one of the world's biggest suppliers of platinum, which has only one month's forward supply. It's essential for many catalytic processes. I'm quite happy I bought some a few months ago, when the price was down.

Explain the difference for our benefit, please. I am interested in seeing how far semantics can be stretched.

Churchill: " A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth gets a chance to put its pants on." "Special military operation." I suppose the body bags coming back to Russia will be called noble sacrifices.

Why is it so important to consume alcohol with a meal at a restaurant? If I want a drink, I'll do it at home, where no-one will bother me with BS regulations.

Insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan turned IED's into an art form. They even attached dead dogs to the explosives, so that soldiers who were not killed in the detonation had long-lasting bacterial infections from their injuries. I don't think Ukrainians are slow learners, they will find ways to make life miserable for the Russians. Unless Putin can assert control over social media, he runs the risk of his own countrymen turning on him. Mussolini, Ceausescu, Gaddafi, Pahlavi, Hussein. That's the nightmare of all tyrants.