Why the baht has been weakening

[1FinickyOne]

5 hours ago, Suradit69 said:

Yes, for most pe,pole buying baht monthly or quarterly, the baht is stronger or, more realistically, the dollar is weaker . 

 

The o/p following his first post is simply trying to recover fr.om the absurdity of his original post.

I think he just mixed up the words - - as others here have... Capt Haddock saw going down as weakening and now does not want to own up to it... or else, something is fishy. 

[ginjag]

Sterling has been gaining against the Euro and the dollar for the past 2 weeks.     I go to this exchange rate on the header page.  up from about 42  to about 45  baht to the pound.

 

[Bill Miller]

"Since about Sept 19 until now, the period of interest to me, if not, perhaps, to you, the number of baht to the dollar has increased representing a decrease in the value of the baht."
Very short term. Are you a day trader? Just curious.
The baht has gained 7% vs USD over a 26 month period. That sounds like mid range strengthening.
I have seen talk of a correction to around 34.5, but did not see any explanation. Probably did not look as, in common with most expats, my concern is how many baht will I get this month when I transfer my living funds in to Thailand. 

[AloisAmrein]

The THB is not strengthening, but the USD is weakening. And the € strengthening. So you get more THB for the € and less THB for the USD.

[LammyTS1]

Was amazed how much the baht had weakened in just 1 day last Friday. 

42 baht would buy £1 on Thursday and then close of business Friday, had increased to 45.

Its steadied over the past week and currently sitting at 44.7.

Possibly the weakest the baht has ever been against the pound in the past year. 

[tomas557]

9 minutes ago, LammyTS1 said:

42 baht would buy £1 on Thursday and then close of business Friday, had increased to 45.

You're dreaming

 

14/9

 

15/9

Edited September 23, 2017 by tomas557

[LammyTS1]

Sorry, having checked it was 43 up to 45 in 1 day.

42 up to 45 in a month.

Either way, the baht has weakened against the £.

 

[hawker9000]

 

 

Looks like the baht strengthened against the pound thru the middle of last year, but has been in a fairly well-defined range (btwn abt 43 & 45) ever since.

If you look at 5Y and 10Y charts, the reduced volatility over the last year is even more apparent.  It's at the top of the last 12mo range, but not really showing any signs of breaking out.  It was about where it is now in July, May, late Jan, and last July, Sep and Dec.   'Just don't see any real news here unless you're a forex day trader.

 

[Aussieroaming]

On 22 September 2017 at 5:00 PM, Prometheus33 said:

.......... Absolutely , in September 2015 I got THB 36 to 1 U.S. Dollar , in 2016 I got THB 35 to the Dollar , in June this year I got 33.80 to 34 .. 

THB has gradually strengthened .. 

Agreed, I get paid in $US and I watch the slow decline of the $ vs Baht monthly, damned depressing actually.

[meatboy]

last fri.GBP to bht.was 44.44 closed at 44.42 up almost 2bht.on last month [42.56] TT rate[scb]

this week mon.44.20 yesterday 44.09.so is the slide goner continue.

I only change once a yr.so every bht.over 42 is a bonus,so as I pay 30gbp.per trans.i got to get it right.

[hawker9000]

54 minutes ago, meatboy said:

last fri.GBP to bht.was 44.44 closed at 44.42 up almost 2bht.on last month [42.56] TT rate[scb]

this week mon.44.20 yesterday 44.09.so is the slide goner continue.

I only change once a yr.so every bht.over 42 is a bonus,so as I pay 30gbp.per trans.i got to get it right.

While the chart I clipped above shows the mid-market rate rather than the TT (telegraphic transfer) rate,  if you're getting anything over 44 baht to the pound, I think it's probably a good time to make the trade.  (In fact, are you sure that's the actual buy rate?)   While there may be some little further "slide" in the value of the baht you refer to, I personally think there's more downside risk for you than upside potential (that is, a greater chance of the baht "recovering" moderately against the pound - meaning you'll get less baht - than of declining significantly further against the pound).   Trying to time the least last satang is an almost impossible call to make, and like I say, I think there's more risk to the downside than the upside at this price.

 

Strictly my opinion.

 

[meatboy]

2 hours ago, hawker9000 said:

While the chart I clipped above shows the mid-market rate rather than the TT (telegraphic transfer) rate,  if you're getting anything over 44 baht to the pound, I think it's probably a good time to make the trade.  (In fact, are you sure that's the actual buy rate?)   While there may be some little further "slide" in the value of the baht you refer to, I personally think there's more downside risk for you than upside potential (that is, a greater chance of the baht "recovering" moderately against the pound - meaning you'll get less baht - than of declining significantly further against the pound).   Trying to time the least last satang is an almost impossible call to make, and like I say, I think there's more risk to the downside than the upside at this price.

 

Strictly my opinion.

 

I have always used SCB bank for my trans.i done my homework yrs.ago before moveing and set the expence budget at 42bht.to the pound.i did keep 2yrs.reserve exs.and have been very lucky the past 8yrs.getting 54-46.a lot of expats who set their budget at a high rate are now finding it tough going,and with all imported goods going only one way UP and even thai foodstuffs not cheap anymore,they are goner find the going TOUGH.

I am happy that I have a wife who doesn't spend money.if it wasn't for her [20yrs] in the uk.i wouldn't be where I am today.

with zero rate in the uk.as long as its a few satang over 42 I am happy.one thing I have found in Thailand you lose your sense of value of the baht.against the pound.

[Berkshire]

The dollar has popped back above 33, so perhaps the bottom has been reached.  Please note that this is not a scientific statement but rather wishful thinking....

[LammyTS1]

I got 44.67 to the £ on Monday.

[Shiver]

This site has reasonably up to date exchange rates for various Banks:

 

https://daytodaydata.net/

[Aussieroaming]

6 hours ago, meatboy said:

I have always used SCB bank for my trans.i done my homework yrs.ago before moveing and set the expence budget at 42bht.to the pound.i did keep 2yrs.reserve exs.and have been very lucky the past 8yrs.getting 54-46.a lot of expats who set their budget at a high rate are now finding it tough going,and with all imported goods going only one way UP and even thai foodstuffs not cheap anymore,they are goner find the going TOUGH.

I am happy that I have a wife who doesn't spend money.if it wasn't for her [20yrs] in the uk.i wouldn't be where I am today.

with zero rate in the uk.as long as its a few satang over 42 I am happy.one thing I have found in Thailand you lose your sense of value of the baht.against the pound.

I've set my retirement goal on being able to survive on my annual bank interest, currently my target is set at 2M baht /year. I figure if I can live off of the float then the principle is there for emergency's. I will achieve that next year and intend working for another 4 years after that just for buffer. My wife doesn't waste a Satang either, she knows that whatever I earn has more than the value of today's market. I intend stopping before 60, so hope the stars align.

 

 

 

[meatboy]

14 hours ago, Aussieroaming said:

I've set my retirement goal on being able to survive on my annual bank interest, currently my target is set at 2M baht /year. I figure if I can live off of the float then the principle is there for emergency's. I will achieve that next year and intend working for another 4 years after that just for buffer. My wife doesn't waste a Satang either, she knows that whatever I earn has more than the value of today's market. I intend stopping before 60, so hope the stars align.

 

 

 

I wish I could have stopped working at 60  [2004] and been in the same position as you.

but going back to the 1980's if I can remember the baht was at 38 to the pound.i have seen interest in the bank as much as 13% and exchange rate at 97. those who want to retire to Thailand on just a pension can FORGET IT.

[Aussieroaming]

2 hours ago, meatboy said:

I wish I could have stopped working at 60  [2004] and been in the same position as you.

but going back to the 1980's if I can remember the baht was at 38 to the pound.i have seen interest in the bank as much as 13% and exchange rate at 97. those who want to retire to Thailand on just a pension can FORGET IT.

Yes, I'm calculating on 1.5% interest but if it rises to 4 of 5% that would be a bonanza. Reality is though 2M/annum wont be a deluxe life by the time I'm in my 70's. I also know things can turn pitong, having lost over $800K about 7 years ago, which put a spanner in my works. 

[Shiver]

20 minutes ago, Aussieroaming said:

Yes, I'm calculating on 1.5% interest but if it rises to 4 of 5% that would be a bonanza. Reality is though 2M/annum wont be a deluxe life by the time I'm in my 70's. I also know things can turn pitong, having lost over $800K about 7 years ago, which put a spanner in my works. 

That link I posted yesterday showing exchange rates had as much as 0.53% difference depending on which bank is used.  If you're working on 1.5% that addition is significant, even if it's only a derivative addition.

I was chatting about exchange rates with a friend last night because of this thread, and he said he goes to a gold shop that will beat any bank rate (maybe not by much, but if you're bringing over an annual amount it's worth the extra effort).  I don't know if the dedicated exchanges do T/T or if it's only for walk in paper currency (they don't have one in my part of Issan).  Maybe BKK/Patts people can chime in.

[LammyTS1]

19 hours ago, Aussieroaming said:

I've set my retirement goal on being able to survive on my annual bank interest, currently my target is set at 2M baht /year. I figure if I can live off of the float then the principle is there for emergency's. I will achieve that next year and intend working for another 4 years after that just for buffer. My wife doesn't waste a Satang either, she knows that whatever I earn has more than the value of today's market. I intend stopping before 60, so hope the stars align.

 

 

 

Retire now. You are a multi millionaire!

 

 

[Aussieroaming]

8 hours ago, LammyTS1 said:

Retire now. You are a multi millionaire!

 

 

Too early to retire and I want to buy my children a house each. Besides I really like my job and it pays well, hard combination to walk away from. Even if I do retire at 60 I will still want to work on interesting projects, it just means I won't have to work on the crap ones.

[Aussieroaming]

11 hours ago, Shiver said:

That link I posted yesterday showing exchange rates had as much as 0.53% difference depending on which bank is used.  If you're working on 1.5% that addition is significant, even if it's only a derivative addition.

I was chatting about exchange rates with a friend last night because of this thread, and he said he goes to a gold shop that will beat any bank rate (maybe not by much, but if you're bringing over an annual amount it's worth the extra effort).  I don't know if the dedicated exchanges do T/T or if it's only for walk in paper currency (they don't have one in my part of Issan).  Maybe BKK/Patts people can chime in.

My salary goes from the company bank to my Thai account. Stuck with whatever the currency exchange is on the day, though I can keep it in the limbo account for 12 months on zero interest. 

[meatboy]

9 hours ago, Aussieroaming said:

My salary goes from the company bank to my Thai account. Stuck with whatever the currency exchange is on the day, though I can keep it in the limbo account for 12 months on zero interest. 

yes AR my uk.ac.where all mine and the wife's pensions are in limbo, I haven't drawn any exs.for over 18months yet I get ZERO INTEREST.

so fri.it could go under 44,yesterday on the edge of 44.09.to the gbp

Edited September 29, 2017 by meatboy

[Aussieroaming]

20 minutes ago, meatboy said:

yes AR my uk.ac.where all mine and the wife's pensions are in limbo, I haven't drawn any exs.for over 18months yet I get ZERO INTEREST.

so fri.it could go under 44,yesterday on the edge of 44.09.to the gbp

I sympathise, the nightmare of the currency market being controlled by whatever politics and business drivers are at play. I never know which currency to hols and which to fold. 

[meatboy]

44 minutes ago, Aussieroaming said:

I sympathise, the nightmare of the currency market being controlled by whatever politics and business drivers are at play. I never know which currency to hols and which to fold. 

it doesn't bother me as long as its 42 or over,i have built up a good amount over the past eight yrs.it pays for all we have done around the house plus what I have bought eg,[inr machine,bp machine my booze ect] so actually we don't touch our capitol.

but anybody thinking about retirering to los make sure you do your homework and add those LITTLE extra's.

surprise scb.opening TT rate 44.26

Edited September 29, 2017 by meatboy