Walker88

That doesn't make any sense. NOBODY is that clever. Just a silly conspiracy view...

Snowden is lucky, or rather he seems to be still somehow useful to putin. Otherwise he'd already be dead. A guy named Edward Lee Howard, a former CIA case officer, became a russian asset (the reasons are complicated). It is believed that it was intel from Howard that the most significant clandestine asset of modern times, Adolf Tolkachev, was uncovered and executed. Howard was given asylum in russia, but like so many people whose usefulness came to an end, he died falling down the stairs in his home. Often it's falling out of a window, but recently there have been many 'stair accidents' in russia. By the way, snowden was pretty low level, and some of what he 'revealed' is actually incorrect. He did take some coding that he did not develop, however, and shared that with russia.

The Household Debt number is astonishing. I didn't think it was so high. Rough waters ahead...and not only from typhoons. Using data from the Bank of Thailand and the US Federal Reserve, the per capita Household Debt in the US stands at about 69% of per capita US GDP, while in Thailand it is over 90% of Thai per capita GDP. (The numbers vary depending on the source and exchange rates used, but I used more current FedRes data). I am uncertain if the Thai Household Debt number includes "non-traditional" sources of debt, meaning loan sharks. If it does not, then debt certainly hampers any possible economic recovery in Thailand, especially when viewed in light of the $4.2 billion monthly trade deficit noted in the article, the fall in FX reserves, and the nascent recovery in the Tourism Sector (which was officially 18.8% of Thai GDP in 2019, pre-Covid). Toss in one more negative: the growing trend in factory migration by foreign firms to Vietnam as PPE (not Covid PPE, but property, plant and equipment) becomes aged and obsolete. As they say on late night infomercials in the US, "But wait ! There's more." During Covid, the BoT allowed banks to engage in a lot of creative accounting to go along with the debt moratorium that was in effect for much of 2021. Banks could book 'imputed interest', meaning they could pretend borrowers were servicing debt when, in fact, they were not. These accounting tricks were run through bank P&Ls and masked the true level of NPLs. Also in 2021 the laws were changed to allow banks to create subsidiary financial entities that could buy debt. One need not be a cynic to wonder how these entities are consolidated on the parent's BS, and if there is accounting gimmickry allowed. (I do know that during the peak of Japan's Post Bubble "Dai Boraku, or Big Crash", rules were changed so that subsidiaries representing less than 10% of the total corporations balance sheet did not have to be consolidated. I could write volumes on the fraud that was a result of this.) I'd say the financial authorities in the BoT and Thai govt are in the proverbial 'stuck between a rock and a hard place'. Raise rates to strengthen the baht and attack inflation, and pressure is put on indebted households and Thai corporations (who grew their debt far in excess of GDP growth in the supposed Boom Years after 2011). Maintain the current interest rates and while that could help trade and tourism, it likely exacerbates inflation. What is the solution? Frankly, there is no easy answer. Living high---whether households, corporations, or govt---comes with a cost. Thailand isn't unique in this way, but its numbers do not stack up well---much worse than many nations---and its economy is highly beholden to Tourism and Trade and cheap labor, vs domestic innovation and highly skilled labor. I suspect there's a long, slow slog in Thailand's future, though I hope I'm dead wrong.

Biden has been making gaffes since he was born. Nothing to do with age or mental health. He also knows the Wash, DC system better than anyone who has been POTUS in decades, which is why he has been able to accomplish so much in such a short time: -Nobody ever got a infrastructure Bill done since FDR; Biden got it passed. -He got prescription drug price reductions passed---in the face of so-called Big Pharma -He was the one who believed Ukraine could beat putin. He pushed for aid when everyone else was saying "a few days and putin takes Ukraine". Biden was right. -Biden rebuilt the NATO 45 was hellbent on destroying -Biden inherited UE of 6.8% from 45, and it's now 3.7% Oh, and in the two weeks since this post thread began, his approval rating jumped to levels higher than 45 ever saw. Now if people want to talk mental health, 45 is the one who is batshoot crazy. -45 can "think" and declassify? In what Universe? -The FBI searched MaL for HRC's emails? Even hannity was embarrassed by that. -The FBI "planted" the things 45 minutes later he said he declassified with his mind? -45 is now embracing the QAnon silliness that claims Tom Hanks, HRC and others are part of an international cabal, run out of the basement of a basement-less pizza shop in DC, that rapes, roasts and eats babies. And then there's the 'small matter' that 45 tried to overthrow US democracy and its 250 year system of government, all because he's a "whiny butt little [female dog]" and so painfully insecure he cannot accept being a LOSER

This ^ is a classic, textbook example of Dunning-Kreuger Effect

Spot is 1.0497 to the dollar Kind of ugly

Ah.....it's facetious. Didn't pick that up? You really think a Milan tailor makes bespoke condoms in a chalk stripe? Oh my ! Been availing yourself a bit too often of Thailand's relaxed cannabis laws, befitting your screen name?

"Where are some cheap pharmacies to buy these? " Can't help you. I go the bespoke route. I have a tailor in Milan who keeps a mold of my junk on file, and he fashions a few dozen boxes as the need arises and shoots them off to me by DHL. They fit like a Brioni. Unfortunately, quality comes with a price. They aren't cheap. Sometimes I have them monogrammed, as my partners like to keep them as a reminder of our assignation. My tailor also colorizes, and particularly popular among the women is the teal and even more so the padparadscha color, which mimics a lovely tropical sunset. In winter in colder climes, I opt for a chalk stripe or sometimes even a Glen Plaid. Very professional looking, and they're a hit at the office Christmas Party with whomever I pair off. Makes the tryst seem less scandalous. I tried paisley once, and they looked nice, but the images scared the women and made them think about pregnancy, as the paisley symbols do look a bit like spermatozoa. Lesson learned.

I guess I'm a sheeple because I still wear a mask in taxis, in stores, and on the BTS. I guess I can't think for myself, unlike all the fat, grossly tatted, maskless farangs who think they should be able to dictate to Thais how Thais should live. Real men, they, despite their meter plus girth ! I don't wear a mask in the gym, because the gym does not require it nor even request it, and about 90% of the Thais in the gym are maskless. Do I think masks do any good? Maybe a little. If surgeons give up masks, then I might change that view, but viruses are even sneakier than bacteria, and can enter a body even if it's not opened up by a surgeon's scalpel. Eyes, nose and mouth. Anyway, I don't really wear it to prevent getting or giving a disease. Though I live in Thailand, I know I am an outsider, and try not to give anyone any reason to distrust or dislike foreigners. Homogenous cultures tend toward xenophobia, so why exacerbate it? Thais in Bangkok almost universally wear masks, and they seem to prefer---via announcements in English on the BTS, signs in taxis, signs in Immigration in English---that foreigners wear masks, too. I don't like wearing it, but I feel it is polite to respect their requests. If that makes me a 'sheeple', so be it. Better that than look like the typical fat, tatted farang who is usually drunk and thinks he can impose his wishes on a country he is visiting. Rather than sheeple, I prefer greyhound....which most farangs are not. Hippos, yes. As I was walking down the street recently, one of these drunk farangs decided he didn't like a fellow farang wearing a mask, and said, "How are you going to drink with that <deleted> mask on?", to which I replied, "How are you going to s h ! t with those pants on?" Go maskless if you choose, but shut the eff up if someone else chooses to wear one.

I believe the last time cable threatened dollar parity, the bottom came when the 3 month Forward Rate hit dollar parity. Spot cable never breached 1:1.....and the bottom was in.

Tradition is a big word that encompasses things that can be good and can be bad. Also, ALL cultures are dynamic. Over time things change. Some people cannot accept any change at any pace, while others can objectively move on from practices and beliefs that have had their day. Sometimes 'tradition' is a fallback for insecure people who feel that what might give them unearned benefit might go away. An example of this is how many cultures dealt with females according to 'tradition'. "Barefoot and pregnant" was kind of a tradition in thought until the women's movement arose. While pendulums can swing too far---actually, they inevitably swing too far---there is something great about equality and something wildly efficient about unleashing the talents and skills of the other 50% of humanity. The same argument can be made about opening up 'traditional' society to all races. We all do better if the skills of talents of all have an opening to be used. While there are many harmful 'traditions', I'll just give one example, perhaps one of the more egregiously bad traditions: There is a belief system that says that while that belief's deity is omnipotent, it has quality control errors and needs males to remove the love button on females, because if they could feel sexual pleasure, they might engage in sex too much (i.e., cheat on me with a man with a bigger schlong). That is 'tradition' in some cultures. That same belief system says that an omnipotent being that created 200 billion galaxies, each with a hundred trillion stars, most of which have planets, some of which might have life, demands that on one planet orbiting one star in one galaxy women must dress like giant eggplants. That is 'tradition'. When tradition would make me curse that 'creator' for making me a women with a love button and telling me I cannot expose myself in any way lest males be driven into carnal obsession, that is a tradition my society would best do without. As lacesit noted, traditions that do no harm can be nice, but traditions that confer unequal benefits or propagate superstition or hamstring progress are best done away with. And to reiterate one earlier point, cultures have always been dynamic, so we must accept that even some harmless traditions will fall by the wayside over time. Finally, with all the pageantry on display the last two weeks,---coupled with the rout in the currency of the nation displaying that pageantry---I suspect we saw the final coda in a tradition with a thousand year history. The tears were perhaps less for someone's passing than for something passing into the dustbin of history, it's day done forever. (We all get our turn eventually.)

Depends on how one defines 'smart'. Currently trading 1.0917 That countermove in your graph was tiny, and has since gapped lower.

Freedom is under threat almost everywhere, as autocracy is almost becoming a fad. Myanmar had a chance to move away from 1500 years of monarchs and dictators (with very short attempts at building a democracy), but the Tatmadaw had the deck stacked. It's self-written Constitution allowed the military to retake power at any time for any reason. That is what the coup plotters used to justify their takeover. Critics are killed or imprisoned or have their bank accounts frozen. Spies are back in the tea shops, just like the days of SLORC/SPDC. Business is dying or dead. Hope is gone. It's a shame, but hardly surprising, that the current Thai govt cooperates with the junta. I wonder about the Interpol comment, as it seems unlikely they would honor the authority of a pariah govt. Perhaps once the woman gets to Vietnam, she can enter a Western embassy and claim asylum.

The US has the capability for a targeted attack, but only in failed states like Afghanistan, Somalia, the tribal regions of Pakistan, or perhaps in areas quite close to borders of friendly nations. There is zero chance the US could target putin while he is in russia. The russian people are going to have to do the wet work to take him out, and even that is difficult, because putin is paranoid and a coward, so few---other than his most trusted advisers---can get near him. It would take a highly coordinated effort by numerous folks who probably don't even trust each other. It's possible someone close to him could turn, especially if that person tends to gain either substantial power or wealth. Frankly, that's all the world can hope for right now. Ideally it is someone like Naryshkin, who might have enough allies to pull it off. Absent toppling putin, I suspect we're in for a nuclear winter, at least in Ukraine. Folks in all major military nations are going to be on edge, which increases the possibility of a mistake that escalates into Armageddon. If I was to make a guess, I would say putin is going to nuke Kyiv with a low yield nuke, which would eliminate the Zelenskyy govt and make Ukraine headless. The West will consider some sort of military retaliation, but will rationalize inaction by saying 'it's not worth ending life as we know just over Ukraine. We feel bad, but there's another 8 billion humans to consider. Instead, much harsher sanctions will be put into effect, and Europe is going to have a severe gas problem this winter. russian people around the world will be attacked and slaughtered, even if they are anti-putin. putin is crazy, but probably still rational enough to understand what the world's response would be, which is non-military. Evil tends to win, especially if the evil have nukes.

"A growing number of Millennials and Gen Z"....whatever that means. There are 330,000,000 million Americans and hundreds of millions of Europeans, Canadians, Aussies, etc., combined. I suspect this is a very small issue for people who don't matter a lick. No need to get all riled up over it. On the other hand, when some 30% of Cult 45ers believe Tom Hanks and HRC run an international cabal that rapes, roasts and eats babies (QAnon), a likely equal number think the 2020 election was 'stolen', and a similar percent prefer autocracy to democracy, then just maybe these are much more significant issues than a couple of whining Gen Zers who live on TikTok. Perspective.

Putin is just showing off in front of his own people, trying to pretend he's tough when it is becoming increasingly clear he's a loser, and likely unstable.. While many russians are likely behind the aggression, since they don't have access to factual information, the word has likely gotten out that russia is losing. At least 100,000 russian mothers have learned their sons are never coming home. Getting their butts kicked by tiny Ukraine shatters russias delusions about being a superpower, and since this is putin's war, the fingers will be pointed at him. russians always convinced themselves they were tough by remembering and embracing Stalingrad. This is an entirely different sort of thing. It isn't defense, it's aggression, and it is being carried out by guys who joined the russian military to get 3 square meals a day, not because they wanted to fight for mother russia. putin used to waltz into international meetings late, pretending he is so important he just couldn't get to the venue on time. In his last few meetins, xi and modi kind of gave him a dressing down. He is a small man, likely insecure, and getting dissed by people he believes should feel inferior to him would not sit well. So he comes out all bluster and smoke, both for international leaders as well as his own people. It's a bad way to try to show strength, because it reeks of desperation. He is wounded. That might make him dangerous, but it also makes him vulnerable. Oligarchs are losing everything from yachts to bank accounts to entry into places infinitely more entertaining than russia. They know it's putin's fault. A guy like Naryshkin, head of the SVR, who was dressed down by putin, is a clever guy who may have been making inroads with disaffected oligarchs and other leaders. I suspect that if it looks as if putin really does intend to use tactical nukes against Ukraine, he will be toppled. Hopefully it happens before he unleashes the first one.

The govt is not lying. Do you know how inflation is measured? A basket of goods is put together. The folks who assemble the basket try to determine what the average citizen spends on everything from rent/mortgage to gas to home electricity to clothing to medical care to the Standard American Diet (SAD, a perfect abbreviation) The basket should reflect the average consumer. Obviously some people consume way outside of the average, so they feel inflation more, or less, than this average. Lots of investment banks have analysts who also construct baskets of goods and services, and their numbers tend to closely reflect what the Commerce Dept puts out. Somebody sees milk prices rose, say, 20% and they extrapolate that increase over every single cost they have, deciding that inflation is 20% and the govt is lying. Maybe their rent, a much more impactful monthly cost, is only up 3% year-on-year. Maybe they spend $300 per year on milk, but $12000 for rent, yet they extrapolate the milk price rise, not the much less but more impactful rent increase. Human nature.

You play the market that way if you wish. Just don't put more in than you can afford to lose. The market is bearish not because of dems, but because of inflation,. If you think inflation is Biden's fault, you need to go back to school. Inflation doesn't arise instantly. The combo of money printing to save the system from 2008, plus the spendthrift ways of 45, and to some extent the putin invasion of Ukraine, all created the perfect storm that is WORLDWIDE inflation (as other economies also printed wildly post 2008). Look at how repubs overspend: tax cuts for the Donor Class. Look at how Dems overspend: infrastructure that benefits everyone. The data is accessible. Dems have historically been better both for reining in spending and a better performing equity market. As I remember Paul Tudor Jones saying back in the mid 80s, the Reagan economy was purely debt fueled and began a disaster in terms of the National Debt, Remember the total debt in 1980 was $1 trillion. (Paul happens to be a Dem and is worth $7 billion)

Point out anything that is untrue. I turned down both Wharton and Harvard Business School, and instead attended Stanford. Had several Nobel Prize winners for profs, along with a future Fed Chairman. Yes, got into all three. I have gathered all the data going back to 1860. I also know how to adjust for accounting gimmickry, which admittedly was brought to an art form by Robert Rubin under Clinton. Reagan got it started (accounting gimmickry to hide exploding deficits) When Obama left office the Nat Debt was about $19.5 trillion all-in (no accounting nonsense). When 45 lost and left, it was nearly $27 trillion. Too often the lie is repeated about 'best economy ever' under 45. That is quite far from reality, even before Covid. 45's average GDP growth was beaten by 71% of all Quarters since the end of WWII. After Covid he fell into the bottom quartile. He inherited 4.8% UE from Obama (who had inherited the Financial Crisis and a system days away from total collapse). 45 left Biden 6.8% UE and a Recession.

Editing got messed up and time ran out Should be: If repubs win the midterms, I suspect the dollar collapses. Other than magats, few people in the world---the kind who might park wealth in the US---think the current repubs are anything more than a cult of personality, absent any platform whatsoever except unquestioning fealty to their messiah. repubs have slogans, but no policies, Historically, repubs are worse for the economy than dems. Not a single repub POTUS since Lincoln has NOT presided over the start of a Recession. Not one. Also, the equity market performs better under dems than repubs. repubs are also the spendthrifts, despite their claims of fiscal conservatism what The Village People are to cops and cowboys. That has always been a joke. repubs are to fiscal conservatism what The Village People are to cops and cowboys. repubs give tax cuts that wreck the deficit and benefit the Donor Class. Dems spend money on infrastructure that benefits everybody. No greater contrast can be seen than comparing 45's profligacy (an additional $7,000,000,000,000 to the National Debt, a 37% increase, in a mere 4 years) vs Biden already cutting the yearly deficit by $350 billion in FY2021 and $1.7 trillion in FY2022. A repub victory in the midterms would be a disaster for the dollar and the US.

I think the average IQ is dropping. So much knowledge is unnecessary, so people do not use their brains, and the brain goes fallow. It may no longer be necessary for a student to 'learn your tables', but that memorization aided the brain in areas other than simple memory or calculations, because people developed their own unique ways of doing arithmetic in their head. I suspect writing, rather than typing, also aided the brain, as writing involves thinking, coordination and spacial orientation (where to put loops, dot i s and cross t s). These things aid neuroplasticity.....neuron connections...which is the nature of intelligence. I don't know if it matters than IQs are dropping, as in terms of discovery and invention, the Pareto Principle has always been at play, albeit with % much less than 20-80. The best and brightest will continue to shine, while the masses will devolve into troglodytes, largely redundant and unnecessary. Also, since intelligence may be as much as 80% hereditary, and the brightest are having fewer children, the gene pool for intelligence is being diluted. Perhaps most of the heavy lifting has already been done, and what's left to discover is knowledge that merely fills in minor gaps. Newton, Faraday, Maxwell, Einstein, Divac, Feynman and other noted scientists gave the planet the foundation for building just about everything we use today, as well as help us understand the nature of existence. What's left? Better batteries? Nuke fusion? Linking gravity to the other forces? Finding the last few subatomic particles? All of those are incremental steps vs the quantum leaps made by the truly great thinkers. Maybe we can afford to be dumber.

If repubs win the midterms, I suspect the dollar collapses. Other than magats, few people in the world---the kind who might park wealth in the US---think the current repubs are anything more than a cult of personality, absent any platform whatsoever except unquestioning fealty to their messiah. repubs have slogans, but no policies, Historically, repubs are worse for the economy than dems. Not a single repub POTUS since Lincoln has NOT presided over the start of a Recession. Not one. Also, the equity market performs better under dems than repubs. repubs are also the spendthrifts, despite their claims of fiscal conservatism what The Village People are to cops and cowboys. That has always been a joke. repubs are to fiscal conservatismrepubs give tax cuts that wreck the deficit and benefit the Donor Class. Dems spend money on infrastructure that benefits everybody. No greater contrast can be seen than comparing 45's profligacy (an additional $7,000,000,000,000 to the National Debt, a 37% increase, in a mere 4 years) vs Biden already cutting the yearly deficit by $350 billion in FY2021 and $1.7 trillion in FY2022. A repub victory in the midterms would be a disaster for the dollar and the US.

You are probably not an economist or trader, as you do not understand what makes a currency strong or not strong. First, most everyone has oodles of debt. The entire world is awash in debt, now approaching $300,000,000,000,000. Some countries hide it better, account for it differently, etc. Ten years ago one could have looked at the finances of Japan, their debt service ratio, etc., and thought the yen should be a bazillion yen to the dollar and euro. Many factors, however, are at play. The draw for the US, especially now that sanity has at least returned to the White House, is that the US has both rule of law and massive liquid markets. Almost any amount of wealth can enter and exit US equity, fixed income, property, etc. markets, be safe while there, and exit just as easily without restriction or interference. That makes the dollar an attractive entity in which to hold wealth. The US also is a global manufacturing and military power. Toss in the fact that oil and many commodities are still quoted in and paid for in dollars is another part of its strength. One more key point: the US banking system, despite the OBS derivative portfolios, is quite strong and stable, particularly because of what Obama forced on it back in 2009. He made banks recapitalize, sell bad assets, and markedly lower their leverage rations. The entire US banking system represents about 80% of US GDP, while in a country like Switzerland, with two major banks, the banking system is about 350% of Swiss GDP. That makes the entire Swiss economy vulnerable to the credit quality of the portfolios of the major banks. The entire EU banking system is about 200% of EU GDP, and the EU solution to 2008 was to have both sovereign debt and banks lean against each other to remain standing (Dragi printed money, gave it to banks with high leverage, told them to buy EU sovereign debt, thus both lowering EU nation borrowing costs and adding "profits" to EU banks.) As for all that debt...$7 trillion of it, or upwards of 35%, came just in the 4 years of 45. That is a rate of profligacy never seen before under any POTUS. Fortunately Biden cut FY2021 deficit by $350 billion over 45's last year, and another $1.7 trillion in FY2022. The money printing the Fed did to stave off financial armageddon after 2008, combined with the wild spending and deficit spree of 45, is what finally let the inflation genie out of the bottle. Obama had to clean up the repub-created mess under Bush II, and Biden has to clear up the mess created by 45.

The economy was great? Even before Covid, the economy under 45 was in the bottom 30% (in terms of GDP) since the end of WWII. After Covid hit, it fell into the bottom quartile. It was also worse than under Obama, the POTUS who inherited a financial system days away from collapse (because of the 2008 Financial Crisis. 45 inherited low UE (4.8%) and a growing economy. He left Biden rising UE (6.8%) and a Recession. Spending was in check? Oh my! The National Debt was $19.6 trillion when 45 took over, a debt built up over two and a half centuries. When 45 lost and left, Nat Debt was $26.8 trillion, a 37% increase in just 4 years. 45, along with the repubs, was doing to the US what 45 did to his companies. Under Biden, the yearly deficit fell by $350 billion in FY2021 and will fall by $1.7 trillion in FY2022. Plus, Biden's spending bill will actually do something useful: rebuild infrastructure, rather than just put tax cut money into the hands of the Donor Class. I guess---in bringing this back to the OP---if I had a concern it is that too many of the delusionists who think 45 was anything more than a self-serving, willfully ignorant, woefully insecure Narcissistic bozo whose greatest desire was to make the US an autocracy with him installed as dictator for life, come to Thailand.

Either he doesn't know the exchange rate, or the 1 baht figure is wrong. Just to get some som tam from a street vendor he'd have to sell about everything sitting in front of him. Forget about getting a room for the night, even in a flop house. What he is trying to do was a common method of travel in Medieval times and how a lot of small scale trading was done. A bit more difficult in the days of Lazada, Shoppee, Amazon, etc. Perhaps he should try his luck as crew on a tramp steamer.