talahtnut

15 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I think those expert economists made their forecasts with that knowledge already in mind, it was not exactly a well hidden secret by any stretch of the imagination.

Government experts and economists don't make forecasts..they know exactly whats going to happen.  Its been going on since the 70s.

You've hit the nail on the head.

16 hours ago, baansgr said:

At last, an honest article in the Guardian 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/07/brexit-why-buyers-remorse-hasnt-hit-the-uk-economy

In this article, the sentence ' Those deep structural problems – the over-reliance on debt to support consumption,'  Is the key problem in UK.

I wonder where the government finds all these experts and economists from.

16 hours ago, David Walden said:

"Dave's Stock Exchange", 

Is Beer up or down today?

I've got 50ฺ฿ to invest on beer going down.

16 hours ago, aright said:

You were paddling with the girls from Sharon's Brothel and Bar were you?

Yeah, known locally as the 'Potato Sacks'.. I got lumbered with Doris Bottle..the one with boils.

16 hours ago, aright said:

Fish and Chips and pints of Cripplecock cider in Hull........the perfect holiday.

It certainly could be..good for UK economy..small carbon footprint.. cheaper than Thailand..and you can understand what people are saying about you.

16 hours ago, nauseus said:

UK and US cosumption rates are not comparable. Sorry.

Of course I agree, completely different places, but both have mountains of dept, the US military budget would be enough to feed the world..let alone bomb it. Crazy or what?

16 hours ago, soalbundy said:

The pound yes but the Dollar is a reserve currency, only if the amount of oil sold fell drastically (it has to be paid in Dollars) would the Dollar decline meaningfully but even so the industrial might of the USA is considerable,they have a lot of foreign and home grown scientists and engineers and are very innovative,when push comes to shove the USA rises above itself so while the Dollar may fall over the next two years I don't see its demise as a reserve currency. Even the battered Pound will find a floor from where it can drag itself but I don't have much hope that they will get above their knees. 

Oil is a finite resource, when it runs out, food will be the next problem.

The UK is unable to feed 70m now without importing.

The UK and US economies are unsustainable at present consumption rates.

15 hours ago, soalbundy said:

good one, even with a trashed pound they have a falling GDP and Brexit is still some way off.

The value of both the GBp and the $ has only only way to go..down.

Brexit or stay...  the economy of UK is mismanaged..That is the problem.

16 hours ago, David Walden said:

I'm not sure that into to days financial world there is much choice investments are a gamble.  Usually I don't gamble and I've only ever been to one horse races in my (long) life.  I had 2 bets a pure stab in the dark.  My 1st winner was "Jackman" came home at 7 to 2, got my money back plus 3 pound 10 shilling (that's how long ago).  The second horse was called "Down and Out"  about 500 yards from the winning post there was a bad fall in the race "down and out"  who was coming last jumped over the favorite and went around the mess to come home 2 length ahead of the second favorite and one the race at 14 to 1.

I've never put a bet on any horse since, for the outlay of 3 pounds 10 shillings I got 40 something pounds back.  $80 for $7 outlay in to-days money.  Not having put a dollar on any horse since I just might be one of the most successful punters ever.  Anyhow that's my story and I'm sticking to it.  Wish I could do the same with money exchanges today.  I always be a horse race winner.

You lucky sod..why not be your own stock exchange?  Buy something you really really like, that's not made anymore..like land or that old dream ferrari..Fiat currency is made every day by the lorry load.

15 hours ago, David Walden said:

You may be right, you maybe wrong. Guess what, it seems everybody hates Trump at the moment but the the price of shares in the US is going gangbusters at present.  Yes the price is going up and the dividends are going down.

 

The US share market requires about 40 years of dividends to recover an investment.  If you had Coca Cola shares only a few years ago it took 62 years to get your investment back,  all base on sentiment.  There are many other shares with high values and not paying dividends (that's why you invest, dividends)  The  Dow share market value exceeds the price of shares listed in 2008 collapse by lots.  It is now 3.5 times the value of 2008 after the meltdown,  i.e. It got down to 7000 then, it is now around 25,000, lots of fairy floss there.  The dividends are very low.  By comparison the Australian share market still has not reach the value ASX 200 that it was before the financial meltdown in 2008 it was 6700 approx then, It is about 6200 today.  My modest personal across the board investments have had a dividend for the last 4 years of around 7/8% plus 3/4% capital gains making the value increase by about 11% P/A (OK).    A similar portfolio in the US would likely return about 3/4% P/A. The value of my modest investments is nearing the 2008 value before the meltdown.  (6700).  Lost nearly half in that fiasco.  There are plenty of traps for young and old share market players today. 

 

It is my belief the Dow index the US share market is over valued by 2.2 of its real value with dividends paid.  Many retirement funds in the US are paying out pensions to its members by cashing in over valued shares not dividends...not good.  Selling fairy floss again.

 

I believe the real value of the US Dow share market is about 12,000 it is over valued when compared to other countries (Aus and others).  We are not there yet and some time may be available for a slow correction.  I believe the Dow US share market is over valued by 13,000 point.  If it keeps going this way the dollar and share market is on track for a big nose dive , when will they ever learn (1929 again).  I hope I'm wrong?  Don't think so.  It will also bring the Aussie market down also, not looking forward to that either. ( shit not again).

 

The value of the US dollar is in the hands of many who have no idea what to do.

 

PS...you heard the one ...  The army captain said to the cook  "another 20 men coming for lunch.  Put another bucket of water in the stew"  I think the same thing is happening in the US and Aus share market and the US dollar.  Sooner or later you'll stave to death eating (army stew).

Ever thought of nipping into a casino and sticking the lot on red?

Only the big boys win on the stocks.

I cant see its a good idea to let someone else handle your money.

IMHO the ฿ is the way to go..western economists are insane.

If the world was to come to its senses, passports would be consigned to history.  Surely we are citizens of the world.

15 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Churchill's technique? What would that be? Where is taught? Why isn't anyone using it?

And what's 'Politicians understand ethics, but would you trust one with a 20฿ note?" got to do with Macchiavelli? 

You ask too many questions...and my son has just nicked all my peanuts...Please don't ask me why he did that!  Happy new year?

15 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

You think politicians don't appreciate the power of words? Really? Maybe if Churchill's genius with them were transferable you might have a point there.

As for your point about Machiavelli, I don't understand. Losing ethics as an obstacle or as an enabler? What don't you think politicians don't understand about ethics?

Churchill's technique can be learnt,   [ transfered?]

Politicians understand ethics,  but would you trust one, with your 20฿ note?

15 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Machiavelli was himself a failure in his government career and Churchill was terrible as a peacetime politician and leader. What exactly do you think a current politician could learn from Churchill? Find another Hitler?  Blair tried to cast Saddam as just that and look where that got him.

From Churchill....the power of words.

From Machiovelli....the loss of ethics.

Hitler was a superlative speech maker..certainly worth a study.

Hitler studied Islams powerful influence.

17 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

I'll bet that's why he signed us up in the first place don't you think, just so she could make a few bob, I mean, he's only worth £60 million, crafty eh. 

Machiovelli and Churchill, essential study for politicians and leaders.

20 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

And I don't care for the man either. But the fact he is a three-term Prime Minister means he must have got many things right.

A brilliant orator,  but gave three terms of false promises and lies and a war.

He tried to emulate his idol Churchill, the great war leader..but ended as Macbeth.

20 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

This is what I call funny mate: https://youtu.be/esOiB_fanzI

15 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Arf arf....it's a spoof, a funny, you're not meant to take it seriously, a little light entertainment for the holidays! 

Lack of empathy is not amusing.

15 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Arf arf....it's a spoof, a funny, you're not meant to take it seriously, a little light entertainment for the holidays! 

Lack of empathy is not amusing.

15 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

I agree with you 100% Sandy but TBH unless something is done in the near future, (Brexit, hard, soft or none) thesituation in the UK can only get worse. I live in Thailand so ithe only way that I will be affected is if the UK cannot pay my pensions.

 

My son (I think) bought his house at Liss Forrest on the back of his grandmothers death as her bungalow etc was inherited by my ex wife and our son. Now I have a grandson of 6 and a granddaughter of 3 and I suspect that the only way they will own a house will be when my ex-wife dies and they sell her place.

 

What jobs they will get when they enter the job market I have no idea as I cannot see that far into the future. Perhaps my granddaughter will follow her Mum in the child minding business and my grandson will follow my son into the motor industry.

The result of a greedy, self interested, capitalist, piss pot mean government.

Things will only get worse. I can only hope for my UK kids future same as you.

Looking to the future of the UK, and considering the increasing Muslim influence.

We should join them and replace the government with the Islamic system.

Peace be upon you...[some hope!]

21 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Growth can mean a lot things in an economic context. Technically speaking, the UK is now enjoying growth - low growth but it's growth. But if you dig deeper it's even lower than it looks. Remember that this growth figure is for the UK as a whole. But the population of the UK is increasing at a rate of 0.8 percent per year. So on a per capita basis the growth is almost at zero. In addition, next to the USA, among all fully developed nations, the UK has the greatest disparity in income levels among its population. So it may well be that while there has been a tiny amount of growth for the UK as a whole, for its individual citizens, there may actually have been a decline in income. And clearly these numbers don't tell it all.  There is the decline in purchasing power of the pound to consider. In fact, if you look at fuller economic data,  it turns out that disposable income per capita has actually declined in the UK over the past year and a half.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/14721/concepts/economic-growth-per-capita/

Nice one...Adding to that, government figures are at best 0.03% deceptive.