You'd be wrong.
You're clearly extremely biased.
Simply objectively he is highly likely to win just for being the incumbent!
Yes Trump lost but really only because of covid and his shambolic response to it.
https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/06/11/154745966/why-its-good-to-be-the-incumbent
Why It's Good To Be The Incumbent
Two political tried-and-truisms: Sitting presidents are hard to unseat, and history repeats itself.
To the first point: In the past 10 presidential elections with incumbent candidates, the incumbents have won seven times. The only incumbent losers were Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992.
Finish the Job