sirineou

Are you serious? I don't know , why don't you ask Ambassador Burns now director of CIA Angela Merkel, Sarkozy , why they thought that Russia will consider Nato expansion into Ukraine as a "De facto declaration of war. "

In his first argument against the assertion that Russia had no choice starts with : "I believe that Russia is an expansionist imperial power " "Russia believes that it has always been surrounded by external threats " and concludes that the argument that "Russia defending itself from Ukraine doesn't really in my mind stand up as a threat to Russia". So let's unpack this. -First, He sets up a strawman argument. That the threat in Russia's mind is Ukraine, which of course is ridiculous. The threat to Russia is NATO. Ukraine by it's self provides no existential threat to Russia. -Second: He offers no supporting evidence , but opinion, he says "in my mind " - Third: he offers the opinion that this is somehow an Imperialist expansionist issue, but presents no reasons why he thinks so, where Mearsheimer, presented facts why he does not think Russia attacked Ukraine to occupied is, he presented past Putin stamens, and the fact that Russia went in to Ukraine with less than 200k troops. No one defeats and occupies a country of 44 million people with less than 200k troops. Then he goes on to say: That "Puttin yearns for respect", "and because of past successes elsewhere he thought he could do the same in Ukraine "and concludes " If he thought he could do the same , but of course he failed" "if it that was his rational choice the outcome was irrational " So again he offers arguable opinions , and qualifies it with an "If" There is no one who argues that Putin went into Ukraine because Putin would get respect out of it. This argument is ludicrous, and at best persona opinion. Mearsheimer, on the other hand provides supporting evidence why he thinks Russia went in because of NATO expansion. H says there were plenty of warning to the west , by notable individuals such as US Ambassadors to Russia,and current director of the CIA , Angela Merkel, Tenet, etc. and provided the evidence. -Fourth: he says :"Mearsheimer like some others in the Realist movement believe that Ukraine should subdue" "I fundamentally disagree ,every independent nation should have the right to belong to which ever club it wants " I agree!! In a perfect world perhaps ,but the reality is that it does not, Did Cuba had that choice, Granada? Nicaragua? etc He seems to not have heard of a little thing called the Monroe Doctrine So now he is arguing with himself. earlier he said that it was not because of NATO but "Imperialist and expansionist" aspect s now he seems to concede that this is about NATO, but against Ukraine's right to Join NATO. By this point ,this video is becoming painful to watch, but out of respect I will continue on. Then he makes a speech about what he thinks Ukraine should and should not do. Then he goes on to talk about the 2008 Bucharest NATO where the decision to offer NATO membership happened, He says that Mearsheimer claimed that at this meeting it was said that " there was a clear path for Ukraine to join NATO and proclaims " NO IT WAS NOT " and continues well "Yes President bush made the statement but Merkel and Sarkozy disagreed . Well Duh... Mearsheimer said the same thing. and said that despite that fact the US continued to push Ukraine toward NATO, training the Ukrainian army, conducting join exercises etc. In fact by the time of the invasion, which was ten years after the Bucharest summit, Ukraine was a de facto NATo member. Then Stubb. makes another speech about how NATO was in Europe not as a defence against Russia but to protect European countries from attacking each other. Yes perhaps that was one role , but not the only one . I am sorry. I gave up after 14 minutes in to this video , Stubb. does nothing contradict Mearsheimer's claims , but only offers opinion and pleads "Believe me I was there" Are there any seminars where Stubb made these claims where afterwards there was a Q&A where such statements could be challenged and defended? I would be interested to watch. What institutions have invited Mr Stubb to to offer his opinion? If there is any information after that time stamp please let me know and I will try to address it. Also If there are any points Mearsheimer makes that you or anyone else disagrees with please let me know and I promise to look into them and if true change my opinion.

All booked ????

Certainly not

First let me start by saying that I take no pleasure in what I say, I simply state the facts as I know them and provide supporting links to such facts , I hope you appreciate the amount of work that I put in this Unlike those who might not want to invest the time to watch these hours, seminars and interviews, I have. https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/europe/russia-ukraine-military-comparison-intl/index.html "Where is your source that Ukraine will soon start running out of the well trained forces? " I think it is a fair assumption that they put trained soldiers in their assault wouldn't you agree? TheDW reported that Ukraine has lost 20% , If that is correct they lost close to 40,000 troops , That is a staggering loss regardless how some might want to spin it. That is my opinion. I was also kind enough to provide you with the interview of Edward Luttwak, a respected Author, tactician and advisor to goverment heads .You might not want to watch an hour long analysis, I understand that, so below is a screen shot of the video cover . Why do you think that Edward Luttwak id of the opinion that Biden and Putin are ready to make a deal? By the way, the war situation in Ukraine is not the only reason, There is the other little thing called China. Luttwak, as are many others is also of the opinion that Ukraine will lose about one third of it's eastern territories. None of these people I quoted delve in what is good, what is bad, and what id fair, and neither do I , simply in to what is.as they see it. If there are others who think different I love to hear it. Trust me nothing would make me happier.

Unfortunately , what the Senators Shafted was the country, They might have made Pita a favor. A Thai PM make US$ 3,638 monthly ,Pita is a Harvard and MIT graduate. as such back in the US he could make High six figures in the US.

What is the above intended to prove, that a newspaper somewhere has an opinion that agrees with you? As for Mearsheimer's reputation,institutions such as Yale university, the bush school of goverment, The Robert Schuman center for advanced studies, at the center of strategic and international studies. Center for international policy studies Ottawa.,USC Berkeley. International association for political science students, University of California, Hoover institute, Interviewed by every major newspaper and news station, Thought highly enough of him to invite him to talk . I am sorry if the Sydney morning Herald did not like him. DW did not report any of the above you say, That was speculation by a person being interviewed by DW, " the Ukrainian forces hope that they might be able to puncture through some of these lines of defence" Well Duh!! of course the hope that, what would they hope? Is there a fighting force in the history of the world that did not hope that? What DW and the NY times reported is that Ukraine has lost 20% of it's forces and has only recaptured 8 out of 96 km , At this rate of attrition, Do the math , but even if the attrition rate slows down to 10% per 8k ? The bottom line is That Russia has 10x the troops and Ukraine will soon start running out of the well trained forces and would have to start throwing their youth in to the meat grinder. As horrible as that is , it is reality recognized by any military strategist. Which exactly what Edward Luttwak said in the Unheard interview, I was so kind to provide a link in in support of my opinion. The only support of your opinion you have provided is an opinion article ny the Sydney Morning Herald. , please excuse me if I am not impressed. You said "I'll ignore the hair cut trolling remark " How was the remark trolling? You entirely ignored everything he had to say which supported what I said

All the ones who are not supported by idiots.

Are you saying that the report by DW is incorrect? Instead of ad hominem attacks om Mearsheimer , which part of what he said do you disagree? What about Edward Luttwak , perhaps you don't like his haircut?

First let me say this, I am just a guy like you living in Thailand , I personally know little of this , and parrot what I read. As there is propaganda or the Russian narrative in Russia ,so there is in the west , combined with a lot of wishful thinking. To get a realistic picture you have to go to Youtube and watch seminars on on the subject from reliable and respected sources . Seminars in Yale University , Harvard , oxford union , etc. I have yet to hear anyone who believes that this does not end with Ukraine losing a significant part of it's teratorn' The consensus seem to be 1/3 . All major news outlets and reporters in the west will not put their publication, or career on lline and go against public sentiment and the prevailing narrative. .Propaganda, is not in what you are told. What you are told has to be basically true, but in what you are not being told. "The Yes but" So you have to go to the record; William Burns now CIA director, then Ambassador to Russia in 2008 wrote in a memo to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice: "Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players . . . I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests." Link to the actual document from the congressional record : https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2022-02-10/html/CREC-2022-02-10-pt1-PgS632-2.htm A lot there to unpack but in relevant to our conversation as it pertains to Russian sentiment concerning the issue. See bottom of Page S633 Two paragraphs up from S634. Burns was not the only one, Angela Merkel said the same. "Russia will consider NATO expansion into Ukraine a de facto declaration of war. As unfortunate as it is, The point is , that as much as we might wish otherwise , even if Putin was to be replaced the one replacing him would not be any better but perhaps worst. And the Russian policy towards Nato expansion into Ukraine will remain the same.

I am not sure where you are getting your information. According to all exerts the counteroffensive is not going very well for Ukraine, , last estimate I heard they have lost 20% of their forces, and have only reclaimed 8 out of 86km . The reason why cluster munitions are being send there is because they are running out of Artillery ammunition and the production infrastructure can not keep pace with their need . In the meantime Russia has huge stockpiles . Every international affairs expert I have listen too has said that this war could last for a long time, and would probably end with Ukraine losing the Donbas territories and Crimean Peninsula.. All of the below are credible well respected sources https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrKjgeCUAZA&t=139s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bIdcu0o9Pc&t=9s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfJNK2rLlQ

Hotter than average and record are two different things. I am a faster than average runner but I have yet to brake any records.

My friend , i am sure you can do it for free someplace else, what you here for is the quality. The first three are free after that you got to pay 3.99 plus shipping and handling. Taxes might apply, consult with your local BS provider.

Yea my experience also , nothing to it. I stand corrected. I always thought that Retirement visa was easier because you did not have to jump through the hoops of home visit etc. Is the home visit when applying for the one year a requirement or is it a random thing they do to keep people honest?

Your ill-health Idea is not bad and might be also used as an excuse for a plea deal In discovery the defence will see all the evidence and witness list, They will also have a part in jury selection, They IMO, they will have a pretty good idea where this trial is going and what their chances of acquittal are. Perhaps trump will proclaim his innocence and witch-hunt, but when they see where this is going he would conveniently get sick, claim that due to the illness and for the good of the country and some other nonsense, he is sadly forced to withdraw from the campaign . bla bla bla, and he will got to Fl to play golf, while all those who together with him marched to the go to jail . Remember that by the time this takes place most primaries would have taken place and he could very well be the presumptive Republican nominee. Anyway , He is a mentally ill person and as such unpredictable , so one thing is for sure, for the next Year or so we will have plenty of material to argue about

It all depends On what each side considers winning to be. The question is, what are the objectives?

Yea but Germany did not have nuclear weapons.

Not bad! depending on the level of participation of course , and will there be popcorn?

During the cool months me and the wife ride our bicycles 5-10 km a fer times a week . I used to run but it got tough on my knees. Now that it's hot I go to the community pool a few time a week and do laps. I find it to be good low impact exercise without sweating my Deleted off. I have been thinking about getting one of those Nautilus machines for inside an A/C room but I am afraid I will use it for a while and then it will become a dust collector. If you are a strong swimmer I recommend the pool.

Two!!????

I don't get some people. The guy unexpectedly lost someone close in the family. he is asking for some advice and people are making jokes. No one loves a joke more than I do but there is a place for it and IMO this is not. Sorry for your loss my friend. Hope everything works out well.I know the family must be devastated.

Oh ok. I thought they only did it for marriage extensions. But yea , they very nice people .

I like to know how you escaped my ignore section ????

With labradors there is always the danger that they will lick you to death ???? Lovely dogs and some of the best to have.

Of course they would. As far as I know they only do the visit for the extension to stay based on Marriage, Do they make residence inspections for other visas? Honestly I don't know but I don't think so. When I did my extension to stay I got an under consideration stamp, a week later twi IO came to our house had a couple pf sodas took a picture in front of the house by the number, The village head man and a neighbor came over as witnesses, that i really lived there , All and all a very pleasant experience. As far as I am concerned they can come every week. I don't know why anyone would make a big deal of it. But perhaps other areas are more difficult, I have only done it in this area.