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ericbj

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Everything posted by ericbj

  1. Find out what inducements tourists prefer in Vietnam compared to Thailand. To get valid answers you need to query a broad spectrum of either: 1. Those currently visiting Vietnam who have recently been in Thailand; or 2. Those who have been to Vietnam and have now spent some days in Thailand. This could be most easily done by market research assistants questioning departing visitors at airports and recording answers of those who had earlier visited Vietnam. Mere brain-storming methods are likely to involve wishful thinking based upon the prejudices of hoteliers, restaurateurs, tour-guides, civil servants, etc.
  2. "Charges do not carry the death penalty":
  3. Enriching the plutarchs, impoverishing the rest.
  4. If you don't like it stop exhibiting your wealth, or pretending you have what you haven't. :-)
  5. Not sure how things may have evolved since, but more than two decades ago I taught English for some months to the final class at a large secondary school in the north-west, located just next to where I had a class of adults from Burma. Unpaid, informal volunteer in both instances. Initially total apathy. I moved the class from the big modern school-building to the nearby teak house with its sizeable veranda. More relaxed atmosphere. Then ensued chaos. My Burmese students intervened to restore order. I asked them to desist. Slowly things settled down of their own accord. The six girls sat on the floor, the six boys on chairs behind them. Occasionally the boys might start chatting amongst themselves. The girls would turn round and tell them to shut up. Which they promptly did. More than once, as the pupils were departing, in high spirits, laughing and joking, my Burmese friends remarked, with a tone of astonishment, how much these 15-to-16-year-olds were enjoying the classes. We made great progress and the class became one of my most fulfilling ever. The headmaster requested I take two more classes, which I declined; but then accepted to take an improver class for the three Thai teachers of English. The only one I ever met spoke an "English" of which I understood not a word. Embarassing for us both. But the teachers never turned up. Too much loss of face, I guess. A pity, because their pupils might have benefitted. No guessing the cause of the initial apathy in my class. "If troops mutiny, first seek failure in their officers."
  6. This answers my question : Thailand's gold EXPORTS are rising in value, thereby strengthening the baht: nationthailandThailand’s Jan–Nov gold exports top 391bn baht, Commerce...Commerce Ministry: Jan–Nov 2025 unwrought gold exports rose 13.2% to US$11.9bn (about 391.68bn baht), lifting gold’s share of total exports to 3.8%.Domestic purchases of gold not destined for export will have a contrary tendency, by reducing exports. But, as a store-of-value, domestic holdings, whether private or public, will increase economic resilience in turbulent times ahead, when paper and binary blips lose value.
  7. Further to my earlier response: https://www.tastyfx.com/news/gold-in-the-forex-space-all-time-highs-and-correlations/ A bit out of date as regards the rapidly evolving gold price, but this site points out that a rising gold price (in common with other commodity prices) can have a positive effect on the Fx value of gold-exporting nations and a negative effect on gold-importing nations. For example: "AUD/USD and NZD/USD exhibit positive correlations with gold: 0.41 and 0.42 "USD/CHF and USD/JPY show inverse correlations with gold: -0.38 and -0.40" This raises the question: Is Thailand a net exporter of gold or a net importer?
  8. If the gold price DIRECTLY influences the foreign exchange value of a currency, why have the FX values of the currencies with the largest gold reserves not gone through the roof? Note that the United States with ALLEGEDLY the largest gold reserves of 8,000+ tons (perhaps largely hypothecated and loaned out?) has a falling currency. China - their real gold reserves are doubtlessly far in excess of what is declared - should have a hugely appreciating yuan. Instead they are selling off their once largest-of-all dollar reserves, at least partially to support their currency (geopolitical reasons probable also). Both Germany and France have very large gold reserves but their economies are crashing. (of course the euro is a crazy, doomed currency). If merely holding dollars rather than selling them strengthens a currency, why is the BoJ, until recently the largest holder of dollars, now selling them off as fast as it can? Answer: to support the yen. [AI, as it exists at the present time, lacks genuine intelligence. It cannot reason. What it does is SUMMARISE what it finds in sources it is programmed to use. Very useful, but not infallible. Must be employed with circumspection]
  9. If you are in Thailand and your currency is in baht and you order goods from, say, amazon.com, amazon will be paid in dollars. Your bank, or their bank, will convert your thai baht into USD. If the USD has fallen relative to the baht, you will pay fewer baht than you would have if the exchange rate had not altered. Should be no need to explain further. The value of gold, or for that matter US Treasuries, held in central bank reserves has no direct impact upon the value of a currency. Reserves can however be sold to support a currency when it is failing or it is desired to strengthen it. Another factor which could be strengthening the baht during the tourist season is the many people buying baht with their national currency. Decreasing the quantity of baht in circulation.
  10. Lowering interest rates is the same as "printing more money". The expression does not literally involve printing bank-notes, a tiny fraction of the currency in circulation. It covers increasing credit which is what you do on lowering interest rates. Inflation is a term which in essence does not mean that goods and services are becoming intrinsically more valuable. It means the currency is worth less.
  11. A stronger baht makes exporting more difficult, importing easier. The foreign buyer has to purchase more USD to pay the baht price. The foreign seller gets paid more USD or whatever currency. If you are rich in raw materials (don't need to import much) and strong in manufactured goods, you will benefit from a strong currency. Trump says he wishes to weaken the dollar to support U.S. exports and discourage imports. My guess is that the rising price of gold, which is encouraging Thais to buy more gold than usual, is reducing availability of baht. Fewer baht means they appreciate in value. Less is invested in business. To fight it, print more baht ?
  12. The Trump administration, a wolf that has thrown off its sheep's clothing, has resurrected an aggressive Monroe Doctrine, for which has been coined the term the Donroe Doctrine. Its purpose is to preserve the Americas – North, South, and Central – as the exclusive preserve of the United States. Canada, Greenland, and – let it be noted - Antarctica are all included in this hemisphere. The countries in this zone may be required to export exclusively to the United States, and their inward foreign investments are to come solely from the U.S. The U.S. administration has also declared its intention to dominate outer space, which it seems to think is rich in valuable minerals. China, Russia and Iran are named as hostile to the U.S. and therefore to be excluded from the American hemisphere. But this is just the beginning. The rest of the world – particularly European countries with deluded leaders living in the past - needs to wake up. What the Trump Government is attempting can succeed. If it does it will likely lead to a divided U.S.-dominated world of severely restricted freedoms; despite vote-catching calls to the contrary. Increasing human fulfilment needs more freedom, not less. The threat from Trump & Co. can be countered by the countries of the Eurasian and African continents finding common ground [i.e. mutually beneficial] and following the U.S. example. Exclude the U.S. from their resources and markets. This could cause Trump to hesitate in what he is doing. But if he does not, what he gains in one hand he loses from the other. There are currently violent divisions within the Eurasian and African continents. Many of these have been engineered by the global hegemon and its satellites, for whose oligarchs war means enrichment, in part by sucking up tax-money collected from the working population. The hegemon is now telling its poodles to go fend for themselves. Nonetheless it will doubtlessly try to keep them on a leash. Many seemingly insoluble conflicts can assuredly be resolved by excluding all threat of force, seeking to understand the various conflicts of interest and the oft-manufactured fears; then reaching mutually beneficial agreements ("win-win"). We need to build a better world. Very different from the neofeudal one envisaged by the W.E.F.
  13. For a treaty to be signed, if ever, it is likely to include a clause excluding NATO boots on the ground in the Ukraine. If Russia finds French and British troops are violating the treaty, it is possible that as a disincentive they drop some fireworks on them. The politicians will not worry, they hide cannon-fodder casualties. Starmer has declared one lance-corporal killed. A gross understatement.
  14. This - https://youtu.be/GiuetZ6vQwQ - is AI-generated, as freely admitted by the Channel. It therefore does not represent the actual utterances of Francis Fukuyama. However, the suggestion is not altogether implausible. A similar possibility was mooted by Simplicius, a Russian source: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/trumps-golden-hour-historically-flawless Essentially the question is this: Did the U.S., Russia, and China reach a secret, publicly-deniable agreement on spheres of influence concerning the Americas, Eastern Europe, and East Asia ?
  15. According to well informed sources, 'The Magnificent Seven', which includes Google, are likely to drop significantly this year. Maybe more than average - recession said to lie ahead. Forewarned is fore-armed.
  16. Used both gmail.com and yahoo.fr for about two decades. Until in 2020 first one and then the other, without warning, became incompatible with my e-mail client Pegasus Mail, which I have been using since the 1990s. Still possible to access them using a web-browser. But this is unsatisfactory for consulting, organising, and storing heavy e-mail traffic. Pegasus Mail was, and remains, a brilliant piece of feature-rich software, is free, available in several language versions, and is security-oriented. No way I was going to give it up. My principal e-mail account for the past 5+ years has been with posteo.de which offers both web-mail and true e-mail protocols, and choice of English, German, or French. Cost 1 euro per month payable in advance, so I send about a year's worth. Reliable. End-to-end encryption available.
  17. To what are you comparing the THB's value? Cost of living? According to official figures its value has been rising much of this year. Cannot be said for all countries. Against real money (gold)? Been depreciating a lot. But not as much as many other fiat currencies.
  18. Maharaj Hospital. Public hospital linked to Chiang Mai University Medical School, so expert eye surgeon, fees for farangs relatively modest. Thronged by Thais, few foreigners, but more staff speak English than a decade ago. Arrive to register before 8.30 a.m., then wait for many hours, so take a book. Several preliminary visits required before operation
  19. Central Bank Reserves of which only U.S. Treasury Bills and Gold are recognised (as tier-1 assets by the B.I.S.) are held to support a currency in time of crisis. They must be sold to support the currency. If they are not sold the currency is not supported. The USD is falling in value - both in real terms and against other "paper money" - and will fall further. Forthcoming massive sales of U.S. Treasuries by the Bank of Japan, necessary to prop up the yen, sets the seal on this fall in value of the dollar. Central Banks are increasingly preferring gold for reserves rather than USD, for reasons that should be self-evident. If anyone thinks the bankers are right in this, they are free to follow them. Gold has skyrocketted but will go much higher. It is being outperformed by silver, which trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The fall in the relative value of the rupee of nearly 5% against the USD (or 10% against a basket of currencies) renders imports more expensive but facilitates exports. It can obviously have an impact on certain things such as wealthy families sending their children abroad to be educated. However certain important factors such as energy costs (imported oil) and food prices (much is home-grown) have not been seriously affected. Incidentally, personal holdings of gold in India are massive. According to a Morgan Stanley report, Indian households hold about 34,600 tonnes of gold, valued at roughly $3.8 trillion in 2025. A 5% rise in gold prices, driven by rupee depreciation, raises this by around $190 billion.
  20. Orban has produced the proof. To the Commission. To judge by the stir he has caused within the E.U. Commision his proof cannot be lightly dismissed. Otherwise they would simply brush it aside as something of no consequence. It looks to me as if they have no easy defence. So they are planning a major offensive in response. Obfuscate the real issues when they cannot be convincingly answered.
  21. https://english.elpais.com/international/2025-11-04/a-hungarian-spy-scandal-in-brussels-implicates-viktor-orbans-eu-commissioner.html "Brussels to question Orbán’s government over EU spying allegations, anti-fraud commissioner says" "The Hungarian government has denied all the accusations, calling them part of a “smear campaign.” But the fact remains that an internal European Commission security team is investigating the case, which EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has taken very seriously." If the accusations are true von der Leyen has reason to take them VERY seriously. There must be an immediate and effective cover-up to prevent the E.U. public from knowing into which secret holes its money is pouring.
  22. If you keep your savings in gold, you will see the baht is steadily losing value. You will be getting more baht to spend, offsetting price inflation. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUTHB/
  23. End of the Road for War-Mongering EU Commission? "The silence in Brussels has finally been broken. Viktor Orbán has just dropped a political bombshell that could dismantle the European Commission. It’s no longer just about deleted text messages; it’s about a €135 Billion secret deal that was hidden from the public eye."
  24. An interesting discussion, and revealing. The U.K. Government defines 'far right' as (inter alia) ethnic culturalism :- The U.K. Government is rotten to the core. And publicly admits it.
  25. Reform is not far right by any normal definition of the term. 'Far right' implies extremism of the fascist or of the "national socialist" kinds, both of which comprised authoritarian one-party rule with integration of state and corporate interests and the suppression of human rights. Of course extremists, as well as psychopaths and sociopaths, hide out in all areas of the political spectrum. In recent years there has been a deceitful and quite successful campaign, by those who contribute to shaping public opinion, to destroy national identity. Techniques employed include using media-hype to link a sense of national identity, once seen positively as patriotism, with being 'far right'. Cultural identity - national, local, religious, and occupational - is now decried as 'racism'. Racism is something quite different: it is hatred of 'The Other'. The existence of national and cultural identities can be consistent with the acceptance and welcome of 'The Other'. On condition there is felt to be present no threat. This insidious propaganda is backed by powerful financial interests known to permeate the corridors of power, where they contribute to shaping government, the media, academia, and numerous NGOs and think-tanks that thrive in today's society. Some of their ideas may come from the writings of Count Kalergi. Unsurprisingly the E.U. issues a Kalergi Prize; German Chancellor Angela Merkel was awarded one. While Nigel Farage is a brilliant public speaker, I have some doubts about his ability to "deliver the goods" (based upon more than Enoch Powell's refusal to endorse Farage because he sensed him to be "an opportunist"). I admit to being impressed with Ben Habib whom I have listened to at some length. See for example:

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