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Everything posted by Jenkins9039
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The new policies will ultimately lead to a reduction in $ velocity at the CB level, which will cap their ability to manipulate (control) the Baht-$ ratio. All trade practically occurs in $, all debt is practically in the EuroDollar market. Without the flow of $ the EuroDollar market demand will create a squeeze on the $ the CB has flowing through it. This will then lead to Thailand de-dollarising in certain industries regionally so as to preserve the $ that do flow through the CB for the EuroDollar debt. The average person believes the $ is the reserve currency, it's not, its the Eurodollar market which is some 300-400 trillion (no one really knows) - ledger based debt/liability system, the $ is just the 'benchmark' like the Gold pegged currencies previously utilised, now its pegged against the $ in paper ledgers and digitalised ledgers... But its serviced (paid in $). Have a look at the derivatives right at the bottom of this: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization-2022/ That includes the EuroDollar market.
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I didn't say that, they wouldn't go after Thai's they would go after the Chinese IP.
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Thailand recently got a new government more aligned to the US than China. A Chinese EV is 12-15,000$. A US EV / West EV is 40-120,000$. EV's will get more expensive in Thailand as China is using Thailand to build out the EV(s) and circumnavigate the Sanctions on Chips so as to sell into the ASEAN market. US won't allow.
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Stampede out of THB?
Jenkins9039 replied to khunjake's topic in Jobs, Economy, Banking, Business, Investments
Without $ flowing in in-mass for tourism and expats, Thailand is reliant on it's trade, and that needs to be in a surplus to imports. Therefore if $ are going out (not $ itself at the individual level, but the inter-change mechanism) than coming in, the country won't be able to control the THB - $ rate. As all debts are usually in EURODOLLAR, Corporate/Gov (ledger) they need physical $ capturing to pay down the debt or interest. So Thailand's approach to this new tax system will leave them longing for $ (you transferring in Euro's etc) to give the central bank the $ to service the Corporate demand & Gov demand. They will swiftly find themselves in a similar to most of the world, and armchair BRICS supporters will think Thailand trading with some countries in THB will be another win against the US Reserve Currency (its not) but in reality it will be because they don't get enough $ flow/velocity to service the EURODOLLAR commitments... FYI EURODOLLAR is the reserve currency, and that's just ledger based debts and liabilities, the $ is the mechanism for paying down the debts/interest. So som-nom-na -
No one is disputing that, what people are disputing is the fact savings are being taxed when brought in. I for example previously worked in a Tax Haven, there's no agreement with Thailand, now if i bring funds in i am looking at 35% plus VAT on expenditure, I probably spend on average 10-20x what the average expat spends (OAP drawing their pension, there's 10,000 people in similar shoes that bought into the Elite Visa because of the long-term stay and deferred fund remittance (tax free). That's a LOT of money that won't be coming to Thailand in future, i myself, the wife, were looking at local nations for the next dividends starting 2025 (Cambodia/Laos for 5 months annually for a few years) as we wanted to have a better flow with household staff (children) and ease of return, Now we are looking at Penang. I'd hazard a guess Thailand will loose just from our household 5m$ easily aggregate x years. The wife pays tax on her businesses income (personal) and even declares and pays tax on the allowance for the staffing (nannies, maids) etc - Now the Thai Gov won't get a penny, as she said, it's ok, I won't have to pay this tax now, so she's content. So som nom na.
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Experiencing the same, overseas company and dividends every 5-10 yrs. If they want to do this well, the Caymans is screaming hello, and that's a lot of money Thailand won't be getting, i was looking at doing the Cambodian / Thai / HK setup recently due to proximity and young kids when i take my next payment, but with this in mind, Thailand has entered the no beno zone.