Trump says 'only one thing will work' with North Korea

[Morch]

14 hours ago, sirineou said:

I can't talk for that poster and have no love lost for neither The NK or the current US leader, but don]t we agree that what's good for the goose must be good for the gander?

If NK it is the aim of NK to enforce communism on SK , Isn't the stated aim of the west to enforce capitalism on NK?

How about no one enforces anything on nobody? Let systems stand or fall on their own merits.

 

North Korea's (or rather, Kim's) system is an hereditary  dictatorship, regardless of nominal ideological labels. It does not stand on its own "merits". North Koreans do not get to choose their leadership or to have a say on policy and political system. Most Western countries allow for political movements and parties which uphold differing ideas, leaving the choice to the electorate. 

 

I don't know that the aim of the West is to enforce capitalism on North Korea. Pretty sure it's not a stated aim, at least not for many years now. If North Korea was to be ruled by a less aggressive, hostile and repressive leadership, doubt that the "West" would greatly object, regardless of capitalism being formally adopted.

 

[Morch]

14 hours ago, Grouse said:

I don't think Kim wants war. He would lose everything

 

Now, move the civilians and key industries a hundred miles and Kim has a problem.

 

Its been done. Hindus & Seikhs? Germans out of Poland. French fleeing south? Russians fleeing East...

 

 

 

Kim may or may not want war. But sometimes leaders miscalculate, panic or take action based on wrong information. Things might happen without anyone wishing for them to.

 

Still no explanation how "civilians and key industries" could be moved on the scale required, or what protection would the new location provide. The cost alone is staggering, not to mention prolonged effects on the economy.

 

It's not been done in an orderly manner, in peace time, and under a non-totalitarian regime.

[Morch]

14 hours ago, Kieran00001 said:

 

I doubt it but it does rubbish your claim that no one asks them, as if we are completely in the dark, when in reality we have a steady stream of people telling us how things are, and people from all ranks.

 

How so?

 

First of all, estimates as to the total figures quote anything from 100,000 to 300,000 (spread over more than 50 years). Many of these, if not most, crossed over to the PRC and Russia. Second, still no support offered that there's a reliable review of general positions and accounts. 

 

I haven't said anything about being completely in the dark, just disagreeing with the take on reliability of information available.

[Kieran00001]

10 hours ago, boomerangutang said:

No one really knows what N.Koreans think. They know what they're required to think, and some of the brighter folks there know they've been fed just one side of the story.  

 

One of the biggest threats to Kim's control is info.  N.Koreans (outside of those at the top of the pyramid), are kept in the dark as much as possible.  Getting good info to N.Koreans would be half the battle - toward them overthrowing their stupid leader and/or toward unification.

 

Of course we really know what North Koreans think, we have 300,000 escaped dissidents to talk to, they may be of the "brighter" variety, or they may have just been brave, and at least some of them received the information from the pamphlet balloon drops telling them about life on the other side.

 

There have been information campaigns since the last war, 2.5 billion pamphlets dropped during the war years alone, they have dropped information in the form of pamphlets, USB sticks, DVD's and SD cards and even radios while broadcasting information about the outside world.  Getting information to them is not actually that hard, but getting them to believe it and not just assume it to be an attempt to corrupt them with the evils of the Western world is a different matter.

[Kieran00001]

6 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

How so?

 

First of all, estimates as to the total figures quote anything from 100,000 to 300,000 (spread over more than 50 years). Many of these, if not most, crossed over to the PRC and Russia. Second, still no support offered that there's a reliable review of general positions and accounts. 

 

I haven't said anything about being completely in the dark, just disagreeing with the take on reliability of information available.

 

You said "Pity no one actually asks them."

 

Well we do, whether there are 100,000 or 300,000, we ask them.

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said:

 

You said "Pity no one actually asks them."

 

Well we do, whether there are 100,000 or 300,000, we ask them.

 

Guess it would depend on how much you trust this sample accurately  represent sentiments within North Korea. And again, I am not aware that there's an updated general survey of views relevant to all of them. As most didn't even come to South Korea, or the West, "we" didn't ask them.

 

That the original comment was with regard to North Koreans currently living under Kim's rule will probably be ignored again.

[Kieran00001]

Just now, Morch said:

 

Guess it would depend on how much you trust this sample accurately  represent sentiments within North Korea. And again, I am not aware that there's an updated general survey of views relevant to all of them. As most didn't even come to South Korea, or the West, "we" didn't ask them.

 

That the original comment was with regard to North Koreans currently living under Kim's rule will probably be ignored again.

 

OK, so now it has gone from "no one actually asks them" to "can you trust what they say when asked", cool stuff.

 

We have interviews by China, Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, Philippines, Russia, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Holland, Norway, Sweden, UK, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, USA, Vietnam and Canada.  Which of these countries interviews count as "us" in your clearly bigoted mind?  There are 26,000 North Koreans in South Korea to ask, it is no small sample so just get over it, we do ask them.

 

And they are interviewed when they arrive, intelligence services are very interested in talking to them about feelings in North Korea as subverting them is seen as the best chance of liberating them.  But no, they are not currently in North Korea when interviewed, they have already escaped, but having escaped recently do you not think they may just remember?

[Morch]

3 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said:

 

OK, so now it has gone from "no one actually asks them" to "can you trust what they say when asked", cool stuff.

 

We have interviews by China, Japan, South Korea, Mongolia, Philippines, Russia, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Holland, Norway, Sweden, UK, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, USA, Vietnam and Canada.  Which of these countries interviews count as "us" in your clearly bigoted mind?  There are 26,000 North Koreans in South Korea to ask, it is no small sample so just get over it, we do ask them.

 

And they are interviewed when they arrive, intelligence services are very interested in talking to them about feelings in North Korea as subverting them is seen as the best chance of liberating them.  But no, they are not currently in North Korea when interviewed, they have already escaped, but having escaped recently do you not think they may just remember?

 

No, it didn't go there at all, simply responding to what you posted - which isn't quite what I was referring to. Speaking of cool stuff - keep moving them goal posts.

 

The original reference was to North Korean, rather than North Korean who escaped from North Korea. Now and over blown 300K figure quoted is adjusted way down. A long list of countries is suggested when in fact most of them went to the PRC. Even the existing sample is spread over more than 50 years.

 

As to whether interviews conducted are considered an accurate representation of prevailing current trends within North Korea, or are reliable in forming assessments of how North Koreans would react in various possible scenarios, is not established in your posts.

 

 

[Grouse]

Watching an excellent BBC documentary series on the Vietnam war. Trump should watch it! (Johnson and McNamara)

 

But the point is, I was interested in how the civilians in Hanoi and the like protected themselves against B52 bombing. 

 

I thnk there is much that Seoul citizens can do including relocating out of range of artillery and moving key industries.

Edited October 9, 2017 by Grouse

[Kieran00001]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

 

No, it didn't go there at all, simply responding to what you posted - which isn't quite what I was referring to. Speaking of cool stuff - keep moving them goal posts.

 

The original reference was to North Korean, rather than North Korean who escaped from North Korea. Now and over blown 300K figure quoted is adjusted way down. A long list of countries is suggested when in fact most of them went to the PRC. Even the existing sample is spread over more than 50 years.

 

As to whether interviews conducted are considered an accurate representation of prevailing current trends within North Korea, or are reliable in forming assessments of how North Koreans would react in various possible scenarios, is not established in your posts.

 

 

 

I haven't moved any goal post, the goal you set was no one asks them, clearly that is nonsense when there has been a fairly constant stream escaping since the war, all are interviewed and together they form a reasonable picture of changes in sentiment over the period up to present.

 

300,000 may be a large estimate but it is a given estimate, sure most have gone to China but not many have stayed there, many are sent back after being interviewed but some of those who escape through China come to Thailand for instance.

 

I have not attempted to establish whether or not the interviews of at least tens of thousands of North Koreans form an accurate representation of how North Koreans would react in various scenarios, just to rubbish your claim that is a shame that no one asks them, they are asked and whether or not you choose to believe what the intelligence agencies surmise from those interviews is up to you, but their consensus is that North Koreans will not take an invasion as a liberation, they are fully indoctrinated with hatred for the outside world and are preparing for an invasion.

[thaihome]

53 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

 

I thnk there is much that Seoul citizens can do including relocating out of range of artillery and moving key industries.

 

So, do you think it would be possible to move the almost 9 million people of London, along with all the industry to, say Southampton? Ridiculous idea isn't it?

 

Have you ever been to Seoul?  

 

Also, the post claiming some sort of underground city with massive amounts of food and water below Seoul is completely false. There are thousands of subways, underground parking garages, and basement with signs designating them as "shelters", but most people don't even know it and there is no food

 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-shelters/south-korea-bomb-shelters-forgotten-with-no-food-water-as-north-korea-threat-grows-idUSKBN19S13Z

 

Personally,  I think that Trump is engaging in this rhetoric just to get the headlines and "ratings" that he holds so dear. Kim is only saying what has been said for 3 generations.  

 

It is worth noting that neither the US or N.Korea have made any physical moves towards overt actions during this entire so called crisis. 

 

If the world can live with India and Pakistan in a nuclear standoff for some 30 years now, it can (and will have to) learn to live with a nuclear N. Korea. 

TH 

 

[sirineou]

2 hours ago, Morch said:

 

North Korea's (or rather, Kim's) system is an hereditary  dictatorship, regardless of nominal ideological labels. It does not stand on its own "merits". North Koreans do not get to choose their leadership or to have a say on policy and political system. Most Western countries allow for political movements and parties which uphold differing ideas, leaving the choice to the electorate. 

 

I don't know that the aim of the West is to enforce capitalism on North Korea. Pretty sure it's not a stated aim, at least not for many years now. If North Korea was to be ruled by a less aggressive, hostile and repressive leadership, doubt that the "West" would greatly object, regardless of capitalism being formally adopted.

 

^^^Agreed

But IMO it is the conflict between the two systems, that causes the degeneration of both systems thus not allowing  them to stand or fail on their own merits.

[Morch]

5 minutes ago, Kieran00001 said:

 

I haven't moved any goal post, the goal you set was no one asks them, clearly that is nonsense when there has been a fairly constant stream escaping since the war, all are interviewed and together they form a reasonable picture of changes in sentiment over the period up to present.

 

300,000 may be a large estimate but it is a given estimate, sure most have gone to China but not many have stayed there, many are sent back after being interviewed but some of those who escape through China come to Thailand for instance.

 

I have not attempted to establish whether or not the interviews of at least tens of thousands of North Koreans form an accurate representation of how North Koreans would react in various scenarios, just to rubbish your claim that is a shame that no one asks them, they are asked and whether or not you choose to believe what the intelligence agencies surmise from those interviews is up to you, but their consensus is that North Koreans will not take an invasion as a liberation, they are fully indoctrinated with hatred for the outside world and are preparing for an invasion.

 

I don't know that Western intelligence services share your confidence as to assessments regarding attitudes of the North Korean population. As far as I can tell, much of the public commentary made on the issue highlighted gaps in knowledge and uncertainties related to such predictions. As for the view you push being a "consensus" among them intelligence services, such a claim would need to be supported by something more than "it is so" in order to be taken seriously.

 

300,000 represents the high end of such estimates, most refer to lower figures. As for not many staying in the PRC, again, no idea - don't think there are accurate figures on that. Spread over more than 50 years, these figures are less impressive than they sound. If not mistaken, figures have actually dropped in recent times, which may further effect treating the whole sample uniformly.

 

And again, North Koreans are not presented with options to choose from. There is no open political discussion in North Korea. Kim's regime does not consult the public. Assertions as to what they want or do not want, what their reactions may be if actually presented with options - are mostly guesswork.

[Grouse]

6 minutes ago, thaihome said:

 

So, do you think it would be possible to move the almost 9 million people of London, along with all the industry to, say Southampton? Ridiculous idea isn't it?

 

Have you ever been to Seoul?  

 

Also, the post claiming some sort of underground city with massive amounts of food and water below Seoul is completely false. There are thousands of subways, underground parking garages, and basement with signs designating them as "shelters", but most people don't even know it and there is no food

 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-shelters/south-korea-bomb-shelters-forgotten-with-no-food-water-as-north-korea-threat-grows-idUSKBN19S13Z

 

Personally,  I think that Trump is engaging in this rhetoric just to get the headlines and "ratings" that he holds so dear. Kim is only saying what has been said for 3 generations.  

 

It is worth noting that neither the US or N.Korea have made any physical moves towards overt actions during this entire so called crisis. 

 

If the world can live with India and Pakistan in a nuclear standoff for some 30 years now, it can (and will have to) learn to live with a nuclear N. Korea. 

TH 

 

Well, it's just an idea. Please don't truncate my posts though. Hanoi was able to a great deal and there have been many mass migrations historically.

[owl sees all]

Just follow the money!

 

The Don is not ranting as he is because he really cares about NK one way or another. And definately not over concerns for NK's people. It's because he is being advised! Just look at his inner circle; his advisors. It's loaded with bankers!!!

 

The big difference; Trump the candidate to Trump the president, is that now he understands who really runs the US; and these same people have visions of world domination.

 

 

Edited October 9, 2017 by owl sees all
added more content

[sirineou]

2 hours ago, Morch said:

 

North Korea's (or rather, Kim's) system is an hereditary  dictatorship, regardless of nominal ideological labels. It does not stand on its own "merits". North Koreans do not get to choose their leadership or to have a say on policy and political system. Most Western countries allow for political movements and parties which uphold differing ideas, leaving the choice to the electorate. 

 

I don't know that the aim of the West is to enforce capitalism on North Korea. Pretty sure it's not a stated aim, at least not for many years now. If North Korea was to be ruled by a less aggressive, hostile and repressive leadership, doubt that the "West" would greatly object, regardless of capitalism being formally adopted.

 

On my previous reply to your post you expressed confusion, unfortunately one can not reply to  a reaction, 

so I wil. try to elaborate and see where your confusion lays. 

I agree that the NK communist system has degenerated to the present totalitarian system, and I hope you will also agree that our capitalist system in its effort to  defend against communism and other systems,  has engaged in what one can only politely term, undesirable behaviours 

It is my contention that both these undesirable behaviours and are a result of these adversarial attitude ,

 and that if the goal was the betterment of humanity rather than the survival of a system , then both systems should be allowed to stand or fail on their own merits  and the better system survive for the benefit of humanity.

But sadly I am afraid this is not within human nature.   

[boomerangutang]

               The N.Korean people are an amazing study in group think.  When in NK, they all act the way they're required to act.   Whether they all think the same way is debatable.   If a survey taker were to ask them, that person would get all the same answers.  Yet people can say things which are different than what they really think.   It's called lying.  It's easy.   Trump and Pence do it every time they emit noises from their mouths.

 

                     Personally, I think the real thoughts of the N.Koreans fall into two categories;   Those who genuinely like the group-think structure they're saddled with, and those who secretly yearn to think freely.   I could even go so far as to compare them to Americans; Those who genuinely want Trump to give them direction, and who want to believe all he says. ......and those who are able to think freely.

 

Things are more polarized in N.Korea.   .....or are they?

 

 

 

 

[sirineou]

2 minutes ago, boomerangutang said:

               The N.Korean people are an amazing study in group think.  When in NK, they all act the way they're required to act.   Whether they all think the same way is debatable.   If a survey taker were to ask them, that person would get all the same answers.  Yet people can say things which are different than what they really think.   It's called lying.  It's easy.   Trump and Pence do it every time they emit noises from their mouths.

 

                     Personally, I think the real thoughts of the N.Koreans fall into two categories;   Those who genuinely like the group-think structure they're saddled with, and those who secretly yearn to think freely.   I could even go so far as to compare them to Americans; Those who genuinely want Trump to give them direction, and who want to believe all he says. ......and those who are able to think freely.

 

Things are more polarized in N.Korea.   .....or are they?

 

 

 

 

In another word North Koreans react the same way people all over the world would when found in a similar situation.

[midas]

14 hours ago, Kieran00001 said:

 

If that were the case it would not really make any sense what he said regarding the fact that he was stood surrounded by the military leaders of the US not Israel.

I disagree. Their modus operandi and motive for doing so is far more persuasive than not being included in a news story. In fact if you look at the past strikes  in other places they prefer no publicity

 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/09/17/the-silent-strike

Edited October 9, 2017 by midas

[Morch]

3 minutes ago, sirineou said:

On my previous reply to your post you expressed confusion, unfortunately one can not reply to  a reaction, 

so I wil. try to elaborate and see where your confusion lays. 

I agree that the NK communist system has degenerated to the present totalitarian system, and I hope you will also agree that our capitalist system in its effort to  defend against communism and other systems,  has engaged in what one can only politely term, undesirable behaviours 

It is my contention that both these undesirable behaviours and are a result of these adversarial attitude ,

 and that if the goal was the betterment of humanity rather than the survival of a system , then both systems should be allowed to stand or fail on their own merits  and the better system survive for the benefit of humanity.

But sadly I am afraid this is not within human nature.   

 

It could be argued that "undesirable behaviours" are part and parcel of any real world political system. If so, then the differences between systems would be a matter of degree or excess. Given an informed choice between the USA and NK, most people would choose living under the former's political system, imperfect as it may be.

 

The betterment of humanity, if it applies, relates more to the theoretical formulation, rather than real life application of either system. But even so, the previous comment stands - real life capitalism got it's faults, real life communism was even worse.

 

My confusion was with regard to accepting Kim's regime as being totalitarian rather than communist, yet still pitting it against capitalism. Wouldn't a better comparison be totalitarian vs. democratic systems?

[billd766]

22 hours ago, Morch said:

 

Yeah....and if we've learned anything about Trump's presidency it would be that gap between words and actions. Sorry if I don't buy into this particular instance of scaremongering.

 

It doesn't matter if you buy into it or not.

 

A lot more people than you DO believe that there 2 people in the world at this particular time who DO have control of the nuclear button.

 

KJU knows and understands that if HE pushes his button no matter what will happen to both N and S Korea and neighbouring countries, that he will be dead if he tries and a large part of the korean peninsula will be totally destroyed and perhaps uninhabitable for decades.

 

Trump perhaps has no real idea what will happen if HE pushes his button but IMHO he will be impeached and standing trial at the World court in the Hague.

 

The problem is that they have both painted themselves into a corner with rhetoric and no easy way out and stupidly they are still shouting at each other like schoolboys.

 

 

[sirineou]

3 minutes ago, Morch said:

My confusion was with regard to accepting Kim's regime as being totalitarian rather than communist, yet still pitting it against capitalism. Wouldn't a better comparison be totalitarian vs. democratic systems?

Then your confusion exhibits a profound misunderstanding of my position, and IMO the situation.

[owl sees all]

12 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Trump perhaps has no real idea what will happen if HE pushes his button but IMHO he will be impeached and standing trial at the World court in the Hague.

Just like Bush and lap-dog Blair. Remind me how their trials went!?

 

Al this talk of 'pushing the nuclear button' is nonsense IMO.

 

But I don't hold any truck with Build's post generally.

Edited October 9, 2017 by owl sees all
added more content

[sirineou]

9 minutes ago, Morch said:

Given an informed choice between the USA and NK, most people would choose living under the former's political system, imperfect as it may be.

The lesser of two evils argument 

 

PS: I should had multi-quoted rather than answered  in two separate replies , but then how else to increase my post count LOL

[Morch]

1 minute ago, billd766 said:

 

It doesn't matter if you buy into it or not.

 

A lot more people than you DO believe that there 2 people in the world at this particular time who DO have control of the nuclear button.

 

KJU knows and understands that if HE pushes his button no matter what will happen to both N and S Korea and neighbouring countries, that he will be dead if he tries and a large part of the korean peninsula will be totally destroyed and perhaps uninhabitable for decades.

 

Trump perhaps has no real idea what will happen if HE pushes his button but IMHO he will be impeached and standing trial at the World court in the Hague.

 

The problem is that they have both painted themselves into a corner with rhetoric and no easy way out and stupidly they are still shouting at each other like schoolboys.

 

 

 

I'm not arguing that Trump handling (if it can be called that) of the situation is not irresponsible. Quite the opposite. But then in his short political career he's made so many bogus statements, promises and threats - most of which went nowhere. It's not what I'd call reassuring, but it doesn't offer much support for the notion he follows up on his words.

 

What Kim may or may not know, may or may not do - that's all very well. But Kim may also miscalculate, panic or just act on wrong information. We are aware that some of Trump's higher placed advisors do not share his attitude and views. We have less of an insight  as to whom Kim consults, their positions and what influence they have.

 

Fully agree with your last comment.

[billd766]

5 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Just like Bush and lap-dog Blair. Remind me how their trials went!?

 

Al this talk of 'pushing the nuclear button' is nonsense IMO.

 

I truly hope that you are right and I am wrong.

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, sirineou said:

The lesser of two evils argument 

 

PS: I should had multi-quoted rather than answered  in two separate replies , but then how else to increase my post count LOL

 

I'm not an idealist, or a purist. And I think, when it comes down to it, most people aren't.

There's a difference between political theory and practical application.

 

As for labeling political systems as evil, well...don't know that capitalism, in itself is evil. Same goes for communism. Totalitarian regimes are more likely to fit the bill, though.

[sirineou]

22 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

I'm not an idealist, or a purist. And I think, when it comes down to it, most people aren't.

There's a difference between political theory and practical application.

 

As for labeling political systems as evil, well...don't know that capitalism, in itself is evil. Same goes for communism. Totalitarian regimes are more likely to fit the bill, though.

i agree, that's why I  mentioned in post #167

"But sadly I am afraid this is not within human nature."

as far a labeling systems "Evil" any system that limits human potential is IMO evil.

One can be  an Idealist  and at the same way be pragmatic, IMO  the two are not mutually exclusive Idealism allows one to explore the frontiers   .

Nothing can be achieved until it is imagined.

But pragmatism is a realistic approach .

In other words

A caged Tiger is aware of the cage  and lives within its confines   but does not stop from probing. learning, and looking for a chance to pounce. 

 

Edited October 9, 2017 by sirineou

[Morch]

2 minutes ago, sirineou said:

i agree, that's why I  mentioned in post #167

"But sadly I am afraid this is not within human nature."

as far a labeling systems "Evil" any system that limits human potential is IMO evil.

One can be and an Idealist  and at the same way be pragmatic, IMO  the two are not mutually exclusive Idealism allows one to explore the frontiers   . Nothing can be achieved until it is imagined. But pragmatism is a realistic approach .

In other words

A caged Tiger is aware of the cage  and lives within its confines   but does not stop from probing. learning, and looking for a chance to pounce. 

 

 

Capitalism, as applied in the West (for example), does not prevent citizens from exploring other options or criticizing the existing system. In contrast, real world applications of communism (and obviously, totalitarian regimes) generally do not allow the same, and in the long run, might degrade the capability to imagine alternatives. 

 

 

 

 

[sirineou]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

 

Capitalism, as applied in the West (for example), does not prevent citizens from exploring other options or criticizing the existing system. In contrast, real world applications of communism (and obviously, totalitarian regimes) generally do not allow the same, and in the long run, might degrade the capability to imagine alternatives. 

 

 

 

 

 again the lesser of two evils argument.

I agree that Capitalism as applied in the west is more conducive to creativity compared to Other systems as applied else where, but in it's defencive pasture it does provide limitations

I would liken democracy in the west to Henry Ford's statement concerning the  model T

You can have any color car as long as it's Black