Poll: Yingluck case may affect Pheu Thai popularity

[Baerboxer]

2 minutes ago, pornprong said:

Then you know the result of the next election.

 

No, I cannot see into the future. Nor can anyone else.

 

 

[pornprong]

Just now, Baerboxer said:

No, I cannot see into the future. Nor can anyone else.

You can get a fair understanding of how the future will unfold by looking at the past...or you can of course choose to live in denial, whatever floats your boat I guess.

 

PTP romps home

QED

 

[Baerboxer]

Just now, pornprong said:

You can get a fair understanding of how the future will unfold by looking at the past...or you can of course choose to live in denial, whatever floats your boat I guess.

 

PTP romps home

QED

 

 

Many historical political dynasties, that were founded on lot's of little white lies and weren't really democratic in its entirety, got rumbled. And justice wasn't always pleasant. Some were allowed to enjoy the amazingly acquired wealth. Other "family dynasties" faced the wrath of their people. Recent history has some good examples.

 

Just like they romped home in the "safe" seat of Don Meuang By-Election and their telephone pole failed to win the Bangkok governor election! Nothing so uncertain as a political certainty!

[wakeupplease]

9 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I am curious...

 

Does anyone believe that this is an accurate and fair poll?

 

Anyone?

Is any poll accurate and fair around here? Does the word No come to mind?

[wakeupplease]

24 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

No, I cannot see into the future. Nor can anyone else.

 

 

Unless you are a fortune teller like the man has.

[pornprong]

18 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Many historical political dynasties, that were founded on lot's of little white lies and weren't really democratic in its entirety, got rumbled. And justice wasn't always pleasant. Some were allowed to enjoy the amazingly acquired wealth. Other "family dynasties" faced the wrath of their people. Recent history has some good examples.

 

Just like they romped home in the "safe" seat of Don Meuang By-Election and their telephone pole failed to win the Bangkok governor election! Nothing so uncertain as a political certainty!

You've chosen denial.

Hope it works out well for you.

Don't think it will though.

Bring on the election.

Whilst PTP are a busy rompin, you'll be busy a cryin.

[scorecard]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 

I have to disagree with the idea that being in opposition is a 'Western' construct. Yes, it has its roots in the West, but it has been prevalent in Asia for a while now; Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Malaysia, etc. It doesn't work the same way in Asia, but that is to be expected. And while the concept of "Face" might be a bit stronger here in Thailand, it does exist elsewhere and they have managed to adapt. There is no reason to believe that it cannot happen here.

 

Forgive me, but in my view your argument goes downhill after that. The picture that you paint of the PTP/Red side as being purely a construct of Thaksin for his own benefit doesn't really fly. I forget the exact numbers, but in the last election, the PTP got roughly 15 million votes. Yes, the money provided by the Shins and the other families does help a great deal in getting elected, but I think you are missing the forest for the trees.

 

It is logical for the people in the North and North East to vote for a party that they think represents them, and it seems clear to me that they do not believe any of the other parties do so. And, the idea that all those votes were "bought" is nonsense; If I were a Thai and lived in Issan, I sure as hell wouldn't be voting for anyone else. The 'secret' of Thaksin and the Reds' success is that they listened to the people in the North and North East; it is that simple. You mention "Face" in your post; for a very long time people in Bangkok have not been giving 'face' to the voters, rather they have been disparaging them as "Red Buffaloes". Why would they vote for people who do that? 

 

If any other party wants to be competitive up north, they are going to have to treat the people there with respect. And, I don't see that happening. Thus, they will continue to support the Reds/PTP/whatever the next version is.

 

Best to get prepared for when the will govern again.

 

 

 

"...The 'secret' of Thaksin and the Reds' success is that they listened to the people in the North and North East ..."

 

I don't believe that at all.

 

Additionally in the last several elections the other parties were physically barred from campaigning in the NE and in the North . 

[pornprong]

2 minutes ago, scorecard said:

"...The 'secret' of Thaksin and the Reds' success is that they listened to the people in the North and North East ..."

I don't believe that at all.

Believe it or not, it's true.

 

2 minutes ago, scorecard said:

Additionally in the last several elections the other parties were physically barred from campaigning in the NE and in the North . 

Claptrap.

 

[Baerboxer]

Just now, pornprong said:

You've chosen denial.

Hope it works out well for you.

Don't think it will though.

Bring on the election.

Whilst PTP are a busy rompin, you'll be busy a cryin.

 

Why on earth would I be crying?

 

I doubt the Thai people would re-elect PTP but should they do so that would be their choice.

 

But, if as you say, history can be said to repeat, then the PTP or their new incarnation would again be sloppy in the way they do things and not follow laws. Which would again leave themselves open to removal by a court. And so the cycle repeats - unless it get's broken. Maybe that break has happened, maybe not. We shall see.

[gamini]

Which Thais are you talking about? Pattaya people?  Thais in general have a lot of respect for truth, integrity and ethics. Certainly the ones I know.  You probably mix with the wrong type! There is far to much generalisation on this forum.

[Samui Bodoh]

6 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 

"...The 'secret' of Thaksin and the Reds' success is that they listened to the people in the North and North East ..."

 

I don't believe that at all.

 

Additionally in the last several elections the other parties were physically barred from campaigning in the NE and in the North . 

 

Respectfully, on point 1, we shall have to agree to disagree.

 

On point 2, I would agree that there was some intimidation in the N and NE. And, in the South.

 

What is your point? That is is bad in the N and NE, but okay elsewhere? I would be happy if all parties could and would campaign everywhere.

[wakeupplease]

5 hours ago, scorecard said:

 

I thought about commenting but then I remembered JAG's post a few minutes earlier "Don't worry, the "usual suspects" will be along as soon as they finish breakfast, to remind you that Thaksin/Yingluck ..... .

But you did post must be that OCD thing called Thaksin/Yingluck ..... .

 

We understand

[Samui Bodoh]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

You seem to miss the point, deliberately or by accident, I don't know. I never mentioned "vote buying", you introduced that. What I mentioned was that the Shiniwattra family, via it's Patriarch, actually paid a monthly salary, in addition to the parliamentary salary to PTP MP's. The degree to which this family controls PTP, and I'd suggest the same previously with TRT, can be demonstrated by the Thaksin reshuffling PTP's cabinet several times, even when Yingluck was denying another shuffle was on the cards. Thaksin making one shuffle so he could bring back several of his TRT mates into cabinet once their 5 year corruption bans had expired; and by the constant offshore meetings with Thaksin attended by existing and aspiring PTP ministers, police and others.

 

Whilst it could be said that Western political parties are financed by institutions, businesses, unions, media moguls and others, and have to represent their views, the situation here, especially with PTP is much narrower. Add to that the fact that the UDD seems similarly owned and one family's dominance in those two organizations seems somewhat total. So it's unlikely any changes would or could be made without their sanction. PTP, just as TRT was, are a political vehicle for the Shiniwattra family, and their friends.

 

Political parties, such as they are here, do rely on the feudal and patronage elements within Thai culture, which are still very strong especially in provincial and rural areas which explains the geographic power bases of politicians and their family run parties. All parties also have strong support networks in their areas to help enforce loyalty. Changes to this may be happening in Bangkok and adjoining areas but will take some time to filter outwards. 

 

Perhaps you believe the Amnesty Bill wasn't just for one's person's benefit but was a genuine attempt at reconciliation? 

 

People in the third world, Asia, Africa, South America, vote for who they think might look after them, but modified by patronage, tribal, ethnic, peer pressure, feudal, traditional, or religious pressures. That mix may vary from region to region, country to country. But those factors help corrupt politicians to get re-elected. It's almost "better a devil you know than don't know" symptom coupled with a nurtured unquestioning loyalty.

 

In just the same way that Suthep and the Dems do down South, the Shins do up North. 

 

Family run political parties, aren't anything knew in the West. If you are interested check and see how many of the current British parliament come from old political families and have ancestors who were active in politics before them (not just the Lords). Names are sometimes changed, and not just through marriage! But you might be surprises as many were / are Labor politicians. But that family, class domination was  British thing, that's slowly working itself out.

 

Politicians in the West now, in the main, have to rely on a good manifesto, which is challenged prior to an election, and used to judge their results. Here, and in other third world countries, no. Still very much about the local important family, peer pressure, who you traditionally vote for and who you never would. In such scenarios, manipulations are much easier.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, it is true that I don't really see your point. Sorry about that; I am genuinely interested in a discussion rather than an argument, but I do seem to have missed your point.

 

Is the PTP tightly controlled by a small group of people (the family)? Yes. Virtually all political parties around the world are controlled by small groups of people. Would I prefer that small group be wider? Yes. However, is it really that different from political parties in other countries? Perhaps to a degree, but not hugely different; think of the Lee family in Singapore. If you look at the biographies of the cabinet of the last Dem government, you'll see plenty of "Son of..." or Daughter of..." Family control of political parties in Asia is common, why is it bad here?

 

Was the amnesty bill designed to get Thaksin back? Yes, I think so. The important point to me is that it didn't work. At that time, I LOVED the protesters who fought it. And if they had stopped and allowed an election, it would have been a wonderful thing. But they didn't and look where we are now. And if I may, you should be happy about that; the lesson from those days is that Thaksin cannot come back, ever. 

 

Would I like to see the PTP expand its base away from a regional  party and develop policies to compete better nationally? Yes, read my post.

 

Where I get lost in this is with people who really dislike the PTP (I hope that is a fair characterization) don't seem to be too bothered with other parties and/or entities that do the same. Are the Dems and/or the military much different? I don't think so. And since we don't know who finances them, I assume that they are just as bad.

 

So, to sum up, I understand that some really don't like the PTP. Why are you not equally as angry about the others?

 

Cheers

 

 

[Baerboxer]

3 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Yes, it is true that I don't really see your point. Sorry about that; I am genuinely interested in a discussion rather than an argument, but I do seem to have missed your point.

 

Is the PTP tightly controlled by a small group of people (the family)? Yes. Virtually all political parties around the world are controlled by small groups of people. Would I prefer that small group be wider? Yes. However, is it really that different from political parties in other countries? Perhaps to a degree, but not hugely different; think of the Lee family in Singapore. If you look at the biographies of the cabinet of the last Dem government, you'll see plenty of "Son of..." or Daughter of..." Family control of political parties in Asia is common, why is it bad here?

 

Was the amnesty bill designed to get Thaksin back? Yes, I think so. The important point to me is that it didn't work. At that time, I LOVED the protesters who fought it. And if they had stopped and allowed an election, it would have been a wonderful thing. But they didn't and look where we are now. And if I may, you should be happy about that; the lesson from those days is that Thaksin cannot come back, ever. 

 

Would I like to see the PTP expand its base away from a regional  party and develop policies to compete better nationally? Yes, read my post.

 

Where I get lost in this is with people who really dislike the PTP (I hope that is a fair characterization) don't seem to be too bothered with other parties and/or entities that do the same. Are the Dems and/or the military much different? I don't think so. And since we don't know who finances them, I assume that they are just as bad.

 

So, to sum up, I understand that some really don't like the PTP. Why are you not equally as angry about the others?

 

Cheers

 

 

 

Good post. If you note, I am also critical of the Dems (although they are fairly anonymous at the moment), and how they have their fiefdom in the South. 

 

Here, and in some other countries throughout Asia, Africa, South America and Eastern Europe, the political party is owned and controlled by the very narrow family or family and close friends; and thrives in an environment riddled with corruption. All organizations here, public, private or third sector are controlled in similar ways.

 

I don't see the cycle of events here changing without some very radical reforms - and I don't see the people who could start and drive that being very interested in any reforms; only ones that suit themselves.

 

 

[joecoolfrog]

16 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

So says a another new poster, joined last Friday - welcome! 53 posts to-date, all on political discussions and all supporting Yingluck and PTP!

 

Always nice to see a new unbiased poster who doesn't have an agenda! 

Pot , Kettle , Black !

[joecoolfrog]

16 hours ago, gamini said:

Which Thais are you talking about? Pattaya people?  Thais in general have a lot of respect for truth, integrity and ethics. Certainly the ones I know.  You probably mix with the wrong type! There is far to much generalisation on this forum.

Are you even aware that you made a huge generalisation yourself ?

[spidermike007]

20 hours ago, JAG said:

Thought provoking.

 

If they do not enter the lists in the next election, will they perhaps fall foul of the principal that if a party does not compete in an election it disbars itself from the next one?

I know that clause was not enforced in the case of the Democratic Party (well surprise surprise), and I don't know if the same rule exists in the new constitution. If it does it will surely be gleefully enforced, if it doesn't it will probably be retrospectively introduced.

 

If they do take part, win a majority of elected seats and form a government you can as you suggest expect them to be overruled constantly be the "independent agencies", Suthep and his goons will probably hit the streets again, there will be manufactured "chaos" and thy will be removed at some stage, to be replaced by a junta.

 

Taking part, but not attempting to form a government? Well that may be a better way. Their presence in the lower house, especially if they have a majority of seats, will be a permanent reminder, domestically and internationally of the gerrymandered nature of the new system. The case for doing so will need to be well-made, and constantly re-presented to the public.  There may well be a reluctance to form a government, even if it is theoretically possible given the "casualty rate" - jailed and missing of those who did last time round! Their presence in the elected house may serve as a Siamese  equivalent of the slave who rode in the Roman Emperors chariot on grand occasions, whispering "remember you too are mortal" in the imperial ear....

 

When the current regime, or it's gerrymandered successor self destructs, they will be better placed to succeed.

 

I firmly believe there will never be another military coup. I believe we have seen the last one. Why? Well, the moral authority that was present for the past 70 years, that more or less allowed the coups to happen, and gave them the blessing of the people, is now gone. Forever. So, there is no longer a moral authority to sanction the coup. And without it, the people will not back it, and will resist with every ounce of their strength. So, the only way for one to happen now, is if it was a brutal Egyptian style coup like the one in 1952, the Pakistani coup of 1958, the Burmese coup of 1963, or the Pinochet coup of 1973.

 

And I think the army understands this predicament. And that is at least part of the reason they are hanging on with such a sense of desperation. Remember. The reason for them remaining in power, was to assure a smooth passage. Once that happens, whatever tiny shred of legitimacy they had, will be gone. Forever.